CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010021-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 3, 2001
• Sequence Number: 21
• Publication Date: September 17, 1971
• Content Type: BULL

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(11ijd,ovei16r Oeleasld' 2D0fp6/O i, C)A1PZDA85 0. P5R0008000A0021--6,
No Porci/;n Mum
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
tate Dept. declassification & release instructions on file
Secret
77 gg tember 1971
Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R0008000J002'~
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Secret
'I'll(! ::1':NTIMI, INI'I:LId(:h:NCE' MILLI, ,'TIN is produced by flue
Director of, Ccnlrtl Intelligence to tnt'nt his responsihilitics for providing
current iu tellif;ctccc bearing on issues of national security to the I'rcsi(lcnt,
the National Security Council, and other senior government officials. It
is produced ill consultation whit the Departments of' State '111 0 Defcnsc.
When, because of the Chile factor, a(lcyurttc consultation with the (lcl);trt-
nient of' primary coact to is not feasible, items or portions thereof are pro-
(hiced by CIA and enclosed ill brackets.
Interpretations of' intclligcncc information in this publication rcpresen!
inlnuxliato and preliminary views which are subject to modification iP1 the
light of' further information and more complete analysis.
Certain intelligence items in this publication may he designated specifically
for no further dissemination. Other intelligence items play be disselllinatc(l
further, but only on a need-to-know basis.
WARNING
This document contains information affecting ill(- national
defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title
18, sections 793 and 79.1, of the US Co(](,, as amended.
Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
GROUP 1
Excluded from automata.
downgrading and
declossificalion
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No. 0223/71
17 September 1971
Central Intelligence bulletin
PAKISTAN: Food situation remains serious in both
wings. (Page 1)
PAKISTAN: Actions to improve political situation
in East Pakistan have had little effect. (Page 2)
SOUTH VIETNAM: Buddhists call for election boycott.
(Page
COMMUNIST CHINA: Trade missions seeking to expand
ties with Western Europe. (Page 4)
DENMARK: Neither government coalition nor Social
Democrats likely to win majority in election. (Page 6)
CEYLON: Political impact of oil refinery strike.
(Page 7)
MAURITIUS: Labor problems trouble coalition govern-
ment. (Page 8)
25X6A
INDOCHINA; Truck movements in Laotian panhandle
Page 9
PERU: Communist-dominated labor confederation backs
away from teachers' strike (Page 10)
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SECt1:x,'.1.'
PAKISTAN: The food situaticn remains serious
with wheat stocks reportedly low in West Pakistan
and distribution problems continuing to plague East
Pakistan.
A study conducted by US officials in. Dacca has
led the US Consulate to conclude that available food-
grains will be just adequate to avert mass starvation
next month. Despite at least a ton-percent reduction
in population resulting from the outflow of refugees
to India, individual consumption is expected to re-
main at an extremely low level at best. It will
depend largely on the internal transport system,
which must move the food from ports and surplus areas
to deficit areas.
Thus far, ho%,ever, transport disruptions have
continuously hampered foodgrain movements within
the province. Moreover, an upsurge in guerrilla
activity, which appears likely as additional per-
sonnel complete their -training in India, could
jeopardize food distribution efforts. The flood
waters now moving down the Ganges River through
India may also hinder transport activity and could
pose a threat to the rice crop.
Meanwhile, West Pakistan, with reduced food
stocks, is approaching the critical December through
April period when food shortages may occur. Ac-
cording to a West Pakistani official, output in
Punjab--which normally produces 75 percent of the
West wing's wheat--is down 20 percent from last
year, and the Punjab government has refused to
supply wheat to other provinces. (CONFIDENTIAL)
17 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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SECRET
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SECRl','1:'
1C
PAKISTAN: The actions President Yahya took
earlier this month to improve the political situa-
tion in East Pakistan have so far had little effect.
On 5 September Islamabad announced an amnesty
for all but a few hundred insurgent leaders. Sev-
eral prominent East Pakistanis ostensibly covered
by the amnesty are still in jail, however, and the
Bengalis currently are inclined to dismiss amnesty
as an empty gesture.
In his first two weeks in office, the new ci-
vilian governor for East Pakistan, A. M. Malik, has
tried to convince his fellow Bengalis that efforts
should be devoted to reconciliation and reconstruc-
tion. Although he has promised protection for ref-
ugees, Hindus, workers, and students, there has so
far been no visible favorable public reaction to
his efforts. F- I
friction between the governor and military leaders
UN officials remain highly concerned about
the security of their personnel who are directing
the international relief operations in East Paki-
stan. The UN personnel have seldom ventured outside
Dacca and are unable to monitor properly the alloca-
tion of the assistance. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
17 Sep 71
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SECRE'1:'
SOUTH VIETNAM: The An Quang Buddhists are
taking steps to oppose actively President Thieu's
election policy.
The An Quang issued a statement yesterday
calling on the Buddhist faithful to boycott the
presidential election. Police later broke up a
protest meeting at the An Quang pagoda in Saigon
organized by a small opposition party that has
ties with some An Quang leaders. A small group
of students clashed briefly with the police.
Although An Quang leaders still seem unlikely
to support violent agitation against the government,
their boycott call will doubtless reduce the number
of voters who participate. Moreover, the activities
of the radicals could add significantly to the al-
ready unsettled political situation. (SECRET NO
FOREIGN DISSEM)
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SECRET
COMMUNIST CHINA: Peking is employing high-
ranking trade missions abroad in an effort to
strengthen economic and political ties with impor-
tant European and other states.
Minister of Foreign Trade Pai Ilsiang-kuo will
lead a delegation next month to France, Italy, and
Algeria. The visits to Paris and Rome are primarily
reciprocal political gestures for the visits to Pe-
king of a French economic minister in July 1970 and
an Italian commercial delegation last May. At the
same time, the Chinese almost certainly intend to
assess more closely the desire frequently expressed
by both states to increase their trade with China.
In Algiers, one likely item of discussion will con-
cern utilization of a recently concluded Chinese
credit to the Boumediene government.
Deputy Foreign Trade Minister Chou Hua-min cur-
rently is visiting Finland as part of a widely
touted good will tour of all Scandinavian countries.
The trip repoztedly is to facilitate Chinese meet-
ings with industrial representatives in order to ex-
pand trade with these states. Chou recently com-
pleted a similar visit to Guyana, where he appar-
ently reinforced Guyanese interest in selling some
industrial raw materials to China.
Chinese textile experts are expected to travel
to Italy, France, and Switzerland later this month,
while the Chinese minister of light industry has
been visiting Yugoslavia over the past week in con-
junction with Peking's first participation in the
Zagreb Trade Fair in over ten years. The latter
visit has not come off as successfully as other Chi-
nese initiatives, largely because of the Sino-Yugo-
slav disagreement over an anti-US Chinese propaganda
display.
Peking sees a number of gains in these trade
initiatives. The Chinese are attempting to exploit
more fully the prospects for an expanding China mar-
ket in order to win support from these countries
17 Sep 71
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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SECRET
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SECRET
for Peking's international political position, par-
ticularly against the Soviet Union and the US. At
the same time, personal contacts with foreign in-
dustrialists will help restore the confidence of
the international business community in that China
was badly damaged during the Cultural Revolution.
Wider trade contacts, especially with developed
European states, may also enable the Chinese to ob-
tain much needed sophisticated equipment at favor-
able prices. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
17 Sep 71
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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SECRET
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DENMARK: Leaders of the three coalition par-
ties as well as the opposition Social Democrats (SDP)
are doubtful of winning a majority in the quadrennial
parliamentary election on 21 September, raising the
prospect of an inherently unstable government.
The lack of a clear-cut difference between the
programs of Prime Minister Baunsgaard's coalition
and former prime minister Krag's SDP is major
reason for widespread public apathy. A contributing
factor is the lack of strong, colorful personalities
in the major parties.
The decisive but not well-articulated issue is
the domestic economy. The election outcome is
likely to be determined by how many voters boycott
the polls or shift to splinter parties to express
their displeasure over the coalition's failure to
check inflation or improve markedly the country's
balance of payments.
The latest opinion polls give the coalition,
which won 54 percent of the vote in 1968, only 47
percent. Coalition leaders are reluctant to form
a minority government, and personal as well as pol-
icy differences appear to rule out adding a fourth
party to the coalition.
The SDP theoretically is willing to form a
minority government, but Krag's attitude will prob-
ably be determined by the showing of the left-wing
Socialist People's Party (SF). Despite personal
and dc?ctrinal differences, the SF might give the
SDP its tacit support in parliament. The August
opinion polls, however, give the SDP only 39 per-
cent of the vote, and the SDP and SF combined 46
to 48 percent.
Foreign policy is not an important factor in
the campaign, with the possible exception of Danish
entry into the European Communities (EC). Leaders
of the SDP, which favors entry, fear some erosion
from their left wing to the SF, which is opposed to
EC membership. (CONFIDENTIAL)
17 Sep 71
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CEYLON: A technicians' strike at Ceylon's
only oil refinery is creating tensions within
Prime Minister Bandarana.ike's coalition government
rAnd threatening the loss of important trade union
support.
The strike began early this month when manage-
ment at the government-owned refinery near Colombo
fired a Communist-backed union leader. After a
two-week shutdown, during which the government was
forced to spend scarce foreign exchange to import
petroleum, the refinery is now back in operation
with a. skeleton crew. Some 100 technicians remain
off the job, however. If the strike does not end
soon, the gove.-nment has plans to import foreign
technicians to assist the management team.
Ceylonese trade unionists are critical of
government handling of the strike and there is
some possibility of sympathy strikes. Relations
between Mrs. Bandaranaike and the Communi.ots are
already strained--an important faction within the
Communist Party would like to leave the three-
party coalition government--and tensions are
building because the party is strongly supporting
the strike.
Mrs. Bandaranaike's Sri Lanka Freedom Party
(SLFP) has a majority in the House of Representa-
tives and her government would not necessarily
fall if the Communist Party deserts the coalition.
However, a split with the Communists could precipi-
tate factional disputes within the SLFP and de-
fections by members of the prime minister's own
party. Her government would be significantly
weakened should she lose the support of the coun-
try's major trade unions. (CONFIDENTIAL)
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0875R000800010021-6
MAURITIUS: Prime Minister Ramgoolam's fragile
coalition government is again being troubled by
serious labor problems.
For the second time in a month, striking dock
workers have paralyzed Port Louis, and there is no
indication that the dispute will soon be resolved.
The strike, which so far has been free of violence,
began almost two weeks ago over petty grievances.
However. workers associated with the Mauritian
Militant Movement (MMM), an important left-wing op-
position party, quickly seized the opportunity to
press employers for recognition of their union in
place of a government-backed organization. MMM
official Paul Berenger, a leader in last month's
crippling strike of transportation, utility, and
dock workers, offered to settle the recognition
question with a workers' referendum. Tho employers
accepted the offer but insisted that the strikers
first return to work. The strikers rejected the
condition and hardened their position with addi-
tional demands.
Although the strike has been restricted so far
to dock workers, there is a strong possibility of a
general work stoppage. Nevertheless, the prime
minister has left the country apparently after being
assured by Berenger that the strike would not spread
to other industries prior to Ramgoolam's return this
weekend.
The government has so far played only a minor
role in the strike, serving primarily as a channel
for messages between employers and strikers. The
government has refrained from using the heavy-handed
tactics that served to harden the strikers' resolve
in last month's crisis,
Regardless of the outcome, the already unpopular
and out-of-touch Ramgoolam administration will prob-
ably continue to lose public support as the people
gradually become polarized between the essentially
conservative government and more radical forces such
as the MMM and its unions. (SECRET)
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25X6A
INDOCHINA: Communist truck movements in the
Laotian panhandle are continuing at the low rainy
season level, although an increase has been noted
in recent weeks. Most of it appears to be related
to road repair in the panhandle area and preparations
for the start of the dry season supply push. Most
roads from the panhandle into South Vietnam and
Cambodia are still in need of major repairs. It is
unlikely that recent serious floods in nor::thern North
Vietnam will delay the start of the dry season supply
effort. Initially, supplies probably will be drawn
from stockpiles in southern North Vietnam. A Radio
Hanoi broadcast on 13 September told transport and
communications workers that despite the demands of
flood relief work, the transportatio,l plan to "serve
the front line" must be carried out. (CONFIDENTIAL)
(continued)
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PERU: In an apparent attempt to disassociate
itself from teachers' union locals still on strike,
the Communist-dominated labor confederation (CGTP)
has reportedly denounced "the provocateurs who wish
to prolong the conflict indefinitely,." The CGTP
statement came just before the government charged
the aritiregime American Popular Revolutionary Al-
liance (APRA) and the "ultra left" with manipulatin,
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