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December 19, 2016
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December 10, 2001
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September 29, 1971
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Ap'p) ve4)E61 Re(g4?6/ y105/06109): glA-1 Dp~8~ pU875R00080001 No I o eipn I)i.iun DIRECTORATE OF INTIiLLIGENCL' Central Intelligence bulletin State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file Secret N2 605 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800050M5ember 19 71 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010031-5 Secret 'I'll(, Ch,N'1'ii,1:, IN1'1,;I,LI(:I;NC:I; 13U1,LP'I'IN is produced pry lit;! Director of, Central Intelligence to meet Ili:; resltrntsibilities for Iiro idinfr current intelligence bearing on issues of national sccnrity to the l'resident, the National Security Council, and other scoior governnu'ul officials. It is Iirodoccd in consollation with the I)cltarinaettts of' State and Defense. When, because of, the time factor, adccfrIate consultation with ill(- cl('part- ntertt of pirint:u?y concern is not feasible, items or portions thcrcol are Iiro- clnced by CIA and enclosed in brackets. Interfiretaticris of' intelligence information in this publication tcln?escnt immediate and 'nrcliminary views which are subject to nioclificatiott ill the light of further information and note ;!oinp Iete analysis. Certain intelligence items in this Publication may 'lie designated specifically I,(-, no further tlisscininalion. Other intelligence items may be disseminated further, but only on a need-to-know basis. WARNING This document contains information afl(eting the national defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title 18, sections 793 and 79.1, of the US Code, as amended. Its transmission or revelation of its contents to o: re- ceipt by an un;tuthorir.cd person is prohibited by law. GROUP 1 Excluded from automatic downgrading and declassification Approved For Release 2005/06~Io-tDP85T00875R000800010031-5 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010031-5 SECRE'1.' No. 0233/71 29 September 1971 central Intelligence Bulletin X6 25X6 COMMUNIST CHINA: Official statement said to be imminent. Page 1) SOUTH VIETNAM: Prime Minister Khiem criticizes Thieu's election decision. (Page 3) LAOS: Government forces consolidate recent gains. Page 5) INDIA: Foreign relief aid falling behind refugee infIi]x_ (Pasta A) TURKEY-CYPRUS: Rotation of Turkish troops probably will roceed without serious incident. (Page 9) PERU: Government to increase cooperation in combating drug traffic, (Page 10) KOREA: Pyongyang attempting to appear more flexible in contacts with the South. (Page 12) BELGIUM: Government measures to stimulate economy. (Page 13) SOMALIA: Conspiracy trial reflects President's fear of coup attempt. (Page 14) CHILE-USSR: Military credit (Page 15) X1B TURKE': Dissension in the government (Page 16) IRAQ: Ruling circle shrinks (Page 16) GUYANA: Bauxite arrangement (Page 17) Approved For Release 2005/00 ff DP85T00875R000800010031-5 Approved For Release 2005/06/IW', PP85T00875R000800010031-5 25X1 C COMMUNIST CHINA: The official explanation for at least some of the circumstances behind the regime's decision to curtail National Day celebrations may be presented today. According to a Canton television announcement monitored yesterday, the station is scheduled to carry a special relay from Peking at 0700 hours Washington time, almost certainly concerning National There is some tentative evidence that the un- settled situation in China may be having an impact 25X6 on the con%_ act of foreign r ina s foreign trace minister will visit only France during his current trip abroad, canceling previously planned visits to Italy and Algeria. The minister left for Paris on 27 September and is expected to remain there until 11 October when he will return directly to China. Italian and Algerian officials as late as early September were preparing to receive the minister, and they have not yet confirmed the can- cellation. (continued) 29 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/0~t9(~I-,F~JP85T00875R000800010031-5 25X6 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010031-5 SECRET There has been no reported change in Emperor Haile Selassie's scheduled trip to China. He is still expected to arrive in Peking on 6 October, and an advance party has already departed Addis Ababa. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM) 29 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010031-5 SECRET 25X1 C 25X1 C Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA- DP85T00875R000800010031-5 SE C RE'l' SOUTH VIETNAM: Prime Minister Khiem, who has worked closely with President Thieu in the past and is the President's alternate running mate, is in- creasingly taking the view that Thieu's decision to forge ahead with an uncontested election is a mis- take. Several days hiem felt leu was no longer a bye to lea the country effectively because of mounting popular opposition against him. Khiem commented that some politicians who have been identified with Thieu in the past would be well advised to dissociate themselves licly from the President. Khiem observed that the current situa- tion reminded him of the days just before the fall of Diem, but he did not anticipate a coup now be- cause the US Government has made it clear that it opposes any such move. X1C So far Khiem has been playing his cards close to his vest. He has not spoken out openly against Thieu or been drawn into any of the myriad of anti- Thieu opposition fronts that have mushroomed re- cently. He has not spoken out forcefully in support of Thieu either, however, reservin some measure of independence. iem probably hopes subtly to put some distance between himself and the President and avoid being dragged down with Thieu should the ,President's position become untenable. Khiem is ambitious himself and may well want to keep his own political options open. He appar- ently resents the loss of some of his former stand- ing with Thieu and the fact that he was not picked as Thieu's primary running mate; he has talked of running for a Senate seat in 1973 and the presidency in 1975. Khiem might even feel that he could become a presidential alternative sooner if Thieu stumbles badly. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM) 29 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/09 C6R T00875R000800010031-5 25X1 C 25X1 C 25X1 C Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010031-5 SECRET drat, sun (ICS vnpr detlOgKhouunpvillo 0 Aren of maps 0 Government-held location C) Communist held locatior. CONFIDENTIAL 551923 9-71 CIA Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010031-5 SECRET Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010031-5 SECRET LAOS: Government forces are consolidating their recent gains in both north and south Laos. Some 400 Lao Army soldiers are now holding the to:-Tn of Muong Soui, west of the Plaine des Jarres, which was occupied by irregular assault forces on 24 September. The town can serve as a base to sup- port Vang Pao's irregular units on the Plaine des Jarres. Just north of the Plaine, the irregulars have so far been unsuccessful in their attempts to reoccupy high ground positions near Phou San. US pilots report that the North Vietnamese ap- pear to be moving increasing amounts of supplies to forward positions north and east of the Plaine. The government has launched a drive to clear enemy units from high-ground positions northeast of Luang Prabang. During the last dry season, the North Vietnamese used this area as a base for launch- ing attacks on the royal capital, and the government hopes to deny it to the enemy during the coming dry season. In south Laois, government forces are consoli- dating their positions in and around Paksong; they have occupied most of the important high-ground po- sitions near the town. Determined resistance by elements of the 9th NVA Regiment, however, has so far thwarted all government efforts to open Route 23 between Ban Phak Kout and Paksong. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM) 29 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/095 itA-RPT5T00875R000800010031-5 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010031-5 SECRET INDIA: The refugee influx from East Pakistan shows no sign of abating, but foreign relief aid is not keeping pace. Indian officials and foreign observers agree that the current rate of refugee immigration is about 30,000 a day. According to Indian data, the refugee population passed the nine million mark last week. Sources in India expect an increased refugee flow next month when traditional crossing points, blocked for weeks by flood waters, reopen. 25X1X Aid pledged for the refugees now amounts to slightly over $200 million. Some $114 million has been extended through the UN, and $92 million has been pledged in bilateral arrangements between India and other governments or through contribu- tions by voluntary agencies. US aid accounts for almost 40 percent of the total extended to date. Despite outside aid, India has been forced to pay $300 million--well above the amount of aid India has received to date. The World Bank reportedly estimates that another $400 million will be needed in the next six months even if the influx stops. (CONFIDENTIAL) 29 Sep 71 Central Inte!.igence Bulletin 6 Approved For Release 2005/06/09: : CIA ECgDP85T00875R000800010031-5 25X6 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010031-5 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010031-5 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010031-5 SECRET BULGARIA YUGO. on troon rat t v i r \ ALQANIA p \ l i ~s Ankara L r, GREECE J r~)` T U R K E Y Alhen ? - 1Sorni-annual r. /'< r-w-, i~ Iskenderun b i -l Grote CYPRUSr- '%J SYRIA -~: 1,Famagu. to LEBANON ISRAE JORDAN 1 /~'C:ANAL EGYIT Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010031-5 SECRET Approved For Release 2005/06/09j9F85T00875R000800010031-5 TURKEY-CYPRUS: The scheduled rotation today of Turkish troops on Cyprus most likely will take place without serious incidents, but several recent developments have raised the potential for trouble. The semi-annual rotation--usually involving a force numbering between 300-400 men escorted by naval craft from Iskenderun to Famagusta--is often accom- panied by rumors and sometimes b fears of a possible military confrontation. Although the rumors have lessened and tensions appear to have eased in recent days, several prob- lems directly related to the rotation remain. The Turks finally gave eleventh hour assurances--demanded by the Greek Cypriots--that their naval escort craft will remain out of sight of land. There is yet an apparent impasse over some of the equipment that the Turks want to bring to the island with the rotating force and roblems ma arise when the equipment is :noaded. Nevertheless, with high-level diplomatic talks regarding Cyprus pending in New York and with some of Ankara's top military leaders absent from Turkey, it is doubtful that the Turks would make any overt effort to exploit the current rotation to spark a new crisis. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM) 29 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X6 25X6 Approved For Release 2005/0NV(.rtI DP85T00875R000800010031-5 Approved For Release 2005/06V4'16IP85T00875R000800010031-5 PERU: The government is willing to increase its cooperation with the United States in combating traffic in illegal drugs. On 24 Ceptember Interior Minister Richter in- formed the US ambassador that he agreed in principle to the re-establishment of an office of the US Bu- reau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs in Lima. He added that the government recently had discovered an extensive narcotics ring within the Ministry of Interior and that 18 members of the special investi- gative police now are under detention. In the last several weeks Peruvian authorities have seized al- most 100 pounds of cocaine and destroyed 18 cocaine paste laboratories. The government estimates that 25,000 Peruvian families earn their livelihood from growing coca leaves, and more than $200 million is invested in coca plantations. of the 10 million kilograms of coca leaf produced, 10 percent is exported legally and the rest is used illegally in Peru, primarily by highland Indians, or exported illicitly. Al- though the government is willing to cooperate to stop the illicit traffic out of the country, only extensive social and economic changes could make significant inroads into the use of coca by the In- dians. (CONFIDENTIAL) 29 Set) 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06fM(ij+JDP85T00875R000800010031-5 25X6 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010031-5 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010031-5 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010031-5 Sl(14R.1~;'I' KOREA: Pyongy.tnq is aL-tempLing to appear more flexible on Nor. Lh-Sou',ah contacts. In an unusually lengthy and nonpolemical inter- view granted the Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun on 25 September, Premier Kim Il-song re erated the principal elements of Pyongyang's eight-point pro- gram for unification put forward last April. He do- parted from past formulations, however, by implying that North Korea would abrogate its mutual defense agreements with China and the Soviet Union if South Korea would sever its military ties with the US. He indicated that Pyongyang would do this if the treat- ies "proved an obstacle to peaceful unification." Kim wont on to point out that he had already made previous concessions to the South by agreeing in his 6 August statement to taD.s with the ruling Dem- ocratic Republican Party. He urged that a dialogue on the negotiations begin on 1 October. Pyongyang clearly is trying to maintain the propaganda initiative at the current Red Cross talks. By offering to take steps that it knows Seoul will not follow, Pyongyang is also laying the groundwork for placing the onus on the South Koreans should the current talks bog down or fail to hold out a reason- able prospect for eventual negotiations on unifica- tion. Pyongyang obviously saes little risk in its latest gambit, knowing that .nfluential elements in Seoul have misgivings about the current Red Cross contacts and that this has made the Pak government move slowly and cautiously. According to a Seoul press report on 27 September, a spokesman of the South Korean Foreign Ministry rejected Kim's proposal. The 25 September interview also afforded Kim an opportunity to spell out in the most specific terms to date Pyongyang's endorsement of the prospective visit of President Nixon to Peking. Kim used much the same line of reasoning employed in his initial 6 August endorsement but went on to :stipulate that while the visit may temporarily ease tensions in Asia it would have no impact on Pyongyang's attitude toward the US so long as American forces remained on Korean soil. (CONFIDENTIAL) 29 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010031-5 SECRET Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010031-5 S1?CZ1:!;'1 BELGIUM: The government has taken measures to stimulate economic growth. The economy currently is experiencing sagging domestic and export demand following the 1969-70 boom. Consumption has tapered off and, during the first five months of 1971, private savings have in- creased rapidly. Exports--equivalent to about 45 percent of gross national product--are stagnating as Belgian producers have postponed investment de- cisions and revised plans downward in reaction to economic slowdown in other EC countries and to the current international monetary situation. To stimulate exports, the government has reduced the temporary export tax ahead of schedule. Although the reduction is supposed ti apply uniformly to se- lected products regardless of country of destination, the selection is expected to include a disproportion- ately large number of products exported to the US, the most important being steel. This measure, de- signed in part to offset the competitive loss oc- casioned by the US surcharge and the upward drift of the Belgian franc, will exacerbate Belgium's budget deficit for the remainder of this year. Additional measures to stimulate demand include a reduction of the discount rate, removal of credit ceilings, and the suspension of instructions to com- mercial banks not to increase foreign indebtedness. With the lifting of this suspension, the government hopes that an inflow of foreign capital will not only stimulate the economy, but also aid efforts by the Belgian and Dutch central banks to maintain the franc/guilder exchange rate within the limits spec- ified in the recent Benelux monetary arrangement. (CONFIDENTIAL) 29 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 13 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010031-5 SECRET Approved For Release 2005/06/09 1Q4-?RP, 5T00875R000800010031-5 SOMALIA: The conspiracy trial of two generals is the latest indication of President Siad's growing :;pprehen ion over the possibility of moves against his regime. The powerful National Security Court is cur- rently trying Generals Gaveire and Ainanshe, both former members of the ruling Supreme Revolutionary Council, and eight other individuals arrested last May for antigovernment plotting. The government is asking the death penalty for the generals as well as for three colonels and a former cabinet minister. In other recent moves designed to discourage coup plotting, the government has purged 12 other mili- tary officers, arrested several local employees of the US Embassy for antigovernment activity, and ex- pelled a number of foreigners, including a US Em- bassy architect charged with plotting against the Siad government. The trial could trigger reactions from those tribal, military, and other elements opposed to the government. Gaveire once held the defense portfolio, and before his arrest he was Siad's chief rival as well as the leading spokesman for disgruntled tribal groups that lost much of their influence after the military seized power in October 1969. (CONFIDEN- TIAL) 29 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/O E Dp85T00875R000800010031-5 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010031-5 S.ECZE':I' NOTES CHILE-USSR: The Chilean Army high command ap- parently =is pleased by the reported extension of a 25X1 C '25X1 C Soviet military credit on favorable terms. _ encouraged by President Allende in its eagerness to update its antiquated material and add to its weap- onry, recently sent a high-level mission to Moscow. That visit led to reports that credit had been ex- tended and agreement had been reached to exchange army attaches. By playing on the army's very real need for new equipment, Allende has moved forward in his campaign to attract the army's loyalty and simultaneously to de-emphasize its dependence on the West. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM) 25X1 C 25X1 B (continued) 29 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/099?,$5T00875R000800010031-5 T e C ., lean rm y, Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010031-5 SECRET TURKEY: The resignation of two cabinet mem- bers--the ministers of communications and natural resources--in the past two days suggests that dis- sension is increasing within the government. Ru- mors earlier this month of imminent cabinet changes had prompted Prime Minister Erim to issue public denials. Erim apparently has decided that he needs a more realistic political balance in his cabinet to speed parliamentary endorsement of his long- awaited reform program which was one of the basic demands of the military when they intervened last March to force the resignation of Prime Minister Demirel. (CONFIDENTIAL) IRAQ: The ruling circle in Baghdad continues to grow smaller with the dismissal yesterday of Vice President Ammash and Foreign Minister Shaykhli from their civilian posts and the Revolutionary Com- mand Council (RCC). This action presumably is part of the continuous struggle for ultimate control in Baghdad in which Saddam Tikriti, RCC deputy chair- man and deputy secretary general of the governing Ba'th Party, is said to have the upper hand. Tikriti has been at odds with Ammash and others, including President Bakr, who reportedly is ailing and whose position of power also is uncertain. (CONFIDENTIAL) (continued) 29 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 16 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010031-5 SECRET Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010031-5 SECRET GUYANA: Guybau, the government-owned bauxite operation, has rejected ALCAN's marketing offer in 25X6 favor of a more extensive arrangement with Philipp Brothers of New York. The US company will market Guybau's entire output of bauxite and alumina after 25X6 1 January 1972 and it w 11 ' d c' b i GL guy au in obtaining financial and technical assistance. it remains to be seen whether profitable markets can be found for the ore, which is in worldwide oversupply, and whether potential shipping diffi- culties can be resolved. (CONFIDENTIAL) 29 Sep 71. Central Intelligence Bulletin 17 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010031-5 SECRET