THE SITUATION IN LEBANON

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00353R000100260020-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 30, 2004
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: March 30, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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THE SITUATION IN LEBANON
The leftist Muslim forces under the overall
leadership of Kamal Jumblatt are continuing to drive
against Christian strongholds in Beirut and in the
mountains east of the capital. The direct Syrian-
mediation effort has stalled
The Syrians are now
banking on Fatah chief Yasir Arafat--whose aid to
.,the leftists has been largely responsible for their
recent military success--to persuade Jumblatt to
accept a cease-fire. Syria could increase its
leverage over Arafat by cutting off its military
aid to Fatah, and probably has already threatened
to do so.
Arafat's next move is the key to the military,
situation., His forces have spearheaded major leftist
gains; if he keeps them committed, there is no hope,
for an immediate cease-fire. If Arafat,,orders Fatah
and other independent fedayeen groups to stop aiding
Jumblatt and his leftist allies, renegade army of
ficer Ahmad Khatib and Muslim radical leader Ibrahim
Qulaylat, the leftists would be unable to press " their current military advantage against the Chris-,
tians much further.
The Christian Position
against the Christians yesterday
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long held'by the Christians, probably would..be,lost
ficantly. The commercial and port sections of Beirut,
. definitely if the level of fighting declined signi-'
might be able to hold the bulk of this core :area.'in-
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scale for another several weeks. The Christians
umbrella command, are inferior to them in sup lies','
and military e ui ment.
numbers to the 15,000-20,,000' leftists under.Jupblatt'`s'
Overall, the Christ'ians', though nearly equal''-in
areas--perhaps minus some strongholds for 'a time---
could lead to the steady disintegration of a unified
Christian defense. Eventually, the major. Christian
partition and, as time goes on, Muslim successes
national support, but that would not change their
military position. ?The Muslims would not accept
Christians might resort to a formal declaration of
partition designed to dramatize their claim on inter-
ta.make inroads into the Christian core.area. The
If heavy fighting continues beyond the next
several weeks, the leftists are likely to be able
Syrian-brokered compromise. The Syrian compromise
except Jumblatt--agreed yesterday to support a.
e e is ea ers--
calls for:
--a meeting of the Lebanese parliament to
--an immediate cease-fire;
---election of a new president.by parliament.
amend the constitution;
 I thue spalsoedepend or
he"LLY avily ron eAr'afat's
next move.
,intervention r, ~ WE, 4
Syrian forces generally remain in a high state
of alert, but we have no indications of unusual Syr-
ian or Israeli military activity. The US defense
,attach4 in Damascus saw no evidence yesterday of
Syrian troop movements that. might be related to the
Lebanese situation.
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`Jumblatt is apparently hol rii ng ouF
Beirut, in order to strengthen-his ~~future bargaining''
position. Arafat is unlikely to persuade Jumblatt
to accept a truce until he orders Fatah to halt
.support of, the leftist military operations. We
believe Arafat is moving in this direction in part
because he believes he. shoul a not -i-1- furth _
at ,7 rlauu, and in part because he may anticipate
1"arge=cr-ale Syrian
Arafat's ,immediate interest now probably
- would leave the leftists in a
favorable negotiating position, while avoiding the
"diminution in his own influence that might result.
frnm' fnrthor? ,a; ,....,..~ .----' -
w~ h the Lebanese
leftist leaders to protect hi _ ,
- - s in u11 interests against the rapidly
growing Syrian influence
momentum has
grown in recent weeks, e has provided.
direct military assistance in order to avoid any
accusations. after
~? v~y, 1-11CLL ilere-
mained on the sidelines. ~Nowthat he has achieved;
this goal, he needs to mend fences with Syria, which
is ati
The Question of Syrian Intervention.
At present, the Syrians aresu
? F ~pai; y
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