CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010089-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 14, 2001
• Sequence Number: 89
• Publication Date: December 13, 1971
• Content Type: BULL

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
P
No Foreign Dissem
Central Intelligence bulletin
State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file
Secret
N0_ 55 90
13 December 1971
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Secret
The C ENTHAL /N'I'ELL IGENCI.; BULLETIN is produced by the,
L)irct.tor of Central Intelligence. to meet his responsibilities for providing
current intelligence bearing on issues of national security to the President,
the National Secitrity Council, and other senior government officials. It
is prodnceo in consultation with the Department:; of Slcle and Defense.
When, because of the time factor, adequate consultation with the depart-
ment of primary concern is not feasible, items or portions thereof are pro-
duced by CIA and enclosed in brackets.
Interpretations of intelligence information in this publication represent
inrrnedia.te and preliminary views which are salrjcct to modification in the
light of further inf,vination and more complete analysis.
Certain intelligence items in this publication may 1',e designated specifically
for no further disseminate n. Other intelligence items may be disseminated
further, but only on a need-to-know basis.
WARNING
This document contains information affecting the national
defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title
18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Cock, as amended.
Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is pro,iibited by law.
GROUP 1
Excluded from outoma'ic
downgrading and
declassification
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SECRET
No. 0297/71
13 December 1971
Central intelligence bulletin
INDIA-PAKISTAN: The Indians are preparing for their
final assault on Decca. (Page 1)
POLAND: Party leader Gierek has received a strong
mandate to translate his general policy objectives
into concrete programs. (Page 5)
CAMBODIA: The Cummunists are maintaining the mili-
tary initiative in the Phnom Penh area. (Page 7)
YUGOSLAVIA: President Tito has cracked down on
Croat nationalists. (Page 8)
EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES US: French opposition to a
formal negotiating mandate for EC-US trade talks
will delay negotiations. (Page 9)
UN-CYPRUS: Consideration of a six-month extension
of the mandate of the UN force in Cyprus will prob-
ably lead to contentious debate in the Security
Council. (Page 10)
TJSSR: Brezhnev reappears (Page 11)
TURKEY: New government (Page 11)
SENEGAL-CHINA: Diplomatic ties (Page 12)
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SEC RET
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SCOOCII I]chhr
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N D I A
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PAKISTAN,`
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INDIA-PAKISTAN: In East Pakistan, the Indians
are getting ready for their final assault on Dacca,
while on the western front neither side has made
significant gains.
Indian troops continue to move toward Dacca
from the Ashuganj - Shairab Bazar crossing point on
the Meghna River northeast of the city. The Indians
report that these troops have captured the town of
Narsingdi some 25 miles from Dacca and have moved
beyond it to within 18 miles of the capital. Press
reports state that Indian units have also crossed
the Meghna at Daudkandi 22 miles southeast of Dacca.
Approximately 5,000 Indian paratroopers reportedly
were airdropped somewhere north of Dar:ca to help
clear the way for the forces advancing from the
northeast, but there is no evidence to support New
Delhi's claim that its troops are already fighting
on the outskirts of the city. Meanwhile, Indian
planes reportedly resumed bombing the Dacca airport
over the weekend following a pause during which
some 400 foreigners were evacuated by air to Cal-
cutta.
The Pakistanis probably now have between 30,000
and 40,000 men in Dacca, including those who have
fallen back to the .ity from other areas. The In-
dians have roughly 60,000 men in three divisions
moving toward the city from all directions, with at
least as many more in reserve near East Pakistan's
borders. How energetically the Pakistanis will re-
sist in Dacca remains to be seen. Pakistan's mili-
tary commander in the province, General Niazi, re-
portedly is determined not to surrender, and at
least some of the Pakistani forces in the capital
appear to fie digging in and planning to fight to
the last. Other units, however, are reported to
be disorganized and demoralized, and may not put
up much of a fight. There have been reports of
scattered hit-and-run attacks against Pakistani
forces within the city by guerrilla elements, but
no general uprising appears to have occurred as yet.
(continued)
13 Dec 71 Central Tntelltgence Bulletin 1
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Nayachor:
yderabad
-r-
H waalpindi
~- Indian attack
Patcist, attack
Road
-4-- - iailroad
?...,'.? Y(?o Faoncn
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2 Xi c
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Elsewhere in East Pakistan, a few pockets of Paki-
stani resistance remain, but these are likely to
fall rather quickly once Dacca has been taken.
The two top officials in the Bangla Desh gov-
ernment-in-exile, Acting President Syed Nazrul
Islam and Prime Minister Tajuddin Ahmad, have al-
ready gone to.Jessore with a contingent of -r' -
las and newsmen,
an interim ang a Desh capital may be set up
either there or at Pabna.
factional differences with e an a es exi e
government have sharpened, with the rest of the
cabinet criticizing Ahmad for being willing to make
too many concessions to India.
For some time there have been differences be-
tween the majority of the cabinet, which is com-
prised of moderate, middle-class Awami League poli-
ticians, and the more leftist members of the Bangla
Desh movement, including Ahmad. The moderates dom-
inate the exile government, but the leftists appear
to have strong ties with both New Delhi and Moscow
and will probably have significant influence^in the
new state. There is also another crop of potential
leaders--the younger men who have been carrying out
the guerrilla struggle within East Pakistan--who
can be expected to play an important role. The po-
litical and ideological orientations of these men
are believed to vary widely, however, and it is not
clear how they will affect the policies of the new
country.
On the western front, advancing Indian forces
in West Pakistan's Sind Province apparently have
begun to encounter stronger Pakistani resistance as
13 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulktin
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they approach the more populated areas. Heavy fight-
ing has been reported near Nayachor, some 30 miles
from the border. If Nayachor falls and the In-
dians press on toward Hyderabad, the Pakistanis
may have to move forces from farther north down to
the Sind in order to prevent the Indians from cut-
ting off Karachi from the rest of the country. In
the north, fighting continues with no major advances
by either side. Both sides claim limited success
in the Chhamb and Sialkot sectors, but each admits
it is encountering strong resistance.
India's bombing of military targets in West Pak-
istan's major cities appears to have tapered off, at
least for the time being. Late on 11 December the
Pakistani radio was reporting that there had been
no air attacks on any West Pakistani airfields for
24 hours. In Karachi, oil storage facilities con-
tinued to burn, although no new air strikes were
reported there over the weekend. The Pakistanis
made some weekend raids against Indian airfields
in Kashmir and northwest India, but the Indians
claim that the damage was minimal.
A five-man Soviet delegation led by Deputy For-
eign Minister Kuznetsov is in New Delhi for several
days of consultations. An Indian spokesman said
that his government would be discussing with Kuznet-
zov the question of Soviet recognition of Bangla
Desh, but according to US officials in Moscow there
are no indications that the Soviets are on thc- brink
of recognizing Bangla Desh. A Soviet Foreign Min-
istry official remarked on 9 December that Soviet
recognition did not yet appear imminent, and an In-
dian official in Moscow voiced a similar belief.
However, the establishment of a Bengali government
iix sangla Desh--even on an interim basis--would in-
crease the pressure on Moscow for early recognition.
(SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM) 3
13 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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POLAND: Party leader Edward Gierek received a
strong mandate at the sixth party congress to trans-
late his general policy objectives into concrete
programs.
The congress dedicated the party to Gierek's
consumer-oriented policies, and most of the leaders
it elected will support Gierek's attempts to reform
Polish society. The congress did not produce a def-
initive program, but in his closing address Gierek
said that the new central committee would soon meet
to work out details. In addition to overhauling the
planning and management of the economy, Gierek wants
to refashion the educational system and develop a new
labor code. A revised trade union law and new con-
stitution are also included in Gierek's planning.
Gierek promised that all these programs would
be aired publicly during the parliamentary elections
which, he said, should be held in 1972, one year
early. To date, Gierek's innovations have been de-
signed to improve the lot of the average Pole and to
convince him that he will benefit from a unified and
efficient operation of the country. Nothing was said
at the congress to suggest that the limitations on
individual liberties and freedom of expression will
be relaxed.
The party leadership elected at the congress
has a progressive, modern flavor compared to its
predecessors, aad can be expected to attack Poland's
problems in a vigorous manner. Several of the men
who played an important role in consolidating
Gierek's power over the military, secret police, and
farm production were advanced in the party order,
indicating Gierek's continued political strength.
The party changes suggest that a shake-up in the
government apparatus may also be in the offing.
(CONFIDENTIAL)
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Tang Kou
Prakhant
Road cut~Skoi?n
Prok Phnou
s
enemy harassing atta41
Miles
0 Government-held location
0 Communist-held location
eTay Ninh
Bat Doong.,
Phnom BasnIO
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CAMBODIA: The Communists are maintaining the
military initiative in the Phnom Penh area.
Enemy forces inflicted another setback on gov-
ernment troops over the weekend by capturing Phnom
Baset, 12 miles northwest of the capital. Two of
the fo;-r Cambodian battalions defending that posi-
tion quickly retreated toward the town of Prek Phnou
at the outset of the Communist attack. The other
two battalions held their ground, but soon withdrew
under orders to a new position several miles far-
ther east. Their present status is unknown, however.
Phnom Baset reportedly has been the target of heavy
US air strikes.
The Communists also hit Phnom Penh's airport
with five 122-mm. rockets or, Saturday night and, at
the same time, carried out harassing attacks against
the village of Samrong--some four miles west of the
airfield--and against Prek Phnc.u, a few miles out-
side the city's northern perimeter. No casualties
or serious damage were reported in those actions.
Government clearing operations south and well west
of the capital have thus far made no significant
contact with the enemy.
On the Route 6 front, belated Carr.,:odian reports
indicate that the Communists overran four small gov-
ernment defensive positions several miles southeast
of Kompong Thom town on 9 December. To the south,
on the same day, enemy mines caused extensive damage
to a section of Route 6 a few miles below Prakham.
Until repairs are .Wade, it will be difficult to move
supplies up the roadway to Cambodian unit: at Tang
Eouk.
In
eastern Cambodia, some sharp fighting oc-
curred
over the weekend during the course of
a
planned
South Vietnamese withdrawal from the
Dambe
sector.
Losses on both sides reportedly were
high.
(SECRET
NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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YUGOSLAVIA: President Tito has cracked down
hard on Croat nationalists.
Yesterday Croat party boss Dabcevic-Kucar and
her three proteges--Miko Tripalo, Pero Pirker, and
Srecko Bijelic--resigned at a republic party plenum.
Al). the deposed leaders accepted some degree of re-
sponsibility for a lack of vigilance in handling
recent strident protests against the subordination
of Croat economic interests to federal programs.
However, they firmly denied Tito's charge that they
were in collusion with hostile Croat emigres abroad.
About 14 student nationalist leaders were arrested
on Saturday, and Tito has personally suspended a
Croat general, Janko Bobetko, for undermining public
trust in the party and army.
In spite of Dabcevic-Kucar's leniency toward
the students, she was able to restore order within
the student community. Now that Tito has taken such
harsh measures, a new round of student trouble n.ay
develop. At least one peaceful student demonstra-
tion occurred yesterday in support of Dabcevic-Kucar
and Tripalo.
The new, as yet: unnamed, Croat party leadership
will find it difficult to restore the Croatians'
confidence in the federal leadership and Tito's con-
fidence in Croatia. Tito's stern actions against
such a wide range of Croat leaders underscore the
serious dimensions of the threat to Yugoslav unity
posed by Croat nationalism. (CONFIDENTIAL)
13 Dec 71 Central /aelliaence Bulletin 8
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EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES - US: French opposition
to a formal negotiating mandate for EC-US trade
talks almost certainly means that negotiations will
not begin this week, as the US had wished.
At the EC Council meeting on 11 December, French
Foreign Minister Schumann argued that the willingness
to begin immediate negotiations expressed earlier
this month at the Group of Ten meeting in Rome was
not a "community commitment." Schumann stressed that
currency realignment--including devaluation of the
dollar--should precede any EC trade concessions. He
reportedly reacted favorably, however, to the sub-
stance of what the EC Commission had proposed as ne-
gotiating points.
Most of France's partners favor immediate adop-
tion of a negotiating mandate for the Commission.
However, they are said to believe the US "has been
pressing too hard" on the trade issue and that it
was impossible to expect negotiating results in time
for the resumption in Washington of the Group of Ten
financial talks at the end of this week.
Although the meeting on 11 December adopted a
declaration of intent to begin trade negotiations
"as soon as possible," the permanent representatives
of the Six in Brussels are not likely to finish pre-
paring a formal mandate until 15 December at the
earliest. Their discussions will be based on the
detailed recommendations which the Commission had
submitted to the Council. These proposals--outlin-
ing a few EC concessions but also suggesting US re-
ciprocity in the trade field--could require consid-
erable deliberation among the Six, and the US Mis-
sion in Brussels thinks it probable that negotia-
tions with the US can begin no earlier than next
week.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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SECRE'.'
UN-CYPRUS: Contentious debate is likely when
the Security Council meets today to consider a six-
month extension of the mandate of the UN force in
Cyprus (UNFICYP),
Secretary General Thant has recommended another
renewal of the mandate, which is due to expire on
Wednesday. He has also advocated greater involve-
rnent of the Council in the search for a solution to
the irtarcommunal tensions on the island. In that
connection he has noted that his proposal for talks
among representatives of the Greek and Turkish Cyp-
riots, Greece, Turkey, and the UN has not made much
headway. At issue are tvl, precise roles to be
played in the negotiations by the "outside" ele-
ments, i.e., Greece, Turkey, and the UN. Nicosia,
Athens, and Ankara are in agreement that a UNFICYP
presence remains essential at this time.
Although an extension of UNFICYP's mandate is
probable, Security Council agreement is likely to
prove more difficult to secure than heretofore. For
some time there have been signs of increasing frus-
tration, especially among the seven nations contrib-
uting troops to UNFICYP, over the deficits run up
in the peacekeeping operations. Some maintain that
the ensured prolongations of the UN presence have
eased pressures on the parties to resolve the inter-
communal problem. Consequently, several of the
seven have at the least been thinking about reducing
their commitments. (CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
13 Dec 71 Central intelligence Bulletin 10
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NOTES
USSR: Soviet party chief Brezhnev reappeared
at the Polish party congress on 11 December after
a three-day unexplained absence from the proceed-
ings. Brezhnev dropped out of s;ght on 7 December
and rumors in Warsaw say he returned to Moscow for
a politburo session. Soviet Premier Kosyain, claim-
ing to be suffering from the flu, had cut short his
trip to Norway on 7 December and returned to Moscow.
Most of the other politburo members were in Moscow
on 3 December for a meeting of the Russian Repub-
lic's Supreme Soviet. If the politburo did con-
vene, the chief topic was probably the Indo-Paki-
stan war, and the decision to send Deputy Foreign
Minister Kuznetsov to New Delhi may have been taken
at that time. (CONFIDENTIAL)
TURKEY: Prime Minister Erim announced his new
government ;; ,:turday, but it still must receive a
vote of confidence from Parliament. Approval should
not be difficult to obtain, however, because par-
liamentary representation in the cabinet has been
increased and the government's reform program re-
mains basically the same as that approved last
April. Although the comprehensive economic, social,
and administrative reforms in the program will con-
tinue to spark debate in Parliament, the make-up
of the new government should facilitate the com-
promise necessary to promote acceptable legislation.
All of the cabinet posts directly related to the
reform program, except for the Ministry of Educa-
tion, have been filled with non-politicians. Al-
though some of the more liberal members of the of_-
ficer corps may be dissatisfied with the extent of
the reforms, this government would seem to have a
better chance of success than either of its prede-
cessors. (CONFIDENTIAL)
(continued)
13 Dec 71 Central Intellir;cni:e Bulletin 11
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SENEGAL-CHINA: Senegal and Communist China
have agreed to establish full diplomatic ties, ac-
cording to a joint communique. Senegal also an-
nounced its recognition of the mainland government
as the sole legal representative of the Chinese peo-
ple. The move was foreshadowed in October when
Senegal switched its position in the UN to support
the admission of Peking and expel the Nationalists.
Although Senegalese President Senghor remains deeply
suspicious of the Communists, he reluctantly con-
c:luded these moves were necessary to bolster Sene-
gal's image as a "progressive" country and to ensure
that it would not be among the last of the African
states to establish relations with Peking. (SECRET)
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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