LIBYA: QADHAFI'S DOMESTIC & INTERNATIONAL POSITION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R000700160002-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 11, 2010
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: January 17, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/11 :CIA-RDP85T00287R000700160002-8
17 January 1983
LIBYA: Qadhafi's Domestic and International Position
We believe that P~luammar Qadhafi has sought to transform the
social and economic systems of Libya in the hopes of creating an
Arab state capable of rivaling Israel
bJe believe that he is genuinely committed to the spread of Islam
and to the promotion of what he considers the revolutionary
ideals outlined in his Green Book
Although his actions do appear to serve Soviet interests more
often than not, we do not consider Qadhafi a Soviet surrogate
because
-- Qadhafi is fiercely independent and extremely nationalistic
-- and because he considers himself a good muslim caho must
necessarily be uncomfortable with the "godless" Soviets
We do not consider Libya another Cuba--nor do we expect to see
this kind of relationship develop--because
-- Qadhafi has too much money to allow himself to be placed in
a dependent role
D7e do not consider Qadhafi a "madman", although we believe he may
react unpredictably when he is under stress. We believe his
actions are largely consistent with an internal logic which has
been shaped by his Bedouin background and his intellectual
NE SA. _IvI,#~_.~ -10 011
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development as an admirer of Egypt's Nasser during the height of
6~ith these notions in mind, we believe that a number of factors,
both domestic and international, have conspired to place Qadhafi
in an uncertain position at this moment.
-- On the domestic scene, popular acceptance of Qadhafi and
his revolutionary regime has eroded dangerously over the
past several years
-- dissatisfaction is no longer confined to the middle and
upper classes--the main targets of revolutionary reform-
-but has spread within the lower classes as well.
The main reasons are:
-- repression in the form of corruption trials, regular
purges, and increasingly powerful "vigilante"
revolutionary committees
-- political and social programs that offend the muslim
values and the generally comservative nature of the
Libyan people, ie. the conscription of females
-- eradication of private enterprise, confiscation of
property and savings, and poor economic planning
causing regular dislocations in the daily lives of
all Libyans
-- Qadhafi's mistrust and high-handed treatment of the
military has amplified discontent there, particularly in
the officer corps. Coup plotting and assassination
attempts have stepped up since the mid-1970s with two or
-2-
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/11 :CIA-RDP85T00287R000700160002-8