LEBANON: PROSPECTS FOR FIGHTING IN THE ALAYH-SHUF REGION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R000800620001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 20, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 1, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/07/20: CIA-RDP85T00287R000800620001-7
Central Intelligence Agency
Washingon. D. C.20505
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
1 September 1983
Lebanon: Prosects for Fighting in the Alayh-Shuf Region
Summary
Escalating violence is Likely to follow the Israeli
withdrawal from the Alayh-Shuf region this weekend. If the
Gemayel government deploys the Army in the Shuf, it will
encounter stiff Druze resistance and renewed Muslim militia
attacks in West Beirut. The Army probably cannot handle
simultaneous violence in and outside the capital. If Army
deployment is delayed, the Christian Lebanese Forces militia
is Likely to mount unilateral attacks---probably with mixed
results---against entrenched Druze positions. Gemayel will
expect the United States to take the lead in negotiating an
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eventual Army deployment into the mountains.
Continued fighting in West Beirut requires the Army's
resources in the capital. The Eighth, Sixth, and Fourth
Brigades--earmarked for deployment to Alayh and the Shuf--have
been heavily involved in fighting the Druze and Muslim
militias. Without these brigades, the government will be unable
to fill the vacuum left by withdrawing Israeli units. Therefore,
the Government probably will decide to delay the move into the
mountains.
This memorandum was prepared by
the Levant Branch, Arab-Israeli Division, Of,;tce
Year Eastern and South Asian Analysis, at the request of Mr.
Geoffrey Kemp, of the National Security Council Staff.
0;
Information as of the 1 September 1983 was used in preparation of
this paper. Comments and queries are welcome and should be
addressed to Chief, Arab-Israeli Division,
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25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/07/20: CIA-RDP85T00287R000800620001-7
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/07/20: CIA-RDP85T00287R000800620001-7
SECRET
Christian Lebanese Forces militiamen, however, are likely to
enter the Druze areas of the Shuf. Widespread reports today of
Druze massacres of Christian villagers will further incite the
Lebanese Forces against the Druze. Druze resistance to the
Lebanese Forces incursion will be fierce because the Druze
consider the Shuf their heartland and will defend it at all
costs.
If the violence in the capital subsides and the government
sends the Army into the Shuf, the Army probably will be unable to
maintain the peace in the area. Army units will be at a
disadvantage in the rugged terrain, which impedes the movement of
heavy weapons. The Army will be vulnerable to attacks by Druze
fighters using guerrilla tactics in the mountains. Shia Amal
militiamen in West Beirut probably will support the Druze by
attacking Army units remaining in the capital. The Druze aided
the Shia this week by shelling Beirut.
This is a no-win situation for Gemayel. The government's
best hope may lie in retaining control over the greater Beirut
area and ignoring the Shuf for the present. Gemayel will expect
the United States to take the lead in negotiating an eventual
Army deployment into the mountains. A negotiated, peaceful
deployment will remain all but impossible, however, if Amin
Gemayel remains unable to form a national reconciliation
government.
SECRET
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 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/07/20: CIA-RDP85T00287R000800620001-7
SECRET
SUPJECT: Prospects for Fighting in the Alayh Shuf region
NESA M#83-10209
DISTRIBUTION:
EXTERNAL
1 - Kemp (NSC) LDX
INTERNAL
Orig - DDI
1 - Exec Director
1 - DCI/SA/IA
1 - NIO/NESA
1 - NIO/W
1 - C/PES
1 - C/NE
1 - DDO/NE 25X1
1 - PDB Staff
1 - D/CPAS
1 - CPAS/nv1D/cB
1 - CPAS/ILS
1 - D/NESA
2 - NESA/PPS
1 - NESA/AI
1 - NESA/AI/I
3 - NESA AI L
DDI /NESA/AI /L (1Sep83) 25X1
-3-
SECRET
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/07/20: CIA-RDP85T00287R000800620001-7