JAPAN: POLITICAL SITUATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R000401420001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 9, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 7, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

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CONFIDENTIAL
Central Intelligence A
Washington. D. C. 20505
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
'7 September 1983
Japan: Political Situation
Prime Minister Nakasone hopes legislative victories in the
current special session of the Diet plus visits by President
Reagan and other foreign leaders will provide him with the
political momentum to call elections in early 1984. His primary
problem is the bribery trial of his principal backer, former
Prime Minister Tanaka. A verdict--which most observers believe
will be, "guilty"--is expected on 12 October.
A Busy Calendar
Nakasone is again demonstrating his political adroitness.
In the current special session of the Diet, Nakasone is pressing
ahead with his top priority administrative reform legislation
that would trim government subsidies and cut the public
payroll.
-- According to several polls, the public strongly backs
this issue as a way to prevent higher taxes.
-- Nakasone has also proposed an income tax cut, effectively
stealing the initiative from the opposition parties,
which planned a confrontation over the issue.
-- If the Prime Minister manages to get even part of his
legislative agenda passed--particularly the. reform
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This memorandum was prepared bg the Office of East Asian Analusis 25X1
EA M 83-10170
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CONFIDENTIAL
bills--both Nakasone and the LDP will benefit in the next
Nakasone probably believes he needs a legislative success to
help offset the effects of a probable guilty verdict in the
Tanaka/Lockheed bribery case. The Japan Socialist Party and
other opposition groups will use the verdict to attack the LDP; a
resolution demanding Tanaka's resignation from the Diet is almost
certain. Given the personal animosity between former Prime
Minister Fukuda--his principal rival in the LDP--and Tanaka, it
is not certain Nakasone can even count on support from all of his
election campaign.
party on the issue.
In the month or so following the Tanaka verdict Nakasone
will host three foreign leaders, West German Chancellor Kohl,
President Reagan, and Chinese Secretary General Hu Yaobang. He
is also planning a visit to China, tentatively scheduled for
January. This unprecedented diplomatic schedule is designed to
divert media attention from the Tanaka verdict and provide
Nakasone with a platform to demonstrate his status as a world
leader. The Prime Minister has used foreign policy for political
benefit in the past. After his successful visit to the ASEAN
countries in May and his performance at the Williamsburg Summit,
popular support for the Nakasone administration soared. The
result was a solid LDP victory in the Upper House elections in
June.
Election Timing
In order for Nakasone to be reelected as LDP president in
November 1984, the Party must first do well in the next general
election.
-- By law, elections for the lower house of the Diet must be
984.
Nakasone is considering a date earlier in
1984.
-- In selecting a date, Nakasone will have to be prepared
for a possible political crisis following the Tanaka
tri al .
Nakasone probably believes the election odds are in his
favor. Nakasone's own standing in the polls continues strong and
the economy is on a slow recovery path. Aside from Tanaka, the
opposition parties have no significant issue
It is not even clear that the opposition parties can make
gains using the Tanaka verdict. Tanaka could resign from the
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Diet voluntarily after the verdict; according to press reports,
70 percent of the Diet believe he will. Tanaka could then run
for re-election in 1984 and, given his popularity in his home
The Prime Minister has managed to calm fears over his
hawkish position on defense by lowering his public profile on
this issue. In line with this, Japanese officials have asked
that Washington take a low key position on defense--particularly
during President Reaaan's visit--to avoid raising public fears
district, win.
again.
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