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December 20, 2016
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April 4, 2006
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August 25, 1973
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25X1 Approved For Release 2006/05/25 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001100160048-7 Approved For Release 2006/ 5)AI: ItfA=k~'S"Tb0*bF 11l9h60048-?T; ~, r,.?, .. ~ Secret Intelligence Memorandum The Fourth Nonaligned Summit Secret 25 Augus? 119 7 3 No. 1662/73 Approved For Release 2006/05/25: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100160048-7 25X1 Approved For Release 2006/05/25 : CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100160048-7 Approved For Release 2006/05/25 : CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100160048-7 Approved For Release CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Directorate of ..ntelligence 25 August 1973 INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM The Fourth Nonaligned Summit Summary On 2 September, representatives from more than 50 nations will assemble in Algiers. Their purpose Ls to remind the great powers that the nonaligned movement is a viable force not to be forgotten in today's changing world. The movement, however, has lost its original purpose and momentum. A crucial issue the delegates will have to face is what, if any, substantive role nonalignment can play in the 1970s. The Algerian Government has given top priority to the summit for several months and has dispatched numerous special envoys to attract the largest possi- ble attendance. President Boumdeiene believes a suc- cessful conference will enhance his stature and Al- geria's role as a leader among developing nations. The first two days of the meeting will be de- voted to consultation among foreign ministers, at which time questions of seating and most conflicts concerning draft resolutions will be resolved. We expect that Prince Sihanouk's delegation and the Provisional Revolutionary Government of South Viet- nam will be seated. The heads of state will then meet from 5-8 September. Comments and queries on the contents of this publica- tion are welcome. They may be directed to of the Office of Current Intelligence 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2006/05/25 : CIA-RDP85T00875R0011100160048-7 Approved For Release The agenda is broad enough for all participants to accept, and a number of resolutions will be pub- lished. They include: --condemnation of Israel and a statement of support for the Arab cause in the Middle East; --condemnation of the Portuguese, Rhodesian, and South African governments; --a denunciation of US policies in Indochina; --a call for closer economic cooperation among nonaligned states. Despite the varied and often conflicting interests of the participants, the nonaligned nations will prob- ably succeed in drafting a program to present to the UN General Assembly that opens on 18 September. Although the more radical delegations will initiate many of the resolutions, the final results will reflect some com- promise with moderate states as most participants are committed to reaching the widest possible consensus at the conference. Both the US.and the USSR can expect a number of resolutions opposing their interests, but extensive efforts to affect the outcome of these is- sues by either of the major powers would risk exag- gerating the conference's limited significance and impact. Approved For Releo 25X1 Approved For Release 20 - 001100160048-7 Nonalignment at a Crossroad The Summit Conference of Nonaligned Nations in Algiers is an attempt to remind the great powers that the nonaligned movement is a viable force not to be forgotten in today's changing world. Delegates to the conference will search for a community of in- terests to give the appearance of solidarity vis-a-vis the major powers. This will be a difficult task given the paucity of issues of a global character on which the nonaligned nations can still agree. A stepchild of the cold war, the nonaligned movement has lost its original purpose and the momen- tum it achieved in the early 1960s. It is now floun- dering in a sea of changing relationships among the major powers. In the three years since the summit conference in Lusaka, the US and the USSR have moved from confrontation to negotiation on a number of im- portant issues, the People's Republic of China has emerged from isolation to occupy a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, the European Common Market has been expanded, and Japan has become the dominant economic power in Asia. The dividing lines between the power blocs also have been blurred by the Soviet Union's continuing quarrel with China and by Washing- ton's improved relationship with Peking. In this increasingly multi-polar world of detente, a central issue the delegates will have to face is clarifying and redefining the role of nonalignment. The Algiers summit will be the largest gathering of nonaligned nations so far. More than 60 nations have been invited to attend the conference from 2-8 September as full members, and the latest count indi- cates 62 will be represented (See Appendix). Some 20 observers and guests, representing various liberation movements as well as governments, will also be present. The first two days of the meeting will be devoted to consultation among the foreign ministers,.at which time contentious questions of representation and most conflicts on the wording of draft resolutions will be resolved. Prince Sihanouk's delegation (GRUN.K) and the Provisional Revolutionary Government (PRG) of South Vietnam delegation are expected to be seated as full members. The assembled heads of state will then meet from 5-8 September. Approved For Release Approved For Release 20 Algeria's Role Algiers began preparing for the summit a year ago when it was chosen as the conference site at a meeting of nonaligned foreign ministers in Guyana. The Algerian Government has given top priority to the summit for several months and has dispatched numerous special envoys to attract the largest possible attend- ance by heads of state. A large number of ambassadors have been called home for the meeting, and the entire protocol office of the foreign ministry has been reas- signed to assist in the preparations. Residents of the Club des'Pins resort complex, where the meetings will take place, have been evicted so that their homes can be prepared for the delegates. In the end, Algeria's total expenditures for the conference may run as high as $25 million. President Boumediene, who has devoted an enormous amount of time to the preparations, be- lieves Algeria's role as a leader among developing na- tions and his own stature will be greatly enhanced by the summit. As host, Algeria will play a major role in draft- ing resolutions and determining the order in which topics are considered. Boumediene's main objectives include: --a strong resolution on the Middle East situa- tion condemning Israel and focusing attention on the plight of Palestinians; --a resolution calling for increased support of the African liberation movements; --a call for increased economic cooperation and coordination among developing nations to in- crease their political leverage with the great powers--including the use of oil as a political weapon. Although he will press hard for approval of strong planks on these and other issues, Boumediene knows he may have to settle for watered-down versions of some resolutions to avoid open splits at the conference. Approved For Releasel2006/05/25 : CIA-RDP85T00875R00I1100160048-7 Approved For Release On the Middle East question, Boumediene has tried to get various Arab leaders to support a unified Arab initiative for a settlement with Israel in time for presentation to the nonaligned summit. These ef- forts, however, have not generated any real movement. Arab states are seldom able to unite on any action proposal, and the issue of a negotiated settlement with Israel is particularly divisive. Frontline states like Egypt and Syria, moreover, do not consider Algeria an equal party with a major stake in the Middle East dispute. Algeria will play a leading role in seating Si- hanouk's GRUNK and the PRG as full members. The Al- gerians, supported by Arabs and African militants, hope to use the precedent that these delegations were seated at the ministerial meeting in Georgetown last year to avoid discussion and to head off a major accreditation debate. While Laos, Indonesia, and Malaysia walked out over this issue last year, they are unlikely to do so again. Despite the disgruntlement and reservations of some Asian delegates, there is no evidence that Asians plan a major effort to deny seats to these two delega- tions. Non-Asian moderates are clearly unwilling to take a strong stand, and most consider this matter a peripheral issue. Other Participants The motives of those attending the Algiers gathering are as varied as the participants. For Cairo, the summit will be a forum for expounding and gaining further international support for its estab- lished position on how the Middle East conflict should be resolved. Since the US veto of a UN Middle East resolution on 26 July, Cairo has been making an inten- sive effort to develop a strategy for the conference. President Sadat views the meeting as an opportunity to capitalize on the moral victory he believes he won at the UN by portraying the lone US negative vote as an indication of US-Israeli isolation from a world community which supports Egypt. Accordingly, the Egyptians will probably seek adoption of a resolution modeled on the one vetoed by the US. Approved For Releas4 2006/05/25 : CIA-RDP85T008V5R001100160048-7 Approved For Release The Egyptian approach in Algiers will probably be relatively moderate in order to solicit the widest possible support from nations with some standing out- side the Middle East. Cairo used with considerable success just such an approach during the Security Council debate on the Middle East last month. To en- sure endorsement of its position on the Middle East, Egypt will probably resist radical Arab attempts to push through a more inflammatory resolution. In this vein, the Egyptians are likely to work with Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf oil states, to head off any resolution requiring a more active Arab policy regarding the use of oil as a political weapon. For Yugoslavia, the Algiers meeting presents an important opportunity for raising the stock of non- alignment--a keystone of Yugoslav foreign policy--at home and abroad. Tito, who plans to attend, is the only one of the four original supporters of nonalign- ment still alive; the others were Nehru, Sukarno, and Nasir. Many Yugoslavs, because of the inconstancy of the nonaligned movement in recent years (particularly the Soviet friendship treaties with Egypt, India, and Iraq), have come to doubt whether nonalignment has made a significant contribution to the country's se- curity. With the nation on the verge of the Tito succession, the regime wants to dispose of any ambig- uities in general foreign policy guidelines. Belgrade needs a show of unity and strength in Algiers to revitalize nonalignment and thereby enhance Yugoslavia's stature in the coming deliberations of the European Security Conference, Working behind the scenes, Belgrade may try to dampen support for radical initiatives, call for greater cooperation among devel- oping countries, and attempt to counterbalance inevita- ble attempts by some delegations to bait the US while taking it easy on the USSR. On a few issues, like the Panama Canal question, Belgrade may risk US displeasure by failing to oppose an anti-US resolution if there is a positive consensus among attending delegates? Simi- larly, Belgrade will probably restate its strong support for national liberation movements. Approved For Release 2p06/05/25 : CIA-RDP85T00875ROp1100160048-7 Approved For Release 2006/05/25 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001100160048-7 India, by virtue of its historical role in the movement, is committed to attend. New Delhi does not like the strident tone and current trend toward extremism. It would like to see the nonaligned move- ment remain a forum of smaller, less-developed coun- tries that cooperate in self-interest against great power attempts to exert political or economic pressure. The Indians will staunchly oppose any efforts to in- stitutionalize nonalignment; they believe the consul- tative committee at the UN adequately performs this function. India will work to preserve conference unity and to restore the principle of consensus, which in its view means the lowest common denominator upon which participants can agree, in formulating final resolu- tions. India believes the Arab-African majority vio- lated this principle at last year's meeting in Guyana on matters of accreditation and conference venue, and that divisions were produced that have not yet healed. New Delhi is against raising purely regional issues, such as the Middle East and South Africa questions, because it believes they will only further divide the nonaligned nations. If resolutions on zones of peace and economic cooperation are put forth in sufficiently vague language to allow broad interpretation, India will support them. For Indonesia, Asia's other giant neutral, the Algiers summit offers more pitfalls than opportunities. Jakarta sees little value in the nonaligned sessions unless the tendency toward strident political posturing is curbed, and a serious effort is made to get down to business on substantive matters such as economic coop- eration. Indonesia, along with Laos and Malaysia, walked out of the Georgetown meeting last year in pro- test over the accreditation decisions. President Su- harto's concern that the presence of Sihanouk will turn the conference into a widely polarized political forum will result in his staying away, leaving Foreign Minis- ter Malik to be the Indonesian representative. The Black African states will comprise the largest regional grouping in Algiers. The attitudes of the var- ious countries vary. Economic cooperation will be fore- most in the w',-:ds of many moderate Africans. Militant Approved For Release 12006/05/25 : CIA-RDP85T00875FJ001100160048-7 Approved For Release 200 1100160048-7 activists like Tanzania will be out in front on some political questions, especially support for Sihanouk and the PRG. All Africans, regardless of political coloration, are in general agreement on the principle of majority rule in southern Africa. They will in- troduce a resolution censuring the white minority governments and western states that trade with them and calling for increased support for the African liberation movements. Some ten Latin American countries may be in Al- giers. Each has its own reason for attending, but all view their presence as a means of self-expression. As the nations of Latin America move away from the United States politically, nonalignment becomes more attractive. Many of them are leery of both the USSR and the US, and therefore are willing to explore and exploit nonalignment. Cuba and Chile will be the most active Latin American participants. The Cubans intend to orient the proceedings totally against the US. The Cubans will speak out strongly against "North American im- perialism" and probably demand independence for Puerto Rico and the end of US control of the Panama Canal. Although Cuba has had frequent contact in recent months with some of the nonaligned countries to enlist their support, its proclivity for inflam- matory tactics and one-sided attacks against the US may prove counterproductive. Chile will probably focus on big power economic exploitation. President Allende has indicated he is especially interested in measures to combat threats to the sovereignty of states over their own natural resources and to resist economic control by multi- national corporations. Soviet and Chinese Attitudes The Soviets have always been ambivalent about the nonaligned movement because they do not accept that any country can be truly nonaligned. In the early years of the movement, nonaligned resolutions got considerable Soviet propaganda support because they were mainly anti-Western. Now that most under- developed countries tend to view both the US and the USSR with reserve, the Soviets are more wary. Approved For Release12006/05/25 : CIA-RDP85T00875RO01 h 00160048-7 Approved For Release 200 00160048-7 Current Soviet press play on the summit has been sparse; Moscow is unenthusiastic about its prob- able outcome. The Soviets expect to be lumped to- gether with the West when the delegates get around to discussing economic relations between developing and industrialized countries. Moscow takes a dim view of the prospect that many conference participants will accord Prince Sihanouk and his "government" a prominent role. The Soviets would be displeased if their policy of detente with the US comes under, heavy fire. As a result, Soviet propaganda coverage, once the conference gets under way, will be highly selec- tive. China's interest in the Algiers meeting is to secure political influence by portraying itself as a champion of third world economic and political interest.l vis-a-vis the two sunopowers. Peking will be an active lobbyist in Algiers, though it is unlikely to participate in any formal capacity. China does not characterize itself as nonaligned, even though it classifies itself in economic terms as part of the third world. The Chinese will prob- ably use the same tactics that proved successful last year in Guyana. They will closely monitor the meeting and lobby for their views by using personnel of the Chinese Embassy in Algiers. Peking can be expected to follow its established line of denouncing alleged Soviet and US efforts to carve out spheres of economic and political influence. The Chinese probably will support nonaligned endorse- ment of a 200-mile national maritime economic zone, a greater voice for developing countries in inter- national economic and financial affairs, and a resolu- tion supporting the Arab and Palestinian position on the Middle East. As at the meeting in Georgetown, the Chinese will work to ensure the seating of Sihanouk and the PRG. The Agenda In an effort to avoid the divisions that marred the Georgetown foreign ministers' meeting, a broad, loosely worded agenda has been drafted for Algier!~, The major points are: Approved For Release 2pO6/05/25 : CIA-RDP85T00875ROp1100160048-7 --a general review of the international situa- tion and the role of nonalignment; --the coordination of activities of nonaligned countries to strengthen world peace and se- curity; --the economic and social development of non- aligned nations; --measures to promote closer cooperation and coordination among nonaligned states. More narrowly defined issues will be drafted at the final preparatory meeting in Algiers on 29-31 August. A Middle East resolution will be formulated condemning Israel for acquisition of territory by force and reaffirming support for the rights of Palestinians. Such a resolution also is likely to condemn Israeli aggression against international airlines. Portuguese, Rhodesian, and South African policies toward blacks will come under strong at- tack in other resolutions. There also may be some movement toward developing a program of closer eco- nomic and technical cooperation among the nonaligned states. It is unlikely that there will be sufficient support to establish a permanent body or committee to coordinate economic policies. A number of other issues will come up and on some of these there will be sufficient unanimity to pass resolutions. The summit is expected to issue a call for strengthening the UN. Coordination of policies for the future conference on Law of the Sea will be discussed, but there is little likelihood that any agreement of substance will be achieved. Similarly, there will be lengthy discussion of meas- ures to combat threats to permanent sovereignty over natural resources, including the activities of multi- national corporations. Under the headi.r.',g of strengthening international security, there may be calls for the creation of zones of peace in the Mediterranean Sea, the Persian Gulf, Approved For Release 2 - and the Indian Ocean. Measures to intensify efforts for general and complete disarmament will also be discussed. A resolution declaring the peoples of Indochina victims of aggression and condemning US policies in Southeast Asia is inevitable. Beyond the Summit The participants in the end will probably agree on a nonaligned program to present to the UN General Assembly in October. The Algiers summit will be marked more by rhetoric than substantive accomplish- ment, however, and the concept of nonalignment is not likely to regain any of its lost momentum. Major delegations will have to spend an inordinate amount of time beating down extremist resolutions and nego- tiating common ground. The militant Arab-.African minority that dominated the ministerial meeting in Georgetown last year will be especially difficult to control. Most delegations will agree that what the meeting says should reflect a consensus and this will help to moderate the resolutions. The tone of summit declarations will still depend, however, on how forcefully moderate leaders insist that resolu- tions reflect their own positions and whether they are well enough organized to deal with constant pressure from radical delegations. Both the US and the USSR can expect to draw verbal abuse at the summit. At a minimum, the US will be criticized on the Middle East and Indochina and probably the Panama Canal, even if moderate delegations are able to modify some of the more strident language. Extensive efforts by major powers to affect the outcome of the conference, however, would almost certainly be viewed as meddling by Algeria and many other delegations and would risk exaggerating the conference's sig- nificance and impact. The resolutions passed in Algiers will have little lasting impact. The world press will cover the Algiers proceedings, but it is unlikely that its interest in the resolutions will much outlast Approved For Relealse 2006/05/25 : CIA-RDP85T0087PR001100160048-7 Approved For Release 2 the end of the conference. The resolutions will have no binding force, and those that are not self- fulfilling will never be implemented by the par- ticipants acting as a bloc. When the conference ends most of the participants will once again focus on more pressing local and regional problems. Even if resolutions are brought to the UN General As- sembly as products of the nonaligned conference, there is no assurance that all nonaligned states will support them at the UN if it appears at the time that the resolutions conflict with their national interests. Approved For Release 2006/05/25 : CIA-RDP85T00875r001100160048-7 Approved For Release 2006/05/25 : CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100160048-7 Delegations Expected to Attend the Nonaligned Summit County Afghanistan Algeria Argen Gina Bahrain Bangladesh Bhutan Botswana Surma Eurundi Cambodia (GRUNK) Cameroon. Central Af_ican Republic Chad Chile Congo Cuba Cyprus Heading Delegation Ambassador to West Germany Pazhwak President Boumediene Foreign Minister Vignes Amir Khalifa Foreign Minister Hossain Vice President Masire Prime Minister Ne Win Prince Sihanouk President Ahidjo President Bokassa President Tombalbaye President Allende President Ngouabi Prime Minister Fidel Castro Foreign Minister Khristofidis Dahomey A-1 Approved For Releasel2006/05/25 : CIA-RDP85T0087TRO01100160048-7 25X1 Approved For Release 006/05/25 : CIA-RDP85T00875 001100160048-7 25X1 Country Egypt Ethiopia Gabon Gambia Ghana Guinea Guyana India Indonesia Iraq Ivory Coast Kenya Kuwait Laos Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Malagasy Republic Approved For RO Heading Delegation Ambassador Teodoro Bustamante President Sadat Emperor Haile Selassie President Bongo Commissioner for Foreign Affairs Baah Prime Minister Burnham Prime Minister Gandhi Foreign Minister Malik President Bakr President Houphouet- Boigny Prime Minister Manley Ambassador to Arab League Abd Al-Munim Rifai Amir Sabah Prime Minister Sulh Prime Minister Jonathan President Tolbert Foreign Minister Rat..- 9.r 3.I;.~ T5R001100160048-7 Approved For Relea .. - 5R001100160048-7 Country Malaysia Mali Mauritania Mauritius Mexico* Morocco Nepal Niger Nigeria Panama* Peru Qatar Saudi Arabia Senegal Sierra Leone Somalia South Vietnam (PRG) Singapore Sri Lanka 25X1 Approved For Rel Heading Delegation Prime Minister Razak President Traore President Quid Daddah Prime Minister Ramgoolam Foreign Secretary Rabasa King Hassan II King Birendra President Diori General Gowon Foreign Minister Tack Prime Minister Mercado Foreign Minister Suhaym Al-Thani Foreign Minister Nsekalije King Faysal President Senghor President Stevens Chairman of National Liberation Front Nguyen Huu Tho Foreign Minister Rjaratnam Prime Minister Bandaranaike ?75R001100160048-7 Approved For Release 001100160048-7 Country Sudan Swaziland Syria Tanzania Togo Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Uganda United Arab Emirates Upper Volta Uruguay* Venezuela* Yemen Arab Republic Heading Delegation President Numayri Deputy Prime Minister Khumalo President Asad President Nyerere President Eyadema UN Rep. Eustace Seignoret President Bourguiba President Amin President Zayid President Lamizana Senior Foreign Ministry Official Perez Chiriboga President of the Repub- lican Council Iryani Yemen, People's Democratic Republic of Yugoslavia Zaire Zambia President Tito President Mobutu Sese Seko President 1.:unda *Will attend as observer. A-4 Approved For Release - 001100160048-7 25X1