(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R001100460001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: August 11, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 27, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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Chief, British Isles,
Benelux, Canada Branch
EURA/WE
Memorandum for:
This memorandum was prepared at the
request of Dr. Harlan Strauss at ISA. He
probably intends to place it in Secretary
Weinberger's briefing book, to prepare the
Secretary for a meeting with Belgian
Defense Minister Vreven in early August.
Dr. Strauss has asked for the memorandum
today, if possible.
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27 July 1984
MEMORANDUM
Belgium: Martens Soldiers On
Prime Minister Wilfried Martens's Social Christian-Liberal coalition --
in office for over 21/2 years -- has a better than even chance of remaining in
power until its full term ends in 1985. We expect the government to surmount
its next major hurdle, disputes over the 1985 budget. The coalition partners
are haggling over whether there should be more social welfare budget cuts --
as called for by the Liberals -- or tax increases -- as demanded by leftwing
Social Christians. Preliminary discussions are underway, but the cabinet is
unlikely to make final decisions until parliament reconvenes in September.
Even if the budget disputes can be easily resolved, the ever-present
linguistic rivalry between Flemings and Walloons can quickly inflame passions
and put the coalition governments at risk. Flemish and Walloon politicians
are sparring over the election of a Francophone hardliner to the European
Parliament and over what compensation should be provided to the two regions
because of the government's decision to award a jeep contract to a Canadian
firm. The Prime Minister, however, has shown considerable dexterity in
avoiding such economic and linguistic minefields.
Martens seems determined that the present government will last a full
four-year term, in part to give his austerity policies more time to work.
Such longevity is remarkable by recent Belgian standards, and both Social
Christian and Liberal ministers probably hope to benefit at the polls if the
coalition can "stay the course" into 1985. The government's term expires in
November 1985, but due to a quirk in Belgian law calls for elections to be
held by the end of May. The government has proposed amending the constitution
to permit elections to be postponed until the chronological end of its tenure
in November 1985. We expect the proposed change to pass, thus permitting
Martens and his colleagues more flexibility about when to call the next
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The date of elections almost certainly will have a significant impact on
INF decisionmaking. Construction at the Florennes base site is proceeding,
and the first flight of GLCMs is scheduled to become operational in March
1985. (Major INF-related equipment could begin arriving next month.)
Proceeding with INF as discreetly as possible is a vital part of
Belgium's approach, especially given what the Embassy reports as increased
nervousness among Martens's Flemish Social Christians the potential risks of
about too forthright a stand. Martens publicly attributed his party's losses
in the June European Parliamentary elections in part to support for INF
The inclination to temporize among Flemish politicians was undoubtedly
increased by the Dutch dec~ ion to postpone action on INF until late next
year.
Delay of a formal decision until after elections in late 1985, in our
view, entails a number of risks. The current center-right government is much
more likely to make a definitive deployment decision than any other coalition
combination. Any coalition which included the Socialists would present many
more problems for INF. A renewed center-right coalition following elections
is by no means assured although Social Christians and Liberals (who often are
fighting for the same voters, especially in Wallonia) apparently remain
convinced that they have more in common with each other than with the
opposition Socialists. Martens has said that he is nrenarpri to lead such a
group after the next national elections.
A coalition including the Walloon Socialists would face strong pressure
to postpone a deployment decision. We believe that the Walloon Socialists,
Belgium's major opposition party, are likely to acquiesce in INF if the
decision is made by the Social Christians and Liberals. This view was
affirmed by Walloon Socialist leader Spitaels recently to US officials,
although he also warned that concern over INF was increasing among Flemish
politicians and that the Flemish Socialists remain adamantly opposed to
deployment. Given the prospect of increased tension in Flpmich I'snri -17
Christian ranks
it will become
increasingly !mDortant for Mart s and Tindemans to remain in their present
positions.
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Distribution:
Orig - Harlon Strauss, ISA Pentagon
1 - DDI Registry
1 - DDI
1 - ADDI
1 - OD/EURA
2 - Production Staff
4 - IMC/CB
1 - Branch file
1 - Division file
EURA/WE (26Jul84)
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