SOVIET GRAIN CROP PROSPECTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R001200510001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 25, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 15, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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MEMORANDUM FOR: (See Distribution List)
Chief, Strategic Resources Division
Office of Global Issues
SUBJECT: Soviet Grain Crop Prospects
1. The attached memorandum is the fifth and last in a
series of typescripts analyzing crop conditions in the Soviet
2. This assessment was prepared by
Agricultural Assessments Branch, Strategic Resources Division,
Office of Global Issues.
3. Comments and questions are welcome and may be addressed
to the Chief, Agricultural Assessments Branch, 25X1
Attachment:
USSR: 1984 Grain Production Estimated at
180 Million Tons
GI M 84-10177, Octo er 1984
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SUBJECT: Soviet'Grain Crop Prospects
OGI/SRD/AAB/
(15 October 84)
Distribution:
1 White House Situation Room
1 - Ken Froot, CEA
1 - David Wigg, CEA
1 - Geza Feketekuty, US Special Trade Representative
1 - Ambassador Jack Matlock, NSC
1 - John Lenczowski, NSC
1 - Elmer Klumpp, Agriculture
1 - David Schoonover, Agriculture
1 - Keith Severin, Agriculture
1 - James Donald, Agriculture
1 - Charles Hanrahan, Agriculture
1 - Anton Malish, Agriculture
1 - Byron Jackson, Commerce
1 - Andrew Marshall, Defense
1 - Alexander Vershbow, State
1 - Kenneth Yalowitz, State
1 - John Danylyk, State
1 - Douglas Mulholland, Treasury
1 - 1Lt. Larry Waite, HQ/AWS/SYJ
1 - SA/DDCI
1 - Executive Assistant
1 - DDI
1 - DDI/PES
1 - DD/SOVA
1 - SOVA/SE
1 - NIO/USSR-EE
1 - NIO/Econ
1 - CPAS/ISS
1 - D/OGI, DD/OGI
1 _ C/ECD/CM
1 - C/SRD
5 - C/SRD/AAB
1 - OGI/EXS/PG/C
8 - OGI/EXS/PG
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USSR 1984 Grain Production Estimated at 180 Million Tons
As of early October, we estimate that the 1984 Soviet grain
crop will total about 180 million tons, 15 million tons less than
last year's estimated output, and 60 million tons below plan.
Our estimate is down 5 million tons from a month ago, due to
downward revisions in yield estimates for Kazakhstan and the
Volga Valley, and in the size of the grain area that we expect to 25X1
be harvested. These reductions are based on analysis of recent
collateral reporting and satellite imagery.
Harvest operations which had slowed-down during August
because of above normal rainfall in Northern European Russia and
West Siberia, benefitted by a spell of relatively dry weather
during the first half of September; however, on 1 October
harvesting lagged 9 million hectares behind the average pace of
the past five years. A delay of this magnitude so late in the
crop season is not likely to be overcome. 25X1
Kazakhstan. We now expect 1984 grain production in
Kazakhstan to be only about 19 million tons, 8.5 million tons
below average and the lowest harvest since the 1975 disaster of
12 million tons. 25X1
The hot, dry weather that plagued much of the republic in
July again hit the northern oblasts in mid-August--during the
critical grain-filling stage--reducing grain yields even
further.
25X1
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press 25X1
reports have described the agricultural conditions in Kazakhstan
as extremely complicated a euphemism which frequently heralds a
harvest shortfall. 25X1
By mid-September about 22 million hectares of grain had been
harvested. Favorable sunny and warm weather is facilitating the
harvest and only minimum harvest losses are expected.
Ukraine, Belorussia, Moldavia, and Baltic. Our analysis of
weather data and satellite imagery continues to indicate that 25X1
these regions will have good to excellent grain crops this
year. In addition, Soviet press reports describe grain yields as 25X1
good in many oblasts of the Ukraine, rich in Moldavia, and
indicate near-record output in Lithuania and Belorussia.
GI M 84-10177
October 1984
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Sunny, dry weather in late August and early September
favored a speedy harvest with minimal losses. Except for corn,
which is reported to be in good condition, the harvest is now
virtually complete in all areas.
Central region and Urals. We expect a slightly above
average grain crop in the Central Region and an average harvest
in the Urals, with good yields in the northern oblasts offset by
a poor harvest in Orenburg.
By the end of September approximately 3 million hectares of
grain (14 percent of the total) remained to be harvested in these
regions. The harvest pace in the northernmost oblasts was
hindered by heavy precipitation.
Volga Valley, Volga Vyatka, and Central Black Earth. In
average years these areas produce about 40 million tons or
20 percent of the total Soviet grain crop. They were hard-hit by
a late spring/early summer drought, and are unlikely to produce
more than 25 million tons. this year. The small amount of post-
harvest straw residues
indicates that most of the area i not recover trom e
drought. We believe that final grain yields will be about 10
ce/ha, 7% lower than we estimated a month ago.
By mid-September harvest operations were practically
completed in all areas, except in the more northern oblasts of
Volga-Vyatka where heavy rains have hindered the harvest and may
cause more than the normal harvest losses.
North Caucasus. Straw-dump analysis and Soviet press reports
of good yields for Krasnodar and Stavropol confirm our estimates
for an above-average grain crop for the region.
As of the first week in October most of the corn had yet to 25X1
be harvested. However, according to
press reports, corn for grain is in good condition. 25X1
Transcaucasus and Central Asian Republics. Favorable
harvest reports by the press in the Central Asian Republics of
Turkmen and Kirgiz, and Azerbajan in the Transcaucasus, are
consistent with our Drediction of above average grain production
in these areas.
Siberia. Analysis of post-harvest straw residue) 25X1
support Soviet press reports of good to 1~1
excellent grain crops for both East and West Siberia. However,
grain crops have been slow maturing because of a cool summer, and
harvest operations have fallen behind the normal pace, increasing
the threat of field abandonment because of early snowfalls.
By the end of September we estimate that there were about
3 million hectares, or one quarter of the Siberian grain areas
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remaining to be,'harvested. 25X1
Outlook for the 1984 grain crop. Our 180 million ton
estimate is predicated on the Soviets successfully harvesting the
remaining 10 million hectares of grain with the minimum of
losses.
Most of the grain remaining to be harvested consists of corn
for grain in the North Caucasus and the Ukraine, and spring
grains in some of the more northern oblasts of European Russia
and Siberia. Some harvest losses due to excessive rains or
premature snowfalls may be incurred in these areas. Average
occurrence of such weather events during the next month should
not change our 180 million ton estimate. On the other hand,
extremely unfavorable harvest conditions in the areas still to be
harvested would lower our present estimate by 5 million tons, at
the most.
4
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Table 1
USSR: Grain Productions
(Million tons)
25X1
Actual
b
1976-80
Estimated
Average
1981
1982
1983
1984
Total
205.0
158.0
180.0
195.0
180.0
By
Republic:
RSFSR
113.9
78.0
99.5
112.0
96.0
Ukraine
43.1
38.2
42.0
39.0
44.0
Kazakhstan
27.5
23.8
19.5
25.0
19.0
Other
20.5
18.0
19.0
19.0
21.0
By
Crop:
Wheat
99.7
81.0
90.0
80.0
78.0
Coars c
95.1
68.0
80.0
102.0
92.0
Other
10.2
9.0
10.0
13.0
10.0
a Measured in bunker weight, that is, gross output from
the combine, which includes excess moisture, unripe and damaged
kernels, weed seeds, and other trash. For comparison with United States
or other countries' grain output, an average discount of 11 percent
should be applied.
b The USSR has not published overall grain production or yield
statistics since 1980. Total grain production in 1981 was unofficially
reported at 158 million tons. Data for Kazakhstan for 1981 and 1982
are official. All other figures represent our estimates.
C Coarse grain comprise rye, barley, oats, corn, and millet.
d Other grains include pulses, buckwheat, and rice.
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