IRAN-IRAQ MILITARY SITUATION REPORT #41 (AS OF 1300 EST, 27 APRIL 1984)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R001301500001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 16, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 27, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central Intelligence Agency
IRAN-IRAQ MILITARY SITUATION REPORT #41
(As of 1300 EST, 27 April 1984)
NOME: This is the final Iran-Iraq military situation Report. Included is a
summary of the current situation in ran-Iraq War. This Situation Report
will be resumed if events warrent.
Persian Gulf
Iraq claimed its navy attacked three ships today between Khark Island and
Bandar e-Khameini. US As detected two Iranian aircraft, probably F-4s, in
the area this morning. The aircraft came within 6 miles of the Kuwaiti
coast.
The super tanker, damaged Wednesday, is no longer on fire or spilling
oil, according to press reports. Firefighters are optimistic about saving
ship and most of its cargo.
Iranian Assembly Speaker Rafsanjani said today that, if the super tanker
was damaged by an Ir i attack, Iran would respond but would not block the
Strait of Hormuz.
Comment: Iraq probably attacked a convoy of cargo ships going to Bandar
e-KhameT today. OSA missile boats were probably used in the attack. The
Iranian aircraft could have been responding to the attack and trying to strike
the OSA boats. Rafsanjani's statement suggests the Iranians may attempt to
attack ships carrgi cargo if Tehran decides the super tanker was
damaged by Iraq.
This report was prepared by the Office of Year Eastern and South Asian
Analysis of the Directorate of Intelligence. Questions may be directed to the
Chief, Iran-Iraq Branch, Persian Gulf Division,
NESA M 84-10179('_
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Military Situation
There was no significant ground activity in the past 24 hours.
Summary of Current.$ituation in the Iran-Iraq War
Iraqi air strikes and flooding on the Al Basrah Front apparently have
derailed Iranian plans for a major offensive, at least temporary. Iran,
however, continues to move units to the Al Basrah Front suggesting that it has
not yet permanently canceled its plans for a major offensive there. Most of
Iran's forces are now concentrated near Al Basrah and any major Iranian attack
in the next month must take place there. Iraq is likely to continue its
attacks on Gulf shipping at a stepped-up pace. Iran may eventually retaliate
against vessels loaded with Iraqi cargo.
Iranian forces may eventually launch attacks across the Shatt al Arab
south of Al Basrah and across the marsh north of the Majnoon Islands. Attacks
in these areas would allow Iran to avoid Iraq's strong defenses east of Al
Basrah. Such attacks would require some Iranian forces to redeploy from their
present positions northeast of Al Basrah, but this could be accomplished
within a few days. If the two Iranian Hawk sites under construction east of
Abadan become operational they could supply adequate air cover for a crossing
of the Shatt. If a bridgehead could be seized on the west bank of the Shatt,
the Iranians could build a pontoon bridge to bring heavy equipment to the
Iraqi shore.
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Iraq has escalated its strikes against Iranian bound cargo and tanker
shipping in the past two months and we expect Iraqi attacks to continue at a
relatively high rate. Iraq claims to have attacked 16 ships in the Persian
Gulf since 24 March. Several ships have been badly damaged and at least one
sunk. One tanker was hit last week near Khark Island, but was only slightly
damaged. The super tanker damaged Wednesday was probably attacked by Iraqi
aircraft. If so, it would be the largest tanker yet hit in the war. We
expect that additional tankers will be damaged and possibily sunk during the
next few weeks. F
A direct Iraqi airstrike on Khark island is unlikely. Khark is not an
easy target. It is well protect by HAWK missiles, anti-aircraft guns, and
Iranian F-4 aircraft out of Bushehr. There is extensive excess ca aczt on
Khark that can be used if some parts of the facility are damaged.
As Iraqi attacks on Iranian oil and cargo shipments become more
successful, the Iranians will choose from several options for retaliation.
Closing the Strait of Hormuz remains a last resort for Iran so as to avoid
having the West involved. More likely are Iranian attacks on ships with cargo
bound for Iraq. Iran also may strike Kuwait, particularly since Iran is aware
of apparent Kuwaiti complicity in earlier Iraqi attacks.
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Distribution:
Copy 1 - Geoffrey Kemp, NSC, Roan 351, ECB
2 - William Martin, NSC, Roan 365, EOB
3 - Roger Robinson, NSC, Roam 373, EOB
4 - Richard Beal, NSC, Roan 303 ECB
5 - Donald Fortier, NSC, Roan 392 BOB
6 - Under Secretary Eagleburger, State, Room 7240
7 - Under Secretary Wallis, State, Roan 7256
8 - Ambassaidor Fairbanks, State, Roam 7511
9 - Assistant Secretary Murphy, NFSA, State, Roan 6242
10 - Deputy Assistant Secretary Placke, State, Roam 6242
11 - Hugh Montgomery, Director/IWState, Roan 6531
12 - George S. Harris, INR/State, Roan 4524A
13 - General Vessey, Chairman/JCS, Roam 2E873 PNT
14 - Admiral Moreau, JCS, Roam 2E782 PNT
15 - General Prillaman, JCS, Roam 2D874 PNT
16 - Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary Koch, ISA/bCD, Roan 4E813 PNT
17 - Deputy Assistant Secretary Tixier, DOD, Roan 4D765 PNT
18 - RAdm John L. Butts, DNI/bM, Roam 5C572
19 - Darnell Whitt, DOD, Roam 4D840 PNT
20 - John Stempel, ISA/bCD, Roam 4D765 PNT
21 - David Tarbell, DOD, Roan 4B938 PNT
22 - LTG Mahaffey, DOD, Roam 3E634 PNT
23 - LTG Gast, DSAA/bCD, Roan 4E841 PNT
24 - General Williams, Director/bIA, Roam 3E258 PNT
25 -
26 -
27 - Roger Pajak, Treasury, Roan 4324 MT
28 - Wynne Janes, Energy, Roam GA257
29 - Deputy Assistant Secretary Boykin, Energy, Roan GA257
30 - Ron Smith, Energy, Roan GA257
31 - DCI
32 - DDCI
33 - EXSec
34 - DCI/SA/IA
35 - EXEC REG
36 - DDI
37 - ADDI
38 - VC/NIC
39 - NIO/W
40 - NIO/GPF
41 - NIO/NFSA
42 - MO/NE/
43-DDO/E
44 - DDO/NE ~ Rn. 6032 Hqs.
45 - DDO/NE
46 - EURA,/EI/SI
47 - SOD (2)
48 - DDS&T/DO (2)
49 - SCIO
50 - C/CSG
51-C/IIS
52 - C/ISS
53 - C/PDB
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54 - C/NID
55-CPES
56 - SOVA,/CSD
57 - OGI/SRD E
58 - D/OGI
59 - C,/oPSCTR
60 - DC/C1PSCPR
61 - D/CPAS
62 - DD/CPAS
63-66 - CPAS/CMD/CS Rn. 7G07 Hqs
67 - C GI/IIC,/`rAB
68-C//PESS
69 - D/ NSA
70 - N A/PPS - 6G02 Hqs
71-74 - MI
cR IG:C/NFSA/PG/I 68117
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