CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010057-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 4, 2001
• Sequence Number: 57
• Publication Date: November 4, 1971
• Content Type: BULL

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Secret
No lv,rrirn Uiurrm
DI ItL'CTOItATE OF
INT'ELLIGE'NCE
Central Lntelliaeonce Bulletin
State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file
Secret
0
Nove%Ur 1971
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GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
downproding and
drein t ficatu'on
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No. 0264/71
4 November 1971
Central Inlelligence Bulletin
INDIA-PAKISTAN: Mrs. Gandhi probably will stress
need for ear y settlement in East Pakistan. (Page 1)
CAMBODIA: Government forces facing strong Communist
resistance on Route 6. (Page 3)
CHILE: Allende cri+:icizcs performance of his coali-
tion supporters. (Page 4)
EAST GERMANY: Honecker fails to l.-esolve economic
problems. (Page 5)
litELAND: Lynch government faces vote of confidence.
Page 6)
ECUADOR-US: Further harassment of US fishing boats
likely, (Page 7)
ROMANIA-IRAQ: Bucharest agrees to aid Iraqi oil in-
dustry. (Page 8)
UN - MIDT)LE EAST: Reduction in food rations in
refugee camps. (Page 9)
YUGOSLAVIA-BULGARIA: Belgrade increases pressure
over Macedonia issue . (Page 10)
UN-PAKISTAN: Yahya agrees to U1,41 personnel long
East wing border (Page 11)
TURKEY: Political crisis eases (Page 11)
SWEDEN: Opposition challenges Palme's reform bill
(Page 12)
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INF IA-P K1:J'1'AN: I'rinu' Mitnint t r. c;an(i)1i, durincj
hor t.a3,)ia iiiWac;li iii{Lon he clinni.ri~{ tr,clay, will l~r.o1~-
.ibly siLr.cO:;:; the s?',,cl to cex(_,rt more 1)rest;ure on Is-
lamabad to nugatlllle an e;.;rly pe.lJLJcal :;f!t:}:l(_`rlent
of the rrit;in in 1;ant. I'akcJ.:3t:an.
.In Lirusse.1:;, Vienna, and London, Mrs. Gandhi
did not deviate from her .in::;i.:;tence that: time only
solution lien in a political. accommodation between
.I n l.asnabad and the e 1c!cLed reprenen tatil-es of the
East Done{alit; . :;he has followed the line that India
is the innocent victim of 1'akis;tan's internal con-
flict and that the continuing{ flow of refugees into
India has forced New Delhi to insist that the inter-
national community press West Pakistan to create
conditions conducive to the refugees' return. She
has dismissed as palliatives suggestions for Indo-
Pakistani discussions, troop withdrawals, or the
posting of UN observers on the fro,it:.ers.
Mrs. Gandhi admitted she was not enthusiastic
about an independent Bangla Desh because it prob-
ably would bo strongly leftist, but she neverthe-
less considers independence inevitable.
In Washington, Mrs. Gandhi is likely to main-
tain that support for the government of West Paki-
stan only delays a political settlement. She may
also ask the US to use its influence to obtain the
release of East Bengali leader Sheikh Mujibur Rah-
man. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
4 Nov 71 Central Intelligrncr Bulletin
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Slt;(.;lt' L'
CAMBODIA: Route 6 Area
Kunipnng
Thmat
?thuay
r' - ~ rrrvrt irlll~'il'. (rrl(r .
Runrlong~ t.nemy
auNnlllctl
Lm-my ambmh
Kamponp l ~t,vr rnmunt
Chhnang Twig Kou 1?ru , .ulv.ulr. ,
n
Chup
Kompono plantation
Chars
SECRET
T t r;rr?.1: nr..l nt
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SECRET
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CAM13O1)IA: Government units trying to reopen
Route ( are continuing to meet Communist resistance.
A Khmer Krom tusk force from Skoun, which had
moved up the highway past Prakham and Tang Kouk on
2 November, wan ambushed yesterday shortly after it
began a two-pronged drive to clear the final four
miles of the road below the cinbattled village of
Rumlong. After suffering six killed and 50 wounded,
the Khmer Krom troops and their armored vehicles
pulled back to allow air strikes on suspected enemy
positions. Phnom Penh has ordered this force to
make an all-out effort to reach Rumlong today.
A second Khmer Krom relief force moving south
from Kompong Thmar apparently is still stalled on
the outskirts of Rumlong. in several days of sharp
fighting, these Khmer Krom units reportedly have
had 30 soldiers killed and another 200 wounded--
extremely heavy casualties for the Cambodian war.
The morale of government troops still appears to be
high, however, and the recent visit by Prime Minis-
ter Lon Nol to I3aray probably had a salutary effect.
(SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
4 Nov 71 Central Intclltgcnce Bulletin 3
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SI?(.It I I
CHTLI': President Salvador Allende is increas-
ingly y critical of hin suppoxLern and determined to
run his own show.
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Ilis annoyance also
re ec s the growing criticism from leaders of both
dominant UP members, Allende's own hard-line Social-
ist Party and the orthodox Communist Party, that he
is too independe,lt and personalistic in his exercise
of power. They consider Allende subordinate to the
coalition and resent what they reportedly see as his
"Caesar complex."
Allende has arrogated growing power to himself
following months of pressure from PS and PCCh leaders
quarreling over the handling of expropriation and
compensation of US copper interests in Chile.
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The worsening of Chile's chronic econom',.c'-prob-
lems and the onset of new ones under the current
government are increasingly burdensome to the gen-
eral public. Allende probably hopes to divorce him-
self from the adverse political reaction to these
problems by blaming those on whom he must depend to
govern the country. HiG persistent overtures to
non-Marxist political groups and to the armed forces
and his tolerance of the violent activities of the
Movement of the Revolutionary Left may be seen by
UP leaders as attempts by the President to broaden
his base of support to the left and right and to
strengthen his hand to act independently. (SECRET
NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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LAST GERMANY: Erich ilonecker has been unable
to resolve long-standing economic problems that he
inherited upon assuming the party leadership last
May .
The regime reportedly has admitted that the
five-year plan goals approved by last June's party
congress for 1971-75 cannot be achieved and that
annual goals set for the remainder of 1971 and for
1972 will, in effect, be scrapped. In the late
1960s the East German leadership pushed for too
rapid economic growth which led to widespread
shortagcs and foreign trade deficits. Nevertheless,
the Ulbricht regime trumpeted Pankow's "developed
system of socialism" as a model for other Commun.,.t
states.
With Ulbricht-'s exit, some reordering of pri-
orities has been u.ider way, if only in piecemeal
fashion, particularly in favor of the consumer.
The regime, having learned the political lesson of
Poland, will attempt to avoid a recurrence of the
chronic winter shortages of food, power, and heat-
ing supplies. lionecker has turned off the rhetoric
about East German economic "successes."
Although there reportedly have been high-level
discussions on the "mistaken" economic decisions
made by former party chief Walter Ulbricht and his
top economic adviser Guenter Mittag, the new lead-
ership has not attempted explicitly to blame pub-
licly the serious economic situation on the actions
of the previous regime. Moreover, officials will
be anxious to avoid extensive discussion of Pankow's
economic weaknesses while the Berlin talks are go-
ing on. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
4 Nov 71 Central Intclligeice Bulletin
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S1E,(;It I I'll I'
IRELAND: Prime, MinI.:;tur Lynch's e)ovcrnment
faces a vote of confidence iexL week that could
bring it: down and lead to new clect.ions.
'iho opposition Fine Gael party has presented
a motion of no-confidence in Agricultural. Minister
James Gibbons, who was implicated in a scandal last
year involving the smuggling of arm:: and ammunition
to Ulster. The ciuesLion of Gibbons' integrity pro-
vides the ostensible issue for a vote of confidence
scheduled for 10 November, but Lynch's whole policy
toward Northern Ireland will be the real issue.
The vote will be very close. Lynch's Fianna
Fail party has 72 of the 144 seats in the Dail and
one or two independents may join to provi.c,a the nec-
essary majority. Several of the hard-line dissidents
in the Fianna Fail could decide to vote against the
government, however. They may be constrained by
their fear of expulsion from the party and their re-
alization that their chances of re-election would
be slim.
Because the government could have delayed the
no-co;lrilence vote through parliamentary maneuver,
the dz cis:.on to permit the motion may reflect
Lynch's view that elections at this juncture could
be useful. If the prime minister were to win a new
mandate from the electorate, he would have a much
freer hand. Lynch also is aware that the Dail will
be forced to redistrict when the latest c'nsus re-
sults become available in a few months, with the
Fianna Fail losing two or three rural constituen-
cies. Moreover, both the extremist Sinn Fein party
and the newly organized Aontacht Eireann party will
present a much more serious electoral challenge at
a later date.
Although pressure for a radical, anti-British
line is far stronger than it was a year ago, a ma-
jority in the Fianna Fail as well as in the prin-
cipal opposition parties oppose reunification of
the two Irelands by force. (CONFIDENTIAL NO FOR-
EIGN DISSEM)
4 Nov 71 Central Intelligcncc Bulletin
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ECtYAUOR-US: Th(~ comi.ngg Lucia :season promises
to prcicluc-e t air. t: wr J. i:ct~men t ol. US l.i sh.i.ng boats
in Wat.0r.s cl .di.med by l;cuador.
.
I'o.ve.i.gn Mi.r~.t:~ ter Garcia Vela:~co has informed
the US ambassador that Ecuador intent t; to continue
its policy oL se.tz i.ng ;;nc1. fining foreign ships op-
orating within As. claimed 200-mi l.e territorial
l.i.nu t . During the first three months of 1971 the
Ecuadoran Navy picked up 26 Ameri';an boats and col-
.lucted fines of. more than $1 million. As a result,
provisions of the U:; Foreign Military Sales Act
were invoked suspending sales and hampering the
armed forces' efforts to replace their obsolescent
equipment. Ecuador took the issue before the Or-
gani~,ation of American States, but a compromise was
worked out that avoided condemnation of the US for
economic coercion. The government, however, ex-
pelled the US military group in retaliation.
Garcia stated that I f events followed a similar
pattern during the comir,rr tuna season, he would make
the "largest ard noi.ci`st possible issue" of the
matter. He added that these protests would not be
limited to the OAS but would be made in the UN and
any other forum availab.e. lie indica`ed that he
expccte:a support from a large number of' underdevel-
oped countries. Ecuador's previous actions in this
field suggest that the government will follow through
on these threats.
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SJ~,(;RI;'1.'
ROMANIA-IRAQ: Bucharest's first economic as-
sistance to Iraq marks a significant improvement In
bilateral relations, which have been poor since
June 1967 when Rumania refused to, condemn Israel
during the six-day war.
The agreement calls for Romania to pLovide $35
million for the development of the Iraqi petroleum
industry in exchange for future deliveries of oil.
The Romanians are to un-1erte ke surveys, to give
technical assistance, and to provide various kinds
of machinery and equipmert. Because transportation
costs would be very high, Romania apoaroontly will
not import Iraqi oil as long as the Suez Canal re-
mains closed. In the interim Bucharest may sell or
barter thy: oil t, third countries, but only at
prices agreed upon with the Iraq National Oil Com-
pany.
Romania joins the USSR and several other East
European countries in helping to develop the Iraqi
oil industry. Most of the assistance these coun-
tries ar,s providing also will be repaid with oil
from the North Rumaila field, which Iraq expects to
begin exporting early next year.
At present Bucharest obtains nearly all of its
Middle East oil from Iran via the Trans-Israeli pipe-
line. Romania, however, would take delivery of the
Iraqi oil at the Persian Gulf for shipment to other
countries. (SECRET)
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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5.FO(;R i '1.'
UN - MIDDLE EAST: A sharp reduction in rations
in the M ddle East refugee camps is raising new prob-
lems for the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) and
the host governments.
A number of logistical difficulties, including
the US dock strike, have contributed to severe short-
ages, which may not be eased before late January.
The problem is especially acute in Jordan, where
UNRWA and the government were forced to reduce the
daily ration of flour by about 35 percent on Monday.
The refugees have refused to accept the reduction
and have sent 60 of their leaders to meet with UNRWA
officials and the Jordanian prime minister.
UNRWA flour supplies in the camps of Syria and
Lebanon appear barely adequate to meet anticipated
needs in those areas. The Gaza Strip and West Bank
refugee camps in Israeli-occupied territory are
worse off, and in Gaza some ration reductions have
started. CARE may provide temporary supplies from
its current surplus in the Middle East now that the
Israeli Government has agreed to replenish its
stocks if necessary.
The US Embassy in Amman has cautioned that a
complete cutoff of flour rations would create an
"intolerable political problem" for the Husayn gov-
ernment. The General Assembly will soon begin meet-
ing at the committee level to consider whether to
extend UNRWA's mandate which expires next June. Be-
fore the mandate is extended, the agency's chronic
fiscal deficits and recent Israeli security measures
against the population in the Gaza Strip camps are
certain to be raised. (CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DIS-
SEM)
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Ytlc;c);L1~V.tA-Jill 1,GA1tJA: )ietgr.adc appears to be
increan nu prreurturo On )iu) Oaria over. the M~eedun.tn
as 110- .
1telationn, ntrainod by Yugouiav reaction to ir.,-
reciontiut propaganda in But( aria, worsened last sun.-
day when it wan announced l:)iat a b3uly,arian citizen
in the Yugoslav Macedonian ttopublic had been sen-
tenced to five years' hard labor for espionage.
Newspapers in Macedonia have taken up the cry by
attacking Bulgaria for "unccrncr_aleci territorial"
claims.
The Tito regime suspects Moscow has encouraged
past Bulgarian agitation on the Macedonian issue.
The Yugoslavs claim Fare: hnrv agreed to curtail hos-
tile clandestine' activities during his visit in Sep-
tember. That Belgrade appears willing to use the
Bulgarian spy case to test Moscow's real intentions
may indicate the influence of those highly placed
Yugoslavs who are dissatisfied with the limited com-
promises Bre?rhnev made during his talks with Tito.
Last week Sofia decided--possibly at Soviet
behest--to sack an editor guilty of advancing Bul-
garian irredentist attitudes. This action may have
been a sop to Yugoslav sensitivities, but Belgrade
now senses a tactical advantage and is probably
going to push for more :.,ubstantive concessions.
(CONFIDENTIAL)
4 Nov 71 Central havIligrijet, Bulletin 10
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`~.J',( ;lt 1''r
Nr)?rt;::
I114-1111KTt,TAN: In a convrr.rnat.ion w1ti1 the. U.;
i11i1bani,1~ (5r ()n Tuf,sdayf Pak i t'ln 1. 1Pi er; I denI Yilhya
Khan agreed in princi.pl1' to the r;t.at:i.oni.nq of t)N
r.olief pernonnel in l ar;t PaY,i:;t:an alonrl the border
with I .ndi. a . The UN teams would be located in more
than 20 reception cont err; for Ilengal. i refuge(-. r;eok-
ing to return home after. Ii "rins1 to India. The Pak-
intar.i Government had rel;i:;tied such an arrangement
for months, noting that New Delhi refused to po.rmit
any posting of. UN personnel in itr; border areas.
In late October Yahya wrote Secretary General 'Thant
offering to accept a UN observer mission along the
frontier if India also would do so. Yahya's coop-
orative attitude on this and other subjects raised
by the ambassador reflect;.; Pakir;tan':; desire to
demonstrate its flexibility to the detriment of In-
dia. (SECRET NO FORI,I.(;N DISSLM)
TURKEY: The threat of military intervention
has forced-the Justice Party to suspend its decision
to withdraw from Prime Minister Erim's cabinet,
easing the month-long political crisis. Both Pres-
ident Sunay and armed forces chief General Tagmac
made strong public statements of support for .rim
and his reforms, and top militar.' officers report-
edly have agreed that the continuation of Erim in
office was the only alternative to a military take-
over. Erim's chances of pushing his reforms through
the Justice Party - dominated parliament have been
improved by this strong show of support. (CONFIDEN-
TIAL)
(continued)
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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SECRET
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SWEDEN: Sweden' n three non-:iocialint oppOn i t.ioil
1)ar.tian-li~cive m.anayecl to ailr.er on a draft rc.onornie, re-
form program dir'et.).y chaIlcengincJ Prime M.inl:;tcr
t'al.me'n own rc,fcorm bill in parliament. Paa1me'o nLo1r-
cl.ap r f`fort:n last. month to cluck a recorinionary trend
evoke(] widespread criticism that they were ineffec-
tive and clearly provided the impetun, her.etafore
lacking, for the unual,ly clivercrent. o1poai.Lion 1~ar-
t:.irn to band toclether. Id though the oiponition par-
ties' program ha:, not been nubmitIed to parliament,
their joint action could bode ill for Paitne. His
Social Democrats control only 163 of parliament's
350 :seats, and have depended upon a divided oiponi-
tion to maintain themselves in power. (CONFIDENTIAL)
4 Nov 71 Central Inteffigencr Bulletin
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