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December 19, 2016
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December 12, 2002
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November 10, 1972
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Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R0008 DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE Central Intelligence Bulletin DIA, DOS Declassification/Release Instructions on File 25X1 N2 582 10 November 1972 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020253-8 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020253-8 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020253-8 Approved For Release 2005/0 25X1 VIETNAM: Hanoi, Moscow, and Peking register dis-? satisfaction with Vietnam negotiations. (Page 1) CHILE: New military cabinet officers challenged by Allende allies. (Page 4) Central Intelligence bulletin 25X6A THAILAND-CHINA: Bangkok moving to improve relations. (Page 5) EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: EC may be modifying demands for preferential access to Mediterranean markets,. (Page 6) USSR: Speculators exploiting harvest problems. Page 7) HONDURAS: Growing dissatisfaction with Cruz re- gime. (Page 8) 5T00875R000800020253-8 25X1 EAST GERMANY: Refugee flow triples (Page 9) CAMBODIA: Government troops finally clear Route 5 (Page 11.) Approved For Release 2005/0 5T00875R000800020253-8 25X1 Approved For Release 2005106/09 : CIA-RD 85T00875R000800020253-8 25X1 VIETNAM: Hanoi, Moscow, and Peking are taking different tacks in registering their dissatisfaction with the current state of the Vietnam negotiations, but all three have avoided positions that might jeopardize prospects for a settlement. Of the three, Moscow lets its eagerness for a settlement show most clearly. Prior to 31 October, when Hanoi was talking about a deadline for signing the agreement, Premier Kosygin openly diverged from the North Vietnamese position by expressing the hope that the talks would continue. At the same time, TASS reported Dr. Kissinger's statement that the re- maining issues are less difficult than those already settled. Speaking for the Soviet leadership on 6 November, Politburo member Mazurov noted that the agreement worked out in Paris "was not signed at the date fixed," but left open the possibility of further negotiation and called for signing "as soon as possible." Moscow's public posture of caution tinged with hopefulness was also reflected in a remark on 30 Oc- tober by General Staff Chief Kulikov, who expressed gratification that the war was winding down and that remaining problems could now be addressed by non- military means. These comments reflect Moscow's assessment that, at long last, negotiations between Washington and Hanoi have reached a delicate and critical stage, and that nothing should be done to jeopardize prospects for agreement. Over the past year, the Soviets have come to regard the conflict in Vietnam more and more as an annoying obstacle in the way of Moscow's higher priority effort to cultivate rela- tions with Washington. The North Vietnamese, of course, have been painfully aware of this, and the Soviets will be careful to avoid so alienating them as to leave the field open for increased Chinese influence in Hanoi. Moscow probably hopes, however, Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 Approved For Release 2005406/09 : CIA-RDIP85T00875R000800020253-8 Approved For Release 2005/Q that its lukewarm support will help persuade Hanoi to be more flexible in addressing the issues still blocking agreement with the US. The Chinese were slower off the mark with au- thoritative commentary than the Soviets were, but the line when it came was markedly stiffer than Moscow's. Last week; Peking issued four progres- sively tougher statements backing much of the North Vietnamese Government statement of 26 October and attacking Washington's response. The last and by far the strongest of them appeared in People's Daily over the signature "Commentator" on 3 Novem- ber. It charged that Washington was stalling in order to renegotiate the "basic content" of an agreement the US already had accepted. The com- mentary was harsher in tone and focused more sharpy on Washington's culpability and motives than anything the Chinese have said about Vietnam since President Nixon's Peking trip, and the four statements taken together amount to the clearest and strongest backing the Chinese have given Hanoi in months on important issues -f the negotiations. Peking obviously hoped to improve its standing with Hanoi vis-a-vis Moscow through these state- ments. Beyond that, the Chinese also appeared to be signaling genuine concern that an early settle- iaent was imperiled. Commentator on 3 November said flatly that "if the US plan is successful... there will hardly be any prospect of restoring peace in Vietnam." Although Peking was careful not to rule out further. US - North Vietnamese negotiations, the Commentator article clearly warned that it is "impermissible" for Washington to disregard the original agreement ar,i that unless the US attitude changes, "it is unthinkE:Ljle that a new meeting would produce cancrete results." Peking, having made its position clear, has said nothing directly regarding a settlement in recent days. The Chinese, however, have tried to 10 Nov 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/0?/09 : CIA-RDP45T00875R000800020253-8 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/0 keep faith with Hanoi by printing and broadcasting an unusually large volume of Vietnamese Communist and Western press reports that tend to disparage Washington and Saigon. 5X1 The Vietnamese Communists themselves have kept up a drumfire of propaganda castigating the US for delaying the conclusion of the agreement. They have, however, studiousl,; avoided saying what the consequences would be if the US was not im- mediately forthcoming, and Xuan Thuy in fact made it clear in an interview last weekend that Hanoi would be amenable to a further round of negotia- 10 Nov 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/ P5T00875R000800020253-8 Approved For Release 2005/06/ T00875R000800020253-8 25X1 CHILE: The military officers who joined the cabinet last week are already being challenged by some of President Allende's political allies. Allende and his opponents both welcomed the prestige of Army General Prats in the interior min- istry as guarantor of the truce that ended the ex- hausting 26-day protest shutdown. Allende's Marxist backers, however, were less enthusiastic. While Prats guaranteed there would be no reprisals, So- cialist Party Secretary-General Altamirano has called for severe punishment of the strikers, and Finance Minister Millas apparently approved the dismissal or transfer of some 50 Central Bank em- ployees who joined the protest. Furthermore, the government-dominated distribution network is al- leged to be withholding goods from some merchants who closed down. There are other indications that the Popular Unity coalition does not intend to return to the status quo ante after its most serious showdown with the opposition thus far. Dow Chemical in- stallations--including a plant already slated for nationalization--remain in government hands, and there is little indication that they will be re- turned or that anti-UP employees will retain their jobs. This week, workers took over two firms that also retain some US capital in disputes over wage readjustments. On 8 November, Allende vubmitted legislation to establish worker participation in the management of compa either WbIf ly or par- tially nationalized. Central Intelligent, Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP8$T00875R000800020253-8 25X1 THAILAND-CHINA. Bangkok is moving ahead to improve relations with Peking. In a recent conversation with the US ambassador, the Thai Government's deputy director for Financial Affairs, Prasit Kanchanawat, said that Thailand would begin trading with China as soon as arrange- ments for a formal mechanism could be worked out. Prasit--who headed the Thai delegation to the Canton Trade Fair last month--indicated that Bangkok pre- ferred to set up a state trading organization for Thailand, which he believed would take at least two tc three months. The Chinese apparently have indi- cated an interest in purchasing sugar, jute, rubber, hard wool, and also some rice, if any is available. For their part, the Thais have indicated an interest in buying light manufactured items, fruits, and medicines. As a further indication of Bangkok's interest in improving its relations with Peking, Prasit also tried to sound out US reaction to the possibility of Thailand moving away from Taiwan along the lines of the recent Japanese move. F_ I 25X1X4 25X1X4 when Prasit first went to Peking in August, he was empowered to tell the Chi- nese that Bangkok would be willing to downgrade its relations with Taiwan if Peking proved amenable to improving its relations with Thailand. It is not clear, however, whether Prasit did indeed make such a pledge. Although Prasit told the US ambassador that Thailand felt no need to establish full dip- lomatic relations with China soon, if and when they decide to take the step the Thais are not likely to let the Taiwan issue stand in the way. F -1 25X1 10 Nov 72 Central Intelligence Bt; lletin Approved For Release 2005/0q/09 : CIA-RDPp5T00875R000800020253-8 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06 EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: Because of strong US pressure, the EC is s owing signE of modifying its demands for preferential. EC access to Mediterranean markets. The EC Council's consideration of a "Mediter- ranean policy" to guide future association agreements with countries in the area is still in an early stage, but US opposition to such "reverse preferences" is clearly having some effect. Prior to Council dis- cussion of the subject this week, the new EC members in particular had called for serious attention to the '?polttical implications" of the proposed policy. At the meeting itself, Britain and Germany asked, in effect, that reverse preferences be generally limited to the more developed Mediterranean states--some of which may eventually become full EC members. Al- though France and Italy still insist on the principle of reciprocity, the Commission has now suggested that this be attained in ways other than by tariff concessions. Further Council sessions next month will indi- cate whether or not this week's discussion repre- sents a "breakthrough" on reverse preferences--as Commissioner Dahrendorf claims. Although the com- munity~hopes to have new arrangements in the Medi- terranean come into force in early 1974, such prob- lems as defining how the proposed policy will be applied to each country and agreeing on trade con- cessions for Mediterranean agricultural products may require considerable time to resolve. The re- quests of Greece, Turkey, Malta, Spain, and Israel to benefit from the EC's general preferential scheme for less developed countries will apparently not be acted on until the scope of the Mediterranean policy becomes clear. Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/0Q/09 : CIA-RDP$5T00875R000800020253-8 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06/ USSR: Small-time speculators are exploiting this year's harvest problems ky purchasing produce in state stores, where prices are fixed, and re- selling it in collective farm markets, where prices are free to respond to supply and demand conditions. According to the Soviet press, a "raid" on a collective farm market in Kuibyshev discovered that cabbage purchased from the state store for 6 kopeks a kilo w:;s being sold for 60 kopeks. A similar investigation in Tbilisi found a factory worker selling state store potatoes--which cost 10 kopeks a kilo--for 70 kopeks. In Dushanbe, courts are holding special sessions in the markets to punish speculators on the spot. X1 Both the potato and vegetable crops were ser- iously affected by last summer's drought. There have been sporadic shortages and some local restric- tions on purchases of potatoes and cabbage. In September, some vegetable prices in the Moscow col- lective farm market were roughly double the level of September 1971. In past years the administra- tors of local free markets have placed price ceil- ings on produce, but so far this year there have been no indications that a lid has been placed on prices. Authorities probably are unwilling to risk losing any free market supplies in a year of short- ages. This fall the leadership has taken pains to reassure the population that adequate food supplies are available, but panic buying and distribution roblems have aggravated the supply situation. 10 Nov 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/ - T00875R000800020253-8 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 HONDURAS: The commander of the air force has joined the ranks of those who have long believed that President Cruz must go. In a recent conversation with the US defense attache, Air Force Commander Colonel Soto Cano de- scribed the 17-month-old Cruz administration as the worst in the country's history. He noted that neither major political party supports Cruz, that financial conditions are deplorable, and that noth- ing was being done to solve the many social and economic problems. He implied that the military, too, had finally realized that it can no longer continue to buttress the crumbling regime and is prepared to act.. Soto ,stated that although little was accomplished under the previous administration of General Oswaidu Lopez, now chief of the armed forces, the military has no choice but to back Lopez' return to power. Cruz has ,peen recognized as a failure from the beginning, and most sectors of society have come to accept--or actively encourage--his over- throw. Traditional somnolence and procrastination, however, have worked in Cruz' favor despite a seemingly endless parade of situations which could have been used to justify his removal. The fact that the usually optimistic Soto has spoken out against Cruz may indicate that the mili- tary has reached the limits of its patience. Much depends on the readiness of General Lopez to assume the presidential sash; if he continues to delay, the military may seek someone else to lead the COUP. 10 Nov 72 Central intelligence Bulletin 8 25XT 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/06/0$ : CIA-RDP85[r00875R000800020253-8 Approved For Release 2005/06/0 25X6A NOTES EAST GERMANY: The flow of Eaut German refugees to West Germany has tripled since the implementation last June of the Four Dower and inter-German transit agreements on Berlin. US officials in Berlin state that through October, 199 refugees reported to West Berlin authorities and that many others probably entered West Germany. One of Pankow's pri:icipal concerns regarding the Berlin accords was that they would result in a sharp increase in illegal depar- tures. The continued flight of refugees could create difficulties in improving East-West German relations. The East Germans have not vet raised the issue with Bonn, perhaps because they want to avoid adding to Brandt's re-election problems. Pankow has initiated stricter traffic control meas- ures inside East Germany, but these do not involve Berlin transit traffic. Central Intelligence Bulletin (continued) Approved For Release 2005/06/0 T00875R000800020253-8 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/q /hamha~t 2 1 25X1 Approved For Release 200P/06/09 : CIA-FJDP85TOO875R000800020253-8 recant control Approved For Release 2005/06/ CAMBODIA: Government forces, led by elite Khmer t