POPULATION GROWTH IN LATIN AMERICA AND FUTURE TRENDS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00353R000100310005-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 16, 2004
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: August 9, 1976
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2005/01/11 : CIA-RDP85T00353R000100310005-7
CONFIDENTIAL
CI-M 7610146
No. 0752-76
August 9, 1976
SUBJECT: Population Growth in Latin America and Future
Trends
Latin America has experienced a tremendous increase
in population during the last 25 years. This growth con-
trasts sharply with the rate of expansion in North America
and Europe during the same period as well as in Latin
America during the first half of the 20th century. Essen-
tially the increase, which has occurred primarily in urban
areas, is due to a burgeoning birth rate and medical gains
that have increased the life span. Population growth will
cause great difficulty for Latin America during the next
25 years, but the problem may not be insurmountable. Family
planning programs and agricultural improvements may help
Latin Americans to win the race between population growth
and existing food supply.
Rates of Growth
The following tables,
growth-- rates .
understanding Latin American
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Growth of Population in the Latin American Countries during the
Most Recent Intercensal Period
Country
Intercensal
Population (000s)
Increase during
Annual
Period
At
At End
Period
Rate of
Beginning
of Period
Number
Percent
Growth
of Period
(000s)
North America
Costa Rica
1963-1973
1,336
1,761
425
31.8
2.7
Cuba
Dominican
1953-1970
5,829
8,553
2,724
46.7
2.0
Republic
1960-1970
3,047
4,006
959
31.5
2.7
EA Salvador
1961-1971
2,511
3,549
1,038
41.3
3.7
Guatemala
1964-1973
4,285
5,212
927
21.6
2.2
Haiti
1950-1971
3,097
4,315
1,218
39.3
1.6
Honduras
1950-1961
1,369
1,885
516
37.7
3.0
Mexico
1960-1970
34,923
48,225
13,302
38.1
3.4
Nicaragua
1963-1971
1,536
1,895
359
23.4
2.6
Panama
South America
1960-1970
1,076
1,428
352
32.8
3.0
Argentina
1960-1970
20,009
22,364
3,255
16.3
1.4
Bolivia
1900-1950
1,556
2,704
1,148
73.8
1.0
Brazil
1960-1970
70,967
94,509
23,542
33.2
2.9
Chile
1960-1970
7,374
8,853
1,479
20.1
1.8
Colombia
1964-1973
17,482
23,200*
5,718*
32.7*
3.1*
Ecuador
1950-1962
3,203
4,476
1,273
39.8
2.8
Paraguay
1962-1972
1,817
2,329
512
28.2
2.5
Peru
1961-1972
10,365
13,568
3,203
30.9
2.5
Uruguay
1963
-
2,596
-
-
-
Venezuela
1961-1971
7,524
10,722
3,198
42.5
3.8
Population (000s)
Increase, 1950 to 1975
1950
1975
Number
Percent
(000s)
North America
45,500
94,200
48,700
107
Costa Rica
800
2,000
1,200
150
Cuba
5,500
9,200
3,700
-'*
67
Dominican Republic
2,100
4,600
2,500
119
El Salvador
1,900
4,000
2,100
111
Guatemala
2,800
5,500
2,700
96
Haiti
3,100
5,000
1,900
51
Honduras
1,400
2,900
1,500
107
Mexico
26,000
57,000
31,000
119
Nicaragua
1,100
2,300
1,200
109
Panama
800
1,700
900
113
South America
108,800
212,500
103,700
95
Argentina
17,200
25,000
7,800
45
Bolivia
2,700
5,000
2,300
85
Brazil
52,000
108,000
56,000
108
Chile
5,800
10,000
4,200
72
Colombia
11,000
24,200
13,200
120
Ecuador
3,200
7,000
3,800
119
Paraguay
1,300
2,700
1,400
108
Peru
8,500
15,000
6,500
76
Uruguay
2,100
3,100
1,000
48
Venezuela
5,000
12,500
7,500
150
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CONFIDENTIAL
The most noteworthy items are the very high growth
rates registered since 1960 in Venezuela, Mexico, Colombia,
and Brazil. These countries alone have almost two thirds
of the region's population. It should also be noted that
the "low" rate of increase in Argentina and Chile is several
times higher than that of the US (about 0.6 percent per
annum).
In 1950, Latin America's population was divided into
three approximately equal parts--Brazil, the rest of South
America, and the grouping of Panama, Central America, Mexico,
and the three island republics. On an absolute basis, the
population increase in Brazil during the last 25 years has
been responsible for more than a third of the entire growth
in Latin America.
In comparison with population growth in the rest of
the world, in 1900 there was only one Latin American among
every 37 members of the human race. In 1970, this ratio
was one in every ten; and by 1980 it is expected to be one
in nine. The nearly three-percent-per-year population growth
recorded from 1960 to 1970 is almost unprecedented in history.
Moreovei;,current rates of growth are above three percent per
year in Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador,
Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador,
and Venezuela. These very high rates are generally expected
to continue into the next century.
Factors in Population Growth
The key to Latin America's population increase is the
high birth rate and accompanying reduction in death rate.
Immigration once played an important role, but during the
last two decades has been inconsequential. Emigration,
especially by the well-educated or unemployed, has become
important socially and politically but had had little real
effect on the growth rate.
The following table has been prepared from the best
information available to the Inter-American Statistical
Institute. The actual birth rates may even be higher.
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Reported Birth Rates, Death Rates, and Rates of Natural Increase of
Population in the Latin American Countries p e r 1, 0 0 0
Country
Year
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Rate of
Natural Increase
North America
Costa Rica
1972
31.6
5.7
25.9
Cuba
1971
30.3
6.0
24.3
Dominican Republic
'
1970
40.1
6.0
36.1
I
I Salvador
1971
42.1
7.9
34.2
Guatemala
Haiti
1972
42.5
9.4
33.1
Honduras
1970
42.7
8.1
34.7
Mexico
1972
44.6
9.1
35.5
Nicaragua
1971
41.0
7.1
33.9
Panama
South America
1972
34.5
5.7
28.8
Argentina
1968
22.6
9.5
13.1
Bolivia
Brazil
1968
23.6
7.0
16.6
Chile
-
1970
24.6
8.5
16.1
Colombia
1968
31.4
8.5
24.9
Ecuador
1971
38.7
10.1
38.6
Paraguay
1970
33.4
-
_
Peru
1967
32.0
7.6
24.4
Uruguay
1970
22.4
9.2
13.2
Venezuela
1972
38.6
6.6
30.2
Urban Growth
In addition to the high rate of population increase
in Latin America as a whole, a startling redistribution
of population from rural areas to the cities is going on
within all countries of the region. Recent studies of
this phenomenon indicate that approximately two-thirds of
the urban population increase is due to migration from
rural areas. According to UN statistics, by the turn of
the century Latin America will have four cities with over
ten million inhabitants--Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Rio de
Janeiro, and Buenos Aires. Mexico City will be the
largest in the world with over 30 million people.
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CONF IDENTIAL
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CONFIDENTIAL
Brazil is the best example of urban growth. In 1950,
19 million or 36.5 percent of its population was classified
as urban. Between 1950 and 1970 the urban population in-
creased by 33 million, or by 173 percent. At the same time,
the rural population increased by 8 million or only 24 per-
cent. The state of Rio de Janeiro during this 20-year period
registered a 90-percent gain in urban population and Sao
Paulo increased 70 percent. Urban gains in other parts of
the country, especially the northeast, were just as dramatic.
Mexico also experienced spectacular urban growth from
1950 to 1970. In 1950, only 43 percent of the country's
20 million inhabitants were classified as urban. During
the last twenty years, however, the urban population has
increased by 140 percent and the rural population by only
35 percent. As a result of this growth, by 1960 Mexico
had joined Argentina, Chile, and Venezuela as the Latin
American countries having predominantly urban populations.
Argentina's population has continued to concentrate
in the urban confines of Buenos Aires during the past 20
years and the city will have more than ten million people
by 1980. Colombia is experiencing the same kind of popula-
tion concentration, but even more spectacular is its over-
all growth rate. During the 1970s, in fact, Colombia is
almost certain to replace Argentina as the third most
populous of the Latin American countries.
Conclusion
The following table is a projection of what Latin
America's population may be in 1980. The rate of growth
assumed in the statistics is an overall 2.7 percent, which
is probably a conservative assessment for the region.
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Estimates of the Populations and Rates of Growth in 1975 and of the
Populations in 1980 of the Latin American Countries
Country
Rate of Growth
]estimated Populations (000s)
1975
1975
Number
Percent
1980
Number
North America
3.0
94,200
30.7
107,600
Costa Rica
3.2
2,000
0.7
2,300
Cuba
1.8
9,200
3.0
10,100
Dominican Republic
3.0
4,600
1.5
5,200
E:1 Salvador
3.0
4,000
1.3
4,600
Guatemala
3.0
5,500
1.8
6,300
Haiti
2.0
4.
5,000
1.6
5,600
Honduras
3.1
2,900
1.0
3,300
Mexico
3.4
57,000
18.6
65,600
Nicaragua
3.0
2,300
0.7
2,600
Panama
3.2
1,700
0.5
2,000
South America
2.6
212,500
69
3
239
500
Argentina
1.5
25,000
.
8.1
,
26,700
Bolivia
2.7
5,000
1.6
5,600
Brazil
2.7
108,000
35.2
122,000
Chile
2.0
10,000
3.3
11,000
Colombia
3.2
24,200
7.9
28,000
Lcuador
3.3
7,000
2.3
8,100
Paraguay
3.0
2,700
0.9
3
100
Peru
3.1
15,000
4.9
,
17,200
Uruguay
1.2
3,100
1.0
3,300
Venezuela
3.3
12,500
4.1
14
500
Latin America
2.8
306,700
100.0
,
347,100
Latin America has made great strides in public
health education and in applying medical technology dur-
ing the past twenty years. These advances fiave made a signi-
ficant contribution, however, to the population increase.
The plain fact is that Latin America cannot sustain a
population increase of 3 percent per year if its death
rate continues to decline.
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CONFIDENTIAL
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