CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010028-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 3, 2001
• Sequence Number: 28
• Publication Date: September 25, 1971
• Content Type: BULL

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No Porc~!/ Dinem
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence bulletin
tate Dept. declassification & release instructions on file
Secret
N2 546
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 Approved For Release 2005/06/O
CIAA-RDP85T00875R000800010028-9
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'I'hc CI:NTBAL, IN'1'l,;l,l,1GIE;NCE BULLETIN is produced by the
Director of Ck'nlral hilclligenwe to nurl his responsibilities fur providing
current intclligcncc bearing on issues of national security to the l'residcnt,
the National Scctn?ity Council, and other senior governnu'nt officials. It
is produced in consultation with the I)ep;u'tou lets of Slatc and Defense.
When, because of, the tinu' factor, iuleciuale c",usttIt'll irnt with the dep:u?t-
ioent of primary concern is not feasible, items or portions thrrcol, are pro-
clnecd by CIA and cnclw:ecf ill brackets.
Inlcrpretatioms of intelligence iofornrttion ill this pmblication rcprescn;
immediate and prcliloinaly, views which arc subject to modification ill the
light of ftii thcr information and more complete analysis.
Certain intclligcncc itenis in this publication may he designated Specifically
I'm no Itn?thcr dissemination. Other intclligcncc items may be clissentinatecl
farther, bat only on a need-to-know basis.
WARNING
This dc,cunlcmt contains inform; tiori affecting the national
defense of, the United States, within the meaning of 'T'itle
1.8, sections 793 and 79.1, of the US Coda, as autendcd.
Its trarSnlission or revelation of, its contents to or rc-
ccipt by an un.'uthorized person is prohibited by law.
GROUP I
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
declossificalion
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No. 0230/7:1.
25 Septemb::r, 1971
Central Intellzgence Bulletin
25X6A
COMMUNIST CHINA: Peking attempts to dampen specula-
tion about crisis in leadership. (Page 1)
SOUTH VIETNAM: Preparations continue for wave of
protest demonstrations. (Page 3)
PAKISTAN: UN relief effort continues to face
if fi ulties . (Page 4)
LEBANON: Government faces its first political
crisis (Page 5)
SENEGAL-GUINEA: Further aggravations in already
straine relations. (Page 7)
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS: Proposals to .
strengthen EC position vis-a-vis Washington (Page 9)
INDOCHINA: Communist road construction (Page 9)
BURMA: Rangoon applies for loans from World Bank
affiliate (Page 10)
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25X1 C
COMMUNIST CHINA: Peking is projecting a "busi-
ness as usual." image in an apparent attempt to dampen
foreign speculation about: a crisis in China's top
leadership.
Premier Chou En-lai has made almost daily ap-
pearances since 16 September and has met on occasion
for several hours with relatively low-level foreign
dignitaries. Several other civilian politburo mem-
bers have made repeated public appearances in the
past week and Vice Premier Li I-Isien-nien traveled to
Hanoi on 24 September. Army logistics chief Chiu
Hui-tso also turned up at a minor diplomatic func-
tion on 22 September--the first time that a military
man on the politburo has surfaced since a major lead-
ership me ting apparently cc)nvpnpd on 12 tember.
Finally, Commu-
nist cadres are claiming that prepara-
tions for the Can on Trace Fair, scheduled to open
on 15 October, are "proceeding as usual."
Despite these efforts, the regime has still
failed to provide a plausible explanation for the
curious chain of events of the past two weeks and
it has yet to publicize an official disclaimer of
the rumors that either Mao or Lin Piao is seriously
ill. There is also no new information on Lin's po-
litical status--a subject that is increasingly be-
coming a topic of press speculation. AFP reports
from Peking; however, that a Foreign Ministry spokes-
man has told some members of the foreign diplomatic
corps that "in a few days they will receive the clue"
as to why National Day celebrations have been cur-
tailed.
The possibility that the current uncertainty
in Peking is due to concern dv Sovipi- in n_ions
25X1 C
25X6A
continues to appear slight.
25 Sep 71
Central Intelligence Bulletin
(continued)
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There is no evidence of a wide-scale deteriora-
tion of security within China. On the morning of
24 September Chinese officials at the Hong Kong bor-
der were refusing to accept travelers destined for
Amoy, a major coastal city in southeast China. Al-
though the armed factional skirmishes which report-
edly broke out in this area in August may be con-
tinuing, it seems more likely that the severe typhoon
which hit the mainland coast yesterday has temporar-
ily disrupted transportation routes in the vicinity
of Amoy. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
25 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 2
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25X1 C
SOUTH VIETNAM: Preparations are continuing
for large--scale demonstrations by radical groups
this weekend.
the demonstrations are to be held in several
major cities, but they apparently will focus on
Saiqon. Some students and veterans reportedly are
coming into the capital from the provinces. Ky is
5X6
helping to finance the demonstrations,
The government is aware of the protest prepa-
rations and can be expected to take pre-emptive
measures, some of which could result in delaying
the planned demonstrations. (SECRET NO FOREIGN
DISSEM)
25 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1 C
25X6
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PAKISTAN: The United Nations relief effort in
East Pakistan continues to face many problems, de-
spite President Yahya Khan's protestations of support.
Yahya told the US ambassador he would again
make it clear to officials in Islamabad and Dacca
that they were to offer all possible assistance to
the UN. A government official earlier had questioned
the advisability of a UN field staff because of the
security problems. Most observers believe, however,
that an effective program requires a substantial
field staff.
The head of UN relief operations in East Pak-
istan reports that his mission is more delicate and
complicated than he had anticipated. He recited
the familiar complaints about a thoroughly disorgan-
ized and inefficient government apparatus in East
Pakistan, the nearly complete disruption of inland
communications and transport, the attL_tude of pas-
sive resistance and non-cooperation from the civilian
population, and the expected growth of violence and
sabotage by the guerrillas. The latter has con-
tinued--five ships including two Pakistani food
25 Sep 71
Central Intelligerce Bulletin 4
25X1 C
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 LEBANON: Growing opposition to a recent gov-
ernment economic decree threatens to confront the
one-year-old Franjiyah government with its first
major political crisis.
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The politically influential Beirut merchants
went on strike on 21 September to protest the de-
cree which raised duties on 450 luxury items. The
strike continues effectively to stagnate trade,
C'although a strike by cab drivers has been headed
off by a promise to redress their specific griev-
ance.~In spite of cabinet opposition, a special
sessio'n'
ession of Parliament has been petitioned by the
requisite majority of its members, and unless a
face-saving compromise can be worked out before-
hand, the session promises to be stormy. Parlia-
ment's strongest progovernment political leaders
are following the lead of Kamal Jumblatt, Lebanon's
most outspoken leftist politician, in attacking
the government decree and pressing for legislative
action.
President Franjiyah has decided to support
the finance minister over the tariff increases,
against the advice of the prime minister, and is
not likely to back down. Even those who strongly
support the government's new economic policies be-
lieve that the finance minister has mishandled the
matter and fear that the President's decision will
damage his standing with the Lebanese people and
give the opposition more ammunition.
The pending debate in Parliament will be the
first major test for the Franjiyah government, and
a non-confidence vote is a strong possibility. Par-
liament members are already irritated with Franjiyah
for naming a 12-man cabinet lacking traditional rep-
resentation from the assembly's ranks.
Meanwhile, because of the continuing agitation
the finance minister may have to postpone his visit
to Washington next week to attend meetings of the
25 Sep 71
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International Monetary Fund and to discuss arms
deals with US off icials.r Alternatively, the fi-
nance minister could be allowed to depart the scene
while other officials try to modify the effect of
some provisions of the decree without rescinding it.;
(CONFIDENTIAL)
0
25 Sep 71
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25X6A
SENEGAL-GUINEA: The recent arrest of several
Cuineans in Senegal threatens to aggravate further
the already strained relations between Conakry and
Dakar.
I seven or
eight Guineans--including some embassy personnel--
were arrested on 16 September on charges of subver-
sive activities against the Senghor regime. The
Senegalese Government on 23 September confirmed the
arrest of a "Guinean spy and several accomplices,"
but did not allude to embassy personnel. Probably
in reaction to the incessant charges by Conakry
that Senegal actively supports anti-Toure dissidents,
the arrested spy's confession has been widely pub-
licized in Senegal's press and radio.
Despite the deterioration of relations with
Conakry, Senegalese President Senghor has been re-
luctant to initiate a complete break with the Toure
regime. The decision to publicize this latest epi-
sode probably reflects his growing impatience with
the Guinean leadership and its protracted propaganda
campaign. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
25 Sep 71
Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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New Communist Road Construction
'' `?Done Ha
Khe
,~Sanh
,S September
construction SOUTH VIETtV,,4h,-
QUANG NAM
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INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS: A French
official has followec'I-up the :yew tack taken in Presi-
dent Pompidou's press conference that the committee
of EC central bank governors could be empowered to
defend the Community against short-term capital, move-
ments and in "concert" manage EC reserves. If ef-
fected, such moves could strengthen the EC's bar-
gaining position vis-a-vis Washington. Bank of
France Governor Wormser told US Embassy officials
that the US should not expect to correct its large
balance-of-payments deficits without restrictions
on US capital outflows. Wormser also indicated
the French feel that the Washington meetings--the
Group of Ten Deputy Finance Ministers today, the
Ministers on Sunday, and the full International
Monetary Fund membership starting on Monday--should
at least reach agreement on negotiating procedures
to resolve the current impasse. He indicated sup-
port of a Swiss National Bank proposal that a select
panel be formed to determine each government's po-
sition and possible areas of common agreement.
(CONFIDENTIAL)
INDOCHINA: Recent photography shows that-the
Communi-ots are closing the final gap in the new road
through the western end of the DMZ into the Khe Sanh
region of South Vietnam. Much of it is motorable
only to tracked construction vehicles, but it could
quickly be upgraded to become part of the logistic
road net leading into this region from the Laos pan-
handle and the A Shau valley in South Vietnam.. The
new road could serve as an alternate to existing
roads through Laos. The weather is drier in northern
South Vietnam during the summer months while heavy
rains disrupt supply routes to the west in Laos.
(SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
(continued)
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25X6A
BURMA: Rangoon's intention to apply for loans
from the International Development Association (IDA),
an affiliate of the World Bank, marks a major policy
departure. Burma in the past has relied on UN, re-
gional, and bilateral aid agreements, and has been
reluctant to turn to he World Bank largely because
of its survey and inspection requirements. If ap-
proved, the IDA loans will be used mainly to finance
infrastructure development, and thus will do little
to meet the critical foreign exchange shortage. The
latter problem was temporarily alleviated last week
by a $6.5-million credit from the International
Monetary Fund. (CONFIDENTIAL)
25 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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