Document Type: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
Release Decision: 
Original Classification: 
Document Page Count: 
Document Creation Date: 
December 19, 2016
Document Release Date: 
December 14, 2001
Sequence Number: 
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
December 3, 1971
Content Type: 
PDF icon CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010081-0.pdf622.07 KB
;, u. .i:.n -id- o. .. ... :...w rti~ u. u..-:i. .n -,. _.. J. ~ _..-....~ uu ur n.. ~n nn '.lii .. ,,, ,,., r iu . ; :~ t t t t t i` ~ ~ Approved For: a ee 0 / 61 RDPSSF R 70 1 0 t .. t t t ........1. t ....I L.. - ..~ ~~. ,~ .,. t , ~~.. ~. ... ~ ~P 1~. t"~?~.,. .~?~'~ Y?~?~... ~., .I....~ I... ~ ~ ... ~w,. ~, ... ~.,: i,..1.... ~ ; i, ~ f = f ~~~;, ,...~. . I ,, ..!? ~. ,' r :,.., ~ ~ ~y. ~ , ~ ~'. ,, ~" ~~ ~ ~ i ' r Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R00080 DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE 9bf No Foreign Dicre u Central Inteliience Bulletin State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file Secret N2 535 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R00080CM11DQ> Ober 1971 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010081-0 secirah't The GI NT1tAL 1N1'ELLJCFNCE BULLETIN is produced by the Director of Central Intelligence to meet his responsibilities for providing current intelligence bearing on issues of national security to the President, the National Security Council, and other senior government officials. It is produced in consultation with the Departments of State and Defense. When, because of the time factor, adequate consultation with the depart- ment of primary concern is not feasible, items or portions thereof are pro- -luced by CIA and enclosed in brackets. Interpretations of intelligence information in this publication represent immediate and preliminary views which are subject to modification in the light of further information and more complete analysis. Certain intelligence items in this publication may be designated specifically for no further dissemination. Other intelligence items may be disseminated further, but only on a acct.-to-know basis. WARNING This document contains information affecting the national defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title 18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended. Its transmi: siov or revelation of its contents to or re- ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. I - GROUP 1 Excluded from automatic downgrading anJ declassification Approved For Release 2005/0 c tRDP85T00875R000800010081-0 Approved For Release 2005/06/u 1 P85T00875R000800010081-0 No. 0289/71 j December 1971 Central Intellzgence bulletin 25X6 CHILE: Uneasy truce follows government crackdown on opposition protests. (Page 1) CAMBODIA: Military setbacks cause political rever- berations. (Page 3) EAST GERMANY: Debate continues over future economic policy. Page 5) YUGOSLAVIA: Struggle between Tito avid Croat leaders comes to a head. (Page 7) INDIA: West Bengal attempts to stimulate state's economy. (Page 8` WARSAW PACT: Foreign ministers' communique (Page 9) SUDAN-EGYPT: Relations cool (Page 9) Approved For Release 2005/06 PLFFP85T00875R000800010081-0 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010081-0 SECRET 0 CHILE: There is an uneasy truce in Santiago following the Allende government's sharp crackdown on opposition protests. The imposition of a state of emergency on 2 December will inhibit further opposition demonstra- tions that were planned and curtail critical press comment. Tensions are running high, however, and some incidents continue to occur. There is much resentment over the treatment of several thousand women whose demonstration against the government .yet off the violence. The numbers and determina- tion of the female marchers apparently surprised the government, which provided only minimal police escort. This was inadequate to protect the women against stonings and other attacks by leftist gron squads. The police themselves caused many of the numerous injuries by using tear gas heavily against marchers and bystanders in downtown Santiago. Charges have been brought in Congress against In- terior Minister Toha as responsible for the police behavior. Toha has charged the outbreaks are part of a seditious plot. Aware that further repressive measures could trigger greater public disapproval, the government will now probably lean heavily on propaganda claims that the Christian Democrats, Chilean rightists, and the US are trying to bring down Allende. The women's march was the most recent evidence of mounting disgruntlement among students, workers, businessmen and other Chileans. One of the most serious disagreements continues to be the admin- istration's plans to reorganize and exert control over the University of Chile. After several weeks of violence, the rector has collected enough sig- natures to call a plebiscite on the issue on 21 December. Approval would greatly strengthen his hand against the administration-dominated governing council of the university. (continued) 3 Dec 71 Central In'elligence 3ulletin 3 Approved For Release 2005/0,~Wtf P85T00875R000800010081-0 'SE Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010081-0 SECRET rIP Meanwhile, Army General Augusto Pinochet, who is in command of Santiago under the state of emer- gency, is attempting to get opposition students to vacate the university buildings they have held for some time in defiance of the government and attack- ing leftist students. Pinochet is reportedly in line tc become commander in chief of the army soon and will probably heed Allende's instructions care- fully during this tense period. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM) I Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/it&-)R85T00875R000800010081-0 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010081-0 SECRET CAMBODIA: Military reverses apparently are causing some political reverberations in Phnom Penh. Civilian leaders in the cabinet have been re- markably frank and caustic concerning the deficien- cies of the army in recent meetings with militar The civilian leae.ers were reacting to the gen- erals' assertions that the army was spread too thin to provide better security in Phnom Penh, and that civilian commandos would have to play a greater role in the capital's defense. The meetings took place before this week's rout on Route 6, which presumably will add to the dissatisfaction with the military and the over-all situation in the country that al- legedly is being expressed by a w'.de range of ci- vilians in the capital. Much of this grumbling is the natural reaction of civilians to battlefield reverse;; and ti:e mili- tary's growing political role. Although the critical civilians might have some influence? on Lon Nol's policies, they will not have a major impact on the political situation as long as Lon Nol is still on the scene to hold things together. Any serious threat to political stability would have to come from the military establishment itself. There is as yet no evidence, however, of any restiveness in either the ranks or the officer corps in reaction to the recent military setbacks. (SECRET NO FOR- EIGN DISSEM) 3 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 C Approved For Release 2005/06/09Ea" 5T00875R000800010031-0 25X6 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010081-0 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010081-0 Approved For Release 2005/06/%E(CJkBtIP85T00875R000800010081-0 EAST GERMANY: The specific goals of the five- year plan (1971-75) are apparently still under mod- ification and there are indications that debate about the future thrust of economic policy is continuing. Premier Stoph, in a recent address to the East German People's Chamber, promised that the draft plan for 1972, as well. as for the five-;ear period, soon will be submitted for "discussion and approval." He said that all related problems and tasks will be explained in detail at that time. Draft goals were published last June, but the new regime apparently decided that it would replace clearly unattainable targets with more realistic ones. Stoph attributed present economic difficulties to imbalances in previous investment priorities. The regime is particularly conce?-ned about serious agricultural failure?. Three consecutive yezrs of bad weather have struck a blow to the hope that alternative use could be made of the investment resources that have gone to agriculture. An offi- cial noted that this year imports valued at almost $180 million were necessary to make up for the short- fall in grain production alone. The prospect of organizational changes was sug- gested by repeated references to the need to perfect management and to strengthen centralized control over the economy. The regime also promised to cut the size of the administrative bureaucracy and to shift technical skills now allocated to the admin- istrative sphere to production. New jobs are not to be created unless the same amount of labor is economized elsewhere. The East German worker once again will be called upon to increase production rates without increased resources. In anticipation of another winter of chronic food, power, arid fuel supply shortages, vague state- ments were made about the plan's aim to improve further the standard of living. It is clear, how- ever, that the first order of business will be to 3 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06)9Q 4FR'BP85T00875R000800010081-0 Approved For Release 2005/0"Q' 005/0 , QC ' ' P85T00875R000800010081-0 atteript to solve the broader economic problems that Pankow has faced over a period of years and to at- tempt to placate the people with promises of a better future if they work harder now. (CONFIDENTIAL) 3 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin ,Approved For Release 2005/0'6/n''9''*&-f 2DP85T00875R000800010081-0 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010081-0 SECRET YUGOSLAVIA: The climax of a sharp infra-party struggle between an angry Tito and Croat leaders could come during today'o second session of a fed- eral party presidium meeting. In'a speech at the first session yesterday, Tito accused some members of the Croat party leader- ship of "rotten liberalism, levity and lack of vigilance," and called for the federal party to take the strongest action against there. Tito blamed the student strike in Zagreb on "counter-revolution- ary forces" flourishing under the loose rein of the republic party leadership. He said there are only a few hundred chauvinists in Croatia but that they have created a wide base of support. Tito has differed with the liberal Croats be- fore and it remains to be seen whether or how he will settle accounts this time. Tito said that he had met with the Croat party leaders for over 20 hours---probably late last week e.fter he returned several days early from his annual meeting with Ceausescu--trying to convince them of their errors. Earlier this week Croat party leaders Mrs. Savka Dabcevie-Kucar and Mika Tripalo referred vaguely during radio and television appearanras to criticism of their leadership and made an all-out attempt to convince students to drop their strike. Ironically, Tito's attack comes at a time when the strike is losing momentum and a return to order seems imminent. (CONFIDENTIAL) 3 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/0%lfi JKt_1.5T00875R000800010081-0 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010081-0 SECRET INDIA: The state government of West Bengal reportedly is granting a new round of concessions to industry in order to boost the state's economy. Industrial units will be exempt from payment of sales tax for six yGars and will be eligible for interest-free loans equivalent to 30 percent of working capital. Loans would not have to be re- paid until the firms become profitable, in addi- tion, the state government is proposing a ten- percent capital subsidy for small industrial units in selected backward areas. West Bengal has been hit hard by political instability, an inadequate supply of raw materials, massive labor disruptions, and a lack of finances. Although the state government is dealing firmly with labor problems and there has been some im- provement in the law and order situation, alm^' three quarters of the state's industrial units are operating below 50 percent of capacity anri over 300 firms remain closed. The state's plight is aggravated by the massive influx of refugees from Pakistan. The central government, apparently prompted by the failure of earlier efforts -.o revive in- dustry, announced a 16-point program to spur in- dustrial production in the state three months ago. This program, however, has not been implemented. (CONFIDENTIAL) 3 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulleti,,a Approved For Release 2005/06/~ Iq-BF85T00875R000800010081-0 Approved For Release 2005/06/(:g* ,t4?P85T00875R000800010081-0 NOTES WARSAW PACT: The communique issued following this wee? 's conference of the Pact foreign ministers is aimed at increasing pressure on the West on the eve of the NATO ministerial meeting for a more fortiz- coming attitude toward early convocation of a Confer- ence on European Security and Cooperation. It says that the bloc governments plan to name plenipoten- tiary representatives for multilateral preparatory talks, and it calls on other interested states to follow suit and to initiate practical preparations to permit convening of a conference during 1972. The statement does not mention mutual force reduc- tions in Europe. (CONFIDENTTAL_,) SUDAN-EGYPT: A former Sudanese foreign min- .;.ster has told US officials in Khartoum that Sudan's relations with Egypt have become markedly cool as a result of President Numayri's effort to improve re- lations with the West. The former official speculated that the deterioration in relations resulted in part from the fact that Sadat visited Moscow while Sudan's relations with the USSR were at a low point as a result of the unsuccessful Communist-backed coup last July in the Sudan. According to the US Inter- ests Section, recent. public statements by Numayri, in contrast to past months, have not touched on the Confederation of Arab Republics or on general ties binding Egypt and the Sudan, but have instead merely emphasized Sudanese support for the Arab mission in the "battle of destiny." According to a rumor cir- culating in Khartoum, a high-level Egyptian emi.~sary recently visited the Sudan, but was ii,-t received by Numayri. Numayri cannot permit relatic.ns with Egypt to deteriorate too far, and the US Interests Section believes that to prevent such a d',iterioration Numayri may hold off on the anticipated resumption in rela- tions with the US. (SECRET) 3 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06MP85T00875R000800010081-0 Approved For Release 200510/9CIQDP85T00875R000800010081-0 The United States Intelligence Board on 2 De- cember 1971 approved the following national intelli- gence estimate: NIE 29.2-71 "Turkey's Prospects" (SECRET) Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010081-0 SECRET