MIDDLE EAST SITUATION REPORT #38 (AS OF 1100 EST, 16 FEBRUARY 1984)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R001300660001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 11, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 16, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/09: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300660001-7
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Middle East Situation Report #38
(as of 1100 EST, 16 February 1984)
LEBANON/SYRIA 25X1
t e Shia Amal militia were consolidating their
positions south of the airport and moving south toward Damur.
Beirut is quiet and the LAF 8th Brigade repulsed last ni ht's
attacks without US Naval gunfire support.
in Damascus by Saudi mediator Hariri, calls for:
e plan, which was to be presented to the Syrians this morning
-- Abrogation of the 17 May Accord.
-- Phased and simultaneous withdrawal of Syrian and Israeli
forces over a 60-90 day period.
-- The establishment of security arrangements in Lebanon in
areas not occupied by Syrian or Israeli forces through
the joint GOL/NSF security committee.
-- Prompt start of talks between GOL, Druze, and Shia
opposition on power sharing.
-- Readiness of Gemayel and Christians to begin talks on
changes in the government's structure.
-- Replacement of the MNF by a UN force.
-- Assurance of the security of southern Lebanon.
Yesterday, Druze leader Junblatt continued to call for
Gemayel's resignation saying the abrogation of the 17 May
agreement would not affect Junblatt's position.
NESA M 84 10077C
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According to press reports,
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soldiers o the 4th Brigade and the rangers had been evacuated
from their positions south of Ad Damur yesterday. About 1,200
remain. Their destination is apparently Juniyah.
The Lebanese Forces militia in the Ad Damur area have
reportedly been harassing Shia soldiers of the 4th Brigade and
insisting that the Brigade leave its equipment behind.
Press reports indicate that the Druze have seized control of
the Lebanese Forces barracks in the town of Al Mushraf, at the
mouth of the Damur River. This move and the departure of the
4th Brigade significantly weakens the Christian Lebanese Forces
militia position in the Kharrub region. Isolated in the Kharrub
and surrounded by the Druze, the Lebanese Forces and the
Christian inhabitants of the area are likely to panic. They will
probably put pressure on Gemavel to reach some accommodation with
IRAN-IRAQ WAR
The current Iranian action probably is an attempt to gain
better tactical positions prior to launching Tehran's
long-awaited major offensive. As of early this week,
Iranian forces on all fronts appear to be continuing
preparations for what promises to be the largest
offensive of the war. We anticipate that Iran's
efforts will center on Mandali and Al Basrah.
PERSIAN GULF
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UAE officials have told our Embassy that the Iranians are
fortifying Larak Island in the Persian Gulf for a military 25X1
operation against shipping or offshore oil installations.
Kuwait has begun stockpiling crude oil in Kuwaiti-owned
facilities in Europe, according to Embassy sources.
-- The move probably reflects Kuwait's desire to establish a
hedge against a temporary closure of the Strait of
Hormuz. Saudi Arabia has also been stockpiling oil in
storage facilities in the Far East and the Caribbean.
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/09: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300660001-7
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/09: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300660001-7
SUBJECT: Middle East Situation Report #38
(As of 1100 EST, 16 Feb 84)
NESA M 84-10077C
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16Feb84)
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/09: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300660001-7