THE TAN-ZAM RAILROAD: PROGRESS AND POTENTIALS OF THE VEHICLE OF SMOKE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R000600040002-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 15, 2004
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: June 1, 1973
• Content Type: IR

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The Tan-Zam Railroad.- Progress and
Potentials of the Vehicle of Smoke
Secret
CIA/BGI RP 73-2
June 1973
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Introduction
3
Capacity
4
Present Use of the Tan-Zam . . . . . . .
6
Development in Zambia
8
Development in Tanzania . . . . . . . .
9
Local Costs and Chinese Goods . . . . . .
10
Implications for Regional Cooperation . . .
11
Map: Progress and Potential
of the Tan-Zam Railroad Follows Text
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Central Intelligence Agency
Directorate of Intelligence
June 1973
THE TAN-ZAM RAILROAD: PROGRESS AND POTENTIALS
OF THE VEHICLE OF SMOKE *
SUMMARY
1. Construction of the Chinese-financed Tan-Zam
Railroad, now far ahead of schedule, may well be completed
by the end of 1974. The most difficult sections have been
finished, and the remainder presents few major cunstructon
difficulties. Planned annual traffic capacity of 3.5 mil-
lion tons is feasible if the port of Dar es Salaam can
successfully be enlarged or supplemented by other ports.
2. There is a possibility that the already completed
eastern part of the Tan-Zam can be used in conjunction with
truck transport to export Zambian copper formerly shipped
through Rhodesia. It is doubtful if the line can yet handle
heavy axle loads or if the congested harbor at Dar es Salaam
could handle the increased traffic.
3. Completion of the Tan-Zam is expected to facilitate
the development of both agriculture and mineral resources in
Tanzania and Zambia. Preliminary steps have already been
taken to carry out development plans, and the railroad con-
struction work itself has contributed significantly to
economic growth in formerly remote areas.
*Thpp literal translation of the Swahili word for railroad,
Bari la moshi.
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4. Problems in administering the generous Chinese loan
have arisen principally from the difficulty of selling Chinese
consumer goods in Tanzania to defray local construction costs.
Among the adverse effects has been a worsening of relations
with Kenya, whose goods have been replaced, at a time when the
Tan-Zam promises to make Tanzanian membership in the East
African Community more feasible.
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Introduction
5. The Tan-Zam Railroad when completed will connect
the deep-water port of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, with Zambia's
landlocked copperbelt, the source of approximately 20 percent
of the non-Communist world's copper. The project, financed
by the People's Republic of China (PRC), is the largest single
aid project in sub-Saharan Africa. The estimated cost is re-
ported to be $400 million, which the Chinese have agreed to
lend to Tanzania and Zambia on such generous terms that the
loan capital is virtually a gift. Although originally sched-
uled for completion in late 1975 or 1976, work on the railroad
is already a year ahead of schedule and may be finished in 1974.
6. Politics more than economics have dictated the build-
ing of the line. For Zambia the railroad will mean a reduced
dependence on white-ruled southern Africa for handling its
export and import requirements and closer ties with the East
African Community (EAC), a regional organization comprising
Tanzania, Kenya, and Uganda. Zambia adopted a more northward-
looking policy when Rhodesia declared her independence in 1965
and then officially terminated all trade with or through
Rhodesia in January of this year when Salisbury temporarily
closed her borders in protest against incursions by Zambia-
bared guerrillas. Zambia hopes that the Tan-Zam will allow
her eventually to break almost completely with the south.
For both Zambia and Tanzania the railroad could have long-
term economic benefits, possibly opening up several promising
areas to development.
7. Tanzania and Zambia had sought assistance from the
West as early as 1964 for construction of the railroad.
Tanzania took the initiative in seeking Communist aid only
after the International Bank for Reconstruction and Develop-
ment (IBRD), the United States, Great Britain, and Canada
each found the project economically unsound. By committing
herself to financing the railroad the PRC entered the front
rank of foreign aid donors to Africa and became the largest
donor in both Tanzania and Zambia.
Progress
8. Construction of the 571-mile Tanzanian portion of
the railroad is well ahead of schedule with over 430 miles
from the port of Dar es Salaam to Rujewa completed. The
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first section, from Dar es Salaam to Mlimba, in the Kilombero
Valley, was completed in November 1971. Construction of the
most difficult section, which threads its way more than 4,000
feet up the Lumuwe-Kitete and Makumbako Escarpments to Makum-
bako, was completed in December 1972. (Fig. 1) This section --
although only 8. percent of the total , 94 miles -- required the
heaviest engineering work to overcome the difficult features
of rocs, unstable soils, swamps, and steep gradients. Nearly
20 mil'.ion cubic meters of earth was excavated, and construction
of 18 tunnels and 48 bridges was necessary. (Fig. 2) Track-
laying in the final section in Tanzania as of 30 March 1973
had reached a point within 80 miles of Mbeya. The roadbed
ahead of the tracklaying team is being prepared by an advance
construction team that is rapidly completing most of the bridg-
ing and excavation work.
9. Preliminary work on the 584-mile roadbed in Zambia,
which began in October 1971 , is completed. Tracklaying on
the 120-mile link between Kasama and Mpika began when the
rainy season ended in April 1973. Most of the labor force
has been transferred to this section, and three main Chinese-
led construction teams are now in Zambia. Construction camps
have been set up between the Tanzanian border and Kasama in
anticipation of tracklaying teams, which should be well into
Zambia by the end of the year. As of 30 March 1973 there was
no evidence of any further work being done on the final section
from Mpika to Kapiri Mposhi.
10. Major repair facilities including rolling stock
workshops are now under construction in Dar es Salaam and
Mpika. General purpose yards are also being built at several
key points along the line. Major stations are planned for
Dar es Salaam, Mlimba, Makumbako, Mbeya, Nteko, and Kapiri
Mposhi, where the Tan-Zam will join the existing Zambian line.
Capacity
11 . Initial traffic capacity is planned to be 2 million
tons per annum with 9 trains each way daily, later rising to
3.5 million tons with an average of 17 pairs of trains each
day. These tonnages are, however, dependent on planned in-
creases in port capacity: as of 30 March 1973 six of Dar es
Salaam's berths were operational, an additional two had been
completed but lacked cargo-handling facilities, and three more
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Figure 1
Some of the rugged terrain encountered by the Tan-Zam railroad near
the Makumbako escarpment.
Figure 2
One of the 48 bridges in the difficult Mlimba-Makumbako section.
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were under construction. Completion was originally set for
1976, but with the step-up in construction activity following
the closing of the Rhodesian-Zambian border, it could coincide
with the completion of the railroad in late 1974. However,
even these additional facilities would not enable the port to
handle the traffic envisaged when the railroad is fully oper-
ational. Dar es Salaam is presently handling 2 million tons
annually, but only by operating 24 hours a day. Tanzania
recognizes the problem and has plans for further increasing
the size of the port. However, this will necessitate widening
and dredging the relatively narrow harbor channel, and some
experts believe this will be too costly. (Fig. 3) There has
been some discussion of constructing a new port ten miles to
the south.
Present Use of the Tan-Zam
12. Zambia's January 1973 decision not to export her
copper through Rhodesia has raised the question of possible
use of the completed Tanzanian section of the railroad in
conjunction with the Tan-?am Highway. In the past some 27,000
tons of Zambia's monthly 56,000 tons of copper has been carried
via Rhodesian Railways, and the rest has exited by road through
Tanzania and by rail through Angola, 16,000 and 13,000 tons re-
spectively. Zam-Tan Road Services (ZTRS) reportedly has access
to 1,000 trucks and claims that with the Tan-Zam Railroad it
could handle all the copper diverted from Rhodesia.
13. Passenger trains are reportedly running from Dar es
Salaam to within 100 miles of the Zambian border, and freights
have been carrying construction equipment to the railhead since
construction began. However, there is some doubt as to whether
or not the railroad is operational for heavy copper traffic.
As of 1 March 1973 stabilizing and ballasting of the railbed
were reported to be incomplete. There is also no evidence
that Makumbako, the logical transshipment point for the copper,
has the facilities for transferring the ingots from trucks to
railcars nor that there is enough rolling stock available to
carry the projected tonnages. Even if these problems could be
worked out, the cargo-handling facilities at Dar es Salaam are
so overloaded with the transit of material for the railroad
that any further increase in traffic could cause major con-
gestion.
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Figure 3
The port of Dar es Salaam. Its narrow harbor entrance restricts the size
of ships it can accomodate.
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Development in 7ambia
14. For Zambia, the Tan-Zam holds prospects for opening
i!p several new agricultural regions. Since the country has to
import foodstuffs to feed her population, the Zambian Govern-
ment has given agricultural development a high priority, --id
the routing of the railroad near several potentially rich
agricultural areas in the north has provided the impetus for
a program aimed at self-sufficiency by the mid-1970's. How-
ever, past programs have fallen short of expectations and the
goals of the Second National Development Plan (SNDP), launched
in 1972, are high. Any major step toward achieving them will
be notable.
15. The areas surrounding both Mpika and Kasama in
Northern Province have been designated Intensive Development
Zones (I DZ' s) , areas of high agricultural potential in which
government resources will be concentrated on small-scale,
labor-intensive family farming supported by market and ser-
vice cooperatives. Mpika, centrally located in the province,
has a good potential for coffee, corn, and millets; and dairy
farming looks especially promising for Kasama. Both areas
have been earmarked for state tractor units, and a state-run
dairy industry is being established at Kasama. Although not
included in the IDZ's, the area around Iscka, in the extreme
northeast, is considered suitable for cattle ranching, and
along the southern section of the line near Mkushi the pros-
pect- for mixed fanning are good.
16. The exploitation of substantial cope--r and manganese
deposits near Mkushi may be made economically feasible by the
proximity of the Tan-Zam. These deposits have remained un-
tapped because of the expense of building a feeder line from
the main Zambian railroad.
17. Zambia hopes the Tan-Zam will form an axis for de-
velopment, with IDZ's acting as growth poles. Signifficant
shifts in population toward these areas are expected in the
near future. The traditional mode of slash-and-burn agri c~ul-
ture known as chitemene could give way eventually to a more
permanent type of production with emphasis on cash cropping.
(Fig. 4) Already farmers and fishermen in areas near the
railroad construction camps are benefiting from sales of their
surplus foodstuffs to workers. Particularly large numbers of
people are expected to agglomerate around Kasama and Mpika,
where planned development should create a variety of employment
opportunities.
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Development in Tanzania
18. Viewed as a catalyst for development, the Tan-Zam
has an even greater potential for Tanzania than for Zambia.
The Tanzanian Government has set up a number of collective
projects and key stations along the route based on ujamaa
villages, cooperative "self-supporting" settlements somewhat
analogous to the Israeli kibbutzim. The Government hopes that
the railroad, together with these nodes, will stimulate growth
in several promising areas near the route.
19. Agricultural (:xperts are parti cul ary optimistic
about prospects for the Kilombero Valley, which has remained
relatively undeveloped because of poor accessibility. Be-
ginning about 150 miles from Dar es Sal aam, it is an area of
fertile, well-watered soils. Small-holder farmers are being
encouraged to grow cotton, rice, peanuts, and corn for the
market. A government-financed sugar plantation and refinery
complex has been established, and several other large-scale
projects are in the planning stages.
20. In the Southern Highlands the route passes through
the agricultural '.y rich areas of Njombe, Mbeya, and Rungwe
Districts. The rugged terrain in these districts, rising up
to 9,000 feet, catches the moisture-laden southeast monsoon
between Octob.r and April. Rich volcanic loan and sedimentary
soils coupled with the abundant precipitation make this area
particularly promising for agricultural development. Subsis-
tence producers already grow a wide variety of crops including
potatoes, corn, millets, beans, peas, and rice; and pilot cash-
cropping projects have recently been established in several
areas in anticipation of railroad completion. Coffee, pyre-
thrum, tobacco, tea, and wattle are the major market crops,
and local factories process the latter two. Prospects for
wheat farming and sheep and cattle ranching are especially
promi s i"lg; local farmers are presently being encouraged to
grow wheat in addition to their other crops.
21. Perhaps the greatest potential of the Southern
Highlands lies in its mineral wealth, which un-~'Jl now has
remained unexploited because of a lack of economical trans-
portation. At this time the Illima Colliery in Rung-vie, which
supplies the nearby tea factory, is the only coal mine in the
area. However, geologic exploration revea's an estimated re-
serve of 300 million tons of exploitable coal. Two-thirds of
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this is located at the Ketewaka-Mchuchuma field, 100 miles
south of the railroad, and several other fields in the area
contain good quality coal. There are distinct possibilities
for the export of coal both within Africa and overseas.
Tanzanian coal could supply the refineries in Zambia's cop-
perbelt, and inquiries have already been received from India
and Japan about future exports.
22. A deposit of magnetite estimmted at 78 million tons
is located a few miles north of the Ketewaka-Mchuchuma coal-
field at Liganga, and with the advent of the railroad the
possibility of establishing an iron industry is being con-
sidered. Tests reveal a 49 percent iron content, 13 percent
titanium dioxide, and a significant amount of vanadium. The
difficulties of separating the titanium have been overcome by
a Canadian-German process, and the high-priced vanadium, if
extractable, would provide a valuable by-product. However,
the Tanzanian Government feels that the development of an
iron industry at Liganga depends upon the market potential
for steel elsewhere in East Africa. Tanzania's needs in the
foreseeable future are projected at only 30,000 tons per annum.
However, if a steel industry is given perferential treatment
within the East African Community, annual demand could be
100,000 tons.
23. Tanzania hopes the railroad will induce substantial
population shifts. Experience with the Tanzania Central Rail-
way between Dar es Salaam and Kigoma has shown this is likely.
The anticipated economic growth and opening of new markets in
both the Ki loiuher o Valley and the Southern Highlands should
create a large number and variety of employment opportunities.
Indeed, market demand for food crops in the Ifakara area of the
Kilombero Valley has already risen dramatically with the influx
of railroad workers.
Local Costs and Chinese Goods
24. The terms of the $400-million Chinese loan agreement
are complex. It is apparently interest-free and repayable
over a thirty-yeoor period beginning in 1983, but other con-
ditions are uncertain and some are known to have been changed
since the original agreement was signed. Initially, Tanzania
and Zambia agreed to import and resell Chinese-made goods to
help raise funds to defray local costs. However, Tanzanian-
Chinese transactions so far have not generated funds at the
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expected level , and the Chinese have had to provide hard-,
currency assistance to cover local co'; is .
25. The sale of Chinese goods in Tanzania is adversely
affecting relations with Kenya at a ti mc! when any serious
threats to the already shaky East African Community (I=AC)
could break it up. Chinese consumer goods have replaced
Kenyan and other foreign goods in most Tanzanian stores,
usually at a much higher price. However, the local populace
has found their quality not up to par and sales have remained
low. Tanzania has tried to re-export some of these goods to
Western countries, including the United States, but has been
largely unsuccessful.
26. Ironically, the Chinese have been purchasing large
quantities of Japanese and Western-made goods it; Tanzania.
Except for the rail-laying equipment, Japanese and European
hardware is being used in construction of the railroad. Also,
one of the perquisites which each Chinese laborer receives is
permission to buy a Western watch and transistor radio. By
November 1972 more than 28,000 Omega watches had been imported
into the country specifically for the Chinese workers although
Chinese watches were being imported at the same time under the
commodity agreement.
27. Zambians, observing the effects of using Chinese
credits in Tanzania, are concerned about the potential impact
on their economy. As of the beginning of this year, consid-
eration was being given to making direct payments for meeting
some of the local costs. Zambia is in a much better position
to do this than Tanzania since her export earnings in the
past have been far greater than Tanzania's.
Implications for Regional Cooperation
28. Zambia has been negotiating for membership in the
East African Community (EAC) for some time, but little progress
has been made. An efficient low-cost link with Tanzania could
make this longstanding goal practical and provide increased
opportunity for further East African cooperation. Trade be-
tween the two countries has already increased substantially
and will probably continue to grow.
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29. however, there are several problems which nust be
faced before any major steps can be taken. One arises from
the fact that i n the era inined'i at:ely following Rhodesia's
independence Zambia embarked on long-term plans for self-
sufficiency in agriculture and industry. Joining the EAC,
whose nxembers avoid duplication of efforts through the
operation of conrnon services, would obligate Zambia to bring
her development policies in line with those of the Community.
A seco,,d problem steins from the disparity in resources be-
tween Zambia and the three EAC countries. Although she has
the smallest population of the four, Zambia exports more, has
a far more favorable balance of trade, offers paid employment
to more of her people, and has a higher gross national product
than any of the members. A third problem involves the cost
to Zambia of raising her tariffs, which are now lower than
those of the EAC countries.
30. Joint operation of the Tan-Zam will eventually re-
quire a higher level of cooperation than presently exists
between the two countries. Indeed, Zambia's leaders are
uncomfort~;bly aware of the fact that her landlocked situation
places her in a vulnerable position even when it is another
black African nation that lies between her and the sea.
Outlook
31. Barring any unforeseen difficulties, the Tan-Zam
should be fully operational along its entire length sometime
during 1975 and possibly earlier. The most difficult section
through the Southern Highlands is completed and the route
ahead through the rest of Tanzania and the relatively fiat
terrain of northern Zambia should present few construction
problems. Congestion at the port of Dar es Salaam will pre-
vent full use of the railroad unless ways can be found to
increase its capacity or to divert goods to other ports in
Tanzania and Kenya.
32. The railroad should prove to be an economic asset
for both countries. For Zambia, freight rates on the Tan-
Zam should be cheaper per ton-mile than they were on the
meandering Rhodesian rail system to Beira, Mozambique, or
the Benguela Railroad to Lobito, Angola. For Tanzania, the
railroad will mean increased revenues from the transit of
Zambian goods as well as cheaper transport for many of her
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own goods from the interior of the coup try. Addi ti onal ly,
de;e1o;mrmt in previously remote areas of both countries
could -in the long run contribute cons i de rably to growth of
their economies. With repaym^nt: on the loan not scheduled
to begin until 19133, the rail road could conceivably pay for
itself. Perhaps most importantly, the Tan-Zam will greatly
reduce Zambia' vulnerability to sanctions from southern
Africa.
33. There is little likelihood that the PRC will be
able to dominate either Tanzania or Zambia, but some degree
of economic dependence on the PRC that could reduce the
ability of these governments to collaborate with the blest
is possible. The Chinese are expected to remain in both
countries for at least: two years ;, ter the Tan-Zam is fin-
ished since neither country yet has the trained personnel
needed to run the railroad.
34. The success of the railroad, however, will be
somewhat dependent on a continuing amicable political climate
between the two countries. A change in government in either,
although highly unlikely at this time, could adversely affect
their relationship and the joint operation of the Tan-Zam.
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TANZANIA and ZAMBIA
Progress and Potential
of the Tan-Z.1111 Railroad
May 1973
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