THE PEOPLE'S LIBERATION ARMY AT THE CROSSROADS

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CIA-RDP85T00875R001100130103-8
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RIPPUB
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S
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30
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December 21, 2016
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November 18, 2008
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103
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October 10, 1972
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IM
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Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Secret DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE CT Intelligence Memorandum The People's; Liberation Army at the Crossroc.ds Secret 73 10 October 1972 No. 2075/72 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 ?5X1 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875R001100130103-8 S C`,R FT' CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Directorate of intelligence 10 October 1972 INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM The People's Liberation'Army at the Crossroads Ever since the founding of they People's Republic of China in 1949, the Chinese Communists have been attempting to reconcile the revolutionary legacy of a guerrilla arm-- with the requirements of national defense in the nuclear aae. This split in personality was underscored in 1965 when China abruptly abolished ranks in its armed forces only a few months after successfully detonating its first atomic bomb. The purge of Defense Minister Lin Piao, Mao Tse-tung's heir designate, in September 1971 ended a 12-year period of increased political activity by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) during which it became deeply involved in the turmoil, created by the Cultural Revolution. Since Liri's demise, the Peking regime seems to have been trying to reduce the army's participation in political affairs and to redirect it toward a more conventional military rule. It is clear, however, that proponents of continued heavy military participation in economic and governmental affairs are not giving ground willingly, and tensions over the PLA's proper po- litical role remain high. Note: This memorandum was prepared by the Office of Current InteZZigenee and coordinated within CIA. Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875R001100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Lin Piao and the Army Lin Piao became defense minister in September 1959, following the dismissal of Marshal Peng Te- huai, with a mandate from Mao to repoliticize China's armed forces. Under Lin's guidance, the armed forces--known collectively as the People's Libera- tion Army--became the model for political emulation throughout the country. The eminence of the army reached its peak during the Cultural Revolution when the PLA, ordered by Mao to "support the left," supplanted the shattered civilian party structure and, as the sole remaining national administrative hierarchy, was obliged to run the country. Ironically, despite their years of political indoctrination, most of the officers who were thrust into governing posi- tions sided with moderate, not Lin's leftist, ele- ments, and the PLA proved to be one of the major forces in undermining Mao's "Great Proletarian Cul- tural Revolution." With Lin's removal, the high- water mark of army involvement in civil political affairs passed. The PLA now is clearly in a state of transition. A new set of priorities is being forged, with more emphasis on military tasks and less on political and economic pursuits. During the Cultural Revolution, the PLA's combat readiness suffered because of its heavy involvement in civil affairs. Efforts to de- termine the extent of the army's continuing politi- cal involvement are hampered by the significant overlap between the party and military hierarchies, particularly in the countryside. For exaitiple, orders flowing from Peking through party channels to the provinces are implemented by men who are at once party leaders and military cadres. This ambiguity will remain until the party-army cadres drop their military titles or are replaced by civilians. The purge of Lin Piao was accompanied by the removal of over half of the PLA high command, in- cluding the chief of staff and the heads of the SECRET Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875R001100130103-8 Al ,IZ FT air force, the logistics arm, and the political commissar of the navy. Although these top leaders have not yet been replaced, the PLA probably re- mains the most powerful of the three major hier- archies of political power in China--the party, the state, and the military. This is not to say that the army has escaped the divisive factionalism that virtually destroyed the party and crippled the gov- ernment administration. The same strong and per- sistent disagreements over policy and personnel issues that rend the party cut across the military establishment too. Thus, the intensity of the personal conflicts generated by the Cultural Revolu- tion and the depth of distrust among the prominent participants have combined to delay the resolution of questions concerning the PLA's future politico- military role. Whatever else happens, it seems safe to assume that as long as Mao, the architect of the politicization of the PLA remains on the scene, political activity will remain an important, al- though certainly not the dominant, part of the army's mission. The Impact of the Lin Piao Affair Chinese Communist government spokesmen have officially affirmed the story that Lin attempted an armed coup against Mao and then died in an air- craft crash while fleeing to the Soviet Union. This story repeats the essentials of the explana- tion of Lin's downfall circulated by the regime throughout China beginning in October 1971. Since then, t.ie campaign to discredit Lin has gone through two major stages, and there are indications that a third and perhaps final stage has recently been launched. Soon after the affair, some documents related to it were issued by the central committee. But the most detailed exposition of Lin's alleged activities was presented in documents released during the second phase. SECRET Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875R001100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 From the point of view of the military estab- lishment, the most damning charges leveled against Lin were that, with the assistance of various cen- tral and provincial military officers--most of them reportedly from the air force--he plotted an armed coup that had led to several assassination attempts against Mao and other top leaders in Peking. The central military leaders implicated in the plot were quickly removed, and the PLA was placed under a cloud of suspicion. For a month, virtually all air force flight activity ceased, and normal activity did not resume for at least another month. During this hiatus, a thorough investigation of a number of air force officers was probably cond1xcted. Pew leaders of the other services appeared in public, and a strident propaganda campaign was launched calling for the army to place itself under firm party control. In the New Year's editorial, the slogan "the PLA must learn from the people of the whole country" was added to the old refrain that "the whole country should learn from the PLA"--a line that was symptomatic of the army's heightened prestige under Lin in the 1960s. A mixture of old veterans and second echelon officers began to perform the public, and presumably the actual, duties of their departed colleagues. The milita::y's status remained uncertain until 1 August, Army Day, when the regime felt obliged-- and confident enough--to issue an authoritative joint editorial that absolved the PLA of any lingering guilt-by-association with the Lin Piao affair. Stressing that the army was united both internally and with the peopla, the editorial gave the military its cleanest bill of political health in a year. This was the first major holiday cele- brated in traditional style since Lin's downfall, which suggested that the dust was beginning to settle in Peking. The editorial skirted most of the important issues, however, including the army's future political role, indicating that political unity within the regime had not yet been achieved. Perhaps what was most significant about Army Day was what did not happen. Replacements were not named to the high-level military positions vacated Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 si crRrT in September, despite rumors that Yeh Chien-ying, who currently functions as de facto defense minister, would be named to that post. Nevertheless, several military veterans who fell during the Cultural Revo- lution were included in the long list of leaders attending the banquet on the eve of Army Day. No- table among them was the former Wuhan Military Re- gion commander, Chen Tsai-tao, who had openly de- fied Maoist authority during the "Wuhan Incident" in July 1967. Thus, although there hrive been some signs of forward movement in reorganizing the mili- tary establishment and reasserting civilian party control, progress toward redefining the PLA's po- litical status has been, and will probably continue to be, slow. The most significant central military figures who have dropped from sight following Lin's removal are listed in Table I. The high-ranking military purgees, Group At include five politburo members-- Lin Piao, Huang Yung-sheng, Wu Fa-hsien, Li Tso- peng, and Chiu Hui-?tso--all of whom stand accused of colluding to overthrow Mao. Based on their factional alignments during the Cultural Revolu- tion, the five make an unlikely team; Huang, com- mander of the Canton Military Region until early 1968, strongly supported conservative forces in South China; the attacks against him by the radical Red Guards were so vigorous that only the personal intervention of Premier Chou, not his direct su- perior, Defense Minister Liri Piao, ensured Huang's political survival at the time. Lin appeared to favor the radical forces and may well have been one of the leaders of the ultraleftist May 16 Group--as some regime documents now charge. Wu Fa-hsien and Li Tso-peng were clearly associated with leftist elements. But the political position of Chiu Hui-tso is a good deal more ambiguous; he may have been in the conservative camp. The politi- cal cowolexions of othsar missing PLA leaders also vary widely. Thus, at first glance, it is difficult to ac- cept the regime's version of the coup plot. It has been sever%tl years since the Cultural Revolution, however, and the general left-right split in the Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 TABLE I (continued) Last Public Appearance Hsiao Chien-fel General Staff Department May 71 Wei Tung-t'ai Member PLA Headquarters May 71 Li Fu-tse Member PLA Headquarters Jul 71 Wang Ping-chang National Defense Scientific and Jul 71 Technological Commission Kuei Shao-pin PLA Navy May 71 Liu Chin-ping PLA Air Force May 71 Lo Yuan-fu PLA Air Force Jul 71 Ho Chen-ya PLA Air Force Jul 71 Liao Kuan-Hsicn PLA Air Force Jun 71 Kuo Chao PLA Artillery Sep 71 Yen Chia-an Second Artillery May 71 Yu Ching-shan Possible Second Artillery Sep 71 Wang T'ing Member PLA Headquarters Jul 71 Hsiao Ch'un-hsien Possible Failway Engineer Corps Sep 71 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 CENTRAL MILITARY OFFICERS WHO HAVE FAILED TO APPEAR IN PUBLIC SINCE THE LIN PIAO PURGE ? Lin Piao ? Huang Yung-sheng ? Wu Fa-hsien ? Li Tso-peng ? Chiu Hui-tso ^ Yen Chung-chuan GROUP B Ch'en P'ang Wang Hsi-k'o Tai Chin-ch'uan Yen Chun ^ Chang Hsiu-chuan Ts'eng Kuo?hua T'an Chia-shu Liu Chin-hsuan Wang Tzu-feng Lo Shun-ch'u Li Chi?*'ai Last Public Appearance Minister of Defense, heir-designate 3 Jun 71 Chief of Staff PLA 10 Sep 71 Deputy Chief of Staff PLA, Air 10 Sep 71 Force Commander Deputy Chief of Staff PLA, Navy 9 Sep 71 1st Political Commissar Deputy Chief of Staff PLA, Director 24 Sep 71 General Rear Services Dept. Deputy Chief of Staff PLA 28 Sep 71 Deputy Director, General hear yep 71 Services Department Deputy Director, General Rear Sep 71 Services Department Deputy Director, General Rear Jun 71 Services Department Deputy Director, General Rear Jul 71 Services Department Deputy Political Commissar, Navy May 71 Deputy Commander, Air Force May 71 Deputy Commander, Air Force Jul 71 Deputy Commander, Railway Dec 71 Engineer Corps Deputy Political Commissar, Peking May '71 Military Region Vice-chairman, National Defense May 71 Scientific and Technological Commission Appeared in Peking in March 1972, al- though I isting suggests that he no longer retains his previous title of Deputy Com- mander, Air Force. ? Politburo Member ^ Central Committee Member Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875R001100130103-8 SECRET PLA at that time may have been sup'rseded by new alliances. While the PLA was running the country, army men began to bear the brunt of the inevitable criticism for mistakes in policy, and this could have drawn the military leaders closer together. A Central Committee document endorsed by Mao and circulated throughout China in the summer of 1971 contained a sharp and detailed criticism of the army's political activities in the Canton Military Region. The choice of this military region must have been a source of personal embarrassment to Huang Yung-sheng, but this was not the major reason for issuing the document. It was clearly meant to be a warning to other regions and to other military leaders in general. Several of the missing PLA leaders; including Huana, apparently were already in some political trouble in the fall of 1970, when they were reportedly required to make a self- criticism at a central committee plenum. Opposi- tion to the foreign policy initiatives toward the US may also have developed within the PLA high command; at least some army figures may have argued that any .nitiatives toward Washington must be balanced by a matching improvement of relations with Moscow, a position the regime attributes to Lin. These and other less visible issues--such as a purported but uncorroborated shift in priorities away from advanced weapons and other defense spend- ing in the fourth Five-Year Plan (1971-75)--could nave prompted a change of alliances among members of the politburo to conform with the picture pre- sented in the documents the regime is now circulating. Of the 11 next most important missing leaders (Group B), seven are from the air force, navy, or general rear service department. They probably fell as a result of the close connection with their chiefs. When other missing military leaders (Group C) are assessed, it appears that the purge at the center was concentrated at the highest level of the mili- tary establishment and has not significantly reduced the PLA's presence in the government bureaucracy. In the provinces, the impact of the purge of Lin is even less evident, perhaps because it is not yet complete. A large number of provincial military cadres--some of whom may be deputy commanders or Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875R001100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 HIGH RANKING PROVINCIAL MILITARY OFFICERS WHO HAVE FAILED TO APPEAR SINCE THE LIN PURGE Hsu Kuo-chen ?1 Li Shu-mao Ho Lin-chao T'an Kai-yun Wang I ^ Liu Feng ? Liang Hsing-chu Han Tung-shan Hsu Kuo-fu Lin Wei-hsien Min Hsueh-sheng ? (Nang Chia-tao U Wang Wei-kuo U Chen Li-yun E Liu Hsing-yuan Wang Pu Lu Ting-tien Chang Chen-tung Lu Yang Yang Min Cheng Chi-wen Last Public Appearance Deputy Commander, Lanchow MR Oct 71 Deputy Commander, Lanchow MR Jul 71 Deputy Political Commissar, Sep 71 Sinkiang MR Deputy Political Commissar, Sinkiang MR May 71 Tientsin Garrison Commander Sep 71 1st Political Commissar, Wuhan MR Aug 71 Commander, Chengtu MR Oct 71 Deputy Commander, Wuhan MR Jul 71 Deputy Commander, Wuhan MR Jul 71 Deputy Commander, Wuhan MR Jul 71 Deputy Commander, Wuhan MR Jul 71 Commander, Heilungkiang MD Dec 71 Political Commissar, Shanghai Air Jul 71 Force Command; named as plotter in official party documents Air Force leader in Chekiang; named as Jan 72 plotter in official party documents Former Canton MR 1st Political Com- Mar 72 missar; reportedly transferred to Szechwan Province; also reportedly arrested. Commander, Air Force, Canton MR; May 71 named as plotter in official party documents Deputy Political Commissar, Chengtu MR Sep 71 Deputy Commander, Sinkiang MR Aug 71 Deputy Commander, Anhwei MD Sep 71 Political Commissar, Honan MD Aug 71 Deputy Commander, Hunan MD Nov 71 Deputy Commander, Hunan MD Sep 71 ? Politburo Member ^ Central Committee Member Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875R001100130103-8 TABLE II (continued) Last Public Appearance Liu Shan-fu Deputy Commander, Hunan MID Oct 71 Wang Ken-yuan Deputy Commander, Hupeh MD May 71 LI Kuci-hsiu Deputy Political Commissar, Hupeh MD May 71 Chung Ying Deputy Commander, Kirin Jul 71 Huang Yun-ch'ang Deputy Commander, Kirin Jul 71 Wu Chin-feng Deputy Commander, Liaoning Jul 71 T'ang Chien-ju Political Commissar, Shantung May 71 ? T'ien Pao Political Commissar, Tibet MD Aug 71 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875R001100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 "II ell, iJ t"u ~f"n4 1,.011 n. rr+.f Chmnnun dln" and it V.U. u /,ur4 ,rail er J? ti{r"4Vt pro':i e, "A, f l" t"u -w I" d"f rr Still Entrenched in Politics. Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 in equivalent positions-.have been out of sight since 1971, and some of them may have been impli- cated in the Lin affair. But a host of other reasons could explain their absence from view, in- cluding illness, retirement, transfer, or political downgrading unrelated to the purge. A considerable number of army cadres have moved unaccountably into this type of limbo during the last several years. The limited scope of the purge in the provinces in no small measure reflects the army's powerful and continuing role in party an state affairs. Faced with this situation, it is unlikely that civilian party leaders in Peking could have immediately car- ried out as extensive a shake-up of provincial mili- tary leaders as they did at the center. Indeed, the regime has gone to considerable lengths to por- tray the Lin affair as a palace coup, an-1 it appears anxious to assure provincial military figures that a widespread purge is not in the cards. The over- whelming majority of PLA officers in leading posi- tions in the provinces have in fact appeared since Lin wa-- purged and presumably are in good standing. The PLA in Politics Although the political power of the PLA ap- parently has been brought more firmly within the sphere of civilian party control, military men con- tinue to dominate t;ie reconstituted party apparatus in the countryside. The accelerating campaign to return veteran civilian cadres who were purged or demoted during the Cultural Revolution to their former posts has as yet had little effect at the highest levels of provincial party and government leadership. PLA officers still occupy nearly 70 percent of the top positions on the provincial party committees established last year, and they also dominate the provincial "revolutionary com- mittees"--the local government instruments set up during the Cultural Revolution. An example of the power of the military cadres was the disclosure in a radio broadcast from Anhwei Province on 4 September 1971 that, since the spring SECRET Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 41T, c,RF7" of 1970, propaganda teams drawn from regular units had been sent to more than a third of the province's 70 counties to perform "ideological and organizational work"---i.e., party building. These mobile military teams were praised for "ferreting out active counter- revolutionaries" on the local revolutionary commit- tees, strongly implying that the army cadres had authority to eliminate anyone they did not favor or whQ opposed them. Despite periodic campaigns criticizing army cadres for "arrogance and complacency" in their dealings with the masses (i.e., civilian authori- ties) and the almost total reconstruction of the civilian party apparatus, only limited inroads have been made against the power of the military in the countryside. This is primarily because the party committees were often established under the tutelage of armed forces cadres, who ensured that military interests were well represented. There has been a significant change in the media's treatment of the army's role since the Lin Piao affair. Soon after Lin's fall, a number of radio broadcasts and newspaper articles began to stress an old but politically important theme: that the party always controls "the gun," and that army authority must be subordinated to party au- thority, the army's sub-pro- vincial party committees, which--unlike their civilian counterparts--were not decimated during the Cultural Revolution, were then and still are the forums in which decisions are reached and the apparatus through which information and orders flow. Since the leaders of these military party committees are usually also the dominant figures in the counterpart civilian party organization at the local levels, issues tend to be decided within military circles and are presented to the civilian body as faits accomplis. The military has enjoyed a wider latitude in party reconstruction than might have been expected because of continuing weaknesses in the civilian party structure, both in Peking and in tha provinces. SE JKJ '1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 QV r. 11? V 1~ During 1.970-71., when most sub-provincial level party committees were being re-formed, the top leadership in Peking was embroiled in a series of political dis- putes that, while not eliminating central control, reduced the speed and effectiveness with which the central. authorities could move in provincial affairs. While a great deal of attention was devoted to the creation of the provincial party committees, it ap- peared that sub-provincial committees--many of them set up earlier and clearly not under direct central party supervision--operated under a much looser rein. Whether or not the PLA cadres in each province re- ceived detailed and explicit instructions for their party-building task, the military had established itself both as the authority for order and civil administration and as the ultimate arbiter of dis- putes in most rural areas by the time party recon- struction efforts were launched on a broad scale. Since moderate elements had gained the upper hand at the center, most provincial-level party committees came to be dominated by like-minded military officers, and the same pattern probably emerged at the lower levels. Numerous radio broadca:;ts ident!.fying the top party leaders in counties and communes show that, whatever their orientation, military men were heavily represented at these levels. Another major factor in the perpetuation of army control over party affairs in the countryside has been the reluctance on the part of the much- maligned veteran civilian cadres to reassume ad- ministrative and political responsibility. Despite the open criticism by domestic media of the military cadres' lack of technical and administrative com- petence and of their insufficient understanding of local conditions, veteran cadres have been slow to reassert themselves. Harassed by a seemingly un- ending series of political rectification campaigns, civilian cadres have tended to let the soldiers run the show and receive the inevitable criticism from higher authorities. This probably has made life superficially easier for many civilians over the past few years, but the regime's current drive "boldly" to re-employ veteran cadres and reassert party control over the army is ending this relative isolation from responsibility. Nevertheless, in Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 SECRET view of the unsettled leadership situation in Peking and the legacy of past criticism, both civilian and military cadres will tend to move slowly and cau- tiously, and the military officers on provincial and sub-provincial party committees will not abruptly relinquish their important role. Perhaps in recognition of the realities of po- litical power in the provinces, one recent theme of domestic propaganda has been the advocacy, of "col- lective leadership" under the over-a,.l authority of the civilian party committee. The army has contin- ually been warned to observe strict discipline and obey orders, and in numerous instances military officers and local civilian cadres have worked to- gether harmoniously. A number of articles published since the Lin purge stress the wisdom of a collective in which civilian cadres hold the majority. This is an inferential criticism of arbitrary rule by the leading figure on a given comrAittee, who is usually a PLA cadre. The actual impact of this call fnr diluting army control appears, at best, to be mixed. The exhortations may even have prompted a counterat- tack by advocates of continued military dominance of civil affairs. During most of last year, army cadres were portrayed in propaganda as providing political- ideological guidance, but relying on civilian cadres for advice on technical points and local conditions. Early this year, however, the propaganda line changed, and PLA cadres were urged to "learn techniques and methods in production and management" to enhance "their ability to lead production." This new theme appears to be at cross purposes with the campaign for the "bold" reemployment of veteran cadres and is probably a reflection of a continuing disagreement vithin the central leadership over the extent of future army participation in civil affairs. It is clear that regular troop units have been almost totally withdrawn from the myriad order-keeping duties they acquired as a result of the breakdown during the Cultural Revolution. But it is also true that military men continue to play an important po- litical role through continuing "support-the-left" activities. PLA participation has been scaled down Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 SECRET in some schools, factories, and communes and com- pletely eliminated in others, but the military presence apparently is still strong in the remain- der. No geographic patterns in the spotty picture have yet emerged; In addition, domestic media articles castigating unnamed class enemies for the "erroneous" view that left-support work is not a long-term task have continued to appear, and the authoritative Army Day joint editorial has praised personnel engaged in such work. The debate over the army's involvement in civil political affairs has been on for some time. The late Edgar Snow, in a magazine article published in May 1971, quoted Chou En-lai as saying that the PLA officers assigned to civilian jobs had "become gov- ernment workers and are no longer in charge of army work." Chou's remarks doubtless reflected in part Peking's sensitivity to the charge by foreign ob- servers that the army was runninc he country, but they also suggest that he and other civilian moder- ates want to reduce the army's participation in civil affairs. Despite persistent rumors to the contrary, the military was still heavil involved in left-support tasks. The reason for the slow pace of disengagement may not be so much a lack of agreement on whether to phase the army out of civil affairs duties,as it is a question of timing. Many moderate troop com- manders, who were thrust into leading civil party positions as a result of the Cultural Revolution, are probably more than willing to return to fLill- time military duties. Most army officers were ill- equipped to handle the varied civil administrative and economic tasks for which they became responsible, and as a result they became the targets of increas- ingly harsh and explicit criticism for their errors -11- SECRET Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875R001100130103-8 in policy implementation. While such criticism has been relatively muted this year, the PLA's im- age of omnipotence that developed under Lin Piao in the 1960s is still tarnished, and many officers are probably anxious to get off the griddle. A large part of the problem is finding suit- able civilian replacements. Peking's current cam- paign to return veteran cadres, many of whom were removed during the Cultural Revolution, to their former posts has been confined almost completely to the sub-provincial level. It appears that many of the old provincial-level leaders, while accept- able to the moderates, are still too controversial for rehabilitation, probably because of opposition by leftist elements in Peking. On the other hand, the moderates are probably opposed to the large- scale infusion of new blood, and this may have caused a virtual stalemate. The question of re- placements for army men on provincial party com- mittees is also complicated by the difficult com- promises that had to be made in order to form the committees. This process had not begun to bear fruit until two years after the formation of the last revolutionary committees, which were them- selves the products of acrimonious compromise. The persistence of political uncertainty in Peking may be influencing the return to civilian party control of the countryside in another way. Some military cadres who would prefer to relinquish their military titles in favor of their civilian party posts may be reluctant to move until the political situation becomes more stable. The mem- ory of what happened to their predecessors during the Cultural Revolution may be fresh enough in the minds of these soldiers to counsel caution. Finally, there are undoubtedly some officers who have come to enjoy their political power and are lobbying to maintain both their military and party posit-lons. As in the countryside, PLA cadres continue to occupy a large number of posts in the central gov- ernment hierarchy. Six of the nine ministers ap- pointed during 1971 were army men, and no signifi- cant reduction of military personnel in the bureauc- racy can be detected as a result of the Lin purge-- although it perhaps is also significant that only shcxr,?[ Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875R001100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 SECRET onr: new minister has been identified since last September. Ministers and other high-level bureau- crats in the government who have been drawn from the army have relinquished their mil:,'.tary duties-- a very different situation from that obtaining in the provinces, where leading members of revolution- ary and party committees remain part of the mili- tary hierarchy and frequently command troops. The Training Issue Although Peking has been unable to reach a decision on the army's left-support tasks, domestic media since the crisis of September 1971 have indi- cated a clear change in the relationship between PLA political activity and military training. Th suggests that the army's combat readiness, which deteriorated during the Cultural Revolution, was an issue in the Lin Piao affair. The increasing public prominence since Lin's fall of several high- ranking military veterans known for their emphasis on military professionalism is consistent with this shift. The Army Day editorial balanced a call for improved military training with praise for "three support and two military work"--the program that caused training to lapse in the first place--in- dicating that this change hLs not yet superseded the army's involvement in civil political affairs. The pressure for such a shift will, however, in- crease as more time is devoted to training. The prevalent theme in early and mid-1971 was that political considerations took precedence over military affairs--or, as Lin had put it, being "good" in politics (the "first good") was a pre- requisit(i to success in the other three of the "four goods" he had enunciated in 1961 (work style, military training, and management of living). It is likely that conservative troop commanders, many of whose units were widely scattered during the Cultural Revolution because of their civil polit- ical duties, were impatient to restore a high de- gree of combat readiness. Despite evidence of increased training and the China-wide war prepara- tions campaign following the Sino-Soviet border Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 zo. Training Advances. Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 e1r D Vrr clashes in 1969, the emphasis in early 1971 in do- mestic media--and probably in the armed forces as well--still was heavily weighted in favor of polit- ical considerations. Numerous examples were pub- licized of troops studying political texts before engaging in field training, or even interrupting their field training to study a newly released Pe- king editorial. These articles repeatedly criti- cized the view that expanded civil affairs duties would adversely affect military training, and stressed -L.hat supporting industry was an important factor in carrying out Chairman Mao's army-build- ing program. The vigor and persistence of these articles suggested that there were powerful people within the defense establishment--and possibly within the civilian party hierarchy as well--who were dissatisfied with the state of combat readiness. To be sure, the debate was not entirely one-sided. In a thinly veiled call to strengthen military training, a broadcast from Anhwei on 5 June 1971 recalled that the Paris Commune was overwhelmed by superior armed force and warned that "success or failure in military battles determines the survival or destruction of political power." But the pendulum did not finally swing to- ward those who advocated increased military pre- paredness until mid-September, at the height of the Lin purge. A Peking domestic radiobroadcast on 13 September told of a company commander who interrupted political study to launch a program to improve military training--a scenario that was the exact reverse of many earlier articles. More- over, when one of the soldiers in this hypotheti- cal company questioned the move on political gro"nds, the commander was said to have responded that "to carry out military training to prepare against a war of aggression and to defend the socialist mother- land is politics in itself"--a clear contradiction of Lin Piao's "four goods." Finally, the broadcast presented a negative example in the form of a com- munications squad that spent so much time working SEURFT Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 oU,f'1u err in a pig sty that its members were substandard in communications skill. This "contradiction" was said to h&,ve been resolved by spending more time on military training and less on production. The example of the company that had increased its military training was echoed almost immediately in the PLA newspaper, Liberation Army Daily--a fur- ther indication of support by powerful elements within the military for the new line. Published on 17 September, the article attacked unnamed comrad s who held the erroneous idea that training could be ignored in deference to political or production assignments, adding that "we cannot wait for the fighting to begin before studying military affairs." This new emphasis on upgradir,. military training has been subsequently reaffirmed, and "swindlers like Liu Shao-chi"--the current term for Lin Piao and his allies--are routinely condemned for setting politics against military affairs. Domestic media now treat political affairs and military training as complementary and mutually supporting pursuits. The New Leadership Since the purge in September 1971, a number of second-echelon military leaders Lave appeared regu- lary and have been performing the public--and pre- sumably the other--duties of their former superiors. (See Table 1V). At the same time, several veteran PLA officers have either re-emerged from long periods of relztive obscurity or have become increasingly prominent. But the question of appoi:;:tments to top- ranking vacancies in the military hierarchy appears to be closely related to other unresolved policy and personnel questions, and the regime has stopped short of filling these vacancies. The most proi:;inent of the military leaders who have improved their public and probably their real political positions are three of China's "old mar- shals"--Yeh Chien-ying, Hsu Hsiang-chien and Nieh Jung-chien. Yeh, already a powerful party figure in military and foreign affairs, now functions as 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 ? Minister of Defense ? PLA Chief of Staff ^ Deputy Chief of Staff Deputy Chief of Staff ^ Deputy Chief of Staff ^ Deputy Chief of Staff ^ Deputy Chief of Staff Deputy Chief of Staff ? Director General Politi- cal Department ^ Deputy Director GPD Deputy Director GPD ? Deputy Chief of Staff, Director General Rear Services CURRENT PLA LEADERSHIP September 1971 Huang Yung-sheng Chang Tsai-chien Chen Chi-te Peng Shao-hu i Wang Hsin-ting Yen Chung-chuan Hsiang Chung-hua, named June 1972 Li Te-sheng September 1972 Yeh Chien-ying-de facto; but no rcllacement an- nounced. vacant appeals regularly Last public appearance was 29 March 72, may be in trcuble. appears regularly appears regularly appears regularly appears regularly appears regularly Huang Chih-yung Tien Wei-hsin Chiu Hui-tso ^ Political Commissar GRS Chang Chih-ming ^ Deputy Director G RS (,hang Tien-yun ^Deputy Director GRS Chang Ling-pin ? Deputy Chief of Staff Wu Fa-hsien Air Force Commander ^Air Force Political Commissar ^Air Force Deputy Commander ^Air Force Deputy Commander ^Air Force Deputy Commander Wang Hui-chiu Tseng Kuo-hua Kuang Jen-nung ?Politburo Member ^Central Committee Member appears regularly appears regularly vacant appears regularly appears regularly appears regularly vacant appears regularly appears regularly appears regularly appears regularly Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100130103-8 Approved For Release 2008/11/18: CIA-RDP85T00875R001100130103-8 N Navy Commander ? Deputy Chief of Staff, Navy 1st Political Commissar Navy Deputy Commander Navy Deputy Commander Navy Deputy Political Commissar ^ Navy Deputy Political Commissar PLA Armor Force ^ PLA Artillery Commander PLA Artillery Pol Commiss