MEXICAN CORN PRODUCTION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R000401970003-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 6, 2010
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: July 12, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

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V V J
Washington, D. C 20505
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
12 July 1983
Mexican Corn Production
Summary
Corn is grown throughout Mexico. The principal growing areas
are the Gulf coast states of Veracruz and Tamaulipas where the
climate is conducive to maize. Corn crops are largely rainfed.
There are two corn crops annually; the principal harvest in the
fall and a minor spring/summer crop. After nearing self-
sufficiency in 2981, production fell over 35 percent in 1982
because of the severe' drought. As a result, Mexico is importing
substantial corn volumes to meet basic needs in 1983. Because
production is expected to partially recover this year, 1984 import
needs will be lower.
Corn Imports %
The USDA estimates that Mexico will need to import 5 million
metric tons (MT) of corn during 1983. CONASUPO, which is the
government's corn purchasing agent for subsidized sales through
its own stores, announced its intention to purchase 3.5 million
MT for human consumption. The agricultural attache attributes
ON-FILE USDA RELEASE INSTRUCTIONS APPLY
THROUGHOUT TYPESCRIPT
This memorandum was requested by the Deputy Secretary of the Department
of Treasury. It was prepared by the Middle America-
Caribbean Division, Office of African and Latin American Analysis.
Information as of 12 July 1983 was used in preparation of this paper.
Comments and questions are welcome and should be addressed to Chief, Middle
America-Caribbean Division'
ALA-M-83-10112X
25X1
25X1
Duplicate of C05511690:
RIP
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the difference to Mexican officials' reluctance to publicize the
magnitude of import needs.
The bulk of corn imports will be No. 2 yellow corn for human
consumption, with 20 to 30 percent No. 3 corn for animal feed.
Based on information from corn product manufacturers, the
agricultural attache believes some of the cheaper No. 3 corn
imports are being diverted for human consumption.
Reporting from Mexico City indicates CONASUPO contracted for
purchases of 2.2 million metric tons of corn between November
.1982 and March 1983, largely for delivery and consumption in
1983. The following table shows the Bank of Mexico's preliminary
figures for corn imports in the first quarter.
Mexican Corn Imports (January - March)
(1000 metric tons - $ million)
1982 :
1983
Percent Change
Volume Value Volume
Value
Volume Value
362.4
Mexico City has
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used all the $1.2 billion in
year 1983. About 60 percent
CCC
was
credits all
used for im
ocated for fiscal
ports of corn; the
remainder was used primarily
for
sorghum imp
orts, according .to a
USDA source.
1983 Production
The 1983-84 Agricultural Plan, announced in April, calls for
domestic corn production of 13.9 million tons this year. We
believe this figure is overly optimistic because of growing
shortages of fertilizers, certified seed, machinery and other
imported inputs. Although the plan raised the guaranteed
producer price for corn by 81 percent, farmers were reluctant to
expand production with inflation near 100 percent.
The agricultural attache's estimates that Mexicans will
produce 11 million metric tons of corn in 1983 if weather
conditions improve. Drought hurt early planting in the central
state of Mexico, but rainfall has apparently been adequate in the
two principal Gulf coast growing states.
2
CONFIDENTIAL
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 CONFIDENTIAL
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1981
12,500,000
Mexican Corn Production (Metric Tons)
1982 1983a
8,000,000 11,000,000
25X1
a USDA estimate
Domestic Consumption and Supply
The USDA is estimating total Mexican corn consumption in,
fiscal 1983 at 13 million MT. A report prepared by the USDA
indicated average per capita consumption of corn for 1979/81 was
177.6 kilos.
The principal end users of corn in Mexico are producers of
corn flour and tortillas. CONASUPO corn sales in 1982 averaged
450,000 metric tons per month or 5.4 million tons annually. The
agricultural attache estimates that these sales equal about 50
percent of domestic corn consumption; the rest must be purchased
on the private market. CONASUPO's corn reserves were probably
close to one month's supply in the first quarter because of the
shortfall in 1982 production and the farmers holding back
production in anticipation of an increase in the guaranteed
price. Press reports indicated scattered spot shortages in rural 25X1
areas. In our judgment, the supply situation has probably eased
somewhat as corn imports picked up and stocks were released when
the government raised the guaranteed price in April.
3
CONFIDENTIAL
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DDI/ALA/SAD
Deputy Secretary of Treasury
DDI
Executive Director
NIO/LA
NIC/AG
PDB Staff
C/DDI/PES
D/ALA
ALA/PS
ALA Research Director
CPAS/IMC/CB
ALA/SAD
ALA/SAD/R
(12 Jul 83)
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