MEXICAN CORN PRODUCTION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R000401970001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 6, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 12, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

C:C)NF I D~iV`P SAL
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Central Intclii~enc:e A~erxy ~ ~ _~
D1R~CTO.R.~1TE 0~ T~T'i`ELI,iCENCE
12 July 1983
Mexican Corn Production
S urnma`~r
Corn is grown thr..oughout Mexico. The principal growing areas
are the Gulf coast states of Veracruz and Tamaulipas where the
climate is conducive to maize. Corn craps are Iargely rainfed.
There are .two coma crops annually; the principal harvest in the
fa11 and a minor springjsummer crap. After nearZrx,1 self-
sufficiency in 2981, production fe11 aver 3S percent in 1982
because of the severe drought. As a results Mexico .is import.inq
substantial corn volumes to meet basic needs in 1983, because
production is expected to partially recover this year, 1984 .import
deeds wi11 be Zower.
Corn Imparts
The USDA estimates that Mexico will need to import 5 million
metric tons (MT) of corn during 1.983. CONASUPO, which is the
government's corn purchasing agent for subsidized sales through
its own stores, announced its intention to purchase 3.5 million
MT for human consumption. The agricultural attache attributes
This memorandum was requested by the Deputy Secretary of the Department
of Treasury. It was prepared by the Middle ,Amer.ica- 25X1
Caribbean Division, Office of African and Latin Amex.tcan Analysis.
Informa>~~on as of I2 Ju1y 1983 was used in preparation of this paper.
Comments and questions are welcome and srbuld be addressed to Chief, Middle
America-Caribbean Divis 25X1
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the difference to Mexican officials? reluctance to publicize the
magnitude of import needs.
The bulk of corn imports will be No. 2 yellow corn for human
consumption, with 20 to 30 percent No. 3 corn for animal feed.
Based on infarmation from corn product manufacturers, the
agricultural attache believes some of the cheaper No. 3 corn
imports are being diverted for human consumption.
Reporting fram Mexico City indicates CONASUPO contracted for
purchases of 2.2 million metric tons of corn between November
1982 and March 1983, largely for delivery and consumption in
1983. T he following table shows the Bank of Mexico's preliminary
figures for corn imports in the first quarter.
Mexican Corn Im orts (January - March)
(1000 metric tons _ $ million)
1982
volume Value
1983 ~ Percent Change
Volume Value Volume Value
533.6 362.4
~ Mexico City has
use al t e .2 billion in CCC credits allocated for fiscal
year 1983. About 60 percent was used for imports of corn; the
remainder was used primarily for sorghum imports, according to a
USDA source.
1983 Production
The 1983-84 Agricultural Plan, announced in April, calls for
domestic corn production of 13.9 million tons this year. We
believe this figure is overly optimistic because of growing
shartages of fertilizers, certified seed, machinery and other
imported inputs. Although the plan raised the guaranteed
producer price for corn by 81 percent, farmers were reluctant to
expand production with inflation near 100 percent.
The agricu.lt.ural attache's estimates that Mexicans will
produce 11 million metric tans of corn in 1983 if weather
conditions improve. Drought hurt early planting in the central
state of Mexico, but rainfall. has apparently been adequate in the
two principal Gulf coast growing states.
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 Mexican Corn Production {Metric Tons)
1981 lgg2
12,500,000 8,000,000
a USDA estimate
1983a
11,000,000
.Domestic Consumption and Supply'
The USDA is estimating total Mexican corn consumption in
fiscal 1983 at 13 million MT. A report prepared by the`USDA
indicated average per capita consumption of corn for 1979j81 was
177.6 kilos.
The principal end users of corn in Mexico are producers of
corn flour and tortillas. CONASUPO corn sales in 1982 averaged
450,000 metric tons per month or 5.9~ mil,~.ion tons annually. The
agricultural attache estimates that these sales equal about $0
percent of domestic corn consumptions the rest must be purchased
on the private market. CONASUPO's corn reserves were probably
close to one month's supply in the first quarter because of the
shortfall in 1982 production and the farmers holding back
production in anticipation of an increase in the guaranteed
price. Press reports indicated scattered spot shortages in rural
areas. In our judgment, the supply situation has probably eased 25X1
somewhat as corn imports picked up and stocks were released when
the government raised the guaranteed price in April.
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