EASTERN EUROPE'S 1983 GRAIN HARVEST

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R000700010003-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 2, 2010
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: December 9, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

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09 DEC 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: (See Addressees List)
Acting Chief, Strategic Resources Division
Office of Global Issues
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SUBJECT: Eastern Europe's 1983 Grain Harvest
1. The attached memorandum assesses 1983 grain production
in Eastern Europe and the resulting implications for grain trade
and food supplies.
2. This assessment was produced by
Agricultural Assessments Branch Strategic Resources Division,
Office of Global Issues, and Regional East/West
Economics Branch, East European Division, Office of European
Analysis.
3. Comments and questions are welcome and may be addressed to
the Chief, Agricultural Assessments Branch, or to the
Chief, Regional East/West Economic Branch,
Attachment:
Eastern Europe's 1983 Grain
Cro : Outlook and Implications
GI M 83-10280, December 1983
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J-0
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SUBJECT: Eastern Europe's 1983 Grain Harvest
Mr. Gerald A. Range
Deputy Chairman, World Agricultural Outlook Board
Department of Agriculture
Mr. Elmer Klumpp
Special Assistant to the Under Secretary
International Affairs and Commodity Programs
Department of Agriculture
Mr. Richard A. Smith
Administrator, Foreign Agricultural Service
Department of Agriculture
Mr. Donald Novotny
Director, Grain and Feed Division
Foreign Agricultural Service
Department of Agriculture
Mr. Edwin Cissel
Director, Foreign Production Estimates Division
Foreign Agricultural Service
Department of Agriculture
Mr. Keith Severin
Foreign Production Estimates Division
USSR/Eastern Europe
Foreign Agricultural Service
Department of Agriculture
Mr. Harvey Shapiro
DD/Office of East-West Trade
Department of Treasury
Mr. William Griffith
INR/EC/CER
Department of State
Ms. Mary Ann Peters
EUR/EE
Department of State
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?'~JECT: Eastern Europe's 1983 Grain Harvest
dressees List (continued):
Frank Vargo
.S for Europe
nternational Trade Administration
_-epartment of Commerce
. Susanne Lotarski
-;rector, Office of USSR and Eastern Europe
_nternational Trade Administration
.apartment of Commerce
Jay Burgess
_?irector, Eastern European Division
'?f f ice of USSR and Eastern Europe
_nternational Trade Administration
=epartment of Commerce
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I I
SUBJECT: Eastern Europe
OGI/SRD/AAB/1
Distribution: (AttachmE
1 - Each Addressee
1 - D/OGI
1 - DD/OGI
1 - C/SRD/OGI
5 - C/AAR/SRD/OGI
15 - EW/EE/EURA
8 - PS/OGI
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vest 25X1
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I I
Cents! Intdkgenct Agcnc,v
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
Eastern Europe's 1983 Grain Crop: Outlook and Implications
Summary
We estimate Eastern Europe this year will harvest a grain crop
of around 97 million metric tons, the region's second highest crop
ever, but down from last year's record 102-million-ton harvest.
Near record production in the grain importing northern countries--
Poland, Czechoslovakia, and East Germany--will do little to improve
food supplies because imports will remain below the levels of the
recent past. In most southern countries--Bulgaria, Romania, and
Hungary--production shortfalls will lower grain exports at a time
when, these financially hard pressed regimes are attempting to boost
sales to obtain hard currency. We believe retail food prices are
likely to rise in most of the countries of Eastern Europe, and t%-e
food situation will be worse during the coming year in Poland and
Rom..-ira where already depressed meat supplies are expecte; to
worsen.
The impact of the production faZtoff on consumers will only. he
partly blunted by likely grain imports in the 8 to 9-million-ton
range. While this amount would he roughly 1 million more tons than
last year, it is only about half of the average import levels of
the early 1980s. We estimate that the United States will have a 20
to 25 percent share of the East European grain market in
MY 1983/84, near last year's level but a far cry from the
55 percent share that it enjoyed in the late 1970s. The smaller
share can be attributed to the general reluctance of private and
governmental sources in the United States to provide financing for
grain purchases.
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This paper was prepared by I Agricultural
Assessments Branch, Strategic Resources Division, Office of Global 25X1
Issues (AA8/SRD/OGI), and Regional Fast/West Economics 25X1
Branch, East European Division, UjTicle of European Analysis
(EW/EE/EURA). Comments and questions may be addressed to the Chief,25X1
AAB/SRD/OGI or the Chief, EW/EE/EURA
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Eastern Europe's 1983 Grain Crop: Outlook
and Implications
Ever, with a record harvest last year, food consumption in
Eastern Europe suffered because of financial constraints that
forced a sharp decline in the region's net grain imports. Grain
requirements were reduced by slaughtering livestock, reducing the
grain content of feed rations, tightening rationing requirements,
and raising retail food prices. Reaching planned grain
production levels this year is once again out of the question and
even if, as expected, the grain crop is better than average for
the region as a whole it will do little to provide consumers with
more or better food. Indeed, if the crop falls short of current
expectations and exports of food continue to be pushed, cutbacks
in consumption, particularly of meat, as well as further price
increases, could be in the offing.
Grain Production
we expect 1983 grain production in
Eastern Europe to reach some 97.4 million metric tons, the
second-highest crop ever, but short of the 110-million-ton target
for 1983 and below last year's record harvest of 102 million
tons. All of the reduction is expected to occur in the southern
countries,l which were hit hard by drought in May and July. In
contrast, overall favorable weather and a large sown area helped
the chronically grain deficient northern countries, where grain
production is expected to reach near record levels.
Eastern Europe Weather Conditions
Dry weather helped the East European countries
to gather in a record grain harvest in 1982, but
it also set the stage for problems in 1983.
Precipitation last fall was just adequate for
the initial development of winter grains everywhere
except in drought-stricken Poland. Over the winter
and spring, mild temperatures and acceptable soil
moisture levels improved prospects for winter grains
jr the northern countries. The southern countries,
or. the other hand, experienced very light precipitation,
1 The southern countries are Romania, Rulgaria, Hungary, and
Yugoslavia. The northern countries are Poland, Czechoslovakia,
and East Germany. We discuss the two groups separately because
they differ in climatic conditions, crops, and degree of self-
sufficiency in grain production.
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whicy; failed to rechar,e depleted soil moisture
^cr, ~s, a~ severe~u rc. a-e:' potcvt
al u el.ds
~.
;
f tht T?o7,~' ar,d ul aria: z,i rater -zro r crops
n A!au. June rainfall, which saved most winter
rains in the affected areas of Hungary and
ugoslavia, g1'eatly improved the outlook for
orr, in all cr the southern countries. Continued
favorable sun-.rarer weather further boosted corn
prospects in Yugoslavia, Romania, and Bulgaria.
Hot and dry conditions during July and August,
however, dimmed the outlook for Hungary's corn
crop, and for spring grains in Czechoslovakia and
Southern Countries - A Falloff In Production. We expect the
southern countries of Eastern Europe--Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary,
and Yugoslavia--to produce about 55 million tons of grain this
year. The crop, about average for the region but some
5.5 million tons below last year's record output, would have been
larger, except that a drought in May reduced winter grain yields
almost everywhere. In contrast, spring grains, which normally
comprise 60 percent of the grain produced in this part of Eastern
Europe, developed well except in Hungary.
o Severe damage to Romania's winter grain crop in May is
expected to result in a below-average total. grain. output of
17.6 million tons, far short of Bucharest's 25.3-million-ton
goal. Production even at this level is dependent upon the
final outcome of the corn harvest, which made good progress
through most of the summer.
Because of the May drought, Bulgaria has no chance of
achieving the planned production goal of 10.3 million tons,
and a below average grain crop of 7.5 million tons now seems
likely.
Losses from droughts in May and July will probably depress
Hungary's output to an average level. The current crop is
expected to total about 12.9 million tons, a decline from
last year's record of 14.8 million tons and substantially
below the 14.5-million-ton plan for 1983.
Excellent conditions in Yugoslavia since late May have made
an above average harvest of 17 million tons likely. Though
falling short of the estimated 1983 plan of 17.7 million
tons, this year's output would he surpassed only by the
record 17.4-million-ton crop of 1982.
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N,rthr rn Cr)untr1os--1 ear -' cnrr? Grain Okitpt]t.. The northern
countries of Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Last Germany have
experienced generally favorable weather during this crop season, 25X1
and they are headed toward a near record grain harvest of over
42 million tons, the best outcome since 1974. Winter grains,
which comprise 60 percent of production, benefitted from mild
temperatures and ample soil moisture and at the approach of 25X1
harvest they were in good-to-excellent condition. The winter
grain harvest was complicated by early ripening, widespread
lodging and local shortages of harvest machinery, but dry
weather enabled farmers to keep operations going at a steady
pace, holding losses to minimum levels. Some of the region's
spring grains on poorer sandy soils were hurt by drought in July,
but harvest reports indicate that damage was significantly
lighter than had been portrayed earlier in local press
accounts.
We expect 1983 grain production in Poland to reach an above-
average level of 21.6 million tons, overfulfilling the 21.2-
million-ton plan. Farmers increased the sown area over last
year's, and good to excellent yields for winter grains more
than offset minor losses of spring grains from the July
drought.
o It appears that Czechoslovakia will produce 10.8 million
tons of grain in 1983, somewhat less than the 11.0 million
tons planned, but better than last year's output.
o President Honecker announced in October that East Germany
had harvested 10 million tons of grain and called this
result the largest grain harvest in the country's history.
Though production fell short of the 10.3-million-ton plan, 25X1
we estimate that a larger sown area in 1983 was a major I
factor in surpassing the 1982 output. 25X1
Grain Trade
We estimate that during marketing year (MY) 1983/19843
Eastern Europe will import between 8 and 9 million tons of grain,
some 1 million tons more than last year but well below the
2 Lodging describes a condition resulting when, because of rain
and wind, grain stalks bend or break and form a flattened or
tangled mass that is difficult to harvest. It generally occurs
during the later stages of crop development--when the grains are
tallest and weighted down with mature heads--and when plant
growth has been especially lush.
3 1 July 1983 to 30 June 1984.
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16-million-ton average of the early 1980s.4 Our estimate is
based on an assessment of each country's ability to finance
imports as well as its estimated grain requirements. We expect 25X1
the region's grain exports to total 3 to 4 million tons, down
sharply from the 5-million-ton level last year. Despite the
increase in imports and cutback in exports, we estimate total grain
supplies will be roughly 3.4 million tons lower in MY 1983/84 than
last year due to this year's smaller harvest.[ j 25X1
The South - Increasing Import Costs, Declining Export
Revenues. While the southern region as a whole will remain a net
grain exporter, imports are expected to rise substantially and
exports to decline sharply. The decline in exports comes at a
time when the economically hard-pressed regimes are trying to
boost exports for hard currency or to barter for hard currency
goods. Higher world grain prices will only partially offset the
expected decline in export volume.
o Romania is expected to import between 0.8 and 0.9 million
tons of grain in MY 1983/84, a sharp rise over the 320,000
tons imported in MY 1982/83 but some 1.5 to 2.0 million tons
short of its estimated grain import requirements. Romanian
officials reportedly have said that they can buy grain only
if Western suppliers are willing to extend credit or to
accept such items as cement, fertilizer, chemicals, and
textiles in exchange. Unless Romania is able to secure
financing or arrange such barter deals, it will have little
choice but to reduce livestock herds. Despite unfulfilled
domestic needs, we believe Romania will export 1.0 to
1.2 million tons of grain, largely to obtain needed hard
currency or hard currency goods.
Bulgaria, in a turnaround from last year, is expected to 25X1
become a net grain importer in MY 1983/84. Imports will
rise to 400,000 to 500,000 tons--mostly corn--while exports
will plunge to only 50,000 to 100,000 tons versus an
estimated 1.1 million tons last year.
Hungary, although suffering a large decline in grain export
earnings, will remain a net grain exporter, partly because
4 The northern countries--Czechoslovakia, East Germany, and
Poland--are traditionally net grain importers. In contrast the
southern countries as a whole are net grain exporters. Hungary
is the region's only consistent net grain exporter; Bulgaria is
usually a marginal exporter, and Yugoslavia a net importer.
Romania, a net exporter, is sometimes referred to as Eastern
Europe's "grain broker," often exporting and importing large
quantities of grain in the, same year, in order to take advantage
of changing world prices.
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of large carryover stocks from last year's record harvest.
Hungarian officials have already predicted that the
shortfall in this year's grain production could cost as much
as $300 million in lost export earnings.
o Yugoslavia's good corn harvest should enable the country to
increase grain exports to between 1.1 and 1.3 million
tons. A large share of these exports is expected to be
handled through countertrade arrangements, whereby Western
firms will provide Yugoslavia with soybeans and meal
products in exchange for corn. Utilizing US Commodity
Credit Corporation (CCC) guarantees, Belgrade is expected to
import between 490.000 and 500,000 tons of grain, almost
entirely wheat.
The North--Imports Remain Depressed. We expect that this
year's near record harvest in the north will be augmented by
imports of approximately 6.0 to 6.9 million tons. This level of
imports is about on par with last year, but substantially below
the 10.4-million-ton average of MY 1980-83. Total grain supplies
are expected to rise only marginally (300,000 tons) above last
year's level, but they nonetheless will remain helow the average
of the late 1970s.
Poland's imports in MY 1983/84 will probably range between
3.0 and 3.3 million tons, roughly 700,000 tons less than
last year and well short of the amount needed to rebuild the 25X1
livestock herds reduced by distress slaughtering in 1982.
Financing problems will dictate that the bulk of Poland's
grain purchases be made for cash or through barter. To help
replace imports from the West, the USSR is expected to
deliver about 650,000 tons, about 140,000 tons more than it
provided last year.
Czechoslovakia is expected to import between 500,000 and 25X1
600,000 tons of grain in MY 1983/84, about 150,000 tons
below that of last year. Because of reduced harvests in
Romania and Hungary, Prague will likely be forced to
purchase a larger share of its corn from sources requiring
hard currency.
MY 1982/83.
East Cermany's grain imports are estimated between 2.5 and
3.0 million tons, roughly .5 million tons above the level of
The Search for Western Financing
Since the early 1970s, Eastern Europe began relying heavily
upon Western credits to finance grain imports. By and large,
these funds were easy to come by in the detente environment that
prevailed. The situation was altered in 1982 when East-West
political frictions, economic crises, and debt problems in Poland
and Romania cast doubt on the creditworthiness of all of Eastern
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Europe. While East European access to Western credits generally
has tightened, the availability of credit to purchase grain has
been less severely affected. A number of Western governments,
for example, have heen willing to play down the issue of Eastern
Europe's creditworthiness for political reasons and to find
outlets for surplus grain.
o Canada has been particularly aggressive in expanding its
sales to Eastern Europe through the use of government-backed
commercial credits. Officially-backed loans paved the way
for the one-million-ton sale to East Germany in January,
East Berlin's first major purchase from Canada since the
mid-1970s. More recently, the two countries signed a long-
term agreement calling for East German purchases of
one million tons per year in 1984-86 financed by officially
guaranteed credits. Press reports indicate that Canada is
also pursuing talks with Romania on a two-year agreement.
Austria recently sold 200,000 tons of wheat to Poland on the
basis of government-hacked credits and has reportedly been
negotiating a 220,000-ton sale of wheat to East Germany.
Last year Austria sold 285,000 tons of grain to East Germany
(Austria's largest grain sale ever to East Germany), 170,000
tons to Czechoslovakia and 50,000 tons to Yugoslavia. All
sales reportedly included government-backed credits.
Despite France's failure to renew its long-term agreement
with Poland, Paris has continued to provide Warsaw with
short-term government guarantees for financing grain
sales. the credits
were promised before imposition of martin aw, and Paris
will maintain them as long as Poland keeps payments
current. Although concerned about East Germany's
creditworthiness, France reportedly has continued to extend
guarantees for grain shipments but at a lower level than in
previous years.
West Germany apparently has been encouraging domestic
commodity traders to provide credit lines to East Germany.
In contrast to their West European and Canadian
counterparts, US banks and grain traders generally remain
reluctant to extend credits for grain purchases. Further, the
restrictions on Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) credits to
Poland, imposed after martial law was declared in December 1981,
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will continue to sharply limit sales of US grain.5 Prior to the
credit cut off, the United States supplied about half of Poland's
grain imports. We estimate that US grain sales to Eastern Europe
in MY 1983/84 will total only about 1.7 to 2.0 million tons. The
bulk of these sales will go to East Germany, Poland, (on a cash
and limited credit basis), and Yugoslavia (CCC credits). As a
result, the US share of the East European grain market this year
is expected to range from 20 to 25 percent, near last year's
level but well below the 55 percent share it enjoyed in the late
1970s.
Outlook for Food Supplies
On balance East European consumers can expect little
improvement in food supplies despite this year's good harvest.
Indeed, further cutbacks in supplies and increases in retail food
prices may he in the offing as agricultural imports remain
depressed and exports of food continue. Shortfalls in food
supplies will impact most heavily in Poland and Romania, where
meat is already in short supply.
In Poland, although food supplies have improved somewhat
since the first of the year, prospects for the coming months
t
'
an
s good harves
medicate continuing shortages. This year
her with exile^ted imports
..,i.
a
s
oge
should help to ease a shortage of flour and baked goods.
eseeable
f
h
or
e
Nonetheless, rationing is expected to continue in t
future for such items as meat, animal fats, butter, sugar, flour
products, chocolate, and coffee. Warsaw has already announced
that food prices will rise, possibly 10 to 20 percent, as of the
first of the year. Although Warsaw announced earlier this year
that the meat ration in 1983 would go no lower than that of the
second half of 1982, such promises appear unrealistic. Meat
deliveries in 1983 are expected to be some 5 percent or more
below last year. Despite increased meat imports, we estimate
that per capita consumption this year may decline to about
5 Poland has been the region's primary recipient of LIS CCC
export financing programs, receiving roughly $2.6 billion in
credit guarantees and direct credits--more than 80 percent of CCC
financed sales to Eastern Europe--during fiscal years (FY) 1970-
82. Since East Germany, Czechoslovakia, and Bulgaria do not have
most-favored-nation status, they are not eligihle for CCC
financing. Romania is eligible but did not receive any financing
in FY 1983 and although Bucharest has made informal inquiries
into credit availabilities for FY 1984, no formal request has
been made. Hungary and Yugoslavia received $42 million and
$240 million respectively in CCC financing in FY 1983.
Yugoslavia has requested S341 million in CCC financing for
FY 1984.
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55 kilograms or less, roughly 2 kilogram less that last year and
well below the 74 kilogram average of 1980. With livestock herds
down sharply and feed supplies curtailed, no improvement in meat
supplies is expected in 1984.
Among the southern countries, Romania is in the worst
condition. Over the past year and a half, consumers have faced
sharp price increases, long queues, rationing, and shortages of
meat, cheese and butter. In its attempt to gain tighter control
over the supply and distribution of food, the regime has
implemented a number of measures this year. Restrictions on the
sale and resale of privately produced foods in public markets
have been tightened; the private sale of meat has been banned;
and the private transport of foodstuffs has been prohibited.
These steps have only succeeded in reducing the supplies offered
for sale, thus exacerbating shortages.
In East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, and Yugoslavia,
local shortages of meat, dairy products, vegetable oils, citrus,
coffee and chocolate will continue and prospects for additional
increases in food prices (except for East Germany) will make life
uncomfortable, hut we do not expect the situation to become
critical. In Hungary, food supplies are expected to he near
normal hut more costly. Budapest, blaming this year's drought,
recently ordered an immediate increase of lh to 23 percent in the
retail prices of bread, sugar, cooking oil, and other basic
foodstuffs.
Some Issues Ahead
So far the political fall-out from tight food supplies has
remained muffled. On the surface, at least, it appears that the
East European consumers are getting accustomed to long lines,
selective food rationing and price hikes. We do not know,
however, the extent to which their patience is wearing thin. We
believe that the East European governments would move quickly to
shift food supplies from surplus regions or state reserves to 25X1
specific areas if popular rumbling appeared threatening. The
Romanians and the Poles have done this successfully in the
past. Sudden sharp price increases and new or tighter rationing 25X1
requirements are the most serious potential flash-points. Polish
authorities were recently stung by the wave of public criticism
which took place over the reinstitution of Nutter rationing. Two
high level officials in the Ministry of Trade and Services were
fired for their poor handling of the matter. Nonetheless, Warsaw
remains committed to food price hikes next year, and other
regimes are likely to continue raising rices with an eye toward
restraining domestic demand. 25X1
Unless Eastern Europe imports more grain than is now
intended, food supplies in the region will not improve much if at
all. Although most East European governments have pledged to
sharply increase domestic grain production, numerous constraints
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stand in the way of achieving this goal. In addition to
largescale investments for modernization, the East Europeans
would have to initiate institutional reforms designed to overcome
management problems, inadequate incentives and low
productivity. In our view, the requisite measures are not likely
rain
that
t to
g
say
to be taken any time soon. This is no
production in any one year will not increase substantially
nditions
h
.
er co
because of exceptionally good weat
Sustained improvements in food supplies in the next few
years, therefore, will depend largely on Eastern Europe's ability
to boost grain imports. Financing will continue to be the
critical factor in determining the volume and pattern of Eastern 25X1
Europe's agricultural trade. Because of their financial
weakness, most East European countries will have limited leverage
on major exporters and will buy from those suppliers willing to
extend credit or to accept countertrade arrangements. Credit
availability will often assume greater importance than price in ^r",
Although the reduced US presence has given other countries
the opportunity to increase grain sales to Eastern Europe, we
expect that Canada will remain the only major grain exporter to
use government-backed trade credits aggressively to expand its
market share. Other large grain exporters--Australia and 25X1
Argentina--seem reluctant to jump in and fill the trade gap,
either because of concerns over Eastern Europe's creditworthiness
or because of their own inability to extend loans. France will
probably continue to extend some credit on a selective basis, but
Paris appears cautious about financing a major expansion of grain
sales to Eastern Europe. While Austria stands ready to provide
grain credits, it can be only an occasional and minor supplier of
grain to the region. We expect West Germany to continue
backstopping East Germany's grain requirements because of Bonn's
strong interest in supporting the East German economy and
improving political ties. As a net grain importer, however, West
Germany is unlikely to stake out a long-term share of East
Germany's grain market and would probably reduce its role if
25X1
other financing becomes available. 25X1
We believe that US exporters could quickly recoup much of
their lost market share if US commerical and official lenders
e
eased their restrictions on new loans to Eastern Europ
25X1
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25X1
Table 1
Fas
t-ern Europ(' :
rrn i n Productiona
Million Mot_ric
Tons
1977-81
Average
19
77 1978
1979
1980
1
981
1982
1qR3
Eastern Europe
93.8
93
.7 96.2
90.8
96.0
92.1
1.02.0
97.4
0
Southern countries 55.2
55
.3
53.9
0
55.4
19
3
57.4
2
20
54.0
7.5
1
60.5
19.7
55.
17.6
Romania 18.9
18
.6
19.
.
.
.
R
6d
5
7
Bulgaria 8.1
7
.8
7.7
8.5
7.8
8.7
12
A
.
14
9
.
1 2. g
Hungary 12.8
12
.3
13.3
1.2.0
13.8
.
2
.
4
17
0
17
Yugoslavia 15.4
16
.6
13.q
15.6
15.6
15.
.
.
Northern countries 38.6
38
.4
42.3
1
5
35.4
17
3
38.6
18
3
38.1
19.8
41.5
21.2
42.4
21.6
Poland 19.3
Czechoslovakia 10.1
19
10
.4
.3
.
2
11.0
.
q.2
.
10.7
9.4
9
10.3
0
10
10.8
10
0
East Germany 9.2
8
.7
9.8
8.9
9.6
8.
.
.
a Grains include wheat, rye, barley, oats, corn, mixed grains; in the southern countries
rice is also included;i-n Bulgaria, legumes.
CIA estimate.
C CIA esti.mate. Romania announced that total. 1982 grain production was 22.3 million tons,
f orn and 6 5 million tons of wheat. However, dry weather h,nr*
c
t
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ons o
including 12.6 million
grain yields, and much of the barley was chopped for fodder. These factors, in our judgm n
's record is 20.2 million tone.
R
i
oman
a
8luded a crop of 22.3 million tons, considering that
CIA estimate. Although Bulgaria announced 1902 production as 10 million tons, Local
press accounts were silent about the harvest. Weather conditions during the growing
season did not seem nod enough for a crop of that size. Bulgaria's record production is
8.7 million tons.
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Eastern Fur-,)pc: Grain Production Plans
1982 Plan
1983 Plan
Eastern Europe
104.4
110.3
63
7
8
67
.
.
Romania
24.0
25.3
Bulgaria
9.5
10.3
Hungary
14.2
14.5
Yugoslavia
16.0a
17.7a
Northern countries
40.7
Poland
1 9 . 7
21 . 2
Czechoslovakia
11.0
11.0
East Germany
10.0
10.3
a CIA estimate. Yugoslavia announced 1982 and 1983 production
plans for corn and wheat only. Our estimate of the total
production plan consists of the corn and wheat plan, plus
1 million tons for other grains.
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Eastern Europe: (rain Tmportsa
Million Metric Tons
1979/80
19
80/81
198
1 /82
1982/93
1PR3/R4h
17.50
15
.66
12
.36
7.80
7.7-1.n
Southern countries
3.86
3
.82
3
.53
0.95
1.7-2.1
Romania
1.63
2
.15
1
.18
0.32
0.8-0.9
Bulgaria
0.82
0
.85
0
.72
0.33
0.4-0.5
Hungary
0.14
0
.15
0
.18
0.12
n.1-o.2
Yugoslavia
1.27
0
.67
1
.45
0.18
0.4-0.5
Northern countries
13.64
11
.84
8
.83
6.85
6.0-6.9
Poland
7.75
8
.16
4
.71
4.n
3.0-3.3
Czechoslovakia
1.87
0
.67
1
.37
0.65
20
2
0.5-0.6
0
5-3
2
Fast Germany
4.02
3
.01
2
.75
.
.
.
a Marketing year 1 July to 30 June. Import data for r all marketing years, except 198304,
are from the Foreign Agricultural Service, r1SnA.
b CIA's estimate is based upon our projection of the countries' needs and
ability to finance grain purchases.
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Tahle 4
Eastern Europe: Grain Exports"
Mi
llion Met
ric Tons
1979/80 1900/81 1981
/82
19
82/R3
lgn3/84h
Eastern Europe
2.93
4.58 4.
22
5.43
3.14-3.90
Southern countries
3.54
4.11 3.
82
5.03
2.05-3.50
Romania
1.25
1.75 1.
70
1.75
1.00-1.20
Su lgaria
0.60
0.40 0.
79
1.10
0.09-0.1n
Hungary
0.49
1.55 1.
05
1.19
0.00-0.90
Yugoslavia
0.2n
0.41 0.
28
1.nn
l.nn-1.3n
Northern countries
0.39
n.47 0.
40
O.,in
9.2n-0.4n
Poland
0
n,ni; 0.
02
n.n1
n.0-n.05
Czechoslovakia
0.01
n.04 0.
05
0.05
n
n.na-n.n
0
30
n
25
East Germany
0.38
n.37 0.
33
.32
.
.
-
a Marketing year 1 July to 30 June. Expert rlata for all marketing years, except
1 -1
1983/84, are from the Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA.
b CIA estimate.
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Eastern Europe: Estimated Grain Production, Imports and Availability, MY 10R3/44
Million "lntric Tnns
Production Imports Availability Availability Change In Avai1?-i!-Hi1ity
1983 1983/84a 1983/94h 1982/83 1983/84 - 1982/P3
Eastern Europec 97.4 8.35 106.4 109.8
Southern countries 55.0 1.90 57.7 61.4 -3.7
Romania 17.6 0.85 18.5 20.0 -l.,
Bulgaria 7.5 0.45 8.0 8.9 -n.e
Hungary 12.9 0.15 13.A 14.9 -1.3
Yugoslavia 17.0 0.45 17.6 17.6 n
Northern countries 42.4 6.45 48.7 48.4
Poland 21.6 3.15 24.7 25.2
Czechoslovakia 10.8 0.55 11.3 11.0
East Germany 10.0 2.75 12.7 12.2
0.1
-0. 5
0.-
0. 5
a Figures are based on mid-point of our estimated range of imports given in Table 3.
b Available for domestic consumption or export. Availability equals production plus
imports and beginning stocks in Hungary (500,000 tons) and Yugoslavia (100,000 tons).
Because the bulk of the East European grain harvests occurs between 1 July and 31 necemher,
annual production falls within the trade year 1 July and 30 June. The two may he added
to give an approximation of grain availability for a common period--MY 1 July to 30 Jun-.
C Totals may not add due to rounding.
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