CEASE - FIRE DEVELOPMENTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R000700010001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 25, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 19, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

 cis jcnr o
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Top Secret
Cease-Fire Developments
Top Secret
22 25X1
19 April 1973
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 SOUTH VIETNAM
Desertions in the Territorial
Forces
LAOS
The Military situation
Negotiations Still in Holding
Pattern
CAMBODIA
The Military Situation
Hanoi on Government Shakeup
INTERNATIONAL
Soviets Relaxed
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 Desertions in the Territorial Forces
Some provinces, particularly in the delta,
have reported an increased desertion rate among
the Regional and Popular forces during the past
few weeks. This is in contrast to the first several
weeks of the cease-fire period, when desertions de-
creased.
New and more rigid reporting requirements in
part account for the increase, but officials in some
provinces say there are other reasons. In some
delta provinces, local units are composed largely
of ethnic Cambodians who celebrate their New Year
in April, and many of these have taken off to spend
the holidays with their families. Continued fight-
ing in some regions, decreased air and artillery
support being provided smaller units, and the practice
of sending some local forces far from their home areas,
have lowered morale and encouraged desertions.
At least one province chief has instituted a
series of drastic measures to discourage desertions,
and some local officials believe that tougher roll-
ups and the return of many ethnic Cambodians after
their holiday will bring the units back to strength.
Others, however, are more concerned about the future
and claim that territorial units in their provinces
are critically understrength.
The government's regular combat forces are not
experiencing a comparable increase in desertion
rates, although they face many of the same problems.
In fact, some army units have reported a decreasing
rate since the cease-fire began. As might be ex-
pected, morale remains highest and desertions lowest
in the areas where there has been little or no
fighting.
 The Military Situation
Preliminary reports indicate that North Viet-
namese troops on 19 April overran a government com-
pany 25 miles southeast of Thakhek in the central
panhandle. The incident occurred in an area where
neither side had clear control at the time of the
cease-fire. Additional fighting can be expected as
both sides maneuver r control of villages in. the
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Ne gotiatione StiZZ in Holding Pattern
Despite bellicose statements from Sam Neua on
the bombing at Tha Viang, Lao Communist envoy Phoune
Sipraseuth is continuing to meet Twice daily with
government negotiator Ngon Sananikone in Vientiane.
Ngon reports that little progress is being made at
these sessions. The Communists in effect have re-
pudiated the tentative agreement on the division of
cabinet portfolios by renewing their demands for a
deputy prime ministership and the Ministry of In-
terior. Ngon believes the private sessions will
continue, but that prospects for any immediate prog-
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 The Military Situation
Communist forces on 18 April again attacked the
village of Tram Khnar on Route 3, some 25 miles south
of Phnom Penh. Only light casualties resulted. The
Khmer Communists also kept up their pressure on govern-
ment positions east of the Mekong River near Neak
Luong. In the southwest, the government has tem-
porarily halted truck convoys along Route 4 because
of reports that Communist troops are on the highway.
Hanoi or. Government Shakeup
The reshuffled government in Phnom Penh is no
more to Hanoi's liking than the previous one. In a
broadcast on 18 April, Radio Hanoi called the pro-
posed changes a sham "aimed at solving the govern-
ment's ever more critical internal differences in
the face of heavy political and military defeats."
The broadcast noted that US pressure was behind the
 INTERNATIONAL
Soviets Relaxed
There has been no authoritative Soviet reaction
to recent US and South Vietnamese moves in Cambodia
and Laos. Although the Soviets have reported the:ae
developments and parts of official Vietnamese Commu-
nist statements, the reporting conveys no sense of
crisis, suggesting that the USSR is still anxious
to keep Indochinese problems in the background. In
one of the few routine-level commentaries available
on South Vietnamese incursions into Cambodia, the
commentator ends with the reminder that the Paris
agreements "prove" that the political problems of
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