SOVIET GRAIN CROP PROSPECTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R001200300001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 27, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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2 7 JUL 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: (See Distribution List)
Chief, Strategic Resources Division
Office of Global Issues
SUBJECT: Soviet Grain Crop Prospects
1. The attached memorandum is the fourth in a series of
assessments analyzing crop conditions in the Soviet Union.
Additional memoranda will be issued periodically during the
remainder of
the
season,
especially if crop p
ro
spect
s chang
e
markedly.
25X1
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2. This
as
sessment
was prepared by
Agricultural Asse
ssm
ents
Branch,
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Strategic Res
our
ces Divis
ion, Office of Glob
al
Issue
s.
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3. Comments and questions are welcome and may be addressed
to the Chief, Agricultural Assessments Branch, 25X1
USSR: Below-Average Grain Harvest Likely 25X1
GI M 84-10132, July 1984 25X1
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SUBJECT: Soviet Grain Crop Prospects
OGI/SRD/AAB/
(July 1984)
Distribution:
1 White House Situation Room
1 - Ken Froot, CEA
1 - David Wigg, CEA
1 - Geza Feketekuty, US Special Trade Representative
1 - Ambassador Jack Matlock, NSC
1 - John Lenczowski, NSC
1 - Elmer Klumpp, Agriculture
1 - David Schoonover, Agriculture
1 - Donald Novotny, Agriculture
1 - Keith Severin, Agriculture
1 - James Donald, Agriculture
1 - Charles Hanrahan, Agriculture
1 - Anton Malish, Agriculture
1 - Byron Jackson, Commerce
1 - Andrew Marshall, Defense
1 - Alexander Vershbow, State
1 - Kenneth Yalowitz, State
1 - John Danylyk, State
1 - Douglas Mulholland, Treasury
1 - 1Lt. Larry Waite, HQ/AWS/SYJ
1 - SA/DDCI
1 - Executive Assistant
1 - DDI
1 - DDI/PES
1 - DD/SUVA
1 - SOVA/SE/R
1 - SOVA/EAD/G
1 - NIO/USSR-E
1 - NIO/Econ
1 - CPAS/ISS
1 - D/OGI, DD/OGI
1 - C/ECD/CM
1 - C/SRD
5 - C/SRD/AAB
1 - OGI/EXS/PG/C
8 - OGI/EXS/PG
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USSR: Below-Average Grain Harvest Likely .
Following relatively favorable growing conditions during the
month of June, grain crop prospects in the Soviet Union have
taken another turn for the worse. Since early July, potential
yields have been cut in Kazakhstan by hot, dry, winds and in the
western Ukraine and Belorussia by prolonged, excessive
rainfall. We believe that this damage, combined with the earlier
drought-related problems in the Volga Valley, and the fact that
the area sown to grain is one of the smallest in a decade,
outweigh the generally good-to-excellent outlook elsewhere. As a
result, even with normal weather for the rest of the season,
total Soviet grain production is likely to be only about 190
million tons, 5 million less than last year's estimated output,
and well below the 1976-80 average of 205 million tons.
Regional Crop and Weather Conditions as of Late July
Kazakhstan. Despite a good start, it now appears certain
that Kazakhstan--which annually produces about 11 percent of the
Soviet grain crop--is headed for a below-average harvest this
year. Meteorological data show that about half of the grain crop
in the republic was hit with sukhovey conditions (hot, dry winds)
from 9 to 12 July. Soviet weather stations reported temperatures
as high as 107 degrees Fahrenheit and winds of 10 to 15 knots.
Because the sukhovey occurred during the critical flowering
period,2 as much as 3 million tons of grain may have been lost.
Moreover, additional losses are likely unless soil moisture
reserves--greatly depleted by a combination of the sukhovey and
below-normal rainfall since mid-June--are replenished soon.
Based on our analysis of meteorological data, milder temperatures
and scattered showers should bring some relief over the next few
days.
Ukraine, Belorussia, and Moldavia. Prospects for above-
average grain production in these regions are being threatened by
prolonged, excessive rainfall, particularly in the western
Ukraine, southern Belorussia, and all of Moldavia. Indeed,
Soviet farmers had to resort to hand harvesting because mos
1 Unless stated otherwise, the term "average" refers to the
average for the 1976-80 period.
2 Flowering is the stage of crop development when maximum
potential yields are determined.
GI M 84-10132
July 1984
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t 2bX1
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' I I
fields were too wet for mechanical combining. Although we
believe damage thus far has been minimal, sizable losses in both
grain quantity and quality are in prospect if the fields do not
dry out in the next week or two. Given current weather patterns,
however, little improvement is forecast for at least several
days. At risk is about 15 million tons of grain--nearly one-
third of the combined output of these three republics.
Outside the wet areas, the outlook remains good to
excellent. According to Soviet press reporting on the Ukraine,
harvesting in the republic as a whole was progressing well as of
mid-July, preliminary yields in the Crimea were much better than
a year ago, and the quality of the grain harvested, thus far is
unusually high. In central and northern Belorussia, good crop
stands were observed on recent satellite imagery. Moreover, no
major weather problems are now anticipated for the upcoming
harvest campaign.
Volga Vyatka and Urals Regions. The overall crop outlook
here has brightened somewhat since the beginning of the month,
but even so, grain production probably will be no better than
average. Recently available LANDSAT imagery of the northern
parts of these regions shows a marked improvement in crop vigor-
from early to late June, and above-normal rainfall in July has
maintained soil moisture reserves. By comparison, we judge that
crops in the southern oblasts, namely Orenburg, Mordov, Chuvash,
and Gorkiy, never recovered from damage sustained during the May
drought. This assessment is based largely on satellite imagery
taken this month which shows that grainfields are still under
moderate to severe moisture stress.
In the rest of the grain belt, we believe that the situation
is basically unchanged from a month ago:
? Analysis of post-harvest straw residue on satellite
imagery of the Lower Volga Valley corroborates previous
evidence that the harvest there would be a disaster.
Yields may even set record lows in some areas.
? In Krasnodar Kray, preliminary yield data reported in the
Soviet press confirm our estimate of a good-to-excellent
harvest. The press reports also indicate that grain
quality in the entire North Caucasus is exceptionally
high.
? The continuation of mostly favorable weather during July
in the Baltics, Central, and Northwest Regions augurs
well for a bumper crop there.
? Siberia continues to be headed for a good harvest largely
as a result of above-normal rainfall this month. In
addition, satellite imagery shows that crop growth is
generally uniform and vigorous--often an indicator of
high grain yields.
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outlook for the 1984 Grain Crop
With normal weather for the rest of the year, we believe
that Moscow will harvest a grain crop of only some 190 million
tons, 50 million tons below plan. Because there are about three
months remaining in the season, however, there is still some
uncertainty--mainly on the downside--surrounding this estimate.
For example, the harvest front is just now moving into the
excessively wet areas of the western European USSR. As a result,
it will be at least a week or two before we can determine the
extent, if any, of abnormal harvest losses. The situation in
Kazakhstan is tenuous as well because crops there remain
vulnerable to another bout of hot, dry weather. Should this occur
in August, when the plants are ripening, grain kernels would
shrivel, thereby reducing potential yields even more.
On the other hand, several factors could have a positive
impact on the outcome of the harvest. The Soviet mid-year plan
fulfillment results show that deliveries of fertilizer to farms
were up slightly over last year. Because Siberia and parts of
the northern European USSR have received adequate rainfall thus
far, grain yields in those areas could exceed the bumper levels
already incorporated into our estimate. In addition, we estimate
that the amount of grain growing on land that was previously
fallow is somewhat larger than in recent years. Although
fallowing sacrifices production in the year in which the land is
idled, it usually results in higher, more stable output in
subsequent years as long as the fallowed hectarage is maintained
in the crop rotation schedule.
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Table 1
USSR: Grain Productiona
(Million Tons)
Actual
Estimatedb
1976-80
Average
1981
1982
1983
1984
Total
205.0
158.0
180.0
195.0
190.0
By Republic
RSFSR
113.9
78.0
99.5
112.0
101.0
Ukraine
43.1
38.2
42.0
39.0
44.0
Kazakhstan
27.5
23.8
19.5
25.0
25.5
Other
20.5
18.0
19.0
19.0
19.5
a Measured in bunker weight, that is, gross output from the
combine, which includes excess moisture, unripe and damaged
kernels, weed seeds, and other trash. For comparison with United
States or other countries' grain output, an average discount of
11 percent should be applied.
b The USSR has not published overall grain production or yield
statistics since 1980. Total grain production in 1981 was
unofficially reported at 158 million tons. 25X1
All other figures represent our 25X1
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Damaged Soviet Crops, 9-12 July 1984
Crop Damage
Q Light
Moderate
? Severe
Caspian
Sea
MOSCOW
Crops threatened
' by excessive rainfall
Black Sea
? ORT
CAUCAS't/
Mediterranean Sea
Lebanon
The United States Government has not recognized
the incorporation of Estonia. Latvia, and Lithuania
into the Soviet Union. Other boundary representation
is not necessarily authoritative. -i ' p--
Lake
Balkhash
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