BRIEFING OF DEPUTY SECRETARY MCNAMAR, DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R000500310001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 11, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 13, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/11: CIA-RDP85T00287R000500310001-4
a
Memorandum for: RECORD
The attached was prepared by
for his briefing with
Deputy Secretary McNamar, Department of
Treasury on 11 January 1983.
Distribution:
1 - NIO/Economics
1 - EURA
4 - IMC/CB
2 - EURA Production
1 EURA/EI
2 - EURA/EI/EI
DDI/EURA/EI/EIF-
13Jan83)
E U R A
Office of European Analysis
Directorate of Intelligence
3/
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/11: CIA-RDP85T00287R000500310001-4
 ADMINISTRATIVE - INTERNAL USE ONLY
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/11: CIA-RDP85T00287R000500310001-4
w
1.3 January 1983
SUBJECT: Briefing of Deputy Secretary McNamar,
Department of Treasury
1. On 11 January 1.983,-I presented Deputy Secretary McNamar
with a briefing on the structure and the capabilities of the
Agency's Linked Policy Impact Model (LPIM). Mr. McNamar had seen
references to the model in the recent DDI publications entitled
"The Global Impact of a Possible Oil Price Decline" and "The LDC-
OECD Economic Link." He requested a briefing through the office
of Doug Mulholland, Special Assistant to the Secretary for
National Security.
2. I discussed the structure of the model, presenting him STAT
with a written description of the model ("The OER Linked Policy
Impact Model"), with a computer printout of the complete model,
and with a listing of variables. I also gave him a copy of a
draft paper entitled "Effects of the Non-OPEC LDC Financial
Dilemma on the OECD." I suggested other ways in which the model
might be useful to the analysis which he hopes to accomplish. In
particular, we discussed using a CIA baseline estimate of world
growth, inflation, and balance of payments as an input to the
model, then simulating the model to produce conditional forecasts
based on different scenarios devised by the Treasury Department.
3. Mr. McNamar asked many questions about the model
structure, its reliability, and its usefulness. He expressed
particular interest in my recent work to append the CIA Mexican STAT
model to the LPIM (which focuses on the developed countries). He
asked about comparable models within and outside the US
government. I mentioned work at the Fed, at OECD, and at the
University of Pennsylvania but I indicated that the LPIM was
probably better suited for his purposes than any other.
4. He said he would review my work and get back in touch
with me. In the meantime, he requested that I provide him with a
set of tables that show the model's output. He also asked me to
review a copy of a Treasury analytical piece called "Oil
Study." Finally, he asked that I provide him with a copy of the
documentation of the OECD econometric model.
Economic Issues Branch
European Issues Division
ADMINISTRATIVE - INTERNAL USE ONLY
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/11: CIA-RDP85T00287R000500310001-4