DEVELOPMENTS IN INDOCHINA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001100010018-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 8, 2008
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: March 18, 1973
• Content Type: SUMMARY

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l\ ,(: / . /'/ ( -) I Up OUGIUt
DI RECTORATE OF
INTI?LL1GENCIi
Develop entf in Indochina
Top Secret
12
State Dept. review completed
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18 March 1973
DEVELOPMENTS IN INDOCHINA
(Inf'ormnation an of 1500)
COSVN has issued new orders on
Communist tactics in South Vietnam.
Fighting flared northwest of Saigon
and west of Hue over the weekend.
President Thieii discussed elections
with a French correspondent last
week. Two South Vietnamese parties
are making a last-ditch effort to
join forces.
Phnom Penh is calm, and a state
of emergency is in effect. Government
troops are moving to clear Route 2 and
the Mekong River area south of Neak Luong.
The Lao Communists say US prisoners
will be released in Laos and not in North
Vietnam. Fighting flared in the south over
the weekend. Souvanna has asked for a meeting
ouvona or his envo
my US air activity.
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NORTH VIETNAM 11
Communist spokesmen are responding
to (IS charges about Hanoi's inf'Lltration
and supply activity. The first sections
of a new article by Le Duan are available
In Washington.
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SOUTH VIETNAM
The latest policy guidelines from COSVN provide
further evidence that the Communists anticipate
heavier military action in the next few weeks.
25X1
in
mid-March COSVN issued a supplement to its earlier
directive on Communist political tactics in the
cease-fire period. The supplement stated that
after all US prisoners are home, "temporary dead-
locks" are likely to occur in negotiations and
Saigon will launch "operations to encroach upon
our areas.11 The Communists allegedly are strengthening
their main forces with men and equipment from NorLh
Vietnam so as to "stop" the South Vietnamese and
"maintain the limits of the cease-fire agreement."
The new order goes on to state that South
Vietnamese operations will give the Communists "many
good opportunities to initiate an offensive to tilt
the balance of strength and move civilians into
our areas." Such action will be aimed at capturing
hamlets and villages rather than larger stretches
of territory and will be touted as "retaliatory."
The supplement asserts that the earlier
directive proclaiming a new era of political struggle
is still in effect. It indicates, in fact, that
the Communists are planning to emphasize the political
side of the effort for several months in the belief
that they will acquire batter access to the popula-
tion as time progresses. Military operations are
to play a secondary role in this scenario.
Nonetheless, the supplement clearly suggests
that military action will remain an important part
of the over-all struggle and that cadre are to
prepare for heavier military action after the US
prisoner exchanges are completed. In addition,
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'I'unh%
Sup
Gulf of
Thailanul
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the supplement indicates that whenever they are
able to do so, the Communists intend to make it
appear that their side acted defensively.
The Military Situation
Heavy fighting occurred early in the weekend
north of Saigon and northwest of Hue, but it has
since slackened somewhat. Communist troops launched
strong attacks against a government outpost at Rach
Bap and a base camp at Lai Khe in Binh Duong Prov-
ince. These attacks have now eased, but the Commun-
ists are applying heavy military pressure farther
north against a Ranger -amp at Tonle Cham in Tay
Ninh Province. The Rangers have been unable to get
fresh supplies or to evacuate their wounded because
of heavy Communist ground fire, but they still have
control of the camp.
The government's military commander for the
region, General Minh, said on 16 March that he has
ordered heavy artillery fire and air strikes and
that he will continue them until the North Viet-
namese units pull back. Earlier the South Viet-
namese had protested the enemy actions in the area
before the Four Power Joint Military Commission
(FPJMC) and Minh had warned that if the attacks
continued, he would react strongly. The Communist
delegates on the Commission so far have successful-
ly prevented any investigation of the fighting,
according to the US Embassy.
Northwest of Hue, Communist units increased
their ground and artillery attacks along the Song
Bo River corridor. South Vietnamese control of
this area has hindered Communist infiltration and
resupply into the lowlands from their mountain
bases. Although fighting has subsided in the past
24 hours, renewed clashes are likely.
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C? ti 011 l%l.r.'c' I i (?I11~
in an interview that apparently was recordt.'l
last week w.i.r.h a French news correspondent, President
Thieu reiterated his desire for early elections with
Communist participation in order to "settle the
problem of South Vietnam once and for all," Thieu
refused, however, to be specific on details of the
elections, rioting .hat these must be decided in
the context of other issues, including North
Vietnamese troop withdrawal. Thieu expressed confi-
dence that the elections would demonstrate that the
South Vietnamese people, by clear and free choice,
do not accept the Communist Ideology. He went on to
add, perhaps in an oblique reference to some of his
recent decree actions, that if the people do not
want a Communist regime, "they must give me all the
means to overcome the Communists in this polit~.cal
Another Opposition Alliance Forming?
Two of South Vietnam's better organized parties,
the Worker-Farmer Party (WFP) and the Progressive
Nationalist Movement (PNM), appear to be making a
last-ditch effort to forge an alliance to meet the
criteria of the government's decree on political
parties by the 27 March deadline. A preliminary
organizational meeting, which took place on 14
March, was attended by labor leader Tran Quoc Buu
of the WFP, representatives of the PNM, and leaders
of various small parties associated with Catholic
laymen and with the Hoa Hao and Cao Dai sects.
Another meeting, set for 18 March, was to decide
whether to launch the alliance, and if so what its
name, internal rules, and program should be.
Both the WFP and PNM have made previous sound-
ings among the smaller religious parties, but this
is the first indication that they have been in
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contact with one another. Only a week ago Buu and
PNM leader Nguyen Ngoc Huy were both talking of
letting the deadline pass. Both parties are
moderate ind their members have been under consider-
able pressure to join up with the government's
Democracy Party. Even if the new alliance gets off
the ground, it is likely to have trouble meeting
the requirement that it win 20 percent of the total
vote in an election.
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C11M1 sc)I ) "Cif
Phnom Penh is calm followinu the bombing of
the presidential palace on Saturday and brief
student disorders earlier in the day. The Khmer
insurgents marked the third anniversary of
Sihanouk's ouster yesterday by lightly shelling
the outskirts of Phnom Penh, but no other significant
actions were reported. The state of emergency de-
clared by President Lon Nol on 17 March remains
in effect, as does a dusk-to-dawn curfew. The
government has also suspended publication of all
privately owned newspapers until further notice
and is keeping the city's security forces on
maximum alert.
There is confusion over the identity and
motives of the Cambodian air force officer
responsible fer the bombing of the presidential
palace. He recently expelled from flight
training for disciplinary reasons, but there is
no evidence linking him and the insurgents. The
government claims the pilot is the husband of one
of Sihanouk's daughters, although the US Embassy
has no information to substantiate this. Several
relatives of Sihanouk in the Phnom Penh area have
been arrested, and a number of other members of
the royal family have been removed from their
military positions.
The attack on the palace was preceded by
violence that broke out during a mass meeting of
students and teachers called to decide whether
protests against the government's economic polities
should be continued. Following a scuffle between
some students and soldiers, several grenades ex-
ploded, killing at least two students and injuring
many others. Popular reaction to the incident so far
has been mild, but additional student and teacher
demonstrations are planned for later this week.
18 March 1973
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' Kompong Thoin
PHNOM PENH*
q
3 by
Train Khnar ~h ~~~ rin~ti rt
? F 01 I.41'
2 `'Chambak
Angtassom/0,Takeo
Interdicted by
insurgents
V/V/I uArn (;I.
25X1
?Banam
Neak Luong
~. t,VI1IIlI I~:IIi .~'r.I)
Krrtio
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The Military Situation
Government troops moving eastward from Tram
Khnar reoccupied the town of Chambak on 17 March.
No significant insurgent resistance was encountered.
Plans now call for the eight-battalion force to
attempt to clear Route 2 south to the provincial
capital of Takeo. To the west of Takeo, the Khmer
insurgents have encircled the government garrison
at Angtassom and have cut Route 25 some three
miles to the east of the town. South of Takeo,
meanwhile, the insurgents continue to attack
government outposts near Phnom Den along the South
Vietnamese border.
Elsewhere, the government operation to clear
both sides of the Mekong River from Neak Luong
to the South Vietnam border began on 16 March.
Two three-battalion forces are moving south, one
along each bank of the river. At last report,
both were making slight progress against only
light enemy resistance. Mekong River pilots have
refused to sail from South Vietnam until better
security has been established in the Neak Luong
area.
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(hone
Sednne
Goranmen! ? hdd loeetlon
Q~ CGimmunht - held lowllon
~Cctn:ntunlst -uan 6havane
Phone
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( , , ,II)III,(I I".!)1. ", I., I,'III .'111 )I1 1/:i 11,,1.1;0 pl0'^0
The US Embassy in Vientiane has learned that
US prisoners of war in Laos will be released by the
Lao Communists in Laos and not by the North Viet-
namese in Hanoi.
a C o m m u n i s t o f f i c i a l V i e n t i a n e ,
acLi.ng under orders from hia headquarters in Sam
Ncua, said on 17 March that the US had already
been informed of the names and numbers of US pris-
oners in Laos--apparently a reference to the list
of US prisoners in Laos released last January by
North Vietnam. He added that these prisoners
would be released under procedures that will be
set forth in the military protocol currently being
negotiated in Vientiane.
The Mi li. t.ary Situation
Fighting flared in the south over the weekend
as Communist ground attacks forced a government
battalion to pull back from positions southwest of
Paksong on the Bolovens Plateau. North of the
Plateau, Communist units drove government troops
from defenses near Saravane and continued to foil
government attempts to occupy a village some 20
miles northeast of Khong Sedone. Field commanders
in the central panhandle reported steady skirmish-
ing southeast of Thakhek, and according to belated
reports enemy troops attacked several positions
north of Dong Hene on 16 March. Lao T-28s sup-
ported government units in both regions.
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llr11L I(ICrU11ti
It is unlikely that Souvanna, whose political
negotiating team is dominated by rightists, is
genuinely surprised at the lack of progress so far.
lie may not, however, have expected the Communists
to wait this long before sending senior negotiators
back to begin high-level discussions on a new
government.
While talks on political arrangements remain
deadlocked the two sides have ak4reed to exchange
draft protocols covering details of military
ratters such as a prisoner exchange and the with-
dra%ral of foreign troops. The drafts will be sub-
mitted for comparison and discussion at the next
meeting of the military group on 19 March. Prelim-
inary agreement may be reached on some arrangements
ical issues are resolved.
buL- the Communists will probably withhold final
acceptance of a military protocol until the polit-
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llvr~~ ore 11 rir~ac~rtrtuiuranne FZ .ghta
Like the North Vietnamese, the Pathet Lao
are condemning US military air activity. In an of-
ficial statement broadcast on 17 March, they claimed
that "US-Vientiane aircraft" have conducted numerous
"reconnaissance and bombing" missions in violation
of the Lao peace agreement. The statement warned
that the US and Vientiane would have to bear "full
responsibility for all consequences" if the cease-
fire violations did not stop. This is the second of-
ficial reaction in ten days to US reconnaissance
overflights.
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NORTH VIE'TNAM
Vietnamese Communist spokesmen have begun to
respond more directly to US char.7c!s that Hanoi's
infiltration and supply activity is violating the
Paris agreement. In a long and propaganda-laden
press conference in Saigon on 17 March, the PRG's
Tran Van 'rra apparently acknowledged indirectly
that infiltration has continued into the cease-
fire pcsriod. Because the Communists are fighting
a "protracted war against a strong and barbarous
adversary," he said, they must have adequate troop
reserves. On the subject of supply movement, Tra
claimed that his side was "waiting for the settle-
ment of question of points of entry" before
replacing its military equipment.
On the same day in Hanoi, Colonel Ha Van Lau,
formerly the second-ranking member of the North
Vietnamese Paris delegation, acknowledged that the
North was. sending supplies to South Vietnam. He
claimed, however, that only "food and medicine and
other nonmilitary supplies" were involved and that
Hanoi had the right to make such shipments under
the terms of the agreement.
Word from Le 1)uari 25X1
The first sections of a new and massive article
by First Secretary Le Duan are now available in
Washington. So far the article, like other recent
Nort`: Vietnamese pronouncements, appears to be
concentrating on the need for improving the
performance of key party members at all levels as
the North embarks on a program of "socialist con-
struction." There are hints that some sort of
party purge is in the offing, and the article
several times leaves the impression that the party
is to involve itself more deeply in day-to-day
administrative matters. These are initial impres-
sions, of course, and are subject to modification
as the rest of the text becomes available.
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