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December 19, 2016
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December 21, 2001
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May 26, 1972
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A toned far Release 2?05106109 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020118-8 c .., o t .. 0 2 r 71" .1,. L.L . ,r.ET-.1- ..,, I i 1... f., .,I 1,. L,. El' . I'V Approved For Release 2005/06/09: CIA-RDP85T00875R0008000 q9 No Foreign Dissem DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE Central Intelligence .bulletin State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file 015 aIR A NCH 26 May 1972 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020118-8 Approved For Release 2005/06/O*MP85T00875R000800020118-8 The CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN is produced by the Director of Central Intelligence to meet his responsibilities for providing current intelligence bearing on issues of national security to the President, the National Security Council, and other senior government officials. It is produced in consultation with the Departments of State and Defense. When, because of the time factor, adequate consultation with the depart- ment of primary concern is not feasible, items or portions thereof are pro- duced by CIA and enclosed in brackets. Interpretations of intelligence information in this publication represent immed?ate and preliminary views which are subject to modification in the light of further information and more complete analysis. Certain intelligence items in this publication may be designated specifically for no further dissemination. Other intelligence items may be disseminated further, but only on a need-to-know basis. WARNING This document contains information affecting the national defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title 18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amc ded. Its transmission or re:?vc1-lion of its contents to or re- ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. GROUP 1 Excluded from automatic downgrading and deciaisificatlon Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020118-8 Approved For Release 2005/069CIDP85T00875R000800020118-8 No. 0126/72 26 May 1972 Central intelligence Bulletin VIETNAM: Situation report. (Page 1) USSR: Shelest replaced as head of Ukrainian Commu- nist Party. (Page 3) 25X6 CHILE: Communist leaders ready to compromise on some issues with the governing coalition. (Page 5) 25X6 ITALY: Efforts to form a new government. (Page 8) SUDAN-. Numayri's moves toward the West face stif- fened opposition. (Page 10) 25X6 CEYLON: Protests over new constitution (Page 13) Approved For Release 2005/06 FIEWDP85T00875R000800020118-8 Approved For Release 2005/OttRR]A DP85TOO875R000800020118-8 r'?;~~ CluaNt; ~ 1 IYGMI KUNTUM a.r./~ PHU BON QUANG Duc y:- 'oNGr' ~ L I lrln Nrl ~i ~ IIINII/ ~l LA0? _ CAMBClDgA l.f)Nf: ~. rlll]NC~I ``+f' ~fllall l% / lllNll ~n1 '?INII ``\~ rJ ^1111 Approved For Release 2005/0f/ klp ZDP85T00875R000800020118-8 Approved For Release 2005/06/C@EQR-P85T00875R000800020118-8 K VIETNAM: The Communists are increasing pres- sure on government positions in several areas. In the central highlands North Vietnamese forces supported by tanks mounted new attacks dur- ing the night against the defenses of Kontum City. Five enemy tanks have been knocked out. Prelimi- nary reports indicate that the main enemy attack has been repelled, but fighting continues in the area. Yesterday North Vietnamese sappers infil- trated the city and skirmished sharply with govern- ment troops before being beaten back. Heavy and accurate enemy shellings also knocked out a number of South Vi tnamese artillery positions around Kon- tum and closed the airfield. Heavy fighting also broke out again north of Hue overnight as North Vietnamese infantry and tank forces attacked South Vietnamese marine lines. The enemy reportedly failed to make a major penetration, and casualties on both sides are said to be substan- tial. The South Vietnamese marines raiding behind enemy lines in Quang Tri in recent days, meanwhile, report that they have destroyed large quantitites of enemy equipment and supplies. The enemy losses, however, will tend to be offset by the substantial quantities of supplies the enemy is continuing to move into northern South Vietnam from Laos. Some of the supplies evidently are intended for the enemy buildup in the area west of Hue. Lion their forces for offensive operations and are keeping pressure on government forces on the major battlefronts, they apparently view their recent Although the Communists are continuing to posi- 26 May 72 Central Ine:elligenee Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/0$E R 85T00875R000800020118-8 1 25X1 C Approved For Release 2005/06/X4,-R'85T00875R000800020118-8 battle performance as less than satis ac oorr the vie namese+ ommunis ig command in e southern provinces nas issued an assessment of the offensive that observes that Communist military forces and political cadre had fallen far short of their ob- jectives by mid-May. The document criticizes the military units for scattering rather than concentrating their assets, and describes the Communist political operation in tr.a c ties as "paralyzed." The guidance differs markedly from an earlier optimistic assessment is- sued by the same headquarters last month. In North Vietnam, the regime is apparently still having problems with the performance of its cadre following the step-up in US bombing and the increased efforts needed to support the offensive in the South. The first hint that dissatisfaction has, reached the point where the regime is at least considering a purge of deficient cadre was contained in an article on 16 May in the Hanoi city newspaper by an official of the local party committee. He claimed that, in a combat situation, the "small seg- ment" of party members who are unequal to the new tasks are "no longer worthy of being party members." These cadre must be ostracized "in time" in order to keep the party "clean and steadfast." The article appeared only a few days after the regime had announced strict new security measures to curb "socialist abuses." Whether the problems go beyond effective performance by cadre and re-- flect some cadre dissatisfaction with Hanoi's policy on the war is not evident at present. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM) eV 26 May 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin SECRET Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020118-8 Approved For Release 2005/06/0 hl85T00875R000800020118-8 USSR: A plenum of the central committee of the Ukrainian Communist Party on 25 May elected Vladimir Shcherbitsky first secretary, replacing Petr Shelest. The change in the Ukrainian leadership had been expected since Shelest was appointed to the less important position of deputy chairman of the USSR Council of Ministers last week. Ukrainian Premier Shcherbitsky was the logical choice. At the 24th party congress in March 1971, Shcherbit- sky, a long-time protege of party chief Brezhnev, became a full member of the politburo in an elec- tion engineered by Brezhnev--an event which now makes it clear that Shcherbitsky was being groomed as Shelest's successor. The coincidence of recent events suggests that Shelest, who has a reputation as a critic of detente, lost out in debate over foreign policy. His demc'.ion would seem to strengthen Brezhnev's hand in foreign, policy. Shelest has also been a critic of some of Brezhnev's internal policies and the demotic a may ultimately have an effect in this area. Shelest may well retain his CPSU politburo seat for some time, however, as have Shelepin and Voronov, who were previously demoted to jobs not calling for politburo status. In moving up to become first secretary, Shcherbitsky will soon give up his position in the Ukrainian government. The speedy change in the Ukrainian leadership avoids the potential embarrassment of having President Nixon meet with Shelest during his visit to Kiev next week. (CONFIDENTIAL) 26 May 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/05].l6R485T00875R000800020118-8 25X6 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020118-8 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020118-8 Approved For Release 2005/06/0 k1ARR?5TOO875R000800020118-8 CHILE: Communist Party leaders, temporarily successful. in the showdown within the Popular Unity (UP) coalition over violent tactics, are now ready to compromise on some other issues. Communists 25X1 C 25X10 agree with President Allende that the con-- s.an conflicts within the UP must cease. They reportedly have dropped their opposition to a cabinet reorganization, so long as they continue to hold the same ministries. Fearing that Allende's opposition to a plebiscite is weakening, t=iey will reluctantly accept the Socialists' insistence on using this device to test public support for the government. On the use of violence, however, no lasting agreLment is likely. The Communists do not be- lieve that the Socialist leaders' recent public repudiation of the violent activities of the Move- ment of the Revolutionary Left (MIR) will end their behind-the-scenes support for the increasingly active MIR. In fact, neither the Socialists nor national leaders of smaller extreme leftist UP parties can--or wane to--control local members who prefer to make common cause with the MIR. The Communists are shrewd enough not to unite their UP rivals by pushing the advantage they gained last week on the violence issue. They are well aware that in several areas, such as labor union elections next week and the mismanagement of the Chuquicamata copper complex, they are themselves vulnerable to challenge. They are conscious too that despite Allende's preference for the cautious tactics the Communists favor, he has often given it to hard-line Socialist pressures on vital issues. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM) 26 May 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/0~EfkM'F85T00875R000800020118-8 25X6 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020118-8 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020118-8 Approved For Release 2005/06/Of)1 t1'85TOO875R000800020118-8 ITALY: Formal consultation leading to a new government will begin soon but the prospects for forming a lasting coalition remain uncertain. Informal exchanges among top political leaders show a willingness to reconstitute a center-left coalition but only if the Socialist Party retreats from its demands that the Communists be allowed to contribute to legislative programs. So far, So- cialist leaders have not publicly corunitted them- selves, and they may not take a final position until internal problems are sorted out at a na- tional party congress next autumn. The attractions of power and patronage will be difficult for the Socialists to resist. Ul- timately they probably will submit to coalition discipline and drop their insistence on a greater parliamentary role for the Communists. in the interin, Italy will be governed by a minority coalition or an all-Christian Democrat caretaker Government. The Socialists reportedly are prepared to support a tripartite combination composed of their former center-left partners (Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, and Re- publicans) as long as it is understood that the Socialists will be included in a more permanent center-left ccalit`.on after the fall party con- gresses. Christian Democrat leaders also prefer a temporary tripartite government. They are con- cerned that Italy's many problems will seriously weaken their party if they continue to govern alone. If the Christian Democrats and Socialists postpone a decision on future cooperation until 26 May 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X6 Approved For Release 2005/06/O?9&k-- X85TOO875R000800020118-8 SECRET Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RD 85T00875R000800020118-8 after their party congresses in the fall, an all- Christian Democrat government may be the only solu- tion available in the near term. The newly elected parliament convened yesterday and will spend its first few sessions electing of- ficers to head the Senate and Chamber of Deputies. After this is resolved the floor leaders of the various parties are elected and formal consultat4.ons prior to the naming of a premier-designate by Pres- ident Leone will begin. (SECRET No FOREIGN DISSEM) 26 May 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin SECRET Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020118-8 Approved For Release 20054W. &krWDP85T00875R000800020118-8 SUDAN: The pro-Egyptian faction in the govern- ment is stiffening its opposition to President Nu- mayri's moves toward the West. Minister of Economics Mansur confided to a US official in Khartoum that Numayri was coming under increasingly heavy criticism for going too far in developing ties with Western nations, especially the US. In Mansur's view the benaf its to be derived from a formal resumption of relations with the US would be outweighed by the political storm this ac- tion would generate. Mansur's observations should be interpreted against a. background of worsening Sudan-Egypt rela- tions and the ouster over the past three months of a number of ministers and other officials who favor close ties with Cairo. Numayri has now begun to weed out a number of pro-Egyptian army (.)fficers from responsible positions, and he is said to be ready to move against some of his remaining critics in the cabinet. The Eqyptians and their friends in the Khartoum government have tried to halt Numayri's gradual loosening of Sudan's ties with the Arab world and to turn him away from his concentration on domestic problems. The almost daily meetings of the politi- cal bureau of the ruling Sudan Socialist Uni.o,i over the part week could indicate a climatic debate on these issues, particularly on foreign policy. (CON- FIDENTIAL) 26 May 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 114 Approved For Release 2005/0?W.A-DP85T00875R000800020118-8 25X6 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020118-8 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020118-8 Approved For Release 2005/06trIK-kDP85T00875R000800020118-8 171111 ISI AHII COLOMBO* c3CEYLON Approved For Release 2005/0g/ RI DP85T00875R000800020118-8 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA R 85T00875R000800020118-8 CEYLON: The minority Tamils are becoming more active nnpprotesting the new constitution enacted last Monday. The Tamils, who comprise about 22 per- cent of the population, insist that the new charter does not adequately guarantee the use of their lan- guage in Tamil areas of the country. Although most of the protest activities have remained non-violent, Tamil students in the Jaffna peninsula reportedly have begun harricadinq roads, clashing with the po- lice, and damaging vehicles and public facilities. Similar incidents on a smaller scale have been re- ported at Trincomalee and Batticaloa, which, like Jaffna, are located in areas where Tamils are con- centrated. Government security forces apparently have been exercising restraint so far and have avoided the use of firearms. They may, however, be forced to become tougher, particularly if large num- bers of Tamils decide to support the students rather than the more restrained Tamil political leaders. (CONFIDENTIAL) 26 May 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/09 i P85T00875R000800020118-8 sEb