CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010038-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 10, 2001
• Sequence Number: 38
• Publication Date: October 8, 1971
• Content Type: BULL

Release 2005166/09 :CIA-RDP85TQ0$75R0008U0010Q~8-8
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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
I. ICJ `.I
7580008000 At
No l orriru I)iuem
Central Intelligence bulletin
State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file
Secret
N?_ 604
8 Octo er 1971
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Secret
The (;h;N'I'ItAl, /N7'1?/ l !(:KN(;h; 8111,1 I;i'IN is I?o(luced I)s, the
Director of (;(mint Inlellil,e11ce to tucct his resluntsihililies for providing
ccu?I?cnt inlcIlil;cncc ltcalilI ant issncs of national sccority to the I'resi(I(ut,
the National Security (;onocil, mid other senior goverlillicill officials. It
is liro(lueecl in coost'Italiol( with the I)cli;uttnents of Sate and I)ch-nsc.
\\'hen, lre(an5c of the Iiluc factor, n(Ieclu:tlr ccatsttltalioo with the (Icpart-
IIU'u1 o1 I)ritnat?y concern is not feasible, iienls or portions thereof :nr 111'o-
(Iucc(I I)y (;I/ an(I enclosed it) brackets.
lnl(rltrctatiolls of in;cllif;(neu infoltuation ill t!tis publication rclncsenl
itttncc(liate .111(1 I)r(lin,in:o?\' yi(ws whrc?h arc Subject to mollification ill the
lit~Ll of farther infurnrtlion :111d nulre contl>letc analysis.
(:crl:titt intelligence itetllS in this ftctltlicalion tray he (I(sif;I lI((I specifically
for no Itirtlu ? (1i'?:? entinalio11. Other inteliigcoce ileitis I~c:ty be (li+senlinatc(I
further, but only on a need-to-kltoy' basis.
\'VAftNIN(
This (Iocvulcnt contains information affecting the national
(Icclisc of the Ultitc(l States, within the Incaoiog of 'l'ithe
I8H, sections 74)3 and 74)?I, of the US (;o(Ic, as :unen(le(l.
Its IralIsntissioll or revelation of its contents to or rc-
ccipt by an u11anthorize(1 p(?rson is pt?ohibi(('d by law.
1-oi UP 1
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
declossifcution
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No. G241/71
8 October. 1.9 71
Central Intelligence B*mlletin
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IRAN: Government imposes stringent security ar-
rangements for E~nni.versary celebration. (Page 1)
EAST PAKISTAN: Port congestion delays distribution
of foodgrains. (Page 3)
TUNISIA: Plans for ruling party congress. (Page 4)
AUSTRIA: Court ruling on parliamentary election
pending. (Page 51
DENMARK: Prospect of Social Democratic minority
government (Page 7;
BURMA - COMMUNIST CHINA: Chinese economic aid
resumes (Page 7)
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SLCtJ?;'.F
.IRAN: The two-week-long celebrations commemo-
rating 1-he 2,500th anniversary cf the Persian mon-
archy will i.'vo.lve the most stringent security ar-
rangements ever seen in Iran.
The festivities beginning Monday provide an
unprecedented opportunity for enemies of the gov-
ernment to embarrass the regime through terrorist
acts.. The government is sparing no effort to thwart
any planned terrorism.
Government security forces appear able to pre-
vent large-scale disruptions. Terrorists, however,
probably could stage some isolated incidents, pos-
sibly including the abduction or assassination of
lower-ranking foreign visitors not under heavy se-
curity protection. (SECRET)
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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LAST PAKISTAN: Port. congestion is delaying
emergency foodgrain deliveries.
The movement inland of foodgrains from the major
port of Chittagong slowed 30 percent last week after
some improvement during September. Shipments through
Chalna have not increased since August. On 6 Octo-
ber, there were eight ships off Chittagong and 18
off Chalna awaiting unloading berths.
According to a UN assistant secretary general
presently in Dacca, the government of East Pakistan
is deliberately slowing foodgrain imports this month
because movement up-country is being frustrated by
the shortage of pilots and tugs, delayed arrivals
of coasters from abroad, and disruptions in rail and
road transport: by guerrilla action. The government
has planned to import 200,000 tons of foodgrains per
month through December to meet anticipated shortages,
and this cutback will reduce food availability in
the critical period before the large December crop
is harvested.
US officials in Dacca, however, believe the
major cause of the sl'.;wdown is poor port management.
No single official is responsible for all port ac-
tivities and much time is lost awaiting administra-
tive coordination while shipping lies idle. Unless
immediate steps are taken. food will spoil at the
ports while people up--country go hungry. (CONFI-
DENTIAL)
8 Oct 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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TUNISIA: A major effort will be made during
next week's congress of the Destourian Socialist
Party, Tunisia's only political organization, to
maintain parry unity.
The more than 1,000 delegates will have little
opportunity for debate in well-managed plenary se--
sions which will be used for routine presentations
of reports and approval of resolutions adopted by
the various commissions. Any real discussion will
occur inside the closed sessions of the various
commissions concerned w'.th constitutional amendments,
patty structure and statutes, general and economic
policy, national organizations, youth and housing.
The most significant issues which might arouse
acrimonious debate revolve around constitutional
amendments on presidential succession and increased
authority for the present rubber-stamp National As-
sembly. President Bourguiba had raised the succes-
sion issue but now, for the moment at least, seems
satisfied with the present arrangement, which pro-
vides that the prime minister succeed in the event
of the death or incapacitation of the president. He
also is reported to have vetoed a proposal that the
assembly be empowered to overturn the government
with a motion of censure or voce of no .onfidence,
although he approved some increased authority for
the assembly.
Aware of the potential opposition he might face
from the reformist faction, Bourguiba would not go
through with the congress were he not assured that
his strength and prestige are still strong enough
to win on all the important issues, As extra in-
surance eight leading student dissidents have been
expelled or suspended from party membership, re-
formist leader Ahmed Mestiri has been dismissed from
his post as minister of interior, and labor leader
Habib Achour has been publicly chastised. (CONFI-
DENTIAL'
8 Oct 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
SECRET
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SEC.I.ZB'I'
AUSTRIA: The electorate wil.1. not learn until
next week at the earliest whether the new and en-
larged parliament they are to elect Sunday will be
confirmed by the courts.
Early this summer, the opposition People's Party
in a suit filed with the Constitutional Court chal-
lenged the legality of any election based on the 1961
census figures. The 1971 census, released unoffi-
cially at the provincial level, reflects an east-to-
west population shift, which would cost the Social-
ist bailiwick of Vienna about four seats. These
should go to People's Party strongholds in more con-
servative western Austria. The official 1971 census
results will be released by the Cent--al Office of
Statistics this weekend; the court is to rule on 14
October. Mo::t legal experts do not expect the courts
to invalidate the electoral results.
Few significant issues have emerged during the
month-long campaign,. Socialist Chancellor Kreisky
remains confident that his party will acquire an
absolute majority. The Socialists have boasted that
Kreisky, despite his government's minority status,
has enacted an electoral law fair to all parties,
cut military service from nine to six morths, and
abolished a ten-pcrc.nt surtax instituted by the
previous conservative government.. Kreisky, however,
has had to take some pains to explain the current
five-percent rate of inflation.
The highlight of the campaign was a TV debate
last weekend between Kreisky and People's Party
chairman Schleinzer, The latter improved his image
and his party's unpromising electoral prospects by
matching the form;dahle forensic skill of the ebul-
lient chancellor.,
Although Kreisky is known to favor a coalition
with the small Freedom Party, if indeed a coalition
becomes necessary, in the debate he also suggested
the possibility of postelectoral cooperation with
8 Oct 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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SECZE':i'
the Peo '
over-ai-i Voter pre erence or
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a gran coalition has declined from 33 to 25 percent.
More important, only a third of the Socialist rank
and file favor a coalition with either party, the
Freedom Party being the least desirable partner by
far. Freedom Party supporters, despite their con-
servative political views, favor an alliance with
Kreisky by 4 1/2 to 1. (CONFIDENTIAL)
8 Oct 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 6
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IS E-,' C it Ili J.,
DENMARK: Social Democratic Party leader Krag
probably will announce lo.rmation of a minority gov-
ernment over the weekend. Because the Danish par-
liamentary election on 21 September was inconclu-
sive, formation of a new government was delayed
pending the balloting in the Faroe Islands earlier
this week. In the 179-member parliament, Krag will
have the backing of the 70 deputies of his own
party, two of the four deputies from Greenland. and
the Fai'oes, and the support on certain issues of
the left-wing Socialist People's Party's 17 depu-
ties. Since 1945, Danish governments have had an
average duration o 30 months, and all but two have
been minority administrations. Krag's government
is not expected to survive much beyond next year's
referendum on Danish entry into the European Com-
munities. (CONFIDENTIAL)
BURMA - COMMUNIST CHINA: The resumption of
Chinese aid to Burma substantially restores rela-
tions to the level that existed before the anti-
Chinese .riots in Rangoon in 1967. The two countries
on 7 October formalized an agreement in pL nciple
reached during General Fe Win's visit to Peking in
August. The $60 million of credits unused at the
time the aid program was broken off in 1967 will
now be available again to the Burmese Government.
The time limits both for utilization of the loans
and for interest-free repayment have been extended.
(CONFIDENTIAL)
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt
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The United States Intelligence Board on 7 Oc-
tober 1971 approved the following national intel-
ligence estimate:
NIE-70-71 "Troubles in East Africa"
(SECRET)
8 Oct 71 Central Intclligcnce Bulletin
i~s~ Jf41~GLT~Y.(I I~~?k'~
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SECRET