CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010097-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 13, 2001
• Sequence Number: 97
• Publication Date: December 22, 1971
• Content Type: BULL

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No Poreign Dicrent
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central intelligence Bulletin
State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file
Serar
N2 594
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 CIIADP85T00875R000800010097-3
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The CI'NI'1h
A11 INTEL LICENCE BULLEI7N is produced by the
Director of Central intelligence to meet his responsibilities for providing
current intelligence bearing on issues of national security to the President,
the N:-Ziunal Security Council, and other senior government officials. It
is produced in consultation with the Departments of State and Defense.
When, because of the time factor, adequate consultation with the depart-
mnzr-t of primary concern is not feasible, items or portions thereof are pro-
duced by CIA and enclosed in brackets.
Interpretations of intelligence information in this publication represent
immediate and preliminary views which are subject to modification in the
light of further information and more complete analysis.
Certain intelligence items in this publication -nay be designated specifically
for no further dissemination, Other intelligence items may be disseminated
further, but only on a need-to-know basis.
WARNING
This document contains information affecting the national
defense of the United Sautes, within th, meaning of Title
18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended.
Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthcrized person is prohibited by law.
GROUP 1
Excluded from automctic
downgrading and
declassification
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No. 0305/71
22 December 1971
Central intelligence bulletin
CAMBODIA: Government forces reportedly relieve
troops at Prakham. (Page 1)
INDIA-PAKISTAN: Some progress toward restoring
order n Bangles Desh. (Page 2)
25X6
USSR-EGYPT: Moscow has denied it will back the Arabs
in a war to regain occupied territory. (Page 5)
PERU--CUBA: Fidel Castro's visit has strengthened
Velasco's credentials with the left. (Page 7)
25X6
MALI: Grain shortacres are generating pressure on
the ruling military committee. (Page 9)
25X6
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS: Exchange par-
Tti%s (Page 10)
MAURITIUS: End of general strike (Page 11)
SOUTH-WEST AFRICA: Strike (Page 11)
VENiZUELA-COLOMBIA: Improved relations (Page 13)
LAOS: Respite in enemy ground activity (Page 13)
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SECRET
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CAJBO?OR: Phnom Penh Area
c KCofnpong
NO FOREIGN DISSEMI:hhnang
5523,14 1;' n CIA I
Tang Koukl
t:n~n:~~s~~~ist s,~ro hi ~a~e Praldiam
Skoun
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SECRET
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CAMBODIA: Government troops reportedly relieved
beleaguered forces at Prakham yesterday.
Press reports indicate that elements of a 12-
battalion Cambodian task force from Skoun, supported
by heavy US air strikes, cleared Route 6 up to Prak-
ham, which has been under heavy enemy pressure for
over a week. Present plans reportedly call for gov-
ernment troops at Tang Kouk to push south toward
Prakham. The plan suggests that the go,.arnment is
ready to abandon Tang Kouk, now the last major gov-
ernment position between Skoun and Kompong Thom town
some 50 miles to the north. Bowing to criticism
over his interference in earlier tactical operations
along Route 6, Prime Minister Lon Nol has delegated
control over the Prakham relief operation to the
army's general staff.
The Communists are still exhorting their troops
to achieve a total defeat of government forces on
Route 6. A recent Khmer Communist propaganda broad-
cast specifically cited Skoun, Tang Kouk, and Kom-
pong Thom as targets in a "third phase" of the en-
emy's current campaign. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
22 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Q INDIA-PAKISTAN: The Indians are making some
progress toward restoring order in Bangla Desh.
Shooting and mob action have lessened in Dacca
and the Iizdi.ans have arrested the Mukti Bahini of-
ficer responsible for the widely publicized, brutal
executions on Saturday. Bangla Desh civil servants--
presumably in conjunction with the Indian Army--have
restored part of the rail transport system and, ac-
cording to the press, Indian Airlines will soon be-
gin operating domestic flights within Bangla Desh.
The Bengalis have also begun to assess the food sit-
uation, and a planning cell has been established to
work out a reconstruction program and a plan for re-
habilitating the refugees. The senior civil servant
in the government, however, estimated that it would
be three or four weeks before he would be able to
discuss specifics with UN officials.
According to an IndiE.n Foreign Ministry offi-
cial, India and Bangla Desh have already signed a
treaty providing for Indian economic assistance, and
India has established a pool of technical experts
on which Bangla Desh can draw. Another source re-
ports that the treaty also provides that neither
country will enter into defense arrangements preju-
dicial to the other, and that there will be mutual
:;onsultation if either party is threatened.
While the Indians and the civil servants are
working in Bangla Desh, the government remains in
Calcutta. Bangla Desh President Mujibur Rahman--
who might be able to give the government more vig-
orous direction--remains in Pakistan, although ac-
cording to Pakistani President. Bhutto he is to be
released from prison to house arrest "soon."
In Pakistan, President Bhutto has not yet named
his cabinet, but huJ announced the appointment of
Nurul Amin as vice president and Aziz Ahmad as sec-
retary general of the Foreign Ministry. Bhutto will
serve as his own foreign minister. Amin, an East
Central Intelligence Bulletin
:9
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SECRET
Q Pakistani loyal to Islamabad, had been Yahya's choice
for prime minister, but is unlikely to have much in-
fluence in policies of the Bhutto government. His
appointment was probably designed both to please
conservative West Pakistanis and to keep alive the
idea that East Pakistan is still part of the country.
Ahmad's appointment is apparently designed to
shake up the Foreign Ministry, with which Bhutto has
been dissatisfied. Ahmad and Bhutto worked together
closely during the mid-1960s when they held the two
top posts in the Foreign Ministry, and coiperated
closely on moving Pakistan closer to Peking. (CON-
FIDENTIAL)
Central Intelligence Ralletin 3
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 25X6
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USSR-EGYPT: The Soviet Foreign Ministry has
"officially and categorically" denied that the So-
viet ambassador in Cairo had pledged that the USSR
would back the Arabs in a war to regain Israeli-
occupied territory.
Ambassador Vinogradov reportedly had told a
group of Egyptian journalists on 15 December that
if the Egyptians must resort to war, the Soviets
would "support you so that it will be a war with
minimum losses." His remarks were carried in only
two Egyptian newspapers, and received no mention at
all by Soviet news media. The disavowal yesterday
py a counselor of the Foreign Ministry's Near East
pivision, speaking on behalf of the "highest Soviet
authorities," came several days after the US Embassy
pad requested an appointment. The counselor stressed
that the alleged statement contradicted official So-
viet policy, and that Vinogradov himself has assured
$oscow that he had been "misquoted." In an unusual
departure that indicates Moscow's sensitivity on
the subject, the counselor volunteered that he had
delayed the appointment with the US Embassy officer
until he could check with Vinogradov and give an
"official" reply.
The Soviet spokesman said that his government
also wanted to assure the US that Soviet policy in
the Middle East is firmly committed to a "political"
gettlement of the crisis. In order to make certain
that the Egyptians do not misunderstand this commit-
ment, he noted that Vinogradov would probably make
a "quiet approach" to the Egyptian Foreign Ministry
to clarify Moscow's views. Vinogradov would also
instruct the Soviet press attache in Cairo to voice
Soviet displeasure over the incident and get the
Egyptian press to drop the story.
Several days after Vinogradov's conversation
with the Egyptian journalists, Egyptian Foreign Min-
ister Riyad remarked publicly that the Soviets had
22 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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not pledged to fight on behalf of the Arabs in order
to liberate the occupied territories. Riyad's re-
marks may have been in response to a Soviet demarche.
The Soviets have consistently cautioned Cairo
on the consequences of renewed fighting and have
stressed that Soviet forces would not aid the Egyp-
tians if Cairo initiated hostilities. This is the
message that Riyad received in Moscow last summer,
and it was repeated to Egyptian President Sadat when
he was in the USSR in October. (SECRET NO FOREIGN
DISSEM)
Central Intelligence Bulletin 6
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PERU-CUBA: The visit of Fidel Castro to Peru
early this month has strengthened President Velasco's
credentials with the Peruvian left.
The meeting between the two leaders was cordial;
Castro assured Velasco that Cuba would not sponsor
any insurgency in Peru and praised the Peruvian rev-
olution. Although there has been some editorial
criticism in Peru of the visit and reportedly some
military criticism as well, even those who oppose
Castro approve of the government's show of "inde-
pendence" from the US.
President Velasco may now feel strong enough
to crack down on Communist-led labor agitation, which
has caused serious problems in the mines. In addi-
tion, the government next month may renew its ini-
tiative for a review by the OAS of its diplomatic
and economic sanctions against Cuba--a move s'uspeiided
last week. In any event, Peru probably will resume
diplomatic relations with Cuba sometime next year
and is likely to continue its commercial dealings
with the Castro government. (CONFIDENTIAL)
22 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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 25X6
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MALI: Grain shortages are generating heavy
pressure on the ruling military committee.
A difficult situation seems to be building
around the reluctance of Mali's farmers to sell
their grain to the state monopoly at artificially
low prices. Their preference for selling to private
speculators or holding grain for sale later in the
year at higher prices has contributed to a short
supply in most urban areas. This, in turn, has
produced high prices and considerable grumbling
among civil servants and urban workers. Smuggling
to neighboring countries plus a poor harvest also
have contributed to the shortages. Twenty-five
thousand tons of emergency food relief have been im-
ported from the US since mid-year.
Alienation of a major segment of the populace
seems certain no matter which way the government
moves to solve the problem. To ensure adequate
grain supplies in the cities farmers must either
be persuaded to sell to the state monopoly or al-
lowed to sell to the private sector for higher
prices. President Traore has promised farmers he
would not use forced grain levies. Suc! levies by
the previous government contributed to its over-
throw in 1968. Mali's leadership is also corrrnitted
to curtailing the speculators and maintaining cur-
rent official price levels, however. Civil serv-
ants and organized workers, already at odds with
the government over other issues, have had no,sub-
stantial pay raise since 1958 and can ill afford
higher grain prices.
The alienation caused by this problem is not
likely to lead directly to the ouster of the govern-
ment, but it could cause increased frictions within
the hard-pressed military committee over how to
handle this and other mounting problems. It may
also strengthen sentiment expressed privately by a
few members of the committee, including President
Traore, that the time had come to arrange a return
to civilian rule. (CONFIDENTIAL)
22 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS: West
Germany on Monday corrected its previously announced
exchange parity of 3.223 marks to the dollar to
3.2225, changing the mark's appreciation in terms
of gold from 4.6 to 4.4 percent. South Africa be-
came the .. viy country to devalue its currency by
more than the US dollar by depreciating 12.28 per-
cent relative to gold. This large depreciation will
aid the South African gold industry, which is the
source of three fourths of non-Communist gold pro-
duction and is hard pressed by rising production
costs. India revalued its rupee by approximately
5.5 percent in terms of gold, a change equivalent
to about three percent relative to the US dollar.
Venezuela revalued the bolivar, including the spe-
cial rates for oil and iron purchazc ;, by approxi-
mately two percent relative to the dollar. Four
OECD countries--Austria, Australia, Portugal, and
Spain--have still not set new exchange rates. (CON-
FIDENTIAL)
(continued)
22 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 10
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SE "_ T
 v
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MAURITIUS: Stern reaction by the government
and lukewarm popular support have forced the leftist
opposition party, Mauritian Militant Movement (MMM),
to end the general strike among its supporting
unions. The government used its emergency powers
to recruit workers to replace strikers in essential
services, to threaten some striking dock workers with
possible deportation, and to ban MMM rallies. The
strikers, faced with heavy year-end expenditures,
were less willing than their leaders to prolong the
strike, and much of the general public blamed the
MMM for food shortages and high prices caused by the
dock tie-up. The government is now contemplating
additional reprisals designed to restrict MMM union
activists. Tension is likely to persist because the
MMM, despite miscalculating its ability to conduct
a general strike, still has a broad popular follow-
ing. (CONFIDENTIAL)
SOUTH-WEST AFRICA: A strike of Ovambo mine
workers, now in its second week, is growing in size
and may be reaching into other sectors of the econ-
omy. The strikers' grievances center primarily on
the outdated contract labor system, which they con-
sider a form of slavery. Mine officials have been
returning the strikers, who now number nearly 10,000,
to their home areas and are seeking replacements
from other tribal groups. Although immediately
triggered by a 1, )or grievance, the strike has roots
in the general non-white political ferment in South-
West Africa which has been slowly growing since the
International Court of Justice decision in June that
South Africa's presence in the territory is illegal.
The South African Government is watching events
closely and no doubt hopes to head off a showdown
between the workers and management that could en-
courage non-white expectations and harsh interna-
tional criticism. (CONFIDENTIAL)
(continued)
22 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 11
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a Government-held location
OCommunist-held location
o Fire support base
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SECRET
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VENEZUELA-COLOMBIA: The visit of Venezuelan
Foreign Minister Calvani to Colombia last week fur-
thered the two governments' continuing efforts to
play down their differences. A mixed commission
was formed to study all aspects of Colombian-Vene?-
zuelan relations and agreement was reached to begin
negotiations on 21 February on the disputed boundary
in the Gulf of Venezuela. Other substantive dis-
cussions were postponed for subsequent meetings.
The deliberate nurturing of official friendliness
over the past several months has significantly im-
proved relations between the two countries. (SECRET)
QL'AOS: There has been a respite in enemy ground
activity in the Plaine des Jarres area. No informa-
tion is available to indicate whether the North Viet-
namese are continuing their push Westward from the
Plaine. The two remaining irregular fire support
bases on the Plaine--Stingray and Cobra--were aban-
doned on 20 December. On the night of 20-21 Decem-
ber sappers struck the government base at Long Tieng,
damaging four forward aix controller aircraft and
wounding a number of Meo civilians. Some Meo have
already begun leaving the valley, increasing the
likelihood that at least some of the Meo irregulars
may withdraw with them. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
22 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 13
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