DEVELOPMENTS IN INDOCHINA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001100010012-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 8, 2008
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: March 11, 1973
• Content Type: SUMMARY

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Top Secret
!)!RECTORATE OF
INTELLIGEN CI:
Developments in Indochina
0
r
Top Secret
1
State Dept. review completed
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11 March 1973
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Negotiations between the government and
PRG in Paris will be arduous. The PRG has
named a Liberation Front leader to head its
delegation to the talks.
Military activity in the South increased over
the weekend.
Page
1
Government sweep operations are continuing.
A Communist buildup may be occurring in Takeo
Province.
Negotiations to implement the cease-fire
agreement are moving slowly.
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VIETNAMESE POLITICAL DIVELOPMENTS
Nagotiationa in L'aric
The government is preparing for difficult and
protracted negotiations with the Communists in the
forthcoming Paris talks.
The communists will be seeking to install
a new constituent assembly and a new constitution
through elections, while the government will be
trying to ensure that any voting is held within
the framework of the present constitutional sys-
tem. The prospect for a quick resolution of these
basic: differences is at best slim.
Another vexing problem, may ariLe in the forma-
tion of the Council of National Reconciliation and
Concord (CNRC). According to Foreign Affairs Min-
ister Tran Van Lam, the government does not recog-
nize the third segment of the CNRC as a neutralist
or independent entity; it believes the council
must be composed of an equal number of pro-
government and pro-Communist supporters. Lam said
that he and the main Viet Cong negotiator at the
preliminary talks between the two sides in Paris
had agreed on this, but that Madame Binh was
reportedly "very angry" when she heard about it
and insisted on the inclusion of independents.
Thieu had ordered the South Viet-
namese delegation to approach the talks in a spirit
of reconciliation. The Viet Cong are to be treated
as a "younger brother" who has lost his way and is now
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being brought back into the family. The delegation
should try to divide the Viet Cong from Hanoi by
convincing the Communist delegation that the con-
ferees are "all South Vietnamese" and can work
together with the Northerners.
of iron-clad assurance that the other will not at
the first opportunity attack its personnel or sub-
Moderate oppositionist Nguyen Noc Huy has told
a US Embassy officer that he expects the Paris
negotiations to be broad and quite protracted. Huy,
head of the Progressive Nationalist Movement and a
member of the government's delegation to the Paris
talks, believes the main difficulty will arise over
"guarantees," with each side striving for some sort
vert its position.
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PRG Negotiat. r
Nguyen Van Hleu, who will head the Provisional
Revolutionary Government (PRG) delegation to the
political talks with South Vietnam to be held near
Paris beginning 19 March, is a long-time National
Liberation Front. (NLF) stalwart. Hieu is a member
of the presidium of the NLF Cent:: -l Committee, but
apparently does not hold a PRG post. For a number
of years he headed various NYF delegations travel-
ing abroad. He served as NLF representative in
Cambodia until that mission was withdrawn in early
1970. Since then, Hieu has not been in the lime-
1 7ght.~ The Communists usually use the Front to
appeal to a broad strata of South Vietnamese, and
this may be t cast they want to give to their
delegation.
11 March 1973
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The Military Situation
There was some increase in military activity
over the weekend, mostly as a result of government
clearing operations. In i)inh Tuong Province,
South Vietnamese regulars claim they inflicted
substantial losses on North Vietnamese units in a
three-day series of battles near Cai Lay North
of Saigon, several Communist shellings and light
ground attacks were directed against government
forces trying to reopen a provincial, road west
of Ben Cat. According to the US Embassy, Saigon
claims that in early March South Vietnamese aircraft
destroyed over 90 enemy-built shelters in this
general area.
Several sharp clashes occurre':t in western
Pleiku Province, as North Vietnamese units continue
to resist government efforts to retake a fire
support base midway between the Thanh An district
capital and the ICCS checkpoint at Duc Co. --F
In Quang Ngai Province, South Vietnamese range
and artillery have been moved into the Son Ha
Valley to interdict a recently detected Communist-
built road. According to the embassy a senior
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South Vietnamese army officer in the area says that
recent aerial reconnaissance has confirmed heavy
traffic on the road.
11 Match 1973
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C A M B O D I A
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CAMBODIA
Government forces are continuing sweep oper-
ations some 55 miles northeast of the seaport of
Kompong Som along a short section of Route 4 which
was the scene of an insurgent ambush on 7 March.
The operations are expected to end on 12 March,
allowing regular truck convoys to move between
Phnom Penh and Kom on Som.
The insurgents are keeping up their attacks
against dwindling government positions on Route 2.
Two Cambodian positions near Chambak, north of the
town on Takeo, were abandoned under heavy insurgent
pressure on 10 March; two positions east of Takeo
were also lost on the same day. The few remaining
government outposts between Takeo and the South
Vietnam border continue to be harassed.
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The only notable military activity on 9 and 10
March occurred in the north, where the Communists
forced smaller government units to abandon outposts
in the hills some 40 miles east of Ban Houei Sai
and also north of she Piaine des Jarres. Despite
the limited ground action, Lao Air Force strikes
continued against targets, such as enemy troop
concentrations of no immediate threat to government
forces. At least some of the enemy attacks in the
past few days may have been in retaliation for air
strikes.
The Negotiations
The joint committees to implement the peace
agreement continue to make little progress. Govern-
ment members of the political commission late last
week attempted to start a dialogue with the
Communists on the shape of a new coalition cabinet.
The Communists seemed eager to get the government's
views, but would make no commitments. The govern-
ment negotiators on the military commission have had
a similar experience.
Although Prime Minister Souvanna
between himself and Communist envoy Phoumi Vongvichit in
summit discussions similar to those preceding the
cease-fire agreement. Souvanna is aware that this
procedure will rekindle the ire of the rightists.
He may intend to delay agreement until the last
minute to dive them less time for troublemaking.
commission's lack of progress. He almost certainly
intends that all real decisions will be made-privately
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