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Approved For12e1ease 20Q5106109:CIA-RDP85T04875R000$OOQ10057-7 ( '14 Approved or Release 2005/0604' CILRDh867OO875 000800010057-7 Secret No lv,rrirn Uiurrm DI ItL'CTOItATE OF INT'ELLIGE'NCE Central Lntelliaeonce Bulletin State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file Secret 0 Nove%Ur 1971 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010057-7 Approved For Release 2005/O W9 : CI RDP85T00875R000800010057-7 ecre Ihr i:l:,~'"1'li~l!? 1,1''1'1;I,IJ(:1;,ti'(;1: llttl,l,l;'1'1,1' is Inn(hur(I II, Ow I)!rrelnr Ill (:rr(tt11l l,4telli;rilcr to 1111rt his tr?.Iluti il,ilith??; lilt IlloOlilig (utrrnt inlrlli)rrnre hratitlf., fill (if It:rlirttutl ?,rrrItil%? In Ihi? I'tr?.itlrt4l, tltr 1nt(nnal `ircntily (:rnnu il. :Intl r(111r r srflinr g1tv(?rnnn'nt ullirial+. II i, Ilrn(hu r(1 in rt(::'IIltalintl with fill, I)rlt:,rlnn nh: III SL41r a11(1 t )rlrn,r, 11'111,11, hrr:ut,r (If Ili,, tilnr? 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IA III,- Unitr(1 :itafr,, iihin Ihr n4r:Uliul; Ill l itir, 18, .(?rtinn, 71):1 and 794. of fit(, tiff (:rule, :I' 1itn,?n(Ir(I. its tr:utsnti,'iUn or rev(?I:Iti(rn u) it', cu,4trnt?. to (II' II- ccil)t by an ,1,4:,4ithurizr(I 1). t?cnn is Ilrullillitecl by law, GROUP 1 Excluded from automatic downproding and drein t ficatu'on Approved For Release 2005/0& CrtRDP85T00875R000800010057-7 Approved For Release 2005/QI/ 9pcjLL1.RDP85T00875R000800010057-7 No. 0264/71 4 November 1971 Central Inlelligence Bulletin INDIA-PAKISTAN: Mrs. Gandhi probably will stress need for ear y settlement in East Pakistan. (Page 1) CAMBODIA: Government forces facing strong Communist resistance on Route 6. (Page 3) CHILE: Allende cri+:icizcs performance of his coali- tion supporters. (Page 4) EAST GERMANY: Honecker fails to l.-esolve economic problems. (Page 5) litELAND: Lynch government faces vote of confidence. Page 6) ECUADOR-US: Further harassment of US fishing boats likely, (Page 7) ROMANIA-IRAQ: Bucharest agrees to aid Iraqi oil in- dustry. (Page 8) UN - MIDT)LE EAST: Reduction in food rations in refugee camps. (Page 9) YUGOSLAVIA-BULGARIA: Belgrade increases pressure over Macedonia issue . (Page 10) UN-PAKISTAN: Yahya agrees to U1,41 personnel long East wing border (Page 11) TURKEY: Political crisis eases (Page 11) SWEDEN: Opposition challenges Palme's reform bill (Page 12) Approved For Release 2005/g n9R2 F1RDP85T00875R000800010057-7 Approved For Release 2005/06/Q~~, (Gl fill j P85T00875R000800010057-7 25X6 INF IA-P K1:J'1'AN: I'rinu' Mitnint t r. c;an(i)1i, durincj hor t.a3,)ia iiiWac;li iii{Lon he clinni.ri~{ tr,clay, will l~r.o1~- .ibly siLr.cO:;:; the s?',,cl to cex(_,rt more 1)rest;ure on Is- lamabad to nugatlllle an e;.;rly pe.lJLJcal :;f!t:}:l(_`rlent of the rrit;in in 1;ant. I'akcJ.:3t:an. .In Lirusse.1:;, Vienna, and London, Mrs. Gandhi did not deviate from her .in::;i.:;tence that: time only solution lien in a political. accommodation between .I n l.asnabad and the e 1c!cLed reprenen tatil-es of the East Done{alit; . :;he has followed the line that India is the innocent victim of 1'akis;tan's internal con- flict and that the continuing{ flow of refugees into India has forced New Delhi to insist that the inter- national community press West Pakistan to create conditions conducive to the refugees' return. She has dismissed as palliatives suggestions for Indo- Pakistani discussions, troop withdrawals, or the posting of UN observers on the fro,it:.ers. Mrs. Gandhi admitted she was not enthusiastic about an independent Bangla Desh because it prob- ably would bo strongly leftist, but she neverthe- less considers independence inevitable. In Washington, Mrs. Gandhi is likely to main- tain that support for the government of West Paki- stan only delays a political settlement. She may also ask the US to use its influence to obtain the release of East Bengali leader Sheikh Mujibur Rah- man. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM) 4 Nov 71 Central Intelligrncr Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/W ftDP85T00875R000800010057-7 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010057-7 Slt;(.;lt' L' CAMBODIA: Route 6 Area Kunipnng Thmat ?thuay r' - ~ rrrvrt irlll~'il'. (rrl(r . Runrlong~ t.nemy auNnlllctl Lm-my ambmh Kamponp l ~t,vr rnmunt Chhnang Twig Kou 1?ru , .ulv.ulr. , n Chup Kompono plantation Chars SECRET T t r;rr?.1: nr..l nt Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010057-7 SECRET Approved For Release 2005/06/09 c~P1k4; R9p 5T00875R000800010057-7 CAM13O1)IA: Government units trying to reopen Route ( are continuing to meet Communist resistance. A Khmer Krom tusk force from Skoun, which had moved up the highway past Prakham and Tang Kouk on 2 November, wan ambushed yesterday shortly after it began a two-pronged drive to clear the final four miles of the road below the cinbattled village of Rumlong. After suffering six killed and 50 wounded, the Khmer Krom troops and their armored vehicles pulled back to allow air strikes on suspected enemy positions. Phnom Penh has ordered this force to make an all-out effort to reach Rumlong today. A second Khmer Krom relief force moving south from Kompong Thmar apparently is still stalled on the outskirts of Rumlong. in several days of sharp fighting, these Khmer Krom units reportedly have had 30 soldiers killed and another 200 wounded-- extremely heavy casualties for the Cambodian war. The morale of government troops still appears to be high, however, and the recent visit by Prime Minis- ter Lon Nol to I3aray probably had a salutary effect. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM) 4 Nov 71 Central Intclltgcnce Bulletin 3 Approved For Release 2005/06/0,gE?jft85T00875R000800010057-7 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010057-7 SI?(.It I I CHTLI': President Salvador Allende is increas- ingly y critical of hin suppoxLern and determined to run his own show. 25X1 C 25X1 C Ilis annoyance also re ec s the growing criticism from leaders of both dominant UP members, Allende's own hard-line Social- ist Party and the orthodox Communist Party, that he is too independe,lt and personalistic in his exercise of power. They consider Allende subordinate to the coalition and resent what they reportedly see as his "Caesar complex." Allende has arrogated growing power to himself following months of pressure from PS and PCCh leaders quarreling over the handling of expropriation and compensation of US copper interests in Chile. 25X1 C 25X1 C The worsening of Chile's chronic econom',.c'-prob- lems and the onset of new ones under the current government are increasingly burdensome to the gen- eral public. Allende probably hopes to divorce him- self from the adverse political reaction to these problems by blaming those on whom he must depend to govern the country. HiG persistent overtures to non-Marxist political groups and to the armed forces and his tolerance of the violent activities of the Movement of the Revolutionary Left may be seen by UP leaders as attempts by the President to broaden his base of support to the left and right and to strengthen his hand to act independently. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM) Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/(ft-; L P85T00875R000800010057-7 Approved For Release 2005/06/~1~~CCJQ~R~P85T00875R000800010057-7 LAST GERMANY: Erich ilonecker has been unable to resolve long-standing economic problems that he inherited upon assuming the party leadership last May . The regime reportedly has admitted that the five-year plan goals approved by last June's party congress for 1971-75 cannot be achieved and that annual goals set for the remainder of 1971 and for 1972 will, in effect, be scrapped. In the late 1960s the East German leadership pushed for too rapid economic growth which led to widespread shortagcs and foreign trade deficits. Nevertheless, the Ulbricht regime trumpeted Pankow's "developed system of socialism" as a model for other Commun.,.t states. With Ulbricht-'s exit, some reordering of pri- orities has been u.ider way, if only in piecemeal fashion, particularly in favor of the consumer. The regime, having learned the political lesson of Poland, will attempt to avoid a recurrence of the chronic winter shortages of food, power, and heat- ing supplies. lionecker has turned off the rhetoric about East German economic "successes." Although there reportedly have been high-level discussions on the "mistaken" economic decisions made by former party chief Walter Ulbricht and his top economic adviser Guenter Mittag, the new lead- ership has not attempted explicitly to blame pub- licly the serious economic situation on the actions of the previous regime. Moreover, officials will be anxious to avoid extensive discussion of Pankow's economic weaknesses while the Berlin talks are go- ing on. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM) 4 Nov 71 Central Intclligeice Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/M&_RRP 85T00875R000800010057-7 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010057-7 S1E,(;It I I'll I' IRELAND: Prime, MinI.:;tur Lynch's e)ovcrnment faces a vote of confidence iexL week that could bring it: down and lead to new clect.ions. 'iho opposition Fine Gael party has presented a motion of no-confidence in Agricultural. Minister James Gibbons, who was implicated in a scandal last year involving the smuggling of arm:: and ammunition to Ulster. The ciuesLion of Gibbons' integrity pro- vides the ostensible issue for a vote of confidence scheduled for 10 November, but Lynch's whole policy toward Northern Ireland will be the real issue. The vote will be very close. Lynch's Fianna Fail party has 72 of the 144 seats in the Dail and one or two independents may join to provi.c,a the nec- essary majority. Several of the hard-line dissidents in the Fianna Fail could decide to vote against the government, however. They may be constrained by their fear of expulsion from the party and their re- alization that their chances of re-election would be slim. Because the government could have delayed the no-co;lrilence vote through parliamentary maneuver, the dz cis:.on to permit the motion may reflect Lynch's view that elections at this juncture could be useful. If the prime minister were to win a new mandate from the electorate, he would have a much freer hand. Lynch also is aware that the Dail will be forced to redistrict when the latest c'nsus re- sults become available in a few months, with the Fianna Fail losing two or three rural constituen- cies. Moreover, both the extremist Sinn Fein party and the newly organized Aontacht Eireann party will present a much more serious electoral challenge at a later date. Although pressure for a radical, anti-British line is far stronger than it was a year ago, a ma- jority in the Fianna Fail as well as in the prin- cipal opposition parties oppose reunification of the two Irelands by force. (CONFIDENTIAL NO FOR- EIGN DISSEM) 4 Nov 71 Central Intelligcncc Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/06;BM~85T00875R000800010057-7 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 lClA1 P,85TO0875RO00800010057-7 ECtYAUOR-US: Th(~ comi.ngg Lucia :season promises to prcicluc-e t air. t: wr J. i:ct~men t ol. US l.i sh.i.ng boats in Wat.0r.s cl .di.med by l;cuador. . I'o.ve.i.gn Mi.r~.t:~ ter Garcia Vela:~co has informed the US ambassador that Ecuador intent t; to continue its policy oL se.tz i.ng ;;nc1. fining foreign ships op- orating within As. claimed 200-mi l.e territorial l.i.nu t . During the first three months of 1971 the Ecuadoran Navy picked up 26 Ameri';an boats and col- .lucted fines of. more than $1 million. As a result, provisions of the U:; Foreign Military Sales Act were invoked suspending sales and hampering the armed forces' efforts to replace their obsolescent equipment. Ecuador took the issue before the Or- gani~,ation of American States, but a compromise was worked out that avoided condemnation of the US for economic coercion. The government, however, ex- pelled the US military group in retaliation. Garcia stated that I f events followed a similar pattern during the comir,rr tuna season, he would make the "largest ard noi.ci`st possible issue" of the matter. He added that these protests would not be limited to the OAS but would be made in the UN and any other forum availab.e. lie indica`ed that he expccte:a support from a large number of' underdevel- oped countries. Ecuador's previous actions in this field suggest that the government will follow through on these threats. 25X6 4 Nov 7' Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/09 ,ft .85T00875R000800010057-7 I!, I Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010057-7 SJ~,(;RI;'1.' ROMANIA-IRAQ: Bucharest's first economic as- sistance to Iraq marks a significant improvement In bilateral relations, which have been poor since June 1967 when Rumania refused to, condemn Israel during the six-day war. The agreement calls for Romania to pLovide $35 million for the development of the Iraqi petroleum industry in exchange for future deliveries of oil. The Romanians are to un-1erte ke surveys, to give technical assistance, and to provide various kinds of machinery and equipmert. Because transportation costs would be very high, Romania apoaroontly will not import Iraqi oil as long as the Suez Canal re- mains closed. In the interim Bucharest may sell or barter thy: oil t, third countries, but only at prices agreed upon with the Iraq National Oil Com- pany. Romania joins the USSR and several other East European countries in helping to develop the Iraqi oil industry. Most of the assistance these coun- tries ar,s providing also will be repaid with oil from the North Rumaila field, which Iraq expects to begin exporting early next year. At present Bucharest obtains nearly all of its Middle East oil from Iran via the Trans-Israeli pipe- line. Romania, however, would take delivery of the Iraqi oil at the Persian Gulf for shipment to other countries. (SECRET) Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/0901:1) LM5T00875R000800010057-7 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010057-7 5.FO(;R i '1.' UN - MIDDLE EAST: A sharp reduction in rations in the M ddle East refugee camps is raising new prob- lems for the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) and the host governments. A number of logistical difficulties, including the US dock strike, have contributed to severe short- ages, which may not be eased before late January. The problem is especially acute in Jordan, where UNRWA and the government were forced to reduce the daily ration of flour by about 35 percent on Monday. The refugees have refused to accept the reduction and have sent 60 of their leaders to meet with UNRWA officials and the Jordanian prime minister. UNRWA flour supplies in the camps of Syria and Lebanon appear barely adequate to meet anticipated needs in those areas. The Gaza Strip and West Bank refugee camps in Israeli-occupied territory are worse off, and in Gaza some ration reductions have started. CARE may provide temporary supplies from its current surplus in the Middle East now that the Israeli Government has agreed to replenish its stocks if necessary. The US Embassy in Amman has cautioned that a complete cutoff of flour rations would create an "intolerable political problem" for the Husayn gov- ernment. The General Assembly will soon begin meet- ing at the committee level to consider whether to extend UNRWA's mandate which expires next June. Be- fore the mandate is extended, the agency's chronic fiscal deficits and recent Israeli security measures against the population in the Gaza Strip camps are certain to be raised. (CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DIS- SEM) Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/0SJ FLDr5T00875R000800010057-7 Approved For Release 2005/06~p;( 9 ;PDP85T00875R000800010057-7 Ytlc;c);L1~V.tA-Jill 1,GA1tJA: )ietgr.adc appears to be increan nu prreurturo On )iu) Oaria over. the M~eedun.tn as 110- . 1telationn, ntrainod by Yugouiav reaction to ir.,- reciontiut propaganda in But( aria, worsened last sun.- day when it wan announced l:)iat a b3uly,arian citizen in the Yugoslav Macedonian ttopublic had been sen- tenced to five years' hard labor for espionage. Newspapers in Macedonia have taken up the cry by attacking Bulgaria for "unccrncr_aleci territorial" claims. The Tito regime suspects Moscow has encouraged past Bulgarian agitation on the Macedonian issue. The Yugoslavs claim Fare: hnrv agreed to curtail hos- tile clandestine' activities during his visit in Sep- tember. That Belgrade appears willing to use the Bulgarian spy case to test Moscow's real intentions may indicate the influence of those highly placed Yugoslavs who are dissatisfied with the limited com- promises Bre?rhnev made during his talks with Tito. Last week Sofia decided--possibly at Soviet behest--to sack an editor guilty of advancing Bul- garian irredentist attitudes. This action may have been a sop to Yugoslav sensitivities, but Belgrade now senses a tactical advantage and is probably going to push for more :.,ubstantive concessions. (CONFIDENTIAL) 4 Nov 71 Central havIligrijet, Bulletin 10 Approved For Release 2005/ 1 jAjRDP85T00875R000800010057-7 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010057-7 `~.J',( ;lt 1''r Nr)?rt;:: I114-1111KTt,TAN: In a convrr.rnat.ion w1ti1 the. U.; i11i1bani,1~ (5r ()n Tuf,sdayf Pak i t'ln 1. 1Pi er; I denI Yilhya Khan agreed in princi.pl1' to the r;t.at:i.oni.nq of t)N r.olief pernonnel in l ar;t PaY,i:;t:an alonrl the border with I .ndi. a . The UN teams would be located in more than 20 reception cont err; for Ilengal. i refuge(-. r;eok- ing to return home after. Ii "rins1 to India. The Pak- intar.i Government had rel;i:;tied such an arrangement for months, noting that New Delhi refused to po.rmit any posting of. UN personnel in itr; border areas. In late October Yahya wrote Secretary General 'Thant offering to accept a UN observer mission along the frontier if India also would do so. Yahya's coop- orative attitude on this and other subjects raised by the ambassador reflect;.; Pakir;tan':; desire to demonstrate its flexibility to the detriment of In- dia. (SECRET NO FORI,I.(;N DISSLM) TURKEY: The threat of military intervention has forced-the Justice Party to suspend its decision to withdraw from Prime Minister Erim's cabinet, easing the month-long political crisis. Both Pres- ident Sunay and armed forces chief General Tagmac made strong public statements of support for .rim and his reforms, and top militar.' officers report- edly have agreed that the continuation of Erim in office was the only alternative to a military take- over. Erim's chances of pushing his reforms through the Justice Party - dominated parliament have been improved by this strong show of support. (CONFIDEN- TIAL) (continued) Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010057-7 SECRET Approved For Release 2005/06/09 CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010057-7 SWEDEN: Sweden' n three non-:iocialint oppOn i t.ioil 1)ar.tian-li~cive m.anayecl to ailr.er on a draft rc.onornie, re- form program dir'et.).y chaIlcengincJ Prime M.inl:;tcr t'al.me'n own rc,fcorm bill in parliament. Paa1me'o nLo1r- cl.ap r f`fort:n last. month to cluck a recorinionary trend evoke(] widespread criticism that they were ineffec- tive and clearly provided the impetun, her.etafore lacking, for the unual,ly clivercrent. o1poai.Lion 1~ar- t:.irn to band toclether. Id though the oiponition par- ties' program ha:, not been nubmitIed to parliament, their joint action could bode ill for Paitne. His Social Democrats control only 163 of parliament's 350 :seats, and have depended upon a divided oiponi- tion to maintain themselves in power. (CONFIDENTIAL) 4 Nov 71 Central Inteffigencr Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/09 C A-R.Pp85T00875R000800010057-7