CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020099-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2001
• Sequence Number: 99
• Publication Date: May 4, 1972
• Content Type: BULL

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central In tellien ce
DIA, DOS Declassification/Release Instructions on File
P
ulletia~
Np 532
4 May 1972
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Secret
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c~cCf1'(L,
The CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN is produced by the
Director of Central Intelligence to meet his responsibilities for providing
current intelligence bearing on issues of national security to the President,
the National Security Council, and other senior government officials. It
is produced in consultation with the Departments of State and Defense.
When, because of the time factor, adequate consultation with the depart-
ment of primary concern is not feasible, items or portions thereof are pro-
duced by CIA and enclosed in brackets.
Interpretations of intelligence information in this publication represent
immediate and preliminary views which are subject to modification :n the
light of further information and more complete analysis.
Certain intelligence items in this publication may be dcaignated specifically
for no further dissemination. Other intelligence items may be disseminated
further, but only on a need-to-know basis.
WARNING
This document contains information affecting the national
defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title
18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended.
Its transmission or revelati?.m of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
GROUP 1
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downgrading and
declassification
Secret
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Central Intelligence
CONTENTS
D.
No. 107/72
4 May 1972
77 0
ulleftn
CAMBODIA: End of student demonstrations should ease
political tensions. (Page 1)
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NIGERIA: General Gowon aspires to leading role in
West Africa. (Page 4)
CEYLON: Military alert may be lifted (Page 6)
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BURUNDI: Insurrection in the south (Page 7)
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CAMBODIA: The decision by student leaders to
end large-scale antigovernment demonstrations should
help ease political tensions in Phnom Penh.
The s Ludents probably felt that their week-long
demonstration at the city's Independence Monument had
little chance of getting concessions from the govern-
ment and was exposing them to counter-charges of
helping the Communists. The students may also have
wanted to rethink their position on the draft con-
stitution in light of its evident overwhelming ap-
proval at the polls on 30 April. They reportedly
plan to return to classes today but have indicated
that other forms of protest are now being contem-
plated.
The government's restraint in permitting the
demonstration at the monument probably helped to
calm the situation. Although it has now promised to
investigate the shooting incident at the law school
on 27 April, the regime will find it difficult to
placate the students without implicitly repudiating
Lon Nol--who has already blamed "outsiders" for stu-
dent casualties. On balance, Lon Nol handled the
dissenters skillfully, but the events of the past
two weeks will not soon be forgotten or forgiven by
the students. There are signs that the demonstrators
have won some sympathy from the Phnom Penh popula-
tion, as well as from Buddhists and several members
of the military establishment. If this is the case,
the students may be encouraged to renew their overt
opposition to the government, perhaps by zeroing in
on First Minister Son Ngoc Thanh. They apparently
feel "betrayed" by Thanh, who, they claim, had said
he would quit if the government took strong measures
against them. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
4 May 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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NIGERIA: General Gowon is working hard to pro-
mote economic cooperation and his own leadership in
West Africa.
As a result of Gowon's visits to 11 West Afri-
can states over the past two years, Nigeria has
signed an array of bilateral friendship treaties,
trade agreements, and commercial accords. Lagos'
increasing oil revenues now permit Gowon to make
more spectacular gestures, such as last week's $3-
million interest-free loan to Dahomey, which also
has received Nigerian financing for a telecommunica-
tions facility and a highway.
Nigeria's first serious interest in multilat-
eral economic associations was revealed early this
week when Gowon concluded a state visit to Togo by
signing an agreement. with President Eyadema to join
the two states in P.n "economic ensemble." It is to
constitute the nucleus of an economic community that
other West Africa:' states will be encouraged to join.
Cowon's visit overlapped the Lome meeting of the
French-speaking heads of state in the Afro-Malagasy
and Mauritian Common Organization (OCAM), and Gowon
used the occasion to reach a personal reconciliation
with Presidents Houphouet-Boigny of Ivory Coast and
Bongo of Gabon, both of whom had recognized Biafra
during the Nigerian civil war. The d4.rect contacts
established in Togo would strengthen ?owon's hand
if he should push for the formation oZ a regional
economic organization.
Gowon's recent diplomatic activities are con-
tributing handsomely to the success of his campaign
to play a leading role in West Africa. Earlier this
year he demonstrated his nationalist credentials by
pledging increased aid for the insurgents in Portu-
guese Guinea. Now he is using his charisma and
Nigeria's money to steal the attention of the smaller
French-speaking states away from the long-time re-
gional leaders, Houphouet-Boigny and Senghor of
Senegal. Both were cordial to Gowon in Togo, and
4 May 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Senghor again is speaking out for Anglophone-Franco--
phone cooperation, but the Nigerian general will
have to move with the utmost tact to avoid antago-
nizing them.
Gowon's growing regional stature is sure to be
viewed with concern in Paris, which still wields
major influence in most West African countries. The
French are now cooperating in a few regional programs
that include both French and English-speaking states,
but Paris has discouraged past efforts to create or-
ganizations spanning the cultural barrier and diluting
France's role. Nigeria's loan to Dahomey is signifi-
cant, even relative to the annual aid provided by
France. Small Francophone states, such as Dahomey,
are eager to demonstrate whatever independence they
can, although none can yet afford to jeopardize their
continuing reliance on French assistance. (SECRET)
4 May 72
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CEYLON: The military alert that began in mid-
March when the government feared a new outbreak of
insur~~:2ncy may be lifted early next week, according
to the US defense attache. Although no uprising
appears likely it the near future, the possibility
of eventual violence cannot be discounted. Ceylon's
economic situation remains difficult, and the gov-
ernment is unpopular. The authorities are in the
process of freeing some 5,000 detainees thought to
have been only marginally involved in last year's
insurrection, and some will probably join the sev-
eral hundred rebels currently at large. (CONFIDEN-
TIAL)
(continued)
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BURUNDI: The violence that began last weekend
continues and now appears to be assuming the dimen-
sions of a major insurrection that has devastated
extensive areas of southern Buruad.i. Most of the
area is out of government control a..d the army-.--
estimated at 2,800--is spread very thin but is
fighting well, according to the US Embassy. The
insurrect.i.on apparently ?s being led by survivors
of a Huta rebellion in 1965, z,lthough the government
has identified them as Hutu "followers" of Pierre
Mulele, a Eairian rebel executed by Kinshasa in
1968. At President Micombero's request, Zaire is
sending a company of troops, probably to take up
guard duties in the capital in order to free gov-
ernment troops for the field. The rebels so far
have been unable to spark a countrywide Hutu up-
rising against the Tutsi-dominated government. (SE-
CRET)
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