PROSPECTS BRIGHTEN IN NORTHEAST INDIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001100130035-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 18, 2008
• Sequence Number: 35
• Publication Date: February 22, 1972
• Content Type: IM

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Confidential
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGLNCE
Intelligence Memorandum
Prospects Brighten in Northeast India
Confidential
89
22 February 1972
No. 0836/72
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
22 February 1972
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
Prospects Brighten in Northeast India
Introduction
One of the most significant accomplishments of
India's 1971 winter session of Parliament was the
long-anticipated passage of legislatiDn authorizing
a major political reorganization of strategically
important northeast India, which since independence
has been all but isolated from the rest of the coun-
try by the interposition of East Pakistan. The
basic purpose of the new scheme--which created three
new states and two union territories--is to reshape
the administrative apparatus in India's economically
backward eastern extremity in order to hasten devel-
opment and provide a forum in which the inhabitants
can discuss and reach agreements on matters of com-
mon concern.
The 98,000-square mile area is a mosaic of
densely populated valleys -and sparsely inhabited
hills with vast linguistic and ethnic diversities.
The 20 million inhabitants generally share little
affinity with India's predominantly H4.ndu popula-
tion. Tribal unrest and armed rebell,.on have trou-
bled the region, but New Delhi has slowly succeeded
in alleviating resentment of its control by grant-
ing substantial political concessions to groups seek-
ing greater autonomy, while pursuing a tough line
with independence-minded rebels. In the last sev-
eral years the over-all security situation has im-
proved considerably, and the sudden replacement of
a hostile East Pakistan with a friendly Bangladesh
Note: This memorandum was produced by the Office
of Current Intelligence and coordinated within CIA.
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India: Reorganization in the Northeast
?Dacca
Myilkytna
IF Uat State
Union Territory
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BAILADESH
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enhances prospects for the region's political sta-
bility and economic development. The resumption of
transit rights through Bangladesh will greatly facil-
itate access to markets in India, and the anticipated
expansion of personal contacts may help mellow the
parochialism that has retarded development in the
entire region since East Pakistan was created. 25
years ago.
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Area
Ca ital
Old
Status
New
Status
Area*
Population"
Assam
Shillong
State
State
30,400
14,528,314
Mizoram
(temporary)
Aijal
District
Union
8,100
329,000
Meghalaya
Shillong
in Assam
Sub-state
Territory
Sta-,3
8,666
983,336
Arunachal Pradesh
Ziro
in Assam
Northeast
Union
31,438
444,744
Nagaland
Kohima
Frontier Agency
State
Territory
State
6,366
515,561
Tripura
Agartala
Union
State
4,036
1,556,822
Manipur
Imphal
Territory
Union
State
8,628
1,069,555
Territory
*square miles
"1971 figures
Major Features of Reorganization Scheme
Regional governor appointed by the President of India-B. K. Nehru, former ambassador to US
Common high court
Advisory Northeast Council to foster Intra-regional cooperation chaired by Prime Minister Gandhi
Partially unified administrative apparatus
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The Northeast Problem
1. Over the years, the strategic northeast
has presented New Delhi with a problem rivaled only
by that of Kashmir. The British claimed, but never
brought under control, the entire 98,000-square-
mile area, and with Indian independent: in 1947 New
Delhi inherited a vague suzerainty over the dozens of
tribal groups that inhabit the hills surrounding
the central valley of Assam. India attempted to
assimilate the diverse inhabitants, who live in rela-
tive isolation from each other and from Hindu society,
but in the following two decades New Delhi has faced
mounting resistance with demands ranging from auton-
omy to complete independence.
2. The Indian Government has adopted a tough
policy toward the latter. This policy, coupled with
concessions to the moderate autonomists and substan-
tial economic aid, has scored considerable success.
The recent political reorganization of the area ele-
vated the status of five of the region's seven com-
ponents, thereby adding three new states and two
union territories. '(':ndia now has a total of 21
states and six union territories.) The package pro-
vided for the appointment of a single regional gov-
ernor by the. president of India, a common high court,
a partially unified a .dministrrative apparatus, and
the formation of the Northeast Council, waich will
advise on economic and security matters and which
hopefully will for the first time lead to substan-
tial intra-regional cooperation.
3. New Delhi has long approached requests for
the decentralizat?on of authority and more local
autonomy in the northeast with a good deal of cau-
tion, making such concessions dependent upon improve-
ments in the internal and external security situa-
tion. The government's confid,,.nce has been strength-
ened by relative calm in the region during the past
several years, although New Delhi still recognizes
the area's basic political instability, its economic
backwardness, and the residual histility of various
groups toward India and one another.
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4. The emergence of an independent Bangladesh
has favorable implications for the entire region.
Since the partition of India, the Indian heartland
has been linked with the northeast only by a 14-
mile-wide corridor, the Siliguri Gap. The vulner-
ability of the five Indian Army 3ivisions normally
stationed in the northeast (about 150,000 men, in-
cluding paramilitary personnel) has now been re-
duced, and India's defense effort on the eastern
front, at least for the foreseeable future, can
focus on defending the northern border facing Com-
munist China. Indian troops also can expect fewer
problems from the remaining tribal rebels who form-
erly found support and sanctuary in East Pakistan.
5. Resumption of commercial relations with
Bangladesh, which were lost following the 1965 Indo-
Pakistani war, should hasten the northeast's eco-
nomic development. The re-opening of direct sur-
face and water routes through Bangladesh to Calcutta
and ports on the Bay of Bengal is expected to bring
mutual economic benefits and chip away at provincial
sentiments nurtured by isolation. Moreover, easy
access to markets in Bangladesh and India should
provide the incentive for tapping the northeast's
abundant natural resources, particularly coal and
oil, and its vast hydroelectric potential.
Assam: Shrinking Borders
6. Assam is the only unit to lose territory
in the reorganization, but its population remains
far larger than the combined total of the other six,
and it retains the relatively prosperous Brahmaputra
Valley. Nagaland, Meghalaya, and, most recently,
the Mizo Hills (renamed Mizoram) were carved out of
Assam in answer to demands from the tribal inhabit-
ants for greater control over their own affairs.
Because of its location on the frontier facing
China, Arunachal Pradesh, formerly the Northeast
Frontier Agency, never came under direct Assamese
Lontrol. Instead, it was administered directly
from New Delhi--though constitutionally remaining
part of Assam State.
7. The array of ethnic groups found in the
northeast is explained by a long history of migra-
tion and invasion by Mongols from the north and
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Indiall Troops
Hill 1,711a qc,
ASSAM
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east and by Aryans from the west. Today most of
the people, although of tribal origin, have lost
their tribal characteristics through assimilation.
Still, there are several million people living in
the recently truncated hills beyond the central
Brahmaputra Valley who can be regarded distinctly
as tribals. Assam received a fairly heavy flow of
migrants, particularly Hindu entrepreneurs, tea-
garden laborers from near-by Indian states, and
refugees from former East Pakistan.
Assam - New Delhi Relations
8. Assamese officials do not appear to resent
dismemberment of the state as deeply as they resent
other aspects of their treatment by New Delhi. They
claim the central government has not adequately com-
pensated them for the physical isolation and economic
disadvantages i.,rposed by the creation of East Paki-
stan in 1947. When the Chinese broke through Indian
Army lines in the northeast in 1962, Prime Minister
Nehru offered the Assamese sympathy but could not
ensure their defense. To this day many Assamese
tend to believe New Delhi would be willing to aban-
don the entire region in the event of a massive Chi-
nese attack.
9. The Assamese Government's chronic complaint
about the amount of federal assistance--which con-
stitutes more than half the state's revenue and al-
most all of its developmental expenditure--was some-
what softened last year by a promise of additional
aid, including funds for another oil refinery. The
decision to construct the refinery is economically
controversial, but the Assamese, having pressed New
Delhi for several years, regarded the issue as a
test of the central government's stated willingness
to accelerate industrial development to stimulate
Assam's stagnant economy. Despite India's contri-
butions, many Assamese are likely to charge that New
Delhi still gives too little in exchange for the
profits it receives from tea, the state's major
industry.
Internal Strains
10. Although its most restless tribal areas
have been put out on their own,, Assam still faces
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pressures from tribesmen in the central Brahmaputra
River Valley and the surrounding hills. Many of
them have been heavily influenced by Protestant
missionaries. Agitation for additional privileges
and power is likely to continue. The tribesmen
will be spurred by their resentment of the state's
non-tribal Hindu majority, which controls the Assam
government and economy, and encouraged by conces-
sions already accorded other tribals. Muslim and
other minorities were given increased representa-
tion in the ministry formed by the Ruling Congress
Party in November 1970, but Hindu politicians still
predominate. The Ruling Congress holds a healthy
majority in the legislative assembly, but is trou-
bled by factionalism. At Prime Minister Gandhi's
urging the chief minister resigned last month fol-
lowing intra-party squabbles over the choice of
candidates for the elections next month. It is ex-
pected that the Ruling Congress candidates favored
by New Delhi will probably win majorities in all
but a few of the 16 state assemblies to be elected
in March.
Meghalaya: "Abode of the Clouds"
11. The new state of Meghalaya was part of
Assam, a sub-state put together in 1970 from the
Garo and United Khasi - Jaintia Hill district. This
unique status was devised during negotiations be-
tween New Delhi and the moderate All Party Hill
Leaders Conference, which represents tribes in the
region. The Tibeto-Burmans who dominate Meghalaya
had long resented domination by Hindu plainsmen from
the central Brahmaputra Valley, but New Delhi was
reluctant to risk creating an unviable economic unit
in an area adjacent to East Pakistan. In approach-
ing state elections the Ruling Congress Party will
try to increase its minimal representation in the
assembly, but the popularity of the All Party Hill
Leaders Conference, which led the area to statehood,
remains high.
12. Meghalaya's mountainous terrain, the scar-
city of transport and communication facilities, and
lack of industry make it almost totally dependent
on New Delhi for development resources. Administra-
tive talent is extremely limited, though literacy is
relatively high among the predominant Khasi and Garo
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tribesmen. The state is thought to have substantial
limestone and coal deposits, and its southern slopes
have a considerable hydroelectric potential which
Bangladesh could eventually use. The former capital
of Assam, Shillong, is located in Meghalaya, but New
Delhi has promised to help finance a new headquarters
for Assam, probably at Gauhati in the Brahmaputra
Valley, within three years.
Mizoram: "Land of the Hillmen"
13. The Mizo Hills, formerly Assam's largest
district, have become a federally administered union
territory named Mizoram. A tongue-shaped salient,
wedged between Burma and Bangladesh, it is dominated
by the Mizo tribes whose ancestors migrated from the
Chin Hills of Burma. The British took over the area
in the latter part of the 19th century, but denied
access to it by any but British officials ar.d Chris-
tian missionaries. One result is that today almost
all the Mizos are Christians.
14. After Indian independence, the Mi zos gen-
erally acknowledged their inclusion in the Indian
Union and cooperated by electing representatives to
the Assam legislature. Nonetheless, decades of iso-
lation and the lack of cultural, ethnic, and lin-
guistic affinity with the rest of India, as well as
an increasing disenchantment with control by the gov-
ernment of Assam, sowed the seeds of a secessionist
movement in the early 1960s.
15. New Delhi's willingness in 1962 to meet
the demands of neighboring Naga tribals for their
own state encouraged the Mizos to launch an armed
revolt in March 1966. The rebels formed the Mizo
National Front and proclaimed complete independence
as their objective. Mizo guerrillas attacked major
administrative centars in the district, and Indian
trcops had to be sent into the area. Up to 20 , 000
Indian soldiers have been tied down with policing
duties there ever since. The government moved loyal
tribesmen from border areas into "protected villages"
so that they would be free from guerrilla demands
for food, shelter, and money. The rebels, however,
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CON]:' IDENTIAL
were able to acquire small arms and training in East
Pakistan, and frequently sought sanctuary in the
Chittagong Hill Tracts, where rebel "president"
Laldenga established a base.
A four-month amnesty was declared, and
rebels who surrendered during this period were to be
pardoned, given a small cash grant, and receive a
reward for serviceable arms and ammunition. The re-
sponse was not as large as New Delhi hoped, though
reportedly the offer did attract some 13 Mizo lead-
ers and more than 300 followers. Last month New
Delhi extended the amnesty for two months and liber-
alized the terms.
1.7. As a result of Mizoram's upgraded status,
its district council--which was subordinate to the
Assam Government--will be replaced by an elected
assembly and a council of ministers. Members of the
Ruling Congress, which dominated the district coun-
cil, probably will continue to prevail over the mod-
erate Mizo Union Party.
Arunachal Pradesh: "Land of the Rising Sun"
18. The Indian constitution prescribes vari-
ous protections and safeguards for tribal communi-
ties to promote their educational and economic in-
terests. In addition, government spending for roads,
schools, and clinics in tribal areas has been rela-
tively high. In no other part of the nation has New
Delhi spent so much money, on a per capita basis, as
in Arunachal Pradesh. The area has also presented
the central government with the most complex socio-
logical and topographical problems in implementing
development programs.
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19. Twenty-five tribes possessing wide.Ly diver-
gent languages and cultures occupy this sparsely pop-
ulated 31,000-square-mile territory. It is composed
of five frontier divisions, most of which are heavily
forested and mountainous. The annual rainfall is
near the highest in the world. Annual flooding
caused by the monsoon and melting Himalayan snow ham-
pers communication and inhibits efforts to replace
inefficient slash-and-burn cultivation with a perma-
nent system more promising of self-sufficiency.
The China Problem
20. Arunachal Pradesh was briefly thrust into
international prominence when it became the major
theater on the eastern front in the 1962 Sino-In-
dian border war. India is still extremely sensi-
tive about this territory, since Peking has never
renounced earlier claims to most of it. In addi-
tion it contains an important trans-Himalayan route
from India to Lhasa, Tibet.
Developmental Efforts
21. Despite considerable tribal diversity,
inter-tribal and village warfare is not as bad as
it once was, and New Delhi has been concentrating
on organizing a development program. One of the
main difficulties has been in recruiting qualified
Indian civil servants willing to accept assignments
in this forbidding area.
22. The Indian Government is expected to con-
tinue fostering steps toward elected local govern-
ment and gradually to diminish the powers of cen-
trally appointed political officers. For the near
future, however, it is unlikely that there will be
a significant modification of the policy, begun by
the British in about 1875, of placing the area off-
limits to most outsiders.
Nagaland: A Reluctant Neighbor
23. The strongest opposition to the reorgani-
zation came from Nagaland, though it alone in the
area was virtually unaffected. The state govern-
ment at Kohima resisted New Delhi's proposal for a
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Northeast Council and was largely responsible for
making it an advisory body on security and economic
matters rather than an executive body. Even so,
Nagaland has not yet agreed to participate in coun-
cil meetings. Naga tribesmen fought vigorously for
greater autonomy, and even those who accepted state-
hood when it was granted in 1961 have been extremely
wary of encroachments on their prerogatives.
Naga Rebellion
24. Until recently, Naya.land constituted In-
dia's most difficult problem in the northeast, de-
spite large grants of economic assistance and the
existence of a greater degree of autonomy than had
been accorded most Indian states. The problem bas-
ically stemmed from the Nagas' determination not
to be absorbed culturally, economically, or politi-
cally into a nation they felt was totally alien to
them. Protestant missionaries have been so active
that Nagaland is the only Indian state which has a
Christian majority and English as the predominant
language. The British never asserted full author-
ity over the Nagas and after independence, Naga
leaders headed by Angami A. Phizo claimed that In-
dia had no legal basis for taking over the region.
New Delhi negotiated an uneasy compromise with Naga
leaders in 1962, but this was rejected by militants
who resorted to civil disobedience. In 1964 the
rebels reluctantly agreed to a temporary cease-
fire--which has been repeatedly extended in the
succeeding years. Although intermittent talks be-
tween New Delhi and the insurgents took place in
the mid-1960s, no final agreement has ever been
reached. And there is no indication today that
New Delhi intends to reopen negotiations as long
as a rebel force of about 2,000 continues to de-
mand independence.
Improved Situation
25. India's hard-line policy toward the reb-
els and its generally satisfactory relationship
with the moderate Nagas who dominate the state
government appear to be paying off. Last Septem-
ber, New Delhi withdrew some of its army units and
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reassigned them to the East Pakistan border, reflect-
ing a more relaxed attitude toward the insurgent
threat as woll as growing confidence in the state
government. Earlier that month three by-election
victories for the pro-India Naga National Organiza-
tion, which holds a majority in the state assembly,
had strengthened the hand of Chief Minister. Hokishe
Sema. (There is no Ruling Corgrr-ss Party in Naga-
land.) The opposition United Front of Nagaland,
however, probably has picked up support from rebels
who lost their East Pakistan sanctuary and from
those who are dissatisfied with New Delhi's han-
dling of such issues as the protracted border dis-
pute with Assam and the granting of statehood to
Manipur, which is the homeland of three Naga tribes.
Some elements of the Naga National Organization
favor the resumption of talks between New Delhi
and the Naga National Council, the political wing
of the underground Nagas, in order to reach a final
settlement nd bring to conclusion the insurgents'
protracted, disruptive, and seemingly futile strug-
gle for independence. In any case, the state admin-
istration has extended its control into the remote
hills where rebel support is strongest.
Waning Rebel Fortunes
26. Rebel leader Phizo, now 67, has been in
exile in London since 1960 and is seeking a visa
to come to New York to present his case for an in-
dependent Nagaland before a UN subcommittee on
the protection of minorities. During the hostili-
ties in Bangladesh last year, Phizo reportedly
called on his followers to step up their activities
in Nagaland and Manipur in order to tie down Indian
forces there. Though Phizo is probably still re-
vered by many Nagas, his influence will continue
to decline so long as he is absent from the scene.
27. The rebels have long suffered from divi-
sions within their ranks, and in 1967 a major split
occurred. Tribal enmities were a major factor,
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though ostensibly the issue was whether to seek ne-
gotiations with New Delhi or revert to ell-out guer-
rilla warfare. Most of the moderates come from cen-
tral Nagaland and oppose the more militant Phizo
adherents from southern Nagaland who favor seeking
Communist Chinese assistance.
29. With the conclusion of hostilities in
Bangladesh, some Indian troops may be reassigned
to Nagaland. In early November, Chief Minister
Sema claimed that some of the insurgents were tak-
ing advantage of the troop withdrawal in order to
conscript more tribesmen for the rebel army and
were forcibly collecting rations and taxes from
some villages. New Delhi expects, however, that
the emergence of a friendly Bangladesh will inhibit
Naga rebels, who, like the Mizoe, used East Paki-
stan as a refuge. After the fall of Dacca in De-
cember, four Naga underground leaders--including
General Thinouselie, commander in chief of the army--
surrendered to Indian forces.
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Tripura: Suffering with Bangladesh
30. The newly created state of Tripura claims
to be the oldest of all the former princely states
in India. Indian historians claim Tripura was ruled
for an unbroken 1,300 years by maharajas who success-
fully managed -to evade British attempts at annexation.
It acceded to the Indian Union in 1949 and in 1956
became a union territory.
31. Tripura 13 surrounded by Bangladesh on
three sides, and the inundation of Bengali refugees
last year nearly doubled the state's 1.6 million
population. The strain on the Tripura Government
was alleviated somewhat by the imposition of Presi-
dent's Rule on 1 November. The factionalized Rul-
ing Congress faces stiff opposition from the Marxist
Communist Party in the March electoral contest, but
the exodus of most of the Bangladesh refugees should
enhance the former's prospects at the polls.
Manipur: Upgraded
32. New elections will bring to an end almost
two and a half years of President's Rule in Manipur.
In September 1969, defections from the then-united
Congress Party led to the fall. of the legislative
assembly, but the Ruling Congress is not expected
to face much of a challenge in the coming voting and
will most likely control the new assembly. Nearly
one third o' the population of Manipur is tribal,
and the hill areas where most of them live will be
divided into autonomous districts, each with an
elected district council to deal with local matters.
33. New Delhi's decision to permit elections
reflects its general satisfaction with the improved
political and security situation in these almost
inaccessible hills. Cooperation between the state's
Kuki tribesmen and neighboring Mizo rebels who prom-
ised the Kukis an autonomous district in the Mizos'
projected independent state led to some unrest, but
this has cooled. According to Indian press reports,
the surrender last fall of 38 Kukis brought this
sort of armed resistance to an end.
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34. Statehood should help lay to rest the con-
flict between the Kukis and Nagas who inhc,bit the
sections of northern and eastern Manipur that Naga
insurgents had envisaged as part of an independent
Nagaland. Last summer the "Naga Integr..:tion Com-
mittee" intensified demands for united Naga-inhab-
ited areas, but it was unable to prevent, or even
delay, realization of Manipur statehood.
The Outlook is Cloudy
35. In ordering a blanket reorganization of
the northeast, New Delhi came a long way from its
earlier view that a large gaggle of autonomous
tribal states would undermine the security of the
region, touch off separatist tendencies elsewhere
in India and, perhaps, begin a process that could
lead to the disintegration of the Indian Union.
New Delhi's apprehension has apparently abated as
Prime Minister Gandhi moves into her seventh year
in office and her government continues to grow in
confidence and strength. The government has finally
acted on the premise that, because of the complex
ethnic composition of the population in the north-
east, fractionalization is inevitable. It saw
pressures for autonomy accelerate as various groups
became politicized and witnessed the realization
of their neighbors' aspirations. As a result, New
Delhi finally concluded it could only concede in-
creased civil authority and control over local mat-
ters while retaining control over the use of armed
forces to maintain internal security (despite the
lack of constitutional authority to do so in some
instances) and the distribution of crucial economic
assistance.
36. To its credit New Delhi has sincerely
tried to protect tribal minorities from exploita-
tion by outsiders and to preserve local cultures.
Christian tribes and other groups share little in
common with Hindus and Muslims in the rest of In-
dia and appear to prefer to maintain their own dis-
tinctive identity.
37. The problems of the northeast are far from
solved. Small groups of mutually antagonistic
tribesmen--particularly in Nagaland, Mizoram, and
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Assam will very likely go right on hassling one
another and harassing moderate local governments.
Extremist elements such as the Naxalites from West
Bengal can be expected to exploit tribal unrest
and urgc rebellion. The proximity of Communist
China underlies India's concern over the northeast,
any., the fear of possible Chinese aggression will
long remain an Indian obsession.
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