POLAND: ESTIMATING THE NUMBER OF POLITICAL PRISONERS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R000501830001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 16, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 27, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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27 July 1983
Poland: Estimating the number of Political Prisoners
Estimating the number of political prisoners in
Poland is largely guess work. The regime claims
that there are less than 1,000; the Catholic
Church places it closer to 2,500. We are inclined
to place the number at.. about 2,000, but caution
that this-is a very s t..estimate.
Estimates of the number of political prisoners in Poland
have varied widely, because of differing definitions of a
"political" prisoner and varying assessments of how badly the
government is under-counting. Polish government claims have
generally been based on a narrow definition of what comprises a
politically motivated offense. The latest figures offered by
official and other sources illustrate the discrepancies.
On 21 July, the regime said
about
800 people
qualified
immediate release under the new
prisoners in three categories:
partia
l amnesty.
It placed
--
190
serving prison terms;
--
460
in pre-trial detention;
--
150
on furlough from jail.
for
these
The government gave no information on how many prisoners would be
left in prison after this release.
A recent Polish Church report estimates that before the
amnesty there were 2,400eople in jail.
300 imprisoned for martial law violations;
600. imprisoned for criminal code violationsI.which
the Church categorizes as political offenses (a
Church official admitted that this is a "soft"
number);
This paper was prepared byl East European LJ/~I
Division, Office of European Analysis. It was requested by
Assistant Secretary Richard McCormack, Bureau of Economic and
Business Affairs, Department of State. Comments and questions are
welcome and should be addressed to Jr., Chief, 25X1
East European Division, Office of European Analysis,) 25X1
CONFIDENTIAL
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-- 1,500 awaiting trial (presumably for martial law
violations).
In May a Solidarity underground activist told Western
reporters that about 1,500 people were serving sentences or
awaiting trial for violating martial law regulations.
We had previously estimated that as of 21 July between 700
and 1,200 had been convicted of martial law or associated
offenses, or were in jail awaiting trial on such charges. We are
now inclined to move closer to the Church estimates. The Church
seems to have made a special effort since mid-June to estimate
the number of political prisoners. It has been involved _in
extending aid to the families of many prisoners and probably
arrived at its figure by polling local parish priests nationwide.
-2-
CONFIDENTIAL
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