(UNTITLED)

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
42
Document Creation Date: 
December 12, 2016
Document Release Date: 
February 12, 2001
Sequence Number: 
69
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
November 16, 1973
Content Type: 
CABLE
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2.pdf1.53 MB
Body: 
-'kpproved For Release 20D41D8114 :'CIA-RDP86700 ~75RD00600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AOE COI ACP TOO TPE MfIO z EER PAGO OF PAGES OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 CLASSIFICATION SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONF: 0 INDEX 0 NO INDEX 0 RETURNTO 0 IPFILES DISSEM BY:-- PER _ # DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: r1LA BI'IEF 073. ITEMS MARKED & HAVE BEEN COORDINATED WITH THE DEPARTMENTS OF STATE AND DEFENSE. 1. ARAB STATES - ISRAEL: THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CEASE-FIRE AGREEMENT BEGAN ON 15 NOVEMBER, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS DEVELOPING. THE FIRST STAGE OF THE PRISONER-OF-WAR EXCHANGE TOOK PLACE WITH THE TRANSFER OF 26 ISRAELI WOUNDED PRISONERS AND OVER 400 EGYPTIANS. ACCORDING TO A PRESS ACCOUNT, EGYPT WAS UNABLE TO ORGANIZE THE REPATRIATION OF A LARGER NUMBER OF ISRAELI PRISONERS. NO ADVERSE ISRAELI REACTION TO CAIRO'S DELAY WAS REPORTED. CONTINGENTS OF THE UNITED NATIONS EMERGENCY FORCE {UNEF} TOOK CONTROL OF THE ISRAELI CHECKPOINTS AT KILOMETERS 101 AND 119. A UNEF PRESS SPOKESMAN CLAIMED THAT THERE ARE NO OTHER ISRAELI CHECKPOINTS ON THE CAIRO-SUEZ ROAD. TRUCKS CARRYING RELIEF SUP- PLIES TO SUEZ CITY PASSED THROUGH THE CHECKPOINT AT Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AGE COI ACP TOO TPE MRO OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 CLASSIFICATION SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONF: INFO: FILE KILOMETER 101 ON 15 NOVEMBER. AN INTERNATIONAL RED CROSS 0 INDEX 0 NOINOEX 0 RETURN TO 0 IP FILES SPOKESMAN HAS ALSO ANNOUNCED THAT THE EVACUATION OF MORE THAN 1,000 SICK AND WOUNDED EGYPTIAN CIVILIANS FROM SUEZ CITY WILL BEGIN ON 16 "IOVEMBER. ACCORDI-SIG-4-O-P-RESS._REP0RTS -- A?-bI--DEFENSE MINISTER D-A-Y-AN--S-AID--THAT--TEI AWTU HAD MADE ^FAR -@FACHTNG.^. PROP-OS At-S_-T 4-- -A. A s c U SI N C-L{}D-N.6-- A - E--Of- - PR I S Of4tR S' AN-D---4F F FD TO -1- , D--E-IiI-n- -IANS_ FROM NEWt*--C-AP-T:11RE4-"E-AS---9N? THE GO'LAi4'?HE-1GH1'S TO RETURN TO THFTR HOMFC MF; AU"IL".-I.SRgELI -FORfl&N-_MIN.I.ST.ER...E0 AN AND S EER E z~ v r c nl ~- Q w I I ;,'ri E-Iifi'7~T E`UN QYtt D- A--SfiE E I-A~__UQI N.Y O. EGYPTIANS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN SATISFIED WITH THE EGYPTIAN-SRAELI'DECISION OF WEDNESDAY TO PROCEED WITH THE IMPLEMENTATION OF FOUR ELEMENTS OF THE SIX- POINT AGREEMENT OF 11 NOVEMBER. THE NEW, BUT RESTRAINED OPTIMISM ENDS A PERIOD OF GLOOM AND FRUSTRATION OVER WHAT DATE: ORIG: UNIT:, EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AGE COI ACP TOG TPE MRO OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 ? SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM ME94AGE HANDLING INDICATOR DATE-TIME GROUP ~ryCONF: ~7 0 INDEX 0 NOINDEX 0 RETURN TO 0 IP FILES EGYPTIANS CONSIDERED ISRAELI OBSTRUCTIONISM AND A BREAKDOWN OF NEGOTIATIONS. R - ' . ` //THE US INTERESTS SECTION BELIEVES THAT//THERE IS NO REAL CHALLENGE TO SADAT'S LEADERSHIP AND//REPORTS THAT//HIS POPULARITY APPEARS TO BE HIGH. SOME UN- HAPPINESS EXISTS AMONG UNIVERSITY STUDENTS, AND THERE IS MUTTERING BY VOUNGER OFFICERS, WHO COMPLAIN THAT THE CEASE-FIRE WAS ENTERED INTO FOR POLITICAL, RATHER THAN MILITARY REASONS. NEVERTHELESS, EGYPT APPEARS READY TO GIVE SADAT'S POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC EF- FORTS A CHANCE TO SUCCEED. RADIO TRIPOLI ON 15 NOVEMBER CARRIED WHAT WAS DE- SCRIBED AS A CABLE SENT BY PRESIDENT QADHAFI TO PRESIDENT SADAT'DEALING WITH THE ARAB-ISRAELI WAR AND ITS AFTERMATH. QADHAFI'S MESSAGE BITTERLY CON- DEMNED SADAT'S ACCEPTANCE OF THE CEASE-FIRE; THE. WAR, QADHAFI SAID, SHOULD HAVE BEEN CONTINUED "EVEN IF IT DEVELOPED INTO HAND-TO-HAND FIGHTING." DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AGE COI ACP TOO TPE MRO OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM PER THE COMMUNIQUE BISSUED ON 15 NOVEMBER FOLLOWING THE CONF: INFO: FILE ^ INDEX 11 NO INDEX ^ RLTURN TO 0 IPPILES TITO-BREZHNEV TALKS IN KIEV BROKE NO NEW GROUND ON THE MIDDLE EAST. BOTH LEADERS RECOGNIZED THE IMPORTANCE OF OBTAINING A MIDPDLE EAST SETTLEMENT AND REAFFIRMED THEIR READINESS TO MAKE EFFORTS IN THAT DIRECTION. THE COMMUNIQUE AC- CUSED ISRAEL OF "CRUDE FLOUTING" OF THE UN CEASE-FIRE RESOLUTIONS AND NOTED THE "DANGEROUS CONSEQUENCES" OF ISRAEL'S "ADVENTUROUS ACTIONS." MEANWHILE, IN MOSCOW, PREMIER KOSYGIN TOLD A GUINEAN DELEGATION THAT THE SOVIETS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE "UTMOST ASSISTANCE" TO IMPLEMENT UN RESOLUTIONS ON THE MIDDLE EAST. PRAVDA ALSO EMPHASIZED MOSCOW'S CONTINUING ROLE IN ACHIEVING A MIDDLE EAST SETTLEMENT.// THE SOVIET WEEKLY NEW TIMES TOUCHED ON THE SENSITIVE SUBJECT OF ARAB FINANCIAL HOLDINGS IN THE WEST BY NOTING THAT SUBSTAN- TIAL SUMS ARE HELD IN US AND WEST EUROPEAN BANKS. IT SAID "IF THE ARABS WITHDREW ONLY HALF OF THEIR INVEST- MENTS, IT WOULD LEAD TO A SERIOUS UPHEAVAL OF THE Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 3 4 T 9 U T 0 INDEX 0 NO INDEX O RETIIRNTO 0 IPFILES FINANCES OF MANY WEST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES." THE US DISSEM BY: PER WAS NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN THIS REGARD. ALTHOUGH MOSCOW HAS ENDORSED THE USE OF ARAB OIL, IT HAS NOT MADE SUCH EXPLICIT REFERENCE TO THE SIGNIFICANCE OF ARAB FINANCIAL RESERVES.// //THE FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTRY HAS REJECTED THE INITIAL DRAFT OF THE EC'S PROPOSED JOINT DEMARCHE TO THE ARABS. PRESUMABLY PARIS OBJECTED TO THE FIRST PARAGRAPH OF THE PROPOSED TEXT, WHICH NOTED THAT "RECENT MEASURES TAKEN BY ARAB STATES ARE OF SUCH A NATURE AS TO AFFECT THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY--AND CER- TAIN OF ITS MEMBERS IN PARTICULAR--TO DISTURB PUBLIC OPINION, AND TO HAVE A NEGATIVE EFFECT ON EUROPEAN- ARAB RELATIONS." THE DRAFT WILL PROBABLY BE REVIEWED AGAIN, AND MAY BE SOFTENED, AT THE EC FOREIGN MINIS- TERS' MEETING SCHEDULED FOR 20 NOVEMBER IN COPENHAGEN.// FURTHER PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE AT THE UN IN ASSEMBLING THE PEACEKEEPING FORCE. T-IE UN EMERGENCY Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY COI ACP TOO TPE MRD OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CFNTER USE ONLY AGE COI ACP TOI: TPE MRO 2 CONF: INFO: FILE 0 INDEX 0 NO INDEX O REIURNTO 0 IPFILES FORCE NOW HAS APPROXIMATELY 2,200 TROOPS IN THE MID- DLE EAST AND ENOUGH PLEDGES TO BRING IT CLOSE TO THE 71000-MAN GOAL. NEGOTIATIONS HAVE ALSO REACHED TENTA- TIVE AGREEMENT ON A SPECIAL ASSESSMENT SCALE FOR THE FINANCING OF THE EMERGENCY FORCE. UNEF, HOWEVER, IS STILL WITHOUT ADEQUATE SUPPLIES OR LOGISTIC SUPPORT FOR ITS RAPIDLY GROWING FORCES. {SECRET} &2. SYRIA: INTENSE EFFORTS ARE UNDER WAY TO RE- STORE SYRIA'S ELECTRIC POWER CAPACITY, ROUGHLY HALF OF WHICH WAS KNOCKED OUT BY ISRAELI AIR STRIKES. PRIORITY HAS APPARENTLY BEEN ASSIGNED TO REPAIRING THE CZECH-BUILT POWERPLANT AT QATTINAH, THE COUNTRY'S LARGEST POWER FACILITY. THIS PLANT SERVES THE IM- PORTANT AREAS OF HIMS AND DAMASCUS. CZECH SPECIAL- ISTS HAVE ARRIVED AT QATTINAH IN RESPONSE TO SYRIAN APPEALS, AND DAMASCUS CLAIMS THAT THE PLANT WILL BE FUNCTIONING BY ABOUT 18 NOVEMBER, ALTHOUGH PROBABLY AT PARTIAL CAPACITY. PENDING REPAIR OF ITS MAJOR DATE : ORIG: UNIT: EXT: PER # Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AOE COI ACP TOO TPE MRO OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONF: INFO: FILE 0 INDEX L NO INDEX 0 NETURNTO 0 IP FILES PLANTS, SYRIA HAS URGENTLY REQUESTED BOTH MOBILE AND DISSEM BY:r._____?_,_ PER # STATIONARY DIESEL GENERATORS FROM CZECHOSLOVAKIA AND EAST GERMANY. {SECRET} 3. SAUDI ARABIA: MOSCOW'S EFFUSIVE PRAISE OF KING FAYSAL'S CONGRATULATORY MESSAGE ON THE OCCASION OF THE ANNIVERSARY OF THE OCTOBER REVOLUTION--THE FIRST SUCH MESSAGE EVER FROM FAYSAL--IS NOT LIKELY TO SOFTEN RIYADH'S BASICALLY HOSTILE VIEW OF THE SOVIET UNION. THE UNATTRIBUTED COMMENTARY, CARRIED ON MOSCOW RADIO TO THE ARAB WORLD ON 14 NOVEMBER, EXPRESSED THE HOPE THAT THE "FRIENDLY MESSAGE" FROM THE SAUDI MONARCH WOULD HELP TO "CONSOLIDATE ARAB-SOVIET RELATIONS." //THE TIMING OF FAYSAL'S MESSAGE, COINCIDING WITH SECRETARY KISSINGER`S VISIT TO SAUDI ARABIA LAST WEEK, SUGGESTS THAT IT WAS INTENDED MORE AS A JIBE AT THE UNITED STATES THAN A SAUDI INITIATIVE TO DEFROST SAUDI-SOVIET RELATIONS//DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE MIDDLE 'EAST WAR, THERE WERE A FE!J REPORTS INDICATING THE SAUDIS WERE CONSIDERING THE ESTABLISHMENT OF DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH THE USSR, BUT THERE HAVE BEEN NO SUCH REPORTS SINCE THE DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AOE COI ACP TOG TFII MRO SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONF: INFO: FILE 0 INDEX O NOINDE!' 0 RETURNTO 0 IP FILES DATE: ORIG: PAGE OF PAGES CEASE-FIRE. SOVIET SUPPORT OF THE ARABS DURING THE WAR IS UNILIKELY TO HAVE MODIFIED FAYSAL'S VIEW THAT MARXISM AND ZIONISM ARE TWIN THREADS OF THE SAME CONSPIRACY. {CONFIDENTIAL} 4. MOSCOW HAS ANNOUNCED THAT A PARTY-GOVERNMENT DELEGATION FROM THE NEWLY PROCLAIMED REPUBLIC OF GUINEA-BISSAU {PORTUGUESE GUINEA} WILL ARRIVE IN MOSCOW ON AN "OFFICIAL" VISIT ON 19 NOVEMBER. THE DELEGATION WILL BE LED BY LUIS CABRAL, LEADER OF THE INSURGENT GROUP THAT HAS BEEN CHALLENGING PORTUGUESE CONTROL AND HEAD OF THE NEW GOVERNMENT. MOSCOW RECOGNIZED THE REBEL GOVERNMENT ON 1 OCTOBER, A FEW DAYS AFTER IT PROCLAIMED INDEPENDENCE. THE VISIT WILL GIVE MOSCOW AN OPPORTUNITY TO DISPLAY ITS ANTI-IMPERIALIST CREDENTIALS AND DEMONSTRATE THAT DETENTE HAS NOT CAUSED IT TO LOSE ITS REVOLUTION- ARY FERVOR. THE USSR HAS EXPRESSED ITS WILLINGNESS TO ESTABLISH DIPLOMATIC TIES WITH THE NEW REPUBLIC, AND THE VISIT MAY BE THE OCCASION FOR AN ANNOUNCE- UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY DOE col ACP TOG OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM R O I T 2 II I _~ N O 3 e 9 0 INDEX 0 NO INDEX 0 RPTURNTO 0 IPPILES MENT ON THIS SUBJECT. IN ADDITION, MILITARY AID WILL PROBABLY BE DISCUSSED. THE USSR IS THE LARGEST SOURCE OF MILITARY EQUIPMENT FOR THE INSURGENTS. {CONFIDENTIAL} E-2 IMPDETH DATE: 16 0 ORIG: UNIT: OCI/PRES EXT: 7562 DISSEM BV:___ PER i# Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AGE COI ACP TOO TPE MRO SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONF: INFO: FILE 0 INDEX 0 NO INDEX O RETURNTO 0 IP FILES EAST ASIA BRIEF 1173. 1 4 7 I y e ~ E S 9 PER # 1. CHINA: CHINA IS DEMONSTRATING CONCERN OVER RISING TENSIONS IN PAKISTAN, AFGHANISTAN, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IRAN. THE NEW DAOUD GOVERNMENT'S SUPPORT FOR AN INDEPENDENT STATE OF PUSHTUN HAS STRAINED AFGHAN RELATIONS WITH PAKISTAN, AND DAOUD'S ENCOURAGEMENT OF DISSI- DENT BALUCHI TRIBESMEN HAS CAUSED TROUBLE WITH IRAN. AS A RESULT OF RECENT BORDER SKIRMISHING, BOTH AFGHANISTAN AND IRAN HAVE REINFORCED THEIR FORCES ON THE AFGHAN-IRANIAN FRONTIER. PAKISTAN HAS MOVED REGULAR TROOPS TO THE BORDER AND HAS'ALERTED ITS AIR FORCE/ KABUL REPORTEDLY HAS ALSO INCREASED ITS MILITARY PREPAREDNESS. CHINA HAS CLOSE TIES WITH PAKISTAN AND A WARMI1G FRIENDSHIP WITH TEHRAN. PEKING MADE STRONG COMMITMENTS TO PAKISTANI TERRITORIAL IN- TEGRITY FOLLOWING PAKISTAN'S DISMEMBERMENT IN LATE 1971, IN PART TO DISCOURAGE EXTERNAL SUPPORT FOR TRIBAL SEPARATISTS. CHINESE LEADERS APPEAR TO BE CONVINCED THAT TENSIONS IN THE RE- GION ARE A DIRECT RESULT OF AN AGGRESSIVE SOVIET ATTEMPT TO IMPROVE MOSCOW'S STRATEGIC POSITION IN SOUTH ASIA. THE CHINESE HAVE CATA- L0G1JED THESE SOVIET SINS TO A LONG LIST OF FOREIGN OFFICIALS. CHINESE DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY Af.E COI ACP TOO TPE MRO SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM MESSAGE HANDLING INDICATOR DATE-TIME GROUP CITE MESSAGE REFERENCE NUMBER CONF: INFO: FILE a INDEX n ! 1 ran wnrtv PEKING MAY WELL HAVE PRI'ItATELY WELCOMED THE ENTRY OF A US NAVAL TASK DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: NEERED THE COUP IN AFGHANISTAN THIS SUMMER, AND THAT THEY ACTIVELY SUPPORT SEPARATIST OPERATIONS. CHOU EN-LAI REPORTEDLY WENT SO-FAR AS TO TELL RECENT CANADIAN VISITORS THAT MOSCOW INTENDS TO UNITE BALUCHI TRIBESMEN LIVING IN CONTIGUOUS AREAS OF THE THREE COUNTRIES WITH THOSE IN THE USSR TO FORM A NEW STATE DOMINATED BY MOSCOIII. ALTHOUGH PEKINGS ASSETS IN THE REGION ARE LIMITED AND THE SIT- UATION ALONG THE FRONTIERS SEEMS FAR SHORT OF OPEN CONFLICT, THE CHINESE CONTINUE TO MAKE REPRESENTATIONS TO SENIOR FOREIGN DIPLOMATS AND OFFICIALS AND TO URGE IRAN AND PAKISTAN TO ESTABLISH CLOSER RELATIONS. PEKING ALSO IS SUPPORTING TEHRAN IN ITS AIMS TO CONSOLI- DATE THE PRIMACY OF IRAN OVER THE PERSIAN GULF IN AN EFFORT TO CURB SOVIET INFLUENCE. IN ADDITION, THE CHINESE MADE A QUITE FRIENDLY GESTURE TO TURKEY WHEN CHOU HIMSELF RECENTLY ATTENDED A TURKISH NA- TIONAL DAY RECEPTION IN PEKING. IN THE INTEREST OF MAINTAINING A ROUGH REGIONAL POWER BALANCE, OFFICIALS CLAIM THAT THE SOVIETS INTEND TO GAIN INFLUENCE IN THE AREA AND ESTABLISH PERMANENT ACCESS TO THE ARABIAN SEA, THAT THEY ENGI- ^ RETURN TO ^ IP PILES Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AGE COI ACP TOG TPE MRO OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONF: INFO: FILE 0 INDEX 0 NO INDEX O RETURNTO 0 IPPILE9 FORCE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN AREA AS A RESTRAINING INFLUENCE ON MOSCOW. THE CHINESE PUBLIC REACTION WAS TEPID AND INDIRECT. IT AMOUNTED TO REPLAYING A TANZANIAN PROTEST AND A CEYLONESE ARTICLE PROTESTING THE PRESENCE OF BOTH SOVIET AND AMERICAN WARSHIPS IN THE INDIAN OCEAN.// A REPORTED SOVIET ARMS GRANT TO KABUL COULD FURTHER COMPLICATE PEKING.S POSITION. ALTHOUGH THE ILL-TRAINED AFGHAN ARMY WOULD BE NO' MATCH FOR PAKISTAN, SUBSTANTIAL SOVIET ARMS SHIPMENTS COULD TRIGGER A PAKISTANI REQUEST FOR AID THAT PEKING WOULD FIND DIFFICULT TO TURN DOWN. A CHINESE GRANT TO PAKISTAN, IN TURN, COULD DAMAGE PROSPECTS FOR AN EARLY CHINESE RAPPROCHEMENT WITH INDIA AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO AN INDIAN REQUEST FOR MATCHING AID FROM MOSCOW. {CONFIDENTIAL} 2. CHINA - JAPAN: THE CHINESE ARE STILL PUSHING THE JAPANESE TO CONCLUDE A CIVIL AVIATION AGREEMENT, THE MOST IMPORTANT AND MOST TROUBLESOME OF THE FOUR BILATERAL AGREEMENTS NOW BEING NEGOTIATED. AFTER MAKING TOUGH DEMANDS AT THE OUTSET OF THE NEGOTIATIONS EARLIER THIS YEAR, PEKING HAS NOW REDUCED ITS REQUIREMENTS TO TWORI: THAT TOKYO FORCE TAIPEI TO CHANGE THE NAME OF CHINA AIRLINES AND THAT THE PLANES CEASE FLYING THE NATIONALIST FLAG. THE JAPANESE ARE PREPARED DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AOE COI ACP TOO TPE MRO 4 7 OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 CLASSIFICATION SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM TO SET UP A DUMMY FIRM, OSTENSIBLY TO REPLACE JAPAN AIRLINES FLIGHTS CONF: INFO: FILE O INDEX 0 NO INDEX 0 RETURN TO 0 IP FILES TO TAIWAN. ACCEPTANCE OF THL:3E DEMANDS WOULD ALLOW THE SUBSTANCE OF JAPAN'S LUCRATIVE AIR TRAFFIC TO CONTINUE, ALTERING ONLY THE FORM OF THE INTERCHANGE. IN FACT, CHINA MAY BELIEVE ITS DEMANDS ARE SO REASONABLE THAT TOKYO COULD REJECT THEM ONLY AT THE RISK OF APPEARING INFLEXIBLE. THE JAPANESE HAVE GONE THROUGH THE MOTIONS OF ACCEPTING PEKING'S PROPOSAL AND HAVE PRESENTED IT TO TAIPEI. HERE, OF COURSE, IS THE STICKING POINT. TAIPEI REFUSES TO ACCEPT THIS ARRANGEMENT FOf THE SAME REASON THAT IT APPEALS TO PEKING: TAIWAN'S INTERNATIONAL STATUS WOULD BE REDUCED YET ANOTHER NOTCH. CONVINCED THAT TOKYO IS MORE IN- TERESTED IN THE IMMEDIATE PROFITS FROM ITS AIR LINKS WITH TAIWAN THAN ANY LONG-RANGE GAINS FROM NEW TIES WITH PEKING, THE NATIONALISTS HAVE TOLD THE JAPANESE THAT.THEY WILL BREAK OFF ALL PRESENT FLIGHTS RATHER THAN CHANGE THE NAME OF THEIR AIRLINE OR FLAG ON ITS PLANES. THE TANAKA GOVERNMENT IS CONCERNED THAT IF IT TWISTS TAIPEI'S ARM, THE PRO-TAIWAN FACTION IN THE RULING LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY WOULD BE ROUSED TO ACTIVE OPPOSITION. GIVEN TANAKA'S MANY OTHER DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AGE COI ACP TOO TPB MRO OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 CLASSIFICATION SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM MESSAGE NAND -ING INDICATOR DATE-TIME GROUP CITE MESSAGE REPERONCE NUMBER CONF: /~ INFO: FILE O INO.Y n un u nev 2 5 E Y - _ DOMESTIC PROBLEMS, HE IS UNWILLING TO GO ALL-OUT AT THIS TIME TO GET 0 RETURN TO 0 IP PILES AN AIR AGREEMENT WITH PEKING. I FACT, THE JAPANESE HAVE ASKED PEKING TO UNDERSTAND THEIR "DELICATE" POSITION, AND THE CHINESE HAVE NOT PRESSED TOKYO.AS HARD AS THEY MIGHT HAVE- THE RESULT IS CONTINUING STALEMATE. IN SEPTEMBER, PUKING PROPOSED AN EXCHANGE OF VISITS BETWEEN JAPANESE AND CHINESE FOREIGN MINISTERS BEFORE THE END.OF 1973. IN THE CIRCUMSTANCES, EVEN IF SUCH VISITS COME OFF, IT IS DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE THAT AN AVIATION AGREEMENT COULD BE CONCLUDED. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT A TRADE AGREEMENT WOULD BE CONCLUDED. THE LACK OF URGENCY IN SINO-JAPANESE NEGOTIATIONS IS IN LARGE MEASURE A RESULT OF THE RELATIVE SATISFACTION OF BOTH SIDES WITH THE PRESENT ARRANGEMENT. CHINAS KEY DIPLOMATIC GOAL WAS ACCOMPLISHED LAST FALL WHEN TOKYO BROKE OFF AMBASSADORIAL RELATIONS WITH TAIWAN AND RECOGNIZED PEKING. NEITHER PEKING NOR TOKYO IS DISPLEASED WITH THE LEVEL OF ECONOMIC INTERCHANGE. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF THE FORMAL ACCORDS FORESEEN IN 1972, TRADE BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES WILL EXPAND TO OVER *2 BILLION IN 1973, OVER TWICE THE AMOUNT OF THE PREVIOUS YEAR. {CONFII" NTIAL} DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USR ONLY AOE COI ACP TOO TPE MRO OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 CLASSIFICATION SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONF: INFO: FILE 0 INDEX 0 NO INDEX 0 RETURNTO 0 IPPILES PER _# 3. JAPAN: A BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTS DEFICIT OF ''.MOST $11 BILLION WAS REGISTERED IN OCTOBER AS THE TRADE SURPLUS CONTINUED TO SHRINK. OVERALL IMPORTS WERE 7? PERCENT HIGHER THAN A YEAR AGO AND IMPORTS FROM THE US GREW EVEN FASTER. AS A RESULT, THE MONTHLY JAPANESE TRADE SURPLUS WITH THE US FELL TO $60 MILLION, COMPAR'"D TO $360 MILLION IN OCTOBER L972, AND TO ONLY $120 MILLION ON A GLOBAL BASIS- LONG-TERM CAPITAL OUTFLOWS DECLINED IN OCTOBER, BUT STILL REMAINED ABOVE $500 MILLION. JAPAN'S OVERALL BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTS DEFICIT SO .FAR THIS YEAR AMOUNTS TO ABOUT $7 BILLION. {CONFIDENTIAL} 4. SOUTH KOREA: STUDENT UNREST CONTINUES UNABATED WITH DEMON- STRATIONS ACCOMPANIED BY SOME ARRESTS OCCURRING AT SEVERAL SEOUL -CAMPIUSES ON 16 NOVEMBER. KOREA UNIVERSITY H:;S SUSPENDED CLASSES FOR A WEEK FOLLOWING A CLASH BETWEEN 21000 STUDENTS AND POLICE ON 15 NOVEMBER. {CONFIDENTIAL} 5. ARAB STATES - ISRAEL: THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CEASE-FIRE AGREEMENT BEGAN ON 15 NOVEMBER, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS DEVEL- OPING. THE: FIRST STAGE OF THE PRISONER-OF-WAR EXCHANGE TOOK PLACE WITH DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AGE COI ACP TOO TPE MRO OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 CLASSIFICATION SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONF: INFO: FILE 0 INDEX 0 NO INDEX 0 RETURN TO 0 IP PILEB THE TRANSFER OF 26 ISRAELI WOUNDED PRISONERS AND OVER 400 EGYPTIANS. ACCORDING TO A PRESS ACCOUNT, EGYPT WAS UNABLE TO ORGANIZE THE REPA- TRIATION OF A LARGER NUMBER OF ISRAELI PRISONERS. NO ADVERSE ISRAELI REACTION TO CAIRO'S DELAY WAS REPORTED. CONTINGENTS OF THE UNITED NATIONS EMERGENCY FORCE {UNEF} TOOK CONTROL OF THE ISRAELI CHECKPOINTS AT KILOMETERS 101 AND 119. A UNEF PRESS SPOKESMAN CLAIMED THAT THERE ARE NO OTHER ISRAELI CHECKPOINTS ON THE CAIRO-SUEZ ROAD. TRUCKS CARRYING RELIEF SUPPLIES TO SUEZ CITY PASSED THROUGH THE CHECKPOINT AT KILOMETER 101 ON 15 NOVEMBER. AN INTERNATIONAL RED CROSS SPOKESMAN HAS ALSO ANNOUNCED THAT THE EVACUA- TION OF MORE THAN 1,000 SICK AND WOUNDED EGYPTIAN CIVILIANS FROM SUEZ CITY WILL BEGIN ON 16 NOVEMBER. ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, ISRAELI DEFENSE MINISTER DAYAN SAID THAT TEL AVIV HAD i1ADE "FAR REACHING" PROPOSALS TO DAMASCUS INCLUDING AN EXCHANGE OF PRISONERS AND OFFERED TO ALLOW ABOUT 15,000 DISPLACED CIVILIANS FROM NEWLY CAPTURED AREAS ON THE GOLAN HEIGHTS TO RETURN TO THEIR HOMES. MEANWHILE, ISRAELI FOREIGN MINISTER EBAN AND SECRETARY- GENERAL WALDHEIM AT THE UN AND A SPECIAL UN ENVOY IN DAMASCUS ARE DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY 140E COI ACP TOO TPE MRO OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM MESSAGE HANOI ^ INDICATOR DATE-TIME ORbUP 'ITS MESSAGE REP.RENCE NUMS!R CONF: INFO: FILE DISSEM BY: SEEKING WAYS TO RESOLVE THE ISRAELI-SYRIAN PRISONER ISSUE. 0 RETURNTO 0 IP PILES EGYPTIANS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN SATISFIED WITH THE EGYPTIAN-ISRAELI DECISION OF WEDNESDAY TO PROCEED WITH THE IMPLEMENTATION OF FOUR ELEMENTS OF THE SIX-POINT AGREEMENT OF 11 NOVEMBER. THE NEW, BUT RESTRAINED OPTIMISM ENDS A PERIOD OF GLOOM AND FRUSTRATION OVER WHAT EGYPTIANS CONSIDERED ISRAELI OBSTRUCTIONISM AND A BREAKDOWN OF NE- GOTIATIONS. //THE US INTERESTS SECTION BELIEVES THAT//THERE IS NO REAL CHALLENGE TO SADAT'S LEADERSHIP AND//REPORTS THAT//HIS POPULARITY APPEARS TO BE HIGH. SOME UNHAPPINESS EXISTS AMONG UNIVERSITY STUDENTS, AND THERE IS MUTTERING BY YOUNGER OFFICERS, WHO COMPLAIN THAT THE CEASE-FIRE WAS ENTERED INTO FOR POLITICAL- RATHER THAN MILITARY REASONS. NEVERTHELESS, EGYPT APPEARS READY TO GIVE SADAT'S POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS A CHANCE TO SUCCEED. RADIO TRIPOLI ON 15 NOVEMBER CARRIED WHAT WAS DESCRIBED AS A CABLE SENT BY PRESIDENT' QADHAFI TO PRESIDENT SADAT DEALING WITH THE ARAB-ISRAELI WAR AND ITS AFTERMATH. QADHAFI'S MESSAGE BITTERLY CON- DEMNED SADAT'S ACCEPTANCE OF THE. CEASE-FIRE; THE WAR, QADHAFI SAID, DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AGE COI ACP TOO TPE MRO - ? 7 , o - 3 E D - OMF 0 .0 0 0 0 0 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONF: INFO: FILE 0 INDEX 0 NO INDEX 0 RETURN TO 0 IPFILES DISSEM BY: PER' SHOULD HAVE BEEN CONTINUED "EVEN IF IT DEVELOPED INTO HAND-TO-HAND FIGHTING." THE COMMUNIQUE ISSUED ON 15 NOVEMBER FOLLOWING THE TITO-BREZHNEV TALKS IN KIEV BROKE NO NEW GROUND-ON THE MIDDLE EAST. BOTH LEADERS' RECOGNIZED THE IMPORTANCE 'OF OBTAINING A MIDDLE EAST SETTLEMENT AND REAFFIRMED THEIR READINESS TO, MAKE EFFORTS IN THAT DIRECTION. THE COMMUNIQUE ACCUSED ISRAEL OF "CRUDE FLOUTING" OF THE UN CEASE-FIRE RESOLUTIONS'AND NOTED THE "DANGEROUS CONSEQUENCE S^ OF ISRAEL'S "ADVENTUROUS ACTIONS." MEANWHILE, IN MOSCOW, PREMIER KOSYGIN TOLD A GUINEAN' DELEGATION THAT THE SOVIETS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE "UTMOST ASSISTANCE:" TO IMPLEMENT UN RESOLUTIONS ON THE MIDDLE EAST. PRAVDA ALSO EMPHASIZED MOSCOW'S -CONTINUING ROLE IN ACHIEVING A' MIDDLE EAST SETTLEMENT.//. THE SOVIET WEEKLY NEW TIMES TOUCHED ON THE SENSITIVE SUBJECT OF ARAB FINANCIAL HOLDINGS IN THE WEST BY NOTING THAT SUBSTANTIAL SUMS ARE HELD IN US AND WEST EUROPEAN BANKS. IT SAID "IF THE ARABS WITHDREW ONLY HALF OF THEIR INVESTMENTS, IT WOULD LEAD TO A SERIOUS UPHEAVAL- OF THE FINANCES OF MANY WEST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES." THE US-WAS NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN THIS REGARD. DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AOE COI ACP TOO . OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONF: INFO: FILE 0 INDEX 0 NO INDEX 0 RETURN TO 0 IP FILES 4 7 DATE: 1m1111?111m11111 NOVEMBER 197111113 ORIG: UNIT: 25X1A EXT: 9400 PER _#_____ Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AGE COI ACP TOO TPE MRO OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 CLASSIFICATION SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM 0 R U ~j PAGE OF PAGES 0 INDEX DISSEM BY: 0 NO INDEX U RETURN TO PER ITEMS MARKED & HAVE BEEN COORDINATED WITH THE DEPARTMENTS OF STATE ANi DEFENSE. &1.//ARGENTINA: PRESIDENT PERON HAS FAVORED THE RIGHT IN REORGANIUZING HIS JUSTICIALIST PARTY.// //PERON ANNOUNCED LAST WEEK THAT THE PERONIST MOVEMENT WAS FORMALIZING ITS STRUCTURE AND HE OUTLINED THE NEW ORGANIZATIONAL ^UIHIERARCHY, NAMING TOP POLITICAL ADVISERS. MISSING FROM THE LIST WR.S A PROMINENT PERONIST YOUTH LEADER, WHO APPARENTLY STILL HOLDS THE EXECUTIVE POST OF LIAISON OFFICER BETWEEN THE GOVERN- MENT AND VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES. PERON, UNDER PRESSURE FROM RIGHTIST ELEMENTS WITHIN THE LABOR MOVEMENT, REPORTEDLY PURGED HIM.FROM THE PARTY HIERARCHY.;/ //THIS MANEUVER MAY INTENSIFY THE ONGOING POWER STRUGGLE WESTERN HEMISPHERE BRIEF 073. BETWEEN LEFTIST AND C)NSERVATIVE LEADERS IN THE PARTY. MANY YOUNG PERONISTS HAVE PROTESTED PUBLICLY, AND SECRETARY TO THE PRESIDENCY SOLANO LIMA REPORTEDLY IS LOOKING FOR A WAY FOR PERON TO BALANCE THIS MOVE TO HEAD OFF ^MORE SERIOUS DISSENSION. DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE T 1 OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 CLASSIFICATION SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM 0 A PAGE OF PAGES 13 0 INDEX DISSEM BY: 0 NO INDEX 0 RETUIN TO PER 0 tP FILES T/. MEANWHILE, VICE PRESIDENT MARIA ESTELA DE PERON AND PRESIDENTIAL NOVEMBER TO MOBILIZE SUPPORT FOR THE RIGHT W.'.NG OF THE JUSTI CONFIDANT LOPEZ REGA ARE PLANNING A MASS PERONIST RALLY FOR 16 CIALIST,PARTY.// LATEST MOVE, HOWEVER, IS IN LINE WITH HIS LONG-RANGE STRATEGY //SO FAR PERON, IN HIS OWN ENIGMATIC FASHION, HAS REFUSED OPEN SUPPORT FOR ANY SPECIFIC GROUP WITHIN THE MOVEMENT. PERON'S TO SEPARATE OUT EXTREME LEFTISTS, WHILL. RETAINING THE SUPPORT OF THE MAJORITY OF THE YOUTH. {SECRET}//- 2. CHILE: THE JUNTA GOVERNMENT BROKE RELATIONS WITH CUBA IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE COUP, BUT HAS OTHERWISE BEEN TRYING TO AVOID DIPLOMATIC ISOLATION AND UPHOLD CH::LE'S STANDING AS A MEMBER OF THE "NONALIGNED" GROUP. THE EFFORT TO MAINTAIN DIPLO-' MATIC TIES WITH AS MANY NATIONS AS POSSIBLE HAS EVEN EXTENUDED TO SOME NON-NATIONS WITH WHOM CHILE ESTABLISHED RIUELATIONS UNDER ALLENDE. CHILE THUS CONTINUES TO RECOGNIZE THE PROVISIONAL REVOLUTIONARY GOVERNMENT OF SOUTH VIETNAM {EVEN THOUGH THE PRGSVN HAS CLOSED ITS MISSION IN SANTIAGO}, AND CAMBODIAN DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 .OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONI.'' COI ACP TOO TPE MRO OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 CLASSIFICATION SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONF: INFO: FILE PAGE OF PAGES O INDEX DISSEM BY: NO INDEX 0 RETURN TO PER 0 IP PILES }r PRINCE SIHANIIIOUK'S DRUNK {WHICH STILL MAINTAINS AN AMBASSADOR IN THE CHILEAN CAPITAL}. THE NEW CHILEAN GOVERNMENT FAILED TO VOTE IN FAVOR OF THE KHMER REPUBLIC'S CREDENTIALS AT A UNESCO CONFERENCE LAST MONTH, DESPITE A KHMER VOTE IN FAVOR OF CHILE. A FOREIGN MINISTRY OFFICIAL RECENTLY INFORMED THE US CHARGE THAT CHILE WILL OPPOSE EFFORTS TO INVITE THE PRG AND GRUNK TO THE UPCOMING LAW OF THE.SEA CONFERENCE, HOWEVER. REFLECTION ON THE IMPLICATIONS OF RECOGNIZING ENTITIES SUCH AS THE PRG AND GRUNK WHEN THE JUNTA COULD EVENTUALLY FIND ITS OWN LEGITIMACY CHALLENGED BY A LEFTIST GOVERNMENT IN EXILE, AND SOME LOBBYING BY THE US MAY HAVE COMBINED TO CONVINCE THE JUNTA THAT NO STATE SHOULD BE REPRESENTED BY MORE THAN ONE GOVERNMENT. {CONFIDENTIAL} 3. CUBA. A PANEL DISCUSSION ON HAVANA DOMESTIC RADIO EARLIER THIS WEEK DEMONSTRATED CONTINUED CUBAN ANXIETY OVER DEVELOPMENTS IN ARGENTINA. THE CUBAN LEADERSHIP, ALREADY CON- CERNED.OVER PERON'S ANTI-MARXIST CAMPAIGN, IS NOW FRETTING OVER THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE RECENT VISIT OF BOLIVIA'S PRESIDENT BANZER TO ARGENTINA AND PERON'S IMPENDING TRIP TO THE US. DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AGE COI ALP TOG TPE MPG OMF 0 0 a a 0 a CLASSIFICATION SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM PAGE OF PAGES INDEX DISSEM BY: NO INDEX RETURN TO PER a IF FILES TWO WEEKS AGO, A RADIO COMMENTARY DESCRIBED PERON'S "CAUTIOUS COURSE" AS OPPOSED TO THE "RADICAL REFORMS" DEMANDED BY THE "OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF ARGENTINE PEOPLE" WHO VOTED FOR HIM. HAVANA HAS NOW GONE ONE STEP FURTHER BY DESCRIBING PERON'S ACTIONS ASA SHIFT TO THE RIGHT. ONE PANELIST ADDED THAT IT APPEARS THAT PERONI1II "WILL CARRY OUT COUNTER-REFORMS TOO, IN THE SENSE OF REPRESSING THE LEFT.." THIS IS UNJUSTIFIED IN HAVANA'S OPINION, BECAUSE PERON REGAINED POLITICAL CONTROL IN ARGENTINA AFTER GUERRILLA GROUPS AND THE RADICAL LEFT CREATED AN'UNTENABLE SITUATION FOR THE MILITARY REGIME. THE PROGRAM CONCLUDED WITH A WARNING TO PERON THAT AN ALLIANCE WITH THE RIGHT. WOULD UPSET THE POLITICAL BAL- ANCE IN ARGENTINA AND AN IMPLIED REMINDER THAT THE LEFT CA'N ALSO MAKE THINGS AS DIFFICULT FOR PERON.AS IT DID FOR THE PREVIOUS MILITARY GOVERNMENTS. .THE CONTENT OF THE BROADCAST REFLECTS THE GENUINE CONCERN OF THE CUBAN LEADERSHIP, BUT,THERE. APPEARS TO BE SOME HOPE THAT PERON'S RECENT. ACTIONS WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY. SINCE THE ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 'Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AGE COI ACP 700 TPC MRO OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 CLASSIFICATION SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM T PAGE OF -PAGES INDEX DISSEM BY: NO INDEX RETURN TO PER 0 IP FILES it COMMENTARY WAS t.ARRIED ON A DOMESTIC BROADCAST, HAVANA'S MAIN PURPOSE IS PROBABLY TO PREPARE ITS CUBAN AUDIENCE FOR MORE BAD NEWS FROM SOUTH AMERICA. {CONFIDENTIAL} 4. REPORT THAT CUBANS WHO ARE ADVISING PANAMANIAN LITTLE LEAGUE TEAMS ARE USING THEIR 25X1C 25X1 C SPORTS ACTIVITIES AS COVER FOR INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION. OFFICIALS OF THE CUBAN GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE WHO WERE IN PANAMA WITH THE KNOWLEDGE AND APPROVAL OF THE TORRIJOS GOVERNMENT. THE CUBANS PROBABLY USE SPORTS PROGRAMS AS COVER FOR INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION ACTIVITIES BE- CAUSE THEY HAVE NO DIPLOMATIC REPRESENTATION IS PANAMA.// //WHEN REPORTERS ASK HIM ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE ES- TABLISHMENT OF-FULL DIPLOMATIC TIES WITH THE CASTRO GOVERN- MENT, TORRIJOS USUALLY REPLIES THAT THE TWO COUNTRIES HAVE BROAD CULTURAL AND SOME TRADE LINKS AND THAT HE FEELS UNDER NO PRESSURE TO SET UP DIPLOMATIC RELATION. HE FINDS FRIENDSHIP WITH HAVANA USEFUL IN PROMOTING HIS "REVOLUTIONARY" IMAGE AND DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AGE COI ACP TOG TPE MRO OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 CLASSIFICATION SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM PAGE OF PAGES MESSAGE HANDLING INDICATOR DATE-TIME GROUP CITE MESSAGE REFERENCE NUMBER NO INDEX RETURN TO PER 0 IP FILES IN DEMONSTRATING A MEASURE OF INDEPENDENCE FROM THE US33L IT IS RELUCTANT TO MOVE TOO MUCH CLOSER TO AN ANTAGONIST OF THE US AS LONG AS HE THINKS HE HAS A CHANCE OF OBTAINING AN ACCEPTABLE CANAL TREATY PACKAGE FROM WASHINGTON. IF, ON THE OTHER HAND,HE COMES TO BELIEVE HE HAS. NO CHANCE FOR A NEGOTIATED "VICTORY" HE MIGHT DECIDE THAT DIPLOMATIC TIES WITH HAVANA WOULD BE ADVANTAGEOUS. {CONFIDENTIAL}// 5. ARAB STATES-ISRAEL: THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CEASE- FIRE AGREEMENT BEGAN ON 15 NOVEMBER, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PROBI- LEMS DEVELOPING. THE FIRST STAGE OF THE PRISONER-OF-WAR EXCHANGE TOOK PLACE WITH THE TRANSFER OF 26 ISRAELI WOUNDED PRISONERS AND OVER 400 EGYPTIANS. ACCORDING TO A PRESS ACCOUNT, EGYPT WIAS UNABLE TO ORGANIZE THE REPATRIATION OF A LARGER NUMBER OF ISRAELI.PRISON- ERS? NO ADVERSE ISRAELI REACTION TO CAIRO'S,DEL AY WAS REPORTED. CONTINGENTS OF THE UNITED NATIONS EMERGENCY FORCE U{UNEF} TOOK CONTROL OF THE ISRAELI CHECKPOINTS AT KILOMETERS 101 AND 119. A UNEF PRESS SPOKESMAN CLAIMED THAT'THERE ARE NO OTHER DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AGE :OI ACP TOO TPE MRO OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 CLASSIFICATION SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM PAGE OF PAGES 0 NOES DISSEM BY: 0 NO INDEX 0 RETURN TO PER 0 IF FILES ISRAELI CHECKPOINTS ON THE CAIRO-SUEZ ROAD. TRUCKS CARRYING RELIEF SUPPLIES TO SUEZ CITY PASSED THROUGH THE CHECKPOINT AT KILOMETER 101 ON 15 NOVEMBER. AN INTERNATIONAL RED CROSS SPOKESMAN HAS ALSO ANNOUNCED THAT THE EVACUATION OF MORE THAN :b,000 SICK AND WOUNDED EGYPTIAN CIVILIANS FROM SUEZ CITY WILL BEGIN ON 16 NOVEMBER. ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, ISRAELI DEFENSE MINISTER DAYAN SAID THAT TEL AVIV HAD MADE "FAR REACHING" PROPOSALS TO DAMASCUS INCLUDING AN EXCHANGE OF PRISONERS AND OFFERED TO ALLOW ADOUT 15,000 DISPLACED CIVILIANS FROM NEWLY CAPTURED AREAS ON THE GOLAN HEIGHTS TO RETURN TO THEIR HOMES. MEANWHILE, ISRAELI FOREIGN MINISTER EBAN AND SECRETARY-GENERAL WALDHEIM AT THE UN AND A SPECIAL UN ENVOY IN DAMASCUS ARE SEEKING WAYS TO RESOLVE THE ISRAELI-SYRIAN PRISONER ISSUE. EGYPTIANS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN SATISFIED WITH THE EUGYPTIAN- ISRAELI DECISION OF WEDNESDAY TO PROCEED WITH THE IMPLEMENTATION OF-FOUR ELEMENTS OF THE SIX-POINT AGREEMENT OF 11 NUOVEMBER. THE NEW, BUT RESTRAINED OPTIMISM ENDS A PERIOD OF GLOOM AND DATE: ORIG UNIT..'. EXT;, Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AOE COI ACP TOO TPE MRU OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 CLASSIFICATION SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM 0 INDEX DISSEM BY: 0 NO INDEX 0 RETURN TO PER 0 IP FILES tt FRUSTRATION OVER WHAT EGYPTIANS CONSIDERED ISRAELI OBSTRUCTION- ISM AND A BREAKDOWN OF NEGOTIATIONS. //THE US INTERESTS SECTION BELIEVES THAT//THERE IS NO REAL CHALLENGE TO SADAT'S LEADERSHIP AND//REPORTS THAT//HIS POPULARITY APPEARS TO BE HIGH. SOME UNHAPPINESS EXISTS AMONG UNIVERSITY STUDENTS, AND THERE IS MUTTERING BY YOUNGER OFFICERS, WHO COM- PLAIN THAT THE CEASE-FIRE WAS ENTERED INTO FOR POLITICAL, RATHER THAN MILITARY REASONS. NEVERTHELESS, EGYPT'APPEARS READY TO GIVE SADAT'S POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS A CHANCE TO SUCCEED. RADIO TRIPOLI ON 15 NOVEMBER CARRIED WHAT WAS DESCRIBED AS A CABLE SENT BY PRESIDENT QADHAFI TO PRESIDIENT SADAT DEALING WITH THE ARAB-ISRAELI WAR AND ITS AFTERMATH. QADHAFI'S MESSAGE BITTERLY CONDEMNED SADAT'S ACCEPTANCE OF THE CEASE-FIRE; THE WAR, QADHAFI SAID, SHOULD HAVE BEEN CONTINUED "EVEN IF IT DE- VELOPED INTO HAND-TO-HAND FIGHTING." THE COMMUNIQUE ISSUED ON 15 NOVEMBER FOLLOWING THE TITO- BREZHNEV TALKS IN KIEV BROKE NO NEW GROUND ON THE MIDDLE EAST. uUlihuluuIUIuIU^lulIluIUIU DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AQR COI ACP TOO TPE MRO OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM R 0 U T N a ':EESAQE HANDLING INDICATOR DATE-TIME GROUP CITE MEBEAGE REFERENCE NUMBER 0 INDEX DISSEM BY: O NO INOEK 0 RETURN TO PER 0 IF PILES Yf BOTH LEADERS RECOGNIZED THE .. IMPORTANCE 'OF- OBTAINING 'A MIDDLE EAST SETTLEMENT AND REAFFIRMED THEIR-READINESS TO MAKE EFFORTS-IN THAT DIRECTION. THE COMMUNIQUE ACCUSED ISRAEL OF "CRUDE-FLOUTING" OF THE UN CEASE-FIRE RESOLUTIONS AND NOTED' THE."DANGEROUS CONSE- QUENCES" OF ISRAEL'S "ADVENTUROUS-AC.TIONS." MEANWHILE, IN MOS- COW,.-PREMIER KOSYGIN TOLD A GUINEAN DELEGATION THAT THE SOVIETS WILL CONTINUE-TO GIVE THE "UTMOST ASSIST-ANCEr TO IMPLEMENT UN RESOLUTIONS ON THE MIDDLE EAST.' 'PRAVDA'ALSO'EMPHASIZED MOS.COW'S CONTINUING ROLE IN ACHIEVING A MIDDLE EAST SETTLEMENT., //THE SOVIET WEEKLY NEW TIMES TOUCHED ON THE SENSITIVE SUBJECT OF ARAB FINANCIAL HOLDINGS IN THE WEST BY NOTING THAT SUBSTANTIAL SUMS ARE HELD IN US AND WEST EUROPEAN BANKS. IT SAID "IF THE ARABS WITHDREW ONLY HALF OF THEIR INVESTMENTS, IT WOULD LEAD TO A SERIOUS UPHEAVAL' OF THE FINANCES OF MANY WEST-EUROPEAN COUNTRIES." THE US WAS NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN THIS REGARD. ALTHOUGH MOSCOW HAS ENDORSED THE USE. OF ARAB OIL, IT HAS NOT MADE SUCH EXPLICIT REFERENCE TO THE SIGNIFICANCE OF ARAB FINANCIAL RESERVES.// DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AGE COI ACP TOO TPE MRO OMF 0 0 I1 0 0 0 CLASSIFICATION SECRE `17 NO FOREIGN DISSEM PAGE OF PAGES //THE FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTRY HAS'REJECTED THE INITIAL DRAFT OF THE EC'S PROPOSED JOINT DEMARCHE TO THE ARABS.- PRE- SUMABLY PARIS OBJECTED ^TQ THE FIRST PARAGRAPH OF THE PROPOSED TEXT, WHICH NOTED THAT "RECENT MEASURES TAKEN BY ARAB STATES ARE OF SUCH A NATURE AS TO AFFECT THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY--AND CERTAIN OF ITS MEMBERS IN PARTICULAR--TO DISTURB PUBLIC OPINION1 AND TO HAVE A NEGATIVE EFFECT ON EUROPEAN-ARAB RELATIONS." ^IITHE DRAFT WILL PROBABLY BE REVIEWED AGAIN, AND MAY BE SOFTENED, AT THE EC FOREIGN MINISTERS' MEETING SCHEDULED FOR 20 NOVEMBER IN COPENHAGEN.// FURTHER PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE AT THE UN IN ASSEMBLING THE PEACEKEEPING FORCE. THE UN EMERGENCY FORCE NOW HAS APPROXI- MATELY 21200 TROOPS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND ENOUGH PLEDGES TO BRING IT CLOSE TO THE 7,000-MAN GOAL. -NEGOTIATIONS HAVE ALSO REACHED TENTATIVE AGREEMENT ON A SPECIAL ASSESSMENT SCALE FOR THE FINANCING OF THE EMERGENCY FORCE. UNEF, HOWEVER,'IS STILL WITHOUT ADEQUATE SUPPLIES OR LOGISTIC SUPPORT FOR ITS RAPIDLY GROWING FORCES. {SECRET} E-21MPDET.H DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AGE COI ACP TOO TPE MRO OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 CLASSIFICATION SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM DATE: 16 NOVEMCER 19?3 ORIG: UNIT: OCI/WHD EXT: 9363 25X1A INDEX NO INDEX RETURN TO Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AOe COI ACP TOO TPE MRO a _._ _.....- a .....------ .. ... PAOP. OP PAGES . OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 SECRET NO FOREIGN 1ISSEM 0 INOEP 0 NOINOEX 0 RETUVN TO 0 IPPILES EUROPEAN BRIEF 073. PER _# ITEMS MARKED & HAVE BEEN COORDINATED WITH THE DEPARTMENTS OF STATE AND DEFENSE. &1?//EC: THE COUNCIL OF FINANCE MINISTERS AGREED LAST WEEK TO TRY TO FORMULATE A JOINT ANTI-INFLATION OROCkAM AND TO CON- SIDER STEPS TO RENEW PROGRESS TOWARD ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION BEFORE YEAR'S END.// //FOLLOWING APPROVAL OF THE COMMISSION'S ANNUAL ECONOMIC REPORT HIGHLIGHTING THE INFLATION PROBLEM, FRENCH FINANCE MINISTER GISCARD D'ESTAING SUGGESTED A NEW COMMUNITY APPROACH TO COMBAT INFLATION. THE SIX PROPOSALS INCLUDE: LIMITING THE GROWTH OF MONEY SUPPLIES; LIBERALIZING IMPORT QUOTAS, PARTICULARLY ON PROCESSED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS; AND INCOME CONTROLS. SOME COUNTRIES--NOTABLY WEST GERMANY--BELIEVE THEY HAVE ALREADY TAKEN ADEQUATE MEASURES AND OPPOSE WAGE AND PRICE CONTROLS. NONEITHELESS, THE COUNCIL GENERALLY FAVORED THESE PROPOSALS AND ORDERED THE COMMISSI"N TO PREPARE A SPECIFIC ANTI-INFLATION PROGRAM FOR COUNCIL DISCUSSION ON 3-4 DECEMBER. THE IMPACT OF ANY SUCH PROGRAM DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AGE COI ACP TOO TPE MRO R , O T N S OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM MESSAGE REFERENCE NUMEF.R PROBABLY WILL BE SLIGHT; EVEN THE RELIATIVELY WEAK MEASURES OF PAST COMMUNITY EFFORTS HAVE BEEN OFTEN IGNORED BY MEMBER STATES.// //THE DECISION TO CONSIDER NEW STEPS TOWARD ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION WERE FORCED BY A BOLD COMMISISION INITIATIVE DURING THE MEETING. IN A SURPRISE MOVE, THE COMMISSION CALLED ON THE COUNCIL TO STRENGTHEN THE INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR MOVING TOWARD ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION AND ANNOUNCED THAT IT WILL SHORTULY SUBMIT PROPOSALS FOR THE NEXT STEP"'. THE EC HEADS OF STATE, AT LAST YEAR'S SUMMIT, SET 1 JANUARY 1974 AS THE TARGET FOR THE SECOND STAGE OF ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION. THE FIRST STAGE HAS BEEN UNSATISFACTORY, HOWEVER. THE UK, IRELAND, AND ITALY ARE NOT IN THE JOINT CURRENCY FLOAT, INTRA-EC ECONOMIC POLICY COORDINATION HAS NOT ADVANCED VERY MUCH, AND THE SECOND STAGE HAS NOT YET BEEN DEFINED. SEVERAL MEMBERS HAVE FAVORED FORMAL. POSTPONEMENT OF THE. SECOND STAGE UNTIL THESE AND OTHER PROBLEMS ARE OVERCOME. LAST WEEK, HOWEVER, THE MINISTERS APPEARED READY TO CIRCUMVENT FORMAL SCHEDULE DECISIONS AND TO MOVE ON NEW PRACTICAL PROPOSALS. EVEN THE FRENCH NOW ISEEM TO FAVOR CLOSER ECONOMIC COORDINATION WHICH CONF: INFO: FILE 0 INDEX 0 NO INDEX 0 RETURN TO 0 IP FILES DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AGE COI ACP TOO TPE MRO PAGE OF PAGES OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM MESSAGE HANDLING INDICATOR DATE-TIME GROUP CITE MESSAGE REFERENCE NUMBER CONF: INFO: FILE 0 INDEX 0 NOINDEX PER._._#_ 0 RETURNTO 0 IP F'LES FORMERLY THEY HAD RESISTED BECAUSE THEY CLAIMED TT WOULD COMPROMISE THEIR SOVEREIG14TY . // //DESPITE THIS APPARENT CHANGE IN ATTITUDES, PROGRESS TOWARD ECONOMIC AND MONETIARY UNION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SL.OW. A REGIONAL FUND--FAVORED BY THE UK, IRELAND, AND ITALY--MIGHT BE ADOPTED BY THC END OF THE YEAR, BUT WEST GERMANY, THE MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR, WILL INSIST THAT THE FUND'S SIZE BE SMALL. SHORT-TERM MONETARY SUPPORT FOR THE JOINT FLOAT UCOULD BE INCREASED BEFORE THE YEAR IS OUT, BUT ADDITUIONAL CREDITS--SWAP ARRANGEMENTS, FOR EXAMPLE--WILL BE LESS AUTOMATIC THAN THE COMMISSION WOULD LIKE. RESERVE POOLING, EXCEPT ON A TOKEN BASIS, AND ADOPTION OF A UNIFIED POSITION ON INTERNATIONAL MONETARY REFORM, BOTH STRONGLY FAVORED BY THE COMMISSION, WILL NOT BE APPROVED ^UNTIL ADEQUATE COMMUNITY POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS ARE ESTABLISHED.// //LAST WEEK'S MEETING WAS DESIGNED TO GET THE EC MOVING AGAIN TOWARD THE ESTABLISHMENT OF AN ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION BY THE 1980 DEADLINE. IN CONTRAST WITH THE LACK OF PROGRESS AT EARLIER FINANCE MINISTERS' MEETINGS, NATIONAL REPRESENTATIVES AT THIS DATE : ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AGE COI ACP TOO TPE MRO OMF 0 0' D 0 0 0 SECRET NO FOREIGN DIBSEM SESSION SHOWED SUFFICIENT POLITICAL WILL TO HOLD OUT HOPE FOR THEIR UNITY GOALS. {CONFIDENTIAL}// &2.//WEST GERMANY: BONN REGISTERED A $1.6-BILLION TRADE SURPLUS IN SEPTEMBER, RAISING THE CUMULATIVE SURPLUS FOR THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 1973 TO $8.7 BILLION. THIS IS MORE THAN DOUBLE THE LEVEL FOR THE COMPARABLE PERIOD OF 1972. TRADE DECLINED IN AUGUST AS A RESULT OF SEASONAL FACTORS, BUT REBOUNDED IN SEPTEMBER WHEN EXPORTS WERE UP 63 PERCENT AND IM- PORTS UP 40 PERCENT, COMPARED WITH SEPTEMBER- 1972? EXPORTS PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE AT HIGH LEVELS IN THE REMAINING MONTHS OF THE YEAR, CONTRIBUTING TO AN ANNUAL TRADE SURPLUS THAT IS LIKELY TO REACH A RECORD LEVEL OF AT LEAST $12 BILLION. A SURPLUS OF $250 MILLION IN TRADE WITH THE US ACCOUNTED FOR ONE SIXTH OF WEST GERMANY'S TOTAL SURPLUS IN SEPTEMBER. THE NINE-MONTH SURPLUS WITH THE US REACHED NEARLY $1 BILLION AND IS LIKELY TO 0 INDEX 0 NOINDEX 0 RBTURNTO 0 IPFILES DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AGE COI ACP TOO TPE MRO OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM CONF: INFO: FILE 0 INDEX 0 NO INDEX ? PER Tt 0 RETURNTO 0 IPFILESAPPROACH $] .5 BILLION FOR THL ENTIRE YEAR. ALTHOUGH US SALES OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES HAVE RISEN DRAMATICALLY THIS YEAR, THESE GAINS HAVE BEEN MORE THAN OFFSET BY INCREASED US IMPORTS OF INTERMEDIATE. GOODS AND MANUFACTURES, PARTICULARLY TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT. {CONFIDENTIAL}// 3. ROMANIA: THE ARAB DISREGARD OF A ROMANIAN INVITATION TO MEET WITH ISRAELI FOREIGN MINISTER EBAN IN BUCHAREST LAST WEEK HAS APPARENTL;" LEFT UNDAUNTED CEAUSESCU'S DESIRE TO PLAY THE ROLE OF "HONEST BROKER" IN THE MID-EAST CRISIS. BUCHAREST'S LATEST STEP HAS BEEN THE DISPATCH OF "PRESIDENTIAL REPRESENTATIVES" TO CONFER WITH ARAB LEADERS? FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER-CORNELIU MANESCU MET WITH SADAT SOON AFTER ^HIS ARRIVAL IN CAIRO ON NOVEMBER 14 AND HAS GONE ON TO RABAT AND KHARTOUM FOREIGN AFFAIRS ADVISOR.MIRCEA MALITA WAS RECEIVED PROMPTLY BY ASAD IN DAMASCUS AND IS EN ROUTE TO BAGHDAD. THE ROMANIAN EINVOYS MAY BE CARRYING A NEW PEACE PROPOSAL BASED ON LAST WEEK'S ROMANIAN-ISRAELI TALKS. {CONFIDENTIAL} Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY cot ACP TOO TPE MRO OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM MESSAGE HASVOLING INOIQATOR OATE?TIME GROUP dl O RETURN TO O IP PILES 4. ARAB STATES - ISRAEL: THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CEASE-FIRE AGREEMENT BEGAN ON 15 NOVEMBER, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS DEVELOPING. THE FIRST STAGE OF THE PRISONER-OF-WAR EXCHANGE TOOK PLACE WITH THE TRANSFER OF 26 ISRAELI WOUNDED PRISONERS AND OVER 400 EGYPTIANS. ACCORDING TO A PRESS ACCOUNT, EGYPT WAS UNABLE TO ORGANIZE THE REPATRIATION OF A LARGER NUMBER OF ISRAELI PRISONERS. NO ADVERSr ISRAELI REACTION TO CAIRO'S DELAY WAS REPORTED. CONTINGENTS OF THE UNITED NATIONS EMERGENCY FORCE {UNEF} TOOK CONTROL OF THE ISRAELI CHECKPOINTS AT KILOMETERS 101 AND 119. A UNEF PRESS SPOKESMAN CLAIMED THAT THERE ARE NO OTHER ISRAELI CHECKPOINTS ON THE CAIRO-SUEZ ROAD. TRUCKS CARRYING RELIEF SUP- PLIES TO SUEZ CITY PASSED THROUGH THE CHECKPOINT AT KILOMETER 101 ON 15 NOVEMBER. AN INTERNATIONAL RED CROSS SPOKESMAN HAS ALSO ANNOUNCED THAT THE EVACUATION OF MORE THAN 1,000 SICK AND WOUNDED EGYPTIAN' CIVILIANS DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AOE COI ACP TOO TPE MRO OMF 0 0 0 0 0 SECRET N^ FOREIGN DISSEM MESSAUE HANDLING INDICATOR DATE-TIME GROUP CONF: INFO: FILE 0 INDEX 0 NOINDEM O RETURNTO 0 IP PILES FROM SUEZ CITY WILL BEGIN ON 16 NOVEMBER. 8 MESSAGE REFERENCE NUMEER DISSEM BY:_ PER' ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, ISRAELI DEFENSE MINISTER DAYAN SAID THAT TEL AVIV HAD'MADE "FAR REACHING" PROPOSALS TO DAMASCUS INCLUDING AN EXCHANGE OF PRISONERS AND OFFERED TO ALLOW ABOUT 151000 DISFLACED CIVILIANS FROM NEWLY CAPTURED AREAS ON.THE GOLAN HEIGHTS TO RETURN TO THEIR HOMES. MEANWHILE, ISRAELI FOREIGN MINISTER EBAN AND .SECRETARY-GENERAL WALDHEIM AT THE UN AND A SPECIAL UN ENVO","- IN DAMASCUS ARE SEEKING WAYS TO RESOLVE THE ISRAELI- SYRIAN PRISONER ISSUE. EGYPTIANS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN SATISFIED WITH THE EGYPTIAN-ISRAELI DECISION OF WEDNESDAY TO PROCEED WITH THE IMPLEMENTATION OF FOUR ELEMENTS OF THE SIX- POINT AGREEMENT OF 11 NOVEMBER. THE NEW, BUT RESTRAINED OPTIMISM ENDS A PERIOD OF GLOOM AND FRUSTRATION OVER WHAT EGYPTIANS CONSIDERED ISRAELI OBSTRUCTIONISM AND A BREAKDOWN OF NEGOTIATIONS. //THE'US INTERESTS SECTION BELIEVES THAT//THERE IS DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE 5'GNAL CENTER U&E ONLY AGE :DO ACP TOO TPE MRO OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 SECRET NO FOREIGN l)ISSEM PAGE Or PAGES INFO: FILE DISSEM BY: 0 INDEX 0 NO INDEX 0 RETURNTO 0 IPFILES NO REAL CHALLENGE TO SADAT'S.LEADERSHIP AND//REPORTS THAT//HIS POPULARITY APPEARS TO BE HIGH. SOME UN- HAPPINESS EXISTS AMONG UNIVERSITY STUDENTS,,AND THERE IS MUTTERING BY YOUNGER OFFICERS, WHO COMPLAIN THAT THE CEASE-FIRE WAS ENTERED INTO FOR POLITICAL, RATHER THAN MILITARY REASONS. NEVERTHELESS, EGYPT APPEARS READY TO GIVE SADAT'S POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC EF- FORTS A CHANCE TO SUCCEED. RADIO TRIPOLI ON 15 NOVEMBER CARRIED WHAT WAS DE- SCRIBED AS A CABLE SENT BY PRESIDENT QADHAFI TO PRESIDENT SADAT DEALING WITH THE ARAB-ISRAELI WAR AND ITS AFTERMATH. QADHAFI'S MESSAGE BITTERLY CON- DEMNED S,&DAT'S ACCEPTANCE OF THE CEASE-FIRE; THE WAR, QADHAFI SAID, SHOULD HAVE BEEN CONTINUED "EVEN IF IT DEVELOPED INTO HAND-TO-F;,AND FIGHTING." THE COMMUNIQUE ISSUED ON 15 NOVEMBER FOLLOWING THE TITO-BREZHNEV TALKS IN KIEV BROKE NO NEW GROUND ON THE MIDDLE EAST. BOTH LEADERS RECOGNIZED THE IMPORTANCE OF DATE: ORIt: UNIT: EXT: PER Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE a U SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AG! COI ACP TOG TP! MRO 3 4 6 7 ur PnuE9 OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 CLASSIFICATION 10 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM PER -k OBTAINING A MIDDLE EAST SETTLEMENT AND REAFFIRMED THEIR CONF: INFO: FILE 0 INDEX 0 NOINOUI U RRTURNTO 0 IP FILCS READINESS TO MAKE EFFORTS IN THAT DIRECTION. THE COMMUNIQUE AC- CUSED ISRAEL OF "CRUDE FLOUTING" OF THE UN CEASE-FIRE RESOLUTIONS AND NOTED THE "DANGEROUS CONSEQUENCES" OF ISRAEL'S "ADVENTUROUS ACTIONS." MEANWHILE, IN MOSCOW, PREMIER KOSYGIN TOLD. A GUINEAN DELEGATION THAT THE SOVIETS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE "UTMOST ASSISTANCE" TO IMPLEMENT UN RESOLUTIONS ON THE MIDDLE EAST. PRAVDA ALSO EMPHASIZED MOSCOW'S CONTINUING ROLE IN ACHIEVING A MIDDLE'EAST SETTLEMENT.// THE SOVIET WEEKLY NEW TIMES TOUCHED ON THE SENSITIVE SUBJECT OF ARAB FINANCIAL HOLDINGS IN THE WEST BY NOTING THAT SUBSTAN- TIAL SUMS ARE HELD IN US AND WEST EUROPEAN BANKS. 11' SAID "IF THE ARABS WITHDREW ONLY HALF OF THEIR INVEST- MENTS, IT WOULD LEAD TO A SERIOUS UPHEAVAL OF THE F1.iANCES OF MANY WEST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES." THE US WAS NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN THIS REGARD. ALTHOUGH MOSCOW HAS ENDORSED THE USE OF ARAB OIL, IT HAS NOT DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AGE COI ACP TOO TPE MNO OMF 0 0 0 0 0 0 SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM //0 INDEX 0 NOINDEX .i RETURN TO 0 IP PILES MADE SUCH EXPLICIT REFERENCE TO THE SIGNIFICANCE OF PER #. ARAB FINANCIAL RESERVES.// //THE FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTRY HAS REJECTED THE INITIAL DRAFT O' THE EC'S PROPOSED JOINT DEMARCHE TO THE BS. PRESUMABLY PARIS OBJECTED TO THE FIRST PARAGRAPH OF THE PROPOSED TEXT, WHICH NOTED THAT "RECENT MEASURES TAKEN BY ARAB STATES-ARE OF SUCH A NATURE AS TO AFFECT THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY--AND CER- TAIN OF ITS MEMBERS IN PARTICULAR--TO DISTURB PUBLIC OPINION, AND TO HAVE A NEGATIVE EFFECT ON EUROPEAN- ARAB RELATIONS." THE DRAFT WILL PROBABLY BE REVIEWED AGAIN, AND MAY BE SOFTENED, AT THE EC FOREIGN MINIS- TERS' MEETING SCHEDULED FOR 20 NOVEMBER IN COPENHAGEN.// FURTHER PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE AT THE UN IN ASSEMBLING THE PEACEKEEPING FORCE. THE UN EMERGENCY FORCE NOW HAS APPROXIMATELY 2,200 TROOPS IN THE MID- DLE EAST AND ENOUGH PLEDGES.TO.BRING.IT CLOSE TO THE , 7,000-MAN GOAL. NEGOTIATIONS HAVE ALSO REACHED TENTA- DATE: ORIG: UNIT: EXT: Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2 OUTGOING MESSAGE SIGNAL CENTER USE ONLY AGE COI ACP TOO TPI MRO SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM PAGE OP PAGIS CONF: INFO: FILE ?' O INDEX 0 NO INDEX O RITURNTO O IP PILIS TIVE AGREEMENT ON A SPECIAL ASSESSMENT SCALE FOR THE FINANCING OF THE EMERGENCY FORCE. UNEF, HOWEVER, IS STILL WITHOUT ADEQUATE SUPPLIES OR LOGISTIC SUPPORT FOR ITS RAPIDLY GROWING FORCES. {SECRETIE-2 IMPDETH. 25X1A DO/DDO DATE: OIIIG : 25X1 A UNIT: 0 . EXT: . ?562 PER -' Approved For Release 2001/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050069-2