INDIA-PAKISTAN SITUATION REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001100100151-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2007
• Sequence Number: 151
• Publication Date: December 14, 1971
• Content Type: IM

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OCI No. 2173/71
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
14 December 1971
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
'I'nd'ia-P'ak'is'iv:an 'S'ituat'ion' 'Re'pOrt
As of 1130 EST
A New Ce'as'e'-Fire' 'Pro o's'al
1. Lt. General Niazi, who had been vehemently
opposed to any surrender in East Pakistan, today
approached the US consul in Dacca with a, cease-fi.re
proposal that he wanted transmitted to New Delhi.
He said that the bombing of Dacca that afternoon
had convinced him that the fighting must be stopped
immediately. The proposal, which avoids the word
"surrender," calls for an immediate. cease-fire, .the
regrouping of Pakistani armed forces in areas to
be mutually agreed upon, and guarantees for their
safety and the safety of all those who have settled
in East Pakistan since 1947.' The proposal also
asks that no reprisals be carried out against-those
who have helped the East Pakistan government since
last March. Niazi. said he had full authority to
make such a proposal and that he did not need the
concurrence of President Yahya Khan or anyone in
Islamabad. An apparent step forward in the Pakis-
tani position is Niazi's promise to abide by an UN
Security Council decision providing for a permanent
settlement of the conflict.
2. Ambassador Fa--land has been instructed to
see Yahya as soon as possible ;.:;nd find out what
Yahya wished the US to do with'the proposal.
3.' Meanwhile. ih.Dacca, East Pakistani Governor
Malik has resigned and placed himself under Red
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State Dept. review completed
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Cross protection in the Intercontinental Hotel,
which is a neutral ground under Red Cross jurisdic-
tion. The'Dacca government continues to crumble
as officials desert, some of them jumping over the
fence irto th.3 Intercontinental Hotel grounds.
Dacca reports that Government House is burning
and that the river port in the old city may have
been aknother target of Indian bombs.
Fighting in 'the East
'4. Defense Minister Ram told Parliament today
that Indian forces were closing around Dacca from
all directions and he hoped the process of liberat-
ing Bangle Desh would be "completed soon." An
artillery attack on military targets in Dacca
reportedly has begun. An Indian spokesman said
that the heaviest artillery being used were 130
mm guns with a range of little more than 15 miles.
5. The Indians report ' it all escape routes
from Dacca are sealed off, and that their air force
continues to strike pockets of Pakistani troops
isolated by the Indian advance. Some Pakistani
troops, however,, continue to withdraw towards Dacca.
Mili't'ary S'ituat'ion in the West
6. The military situation in the west remains
static except for patrolling and small unit actions.
The Indians claim that, although they remain on
the defensive,. they have foiled almost all at-
tempted Pakistani incursions.
' The 'Cost of the War So Far
7. Defense Minister Ram told Parliament that
1,9,78 Indians were killed in the first 10 days of
the war,.5,025 wounded,and 1,6,22.missing in action.
He said he had no reliable figures on Pakistani
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casualties but they were "much higher." Ram said
4,1,02 Pakistani officers and enlisted men and
4,0,66 paramilitary forces under Pakistani command
have surrendered since the start of fighting.
Return 'of East Pa'kistan'i Refu'ge'es
8. According to a representative of the UN
High Commission for Refugees, 30,000 refugees have
returned to East Pakistan, the majority of them
heads of families who are exploring conditions in
their homeland. The UN representative said that
the Indian Government is discussing plans for large
scale repatriation and he opined that progress
could be rapid.
Evacuati'on
9. According to the Indian press, Bangla
Desh 'officials have offered "all possible facilities"
for the safe evacuation of UN and diplomatic person-
nel, and other foreign nationals who wish to leave
Bangla Desh. They reportedly added that although
Bangla Desh has not yet become a UN member, it res-
pects the principles of the charter as well as the
provisions of the Geneva Convention on Human Rights.
Aft-ti- 'an'd' Pro'Americana:sm
10. In India, the US consul in Calcutta reports
that anti-American demonstrations--mostly peaceful--
are occurring with increasing frequency and unques-
tionably reflect a generalized popular rather than
partisan political mood. He said that bank employees
demonstrated at three US banks today,, threatening
to destroy the premises if they did not receive a
signed statement condemning US policy. Demonstra-
tions continue every few days at the consulate and
USIS. In Bombay, the Indian-American association
passed a resolution condemning US policy.
li. In Pakistan, a pro-American demonstration
took place today before the US consulate in Karachi.
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At the 'UN
12. The Pakistani UN delegation is demon-
strating increased desire for a Security Council
resolution that will not be blocked by a fourth
Soviet veto. Yesterday the Pakistanis drafted a
proposal that goes further in the direction of a
political solution in East Pakistan than the US
cease-fire/withdrawal proposal that was vetoed
last night. The Pakistanis apparently believe the
Soviets may accept a resolution calling for a
cease-fire with the provision that the SC would
take up other aspects later.
13.' Today the SC will probably consider a
new resolution, proposed by Italy and Japan, that
calls for a cease-fire and disengagement, as well
as immediate negotiations for a'comprehensive
political'settlement and a three-man committee of
Council members to assist India and Pakistan in
resolving their differences. Pakistan's initial
reaction to the proposal was negative.
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