(CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020097-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2001
• Sequence Number: 97
• Publication Date: May 2, 1972
• Content Type: BULL

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 Approved For Release 2005/06/09: CIA-RDP85T00875R00080 (uPi
No Foreign Dissem
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intellzence bulletin
DIA, DOS Declassification/Release Instructions on File
WOMEN SERVIC"E BRMIMUR~F I I E V'S 4- P, y
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 Approved For Release 2005/06JWDP85T00875R000800020097-2
The CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN is produced by the
Director of Central Intelligence to meet his responsibilities for providing
current intelligence bearing on issues of national security to the President,
the National Security Council, and other senior government officials. It
is produced in consultation with the Departments of State and Defense.
When, because of the time factor, adequate consultation with the depart-
ment of primary concern is not feasible, items or portions thereof are pro-
duced by CIA and enclosed in brackets.
Interpretations of intelligence information in this publication represent
immediate and preliminary views which are subject to modification in the
light of further information and more complete analysis.
Certain intelligence items in this publication may be designated specifically
for no further dissemination. Other intelligence items may be disseminated
further, but only on a need-to-know basis.
WARNING
This document contains information affecting the national
defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title
18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended.
Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
declassification
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No. 0105/72
2 May 1972
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Central Intelligeihe
ulletin
VIETNAM: Communists maintain pressure on government
forces in northern provinces. (Page 1)
CHINA: Further signs of high-level political trou-
bles. (Page 4)
PANAMA: Torrijos may decide to shift to a softer
line in the canal treaty negotiations. (Page 5)
TURKEY: Assessment of new premier. (Page 6)
ISRAEL-JORDAN: Municipal elections in the West
Bank (Page 7)
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NO FORE!GV DISSEM
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 Approved For Release 2005/06/0~85T00875R000800020097-2
E VIETNAM: The Communists are maintaining pres-
sure on government forces in the northern provinces
following the capture of their first provincial
capital yesterday.
About 5,000 South Vietnamese are believed to
have been in Quang Tri City when it fell. Some of
them are attempting to withdraw southward, while
others are said to be completely disorganized.
There is evidence that the North Vietnamese
already are shifting some of their forces southward
into the Hue area in an effort to follow up and
exploit their successes at Quang Tri City as rapidly
as possible. While they may wait to consolidate
their position before mounting a major assault on
Hue, the Communists already have produced a state
of confusion and near panic in the city as refugees
and fleeing South Vietnamese troops push into it
from the north. The number of refugees in the city
has risen to nearly 150,000 and is expected to
reach 200,000, a situation that local officials say
they cannot handle.
The Communists are also planning further mili-
tary and political action in the populated regions
along the coast south of Hue. This action, which
is to include ground and rocket attacks on Da Nang
and possibly a major campaign against the provincial
capital of Quang Tin, reportedly is scheduled to
begin within the next few days.
Government forces in Kontum City are trying
to organize new defensive positions. South Viet-
namese officials in the city fear that it cannot
be held if the enemy strikes soon but believe
that government units may be able to hold out if
they have a few more days in which to organize and
dig in. At Pleiku to the south, morale is bad, and
there are widespread rumors that Military Region 2
commander General Dzu is exhausted and will be re-
placed.
(continued)
2 May 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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CI-Sporadic fighting and shelling attacks continue
around An Lac and west of Saigon, but there has been
no fundamental change in the situation in this area
during the past few days. In southern Cambodia,
heavy Communist pressure has forced the South Viet-
namese to abandon their cross-border operations in
the Kompong Trach area, opening still another enemy
access route into South Vietnam.
In North Vietnam, Hano:Ps propagandists have
begun to play on the theme that the US is now an
impotent adversary that, has run out of options in
Vietnam. The line was featured in a commentary
in the North Vietnamese military newspaper broad-
cast on 29 April, the day after Soviet leaders
Katushev and Firyubin wound up their trip to Hanoi.
According to the broadcast, the US bombing of Hanoi
and Haiphong was a last-ditch ploy aimed primarily
at "intimi'.Iating chicken-hearted people." Hanoi
claimed the main result of the bombing would be to
stir up anti-war sentiment in the US, thus further
weakening the administration's hand in dealing
with the Vietnam situation. The commentary ruled
out the chance that the US might reintroduce ground
forces into Vietnam, claiming such a move was po-
litically impossible.
There is no evidence that the new propaganda
line is directly related to the Soviet - North
Vietnamese consultations of last week, but the
theme could easily reflect the thrust of the North
Vietnamese position privately conveyed to the So-
viets. Hanoi may be arguing that there is little
risk in a further prosecution of the Communist of-
fensive, contending that the US can do little in
the way of effective reaction and that there is
thus little re-son for political compromise at
this point. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
2 May 72
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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CHINA: There are further signs of political
troubles in Peking.
The Chinese failed to publish their customary
stocktaking editorial or to issue any slogans for
May Day, suggesting that the leadership could not
even agree on a bland policy statement. A decision
to cancel the traditional May Day fireworks display,
allegedly as an economy measure, has obviated the
need for a major leadership turnout. The handling
of the festivities is similar to the treatment ac-
corded National Day ceremonies last October, when
Peking was attempting to mask the political dis-
array resulting from the Lin Piao purge.
In particular, the absence of a May Day edi-
torial points to political trouble. If the regime
were faced merely with the illness of an important
leader, it would presumably have little difficulty.
concocting some sort of statement for the public.
There are important differences, however, be-
tween the scenario surrounding the upheaval last
fall and the current situation. There have been
no reports of top-level leadership meetings in
Peking, and all of the active politburo figures
have individually appeared on a regular basis in
recent weeks--with the exception of Mao, who fre-
quently remains out of public view for prolonged
periods of time. Finally, Mao's picture appeared
on the front pages of Chinese papers on 1 May,
according to NCNA, and Chou En-lai and several
other top leaders reportedly greeted passersby
informally in Peking's parks yesterday. These re-
ports are clearly designed to allay suspicion that
anything untoward is occurring in the capital.
Thus major political, dif f iciilties of some kind
have arisen in Peking, but so far it does not ap-
pear that an upheaval of the magnitude of the Lin
affair is under way. (CONFIDENTIAL)
2 May 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 4
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PANAMA: General Torrijos appears to be setting
the stage for s ifting to a softer line in canal.
treaty negotiations if he decides that pressing for
better terms is unrealistic.
Torrijos still has a fear about committing
himself to something he will live to regret, rind
his suspicions that the US is tricking him have
caused frequent change; in his attitude. Now there
are indications that Torri jos is toying with the
notion of giving a nod to the best of the US offers
to date and then drumming up enthusiasm for a pleb-
iscite. He mentioned this idea last week in a long
conversation with visitors from the US National War
College and later released it, along with some of
his other generally moderate statements to the
group, to the controlled local press.
In addition, the press has carried the news
that Panama's planning office is preparing pro-,
jections of the benefits to accrue from proper-
ties that will.be transferred to Panama through a
new treaty. No publicity, however, has attended
the return of the Panamanian negotiating team.,
whose members evidently are still forging their
latest position.
Torrijos may believe that he can sell the
concessions that the US has already offered as an
important step forward, and that a plebiscite will
enable him to read the public mood and adjust his
position accordingly. If he senses that the treaty
is being interpreted as a sellout, he can then lead
an anti-US movement from a new position of strength.
(SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
2 May 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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TURKEY: Prime Minister-designate Suat Hayri
Urguplu probably will manage to put a government
together by the end of the week.
According to Urguplu, the new government--the
third since the military intervened about a year
ago--will generally reflect party representation
in Parliament. Unlike the two previous governments,
few of the ministries will be headed by technocrats.
Urguplu hopes that strong parliamentary representa-
tion will assist the passage of reform legislation,
which has been backed by the military but, up to
now, has been largely blocked by Turkish politicians.
The 68-year-old Urguplu has had a long but not
particularly outstanding career in government. An
able lawyer and energetic administrator, Urguiplu
has served in both houses of Parliament, as at cab-
inet minister, and as a diplomat. He also headed
a caretaker government for eight months in 1965.
Although a former member of the Republican People's
Party; he has been a political independent in recent
years. (SECRET)
2 May 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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ISRAEL-JORDAN: The results of today's municipal
elections in the southern portion of the Israeli-
occupied West Bank are likely to be a replay of those
in the north, where the voting extended the control
of the traditional oligarchy. In contrast to the
uncertainty that prevailed until the last minute of
the northern elections last month, the populace in
the southern portion appears relaxed and even en-
thusiastic about electing new municipal officials.
Except in Hebron, where the incumbent mayor and his
slate are running unopposed, electioneering has been
lively, with some 199 candidates vying for, 108 seats.
A large turnout of voters is likely to anger further
the fedayeen, whose demands for a boycott of the
elections in the north were completely ignored.
(SECRET)
2 May 72
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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