CANADA AT THE LONDON SUMMIT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R001100090001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 20, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 19, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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R`~~rrtc?ranc~ur~t for:
For Steven Watkins, EUR/CAN Dept. of State,
.requested for inclusion in briefing book
for London Economic Summit.
19 April 1984
Office of European Analysis
~~-'~~ ~ ~l-~~lr~ ~
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Canada at the London Summit
.Canada's Summit position will be conditioned by Prime
Minister Trudeau's imminent retirement,
and the near certain y o a Canadian
e ection in 1984. Trudeau is likely to support most US econo
ic
m
positions, particularly those he thinks will protect the recovery
a
d th
b
n
ere
y enhance his government's reputation for economic
competence. On such political issues as disarmament and acid
rain, however, Trudeau is likely to insist on Canadian positions
d b
l
an
e
ess concerned with maintaining Summit harmony.
Economic recovery is now more rapid in Canada than in most
summit countries, although lagging the United States. The
stronger US recovery and greater success at reducing inflation
are driving Canada's dollar down and interest rates up. In
London, Trudeau will call far coordinated, non-inflationary
growth and better surveillance mechanisms to promote convergence
of inflation rates. If interest rates escalate rapidly before
the Summit, Trudeau is likely to criticize strongly US budget
d
fi
it
d
e
c
s an
monetary policy,
Because of continuing high unemployment, Trude
for discussions of industrial restructurino_
ru eau may propose creating a "data
an o industrial restructuring experiences to be shared in the
n~rn T^,r _._ .. ~T~
Trudeau wants several Williamsburg themes reaffirmed at
London. He probably will urge continued trade liberalization and
endorse a new multilateral trade round for the middle of the
decade. He will emphasize long-term solutions to Third World
debt, rather than simply crisis management, through strengthening
the IDA a
d i
n
ncreasing funding far the World Bank.
Ottawa guardedly backs US space station plans, but is under
public and parliamentary pressure to ensure no Canadian equipment
is used for military purposes, Although Trudeau is eager to
provide Canadian equipment far the enterprise, he may hesitate to
sign on without European and Japanese involvement.
Trudeau probably will try to turn the Summit's political
discussions to the advantage of his Liberal Party, now 12 points
behind in the polls. He almost certainly will seek a strong
cammitment to disarmament in the Summit's final communique, which
would provide a fitting conclusion to his personal peace
initiative and reaffirm the Liberals' traditional commitment to
peace. Trudeau also will raise the issue of acid rain, which
will provide him the opportunity to demonstrate a personal
commitment to environmental purity and assume a position
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Orig - Addressee
1 - DDI
1 - ADDI
1 - OD/EURA
2 - Production Staff
4 - IMC/CB
Z - Branch file
1 - Division file
1 - Author
EURA/WE/BBC
19Apr84 25X1
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