WEEKLY SUMMARY SPECIAL REPORT ROMANIA'S FLIRTATION WITH REFORM

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CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3
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April 30, 1971
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011 /01 /07 : ~, CIA-RDP85T00875R0015000 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011 /01 /07 CIA-RDP85T00875R0015000 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 Secret DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Sjiecial Re~iort Romanra'r Flirtation with Refor;~a DSB FILE GOPY RETURN TO 1E-61 7 ~~ J cn t: ~l~ ~= ~ ' ~ ?;~ E'~ ~~.a ~:f ,~ ``:.~ . ~ ~' Secret L ~.tGiJ ~~:.9 lN.r'tLI~' ~~ ~~ ~~~,~~o~ N~ 690 30 April 1971 No. 0368/~llA Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 25k,Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 CONFIDENTIAL On 8 May the Romanian Communist Party will celebrate its fiftieth anniver- sary. On this festive occasion the party will ballyhoo its own achievements, including the seizure of power in 1944. More importantly, the present youthful party leadership under General Secretary Nicolae Ceausescu must give a good account of its six-year tenure. In preparation for this milestone in the party's history, as well as for launching a new five-year plan, Ceausescu and his coterie have engaged since the first of the year in a whirlwind of speech-making, factory-touring, and hand-shaking. Not since the fall of 1968, when he ardently wooed the populace to gain support for his defiance of Moscow in condemning the Warsaw Pact's intervention in Czech- oslovakia, has Ceausescu politicked domestically with such intensity. Gomulka's fall from power during the upheavals in Poland last December has clearly influenced the tenor of Ceausescu's recent campaign. This is particularly evident in his emphasis on reinforcing the party's direct contact with the masses. The specter of the Polish disturbances took on added significance in Bucharest because Romania's own economic problems have increased greatly over the last few years. Nonetheless, it is obvious that Polish events have not altered Ceausescu's conviction of the correctness of his own style of Communism. He may be extremely pragmatic in foreign policy, but he is essentially conservative in domestic matters. Ceausescu has pegged Romania's continued political independence to the building of a strong and viable economy. With this in mind, he unveiled before a national party conference in late 1967 a set of cautious proposals for "improving and perfecting" economic management and planning. Only a few of these proposals have been effected, and most problems remain undiminished. Although Ceausescu obviously has become increasingly frustrated with the mediocre performance of the economy, he is apparently not willing to deviate sharply from the original plan of 1967. Seemingly he has given no serious consideration to going the route of Yugoslavia or Hungary by allowing pricing and other market forces some play in the economy. For now, Ceausescu and his technocratic colleagues will continue to rely mainly on agitation and propaganda to try to get the economy moving again. The upcoming anniversary celebrations and another national party conference slated for sometime this summer will provide appropriate forums. At this point, the possibility that the regime will embark on a truly liberal economic program seems remote indeed. Special Report - 1 CONFIDENTIAL 30 April 1971 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 CONFIDENTIA]~J The 1967 Program mrd /ts Results In December 1967, Nicolae Ceausescu had been at the head of the party for about a year and a half, long enough to make his personal presence felt, but not long enough to establish absolute political control. Ceausescu still shared the top leadership with several old cronies of the former party leader, Gheorghe Gheorghiu-Dej. One of his motives in calling a national party conference at that time was to put his own stamp on Commu- nist party policies and to differentiate his rule clearly from that of his former boss. Some of the changes he proposed at the conference were de- signed to allow him to take complete control of the patronage system of the party, to remove from positions of influence those who might op- pose him, and to replace them with younger and more able men who would be obligated to him. Moreover, at that time, the trend in Eastern Europe was toward economic and political re- form. Although the Romanian leadership was careful not to call its prograrn a reform, it was certainly cognizant of the need to appear more modern and flexible, particularly to its Western creditors and other potential non-Communist sources of advanced equipment and technology. Nevertheless, Romanian planners and leaders remained true to their orthodox and conservative outlook. Ceausescu, in his speech to the 1967 conference, carefully emphasized the primacy of the party, and indicated that his tinkering with the economic levers in Romania would remain within established socialist. bounds. Implicitly re- jecting unorthodox innovr3tions already in effect in Yugoslavia and advocated by some economists in Czechoslovakia, he stated flatly that "we can- not support theories to tl~e effect that a socialist economy should regulate: itself in a spontaneous manner on the basis...~of free market" mech- anisms. Ceausescu's 1967 program called for "per- fecting and improving" the economy and the administration of the country. Its main theme was criticism of excessive bureaucracy and cen- Special Report tralism. Citing the increasing need for modern technology, Ceausescu demanded that certain as- pects of "immobility" be eliminated from the bureaucracy, which he scored for its "subjec- tivism and stubbornness" and for hamperin.- "creative initiative." All this indicated that Ceausescu anticipated resistance to many of his proposed changes from entrenched bureaucrats and probably even from the workers themselves. He has returned to this theme often in recent months, indicating that this resistance has not yet been eradicated. Although Ceausescu in 1967 cited some critical economic problems in Romania, he stressed that he was in no hurry to make drastic changes, indicating that he accepted the prevailing arguMents that Romania's economy, with one of the highest growth rates in the world, was rela- tively strong and flourishing. Instead, he criticized wastefulness, inefficiency, inflexibility? and the lack of creativity, faults he said could be cor- rected over time through gradual and experi- mentalchanges. Ha was particularly at pains to assure his listeners that the need for change did not mean the failure of previous methods ~~or of socialist development to date. Then, as now, Ceausescu implicitly recognized the existence of dissatisfaction over shortages of consumer goods. Nevertheless, he has been unwavering about the party's long-standing commitment to rapid in- dustrialization, with its incumbent hardships and deprivations for the people. This past winter, for instance, larger quantities of food and other goods appeared on the markets-apparently as a stopgap measure in the wake of the Polish distur- bances-but the preliminary forecast of the new five-year plan included no provision for major increases in consumer ite~~s. Instead, it continued to stress investment as well as restricted con- sumption for the near future. Territorial Reorgmrizatiwr As part of his 1967 plan to cut down exces- sive bureaucracy, Ceausescu proposed a drastic reorganization of the country's administrative-ter- ritorial divisions. F-!is redistricting proposal was 2 - 30 April 1971 CONFIDENTIAL Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 CONFIDENTIAL Ceausescu tours Pitesti chemical works. enacted in 1968, and the former 17 regions (regruiresJ plus the Autonomous Magyar Region wire replaced by 39 counties (judetsJ, asystem roughly resembling tho prewar organization. The former subdivisions of the regiunes were abol- ished, thus cutting out one layer of bureaucracy in both the party and government between the national and the local level. The new county system has nationalistic overtones because it re- placed the system that had been copied from the Soviet model, but it was drawn so as to break up former concentrations of minorities. Earlier this year Ceausescu indicated satisfaction with the way it has worked out, and it can be assumed that the Judets are a permanent feature of Romanian !ife. Special Report - 3 CONFIDENTIAL At the heart. of Ceausescu's 1967 plan was the establishment of industrial centrals, which he defined as "powerful industrial complexes" com- prising enterprises in related fields, or enterprises cooperating in the production of a finished product. The enterprise is the basic unit of pro- duction in the Romanian Communist economic system. The purposes of the industrial centrals, which Ceausescu promised would have "wide autonomy," were to bring management closer to the production process; to reduce highly cen- tralized control from Bucharest; and to allow greater specialization, increased concentration of assets, and betfer access to research facilities. The ?0 Pepril 1971 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 CONFIDENTIAL CEAUSESCU'S ACTIVITIES IN EARLY 1971: ABROAD APPEAL TO WORKERS, PEASANTS, INTELLECTUALS, YOUTH, MINORITIES AND THE PARTY. January 45 Ceausescu and other national party leaders tour Brasov, Fagarts, and Sibiu counties. 12 Cea(tsesc(r and Olher leaders VISIT Pfeh OVa COUnIy, 14 CeaUSOSCU gOeS to Predeal to discuss local pr ublerns. 16 Enrployces' general mootinys at industrial, transportation, and construction silos begin ihrough? out tha cawitry. 21 Ccau$escn VISIlS IndUSIrIJI plants in Bucharest. 25 State Council meoting chaired by Coausesc~~. 29 Ceausescu visits additional plants in Bucharest. 30 Ceausescu begins working visit to lalornita county. February 1.2 Ceausescu tours and speaks in lalomita on agriculture. 3-5 Ceausescu speaks to natlonul confermrce on foraign trade, 10 Ceausescu addresses working meeting or literary and cultural artists. 10.11 Romanian Communist Party holds central committer plenum; Ceausescu speaks at closing session, 13 Plenum of National Union of Agricultural Production Cooperatives hold. Executive Bureau of national council of Socialist Unity Front me(!ts. 15 Ceausescu attends general rnoating of Ducharest marhino~building plant. 18.22 Ceaus(scu speaks at Ninth Congressot the Union of Communist Youth (UTC1. 19 German nationality council meets in Bucharest to hrar Ceause!;cu's address. 20 Ceausescu cr u! visits toed industry centers in Bucharrsi. 22.23 Cuausr!scu spanks at national session of representatives of industrial centrals held in Bucharest, :4-25 Cwusos(:u addresses national conference of workers Irom the state agriculture enterprises. March 4.5 Ceausescu speaks at ronicrenco of Architects Union. 5 Ceausescu spraks t~ working meoting of film workers. Party leaders horn Bucharest attend 9 county party and workers meetings. 8 Ceausescu present at meoting to form National Council u1 Romanian Radio and Television. 9 Gorman nationality plenary rnceting heW in Alba lotto. 10 Ceausescu speaks to rnceting of Bucharest party and industrial cadres. 12 Ceausescu spent s to plenum of Mayyar nationality council. i6 Ceausescu presides at State Council mooting. 17.18 Ceausescu attends Gmnd National Assembly session. 19 Ceausescu conducts unannounced tour of Bucharest market district. Romanian Morketing Association founded 23.27 Trade union congross held; Ceausescu speaks to opening session. Special Report - 4 CONFIDEN'Y'IAL 30 April 1971 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 CONFIDENTIAL industrial centrals were also to become more di- rectly involved in marketing their own products, both at home and abroad. This was intended as a means of cutting the powers and prerogatives of the government ministries that up until then had exclusive jurisdiction over enterprises. On 22 February of this year Ceausescua ad- dressed ameeting in Bucharest of representatives from the approximately 200 industrial centrals, the second such meeting since their establish- ment. He expressed satisfaction with the way the original concept had worked out in practice dur- ing the first year or so, indicating that the indus- trial centrals probably also will become a perma- nent feature of the Romanian system. At the same time, he was critical of those who for one reason or another apparently resist the new order of things. Not all centrals and ministries, he said, have understood that the centrals are to be pri- marily organs of production and not just coordi- nators. Ceausescu also attacked those centrals that in three years have become "mini-ministries" ~. by creating a new bureaucracy drawn from the technical cadres of the enterprises, thus pulling even more trained personnel out of direct produc- tion-just the opposite of what was intended. The ministries also received their share of Ceausescu's displeasure. As part of the new system, he had demanded that the top-heavy bureaucracy in Bucir~rest be trimmed, and that technicians and specialists be sent to the counties, where, as he pointed out, 85 percent of the coun- try's production takes place. In practice, Ceau- sescu charged, the ministers have finagled things so t'~at in the end, "all people remain in 23ucha- rest." Not only have the ministries resisted giving up their staffs, the party leader implied, but they have been reluctant to relinquish their powers and responsibilities. Turning to the duties of the industrial cen- trals, Ceausescu made the broad statement that the central "must be responsible for the entire economic-financial activity of the units under its jurisdiction" and act as the link between its pro- Special Report auction units, the state treasury, and the bank. All profits, however, must be turned into the state, and just how much discretion the central will have to reinvest the funds remains unclear. On the one hand, Ceausescu said that the central has the right to approve investments up to 30 million lei, but he quickly qualified this statement by saying that it must first draw up an investment plan and get it approved. The enterprise's freedom of maneuver is lim- ited by the provision requiring that, at the local level, the party secretary must attend the meet- ings of the enterprise management board. He is made responsible to the higher party organs for the decisions taken, thus exercising a strong re- straint on management. Ceausescu has sought to clarify the relation- ship of the centrals to the ministries, but the parameters of their respective powers are fuzzy. Ceausescu, without being specific, told thre recent meeting of industrial centrals that the ministries "will have to abandon some practices of the past-when they were involved in solving all prob- lems...." Earlier, in his speech to the central com- mittee plenum in mid-February, Ceausescu prohibited the ministries and other central bodies from issuing instructions except ones of a tech- nical nature. In a further effort to cut gown on red tape, he said only full-fledged ministers may issue orders to lower economic organs. F?reig~a Tradc ReJurm In early February 1971, Ceausescu called an unusual meeting bringing together top govern- ment and party leaders, members of the central committee, heads of Romanian diplomatic mis- sions abroad, and certain heads of economic enterprises. In his speech to this conference, he called for significant changes in the foreir~n trade organizations and in their methods of operation. All of these changes are similar to the ones called for in the draft directives of 1967. Nuking the obligatory reassurances to Ro- mania's CEMA partners, Ceausescu noted in his 5 . 30 April 1971 CONFIDENTIAL Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 CONFIDENTIAL speech that the socialist countries would continue to account for over 50 percent of Romania's total trade under the new five-year plan. From 1966 to 1970 the socialisfi countries represented 54.4 per- cent of Romania's total trade, but this figure included trade with C;emmunist China, and in 1969 Romania's trade with CEMA countries fell slightly bslow the 50 percent mark. Romania's trade with Communist China will continue to grow under annual trade agreements, but un- doubtedly not c+nough to affect Buchiares:'s dependency on trade with the Soviet bloc. There are obvious political arguments for maintaining trade wilh the Soviet bloc at least on a par with Western trade, but Romania certainly would pre- fer to continue to increase the percentage of its trade with the West, whic4r has the sophisticated equipment and technology it needs. The eco- nomics of the situation, Itowevar, make such a policy difficult. E3ucharest obtain: raw materials from the bloc countries mare cheaply than it could elsewhere, and in turn the latter provide a certain market for goods that in terms of quality are riot competitive in the West. Romania's increased trade with nons~cialist countries has caused serious problems for the economy, and Ceausescu directed most of his comments toward this sector. The most nagging problem is the serious trade deficit, which for 1969 amounted to $107 million, most of it ac- counted for by imports on credit from the West. Romania's outstanding debts to industrialized non-Communist countries at the end of 1969 Totaled $0.8 billion. Ceausescu explained that in the last five years imports had grown at an annual rate of 1.2.6 percent, while exports had increased only 11 percent annually. The 1971-75 foreign trade plan aims at reducing the deficit by calling fora 55 percent increase over the 1970 level of total trade ~?~nd for an 82-percent increase in ex- ports. To accomplish this, Ceausescu again put the stress on reducing excessive centralism. Foreign trade has been the exclusive monopoly of enter- prises under the Ministry of Foreign Trade. 'The Special Report basics of his solution had been outlined in the 1967 draft directives, but they apparently are only now bung put into effect. Under a foreign trade law just passed, each enterprise and ind.+s- trial central is to be "directly answerable for the sale of production and consequently of exports." The industrial centrals are to develop direct con- tacts with the domestic and foreign buyers of their goods. The centrals are to set up their own export sections to study the market, and com- mercial agents from the centrals will go abroad to engage in selling. If one refers to Ceausescu's speech in Febru- ary, however, application of the new foreign trade law will be restricted. Thus, for example, the Ministry of Foreign Trade will retain broad pow- ers of guidance, veto, and planning. In the future, permission from the central planning authorities for an enterprise or a central to import products will be contingent on demonstrating its ability to pay for them with earnings from its exports. This stipu?ation obviously is aimed at trying to balance imports with exports, but if rigorously enforced, it would put severe strains on what is still a struggling economy that requiras more advanced Western technology than it can pay for. More- over, it would not encourage the strict specializa- tion of production Ceausescu has insisted on. Those units that want to import would also have to export., but those sectors that ordinarily export are nct necessarily the ones that require imports; thus such a rule might have tite effect of per- petuating existi;ig export patterns. In 1967, the party leader hinted at another measure for improving the quality of production. At that tirr~e he said that the future success +~f enterprises will be judged r~~t only on quantita- tive indices, "'but to a greaier extent than at present" on profitability. Since last December he has put this in stronger terms: "Only when the countervalue of the products has been cashed in-in Romanian lei or foreign currency-is the production cycle concluded, and only after all this has been completed can one consider that the enterprise and its mana~'tement and staff have CONFIDENTIAL 30 April 1971 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 CONFIDENTIAL fu Ifilled their planned tasks...." Should this dictum, which he reiterated at the foreign trade conference, be strictly applied during the im- plementation of the new five-year plan, it could have a profound impact on many sectors of the economy. It would reveal, for one thing, those producing units that are not paying their way. Ceausescu in the past has criticized the theory that socialism can afford to retain unprofitable units, but the leadership has not shown itself willing to do anything about the problem. The regime has instituted an experimental wage sys- tem for the trading nefwork beyun in February, by which wages will fluctuate on a percentage basis of planned profit. Ceausescu has tacitly recognized that the success of all economic plans ultimately depends on the motivation of the workers, and he has made a concerted bid through the medium of the trade unions for their cooperation in fulfilling the high expectations of the current five-year plan. His speech to a central committee plenum on 11 February as well as his address to the Trade Union Congress on 23 March concentrated on the need #o reinvigorate and "democratize" the trade unions. These speeches are the best indication that Romania's leaders wish to ensure that thore will be no outbursts similar to those in Poland last December. The essence of Ceausescu's message was that the trade unions have ';een too much under the party's thumb and have failed to show any initia- tive in pushing For higher production or in pro- tecting the workers' rights and welfare. He argued that the trade unions should no longer be merely a "transmission belt," because the party does not need such a devica to communicate wifh the working people. He ordered the trade unions to do avr~ay with "old practices"; to give priority to production problems; to organize themselves autonomously and not merely as copies of the party organization; to take a more active role in representing the workers at the Council of Min- Special Report ister?s; and to cooperate more closely with the Communist Youth Union and the media in educating the workers in "socialist behavior." As one remedial action, Ceausescu recom- mended that working people directly active in production should participate in the trade union's directing bodies, so that the latter are not based entirely on salaried trade union bureaucrats. On 27 March the trade union central council duly elected seven deputy chairmen to its bureau, five of whom will remain active in production work. Ceausescu talks with worker in Cluj. The new direction outlined by Ceausescu for the trade unions may give some Romanian work- ers more hope of making their grievances known, but the general secretary punctuated his speeches with enough qualifications to make them skepti- cal. He referred several times to the Communist Party's leading role in society and argued that "it is natural that our party manages all social bodies, including the trade union." The new statutes for? all levels of trade union organizations, from the local to the national level, reflect Ceausescu's 30 April 1971 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 CONFIDEN'T'IAL somewhat contradictory views. The statutes were approved by the congress, and a new trade union law has been drafted, which still must receive formal approval by the Grand National Assembly. The direction of future reform in the trade unions may depend more on the leadership of their new boss, 45-year-old Virgil Trofin, than on the formal statutes. Trofin's rise in the party was rapid; he vas widely regarded as one of Ceau- sescu's most favored proteges, and his former position as party secretary in charge of cadres gave him potentia-ly the second most powerful post in the party. In August 1969, however, he lost his responsibility for the party's internal af- fairs, and was named secretary in charge of agri- culture amidst reports that Ceausescu was dis- pleased with his display of ambition. He was dropped from the secretariat in Fe~ruary and made head of the trade unions, a change that may have been a further demotion. Still, Trofin is young and his ability undisputed, and he retains seats on the party's Permanent Presidium (polit- buro) and its Executive Committee. Although he by no means has a reputation as a liberal, he could provide the forceful direction needed to remold the t!'ade unions in the workers' interest. There will be limits, however, on how far Trofin can go in this direction; presumably Ceausescu ,;ill not allow him to build a political base among the trade unions. Agriculture is still the stepchild of the Ro- manian economy, and its performance of the past few years has begun to alarm the leadership. Agri- culture has been severely neglected in terms of investment when compared with the industrial sector, but it accounts for a c;isproportionately large share of exports, especially to hard-currency countries. Foodstuffs and lumbar products have been extremely important in earning hard cur- rency for Romania, but the share of these products in total exports to the West has not increased since the early 1y60s. The floods in the inefficiency, out-of-date methods, and lack of incentive on the part of the collectivized peasants. Ceausescu, nevertheless, apparently has no plans to make radical changes in the backward agricultural cooperatives, although there has been a reorganization to link them more closely with the more technologically advanced state ayricul- tural enterprises. To increase initiative at the local level, the party leadership in February abolished the positions of secretaries in charge of agricul- ture at the central committee and county com- mittee levels. This suggests that party interference in daily agriculture decisions will be minimized, in contrast with its active position in the industrial sector. The party is counting on a program of increased investment over the next five years (double that of the previous period), and on intensified irrigation and fertilization to bring agriculture olat of the doldrums. The workers and peasants have probably skeptically received Ceausescu's frenetic spring of 1970 further aggravated the serious Inhabitants of BucharPSt city cheer the party General Secretary Special Report and his wife (center) at a local celebration. 30 April 1971 CONFIDENTIAL Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 CONFIDENTIAL General Secretary Ceausescu, Iris wife Elena (cerr~r), and Premier Ion Gheorghe Maurer (right) on a typical outing, among young people at a harvest festival. speechmaking in the last few months..~lthough he has given assurances that the party is in con- stant touch and consultation with them, he has in essence promised very little. The new five-year plan reportedly calls fora 20 percent increase in wages--about 4 percent yearly-but makes no commitment that consumer prices will not also be raised, just as they have been in the pass. For the wage earner, the continued stress on industrializa- tion means scant hope for a better standard of living. As for the workers having a voice in produc- tion, there is yet no evidence that Ceausescu's frequent promises of an enhanced role for the woi leers' asserriblies will be translated into reality. He has said that these assemblies will have the power to disavow decisions of the enterprise management boards, which could lead to re- placing the managers. Such action would depend, however, on the active intervention of higher authorities. Thus the workers have no final veto, and the workers' assemblies in Romania are a long way from developing into the self-management system of Yugoslavia. S~.Qcial Report Partly for these masons, there is deep-seated apathy and discontent among the working classes, out it is probably more pronounced in the coun- tryside than in the cities. The Romanian leader- ship in the weeks following the Polish events made concessions only to the peasants. Prices were lowered on selected farm items, such as fertilizers and small farming equipment. The fact remains, however, that agricultural workers are still subject to essentially punitive measures for failing to work at capacity. In a speech to the national conference of workers from the state agricultural enterprises on 25 February, Ceau- sescu stated flatly that income payments will con- tinue to be withheld if production goals are not met. In a similar vein, there have been few new concessions to Romania's national minorities. Ceausescu addressed the national councils of the German and Hungarian minorities-on l.9 Febru- ary and 12 March, respectively-with a familiar theme. His message to the Germans bluntly fore- closed the possibility of arty large-scale resettle- ment to West Germany. This suggests that the earlier repatriation agreement in the treaty be- tween the Germans and the Poles had raised similar hopes among Romanian Germans. He made a similar signal to the Hungarians, but told bath minorities that his long-standing pledge of equal treatment under the law was still in force. In addition, he promised more minority-language publications and schools. Nevertheless, there is strong evidence that both the Germans and the Hungarians still ,feel themselves discriminated against by the Romanian majority, particularly in wages, employment, and in advanced education. Although the substance of Ceausescu's cam- paign has been mai~ily economic, the theme is political-that is, keeping the party in touch with tl~e people. Thus, he did not ignore the literary and cultural workers and the mass media. On 10 February at a meetiny of art and cultural workers, CONFIDENTIAL 30 April 1971 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 CONFIDENTIAL Ceausescu came do?wr. on both sides of the key question of how much freedom of creativity and innovation should be allowed. He reiterated his commitment to the "liquidation of those short- comings and the past negative state of affairs that fettered creative thinking"-a clear reference to the period of Stalinist literature and art. He also railed against "standardization and cliches, rigid- ity and dogmatism," but fa~~ed to acknowledge that these features of arti~iic life in a Communist society are traceable to the censors, who still wield a firm hand in Romania. At the same time, Ceausescu's clear preference for art that honors the "new man," anr~ "socialist humanism" that serves the interests of the state and that fights against "retrograde" and "mystical" concepts (read Western influences] does not augur well for meaningful liberalization. Perhaps rriost sign;i'icant was Ceausescu's announcement of tho creation of a national coun- cil of Romanian radio and television, to be headed by Dumitru Popescu. As party secretary in charge of culture and propaganda, Popescu has gained the reputation for being a dogmatist, and his appointment may forecast tightened control by the party. The Party Although Ceausescu has substantially curbed the arbitrary po~vers of the secret police, the Romanian people are still subject to close control by omnipresent party, government and security organs. Ceausescu has also revealed and de- nounced certain "illegal" proceedings of the former regime, in an effort to divest his own rule of the taint of terror. Under the new constitution, introduced in 1965, and several subsequent new legal codes, the Romanian people have been guar- anteed certain minimal civil rights, but the reins are still held tightly by the government. Concomitant with these measures, the party now plays a more direct role in all aspects of social life. To broaden its popular base and simul- taneously to enhance its levers of control, the Special Report party has swelled its ranks to number almost 10 percent of the population under Ceausescu's regime. He has sought to improve the party's image by making it more democratic intern~ily and by introducing younger, technically educated leaders. A new law on the retraining of cadres reruires all managers and workers in party and government to obtain periodic technical school- ing. The overriding consideration in Ceausescu's attitude toward the party is to maintain it as the dominant force in society. All the changes in the economic system have been proposed and ef- fected under the explicit assumption that the party will retain the first and final say. Although the tenor of the Romanian leader- ship's pro!~fic rhetoric in the past few months undoubtedly has been influenced by the Palish events, the latter did not precipitate them. The discussions, reportedly quite frank at times, have had the earmark of Ceausescu's style and have reflected a good deal of forethought on his part. Winter ~s the customary time for introspection among Romanian leaders; Ceausescu had the unprec~de;ited experience of a private tour of the US last fall to temper his cogitations. His visitsto factories, supermarkets, and farms in the US seem to have made him more painfully aware than ever of the backwardness of tiie Romanian ecomomy. Nonetheless, neither the Pc!Ish upheavals nor Ceause~cu's personal view of 11~e US system has shaken the Romanian leader's fundamental commitment to his own style of Communism. He may be extremely pragmatic in foreign policy, but +~p is essentially conservative and cautious in domestic matters. The alterations Ceausescu has proposed show that Ise still believes the Romanian economy can be made to work with only adjust- rnen ~s in personnel and organization (since December 1967, ti~ere have been at least a dozen major organizational changes in the Council of Minis?ers alone). He has apparently given no seri- nus consideration to going the route of Yugo- slavia or Hungary by allowing pricing and other market forces some play in the economy_ - 10 - 30 April 1971 CONFIDENTIAL Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3 CONFIDENTIAL Wlth some justification, the Romanians have cited the danger of Soviet intervention if they ware to undertake afar-reaching economic lib- eralization. Events in Czechoslovakia in August 1968 bolstered their fears of Soviet reaction. Nonetheless, the USSR has demonstrated that its prime concern lies in maintaining undisputed con- trol by Communist parties in Eastern Europe and in preventing i.i:~ exertion of undue influence from the V'Vest. In the case of Romania the weight of evidence suggests that even without the limita- tions imposed by Moscow, the leadership is not inclined to make sweeping domestic changes. The inherent contradiction in Ceausescu's desire to improve the economy without launching major reforms may explain why his bark seems worse than his bite-why some of his demands for change over the past three years have been vir- tually ignored. It is apparent, from Ceausescu's oft-repeated criticism, that many of the country's managers have simply sat on their hands or have used bureaucratic subterfuges for evading those central directives that threaten their accustomed privileges. Ceausescu teas succeeded in bringing the higher and middle levels of the party com- pletely under his control, but at the lower levels there probably is still sentiment for the orthodox, cut-and-dried way of doing things. He has app~~?- ently had particular difficulty in overcoming the inertia of the government bureaucracy. It is still too early to say whether Ceausescu's renewed efforts will leave a more profound impact than have previous bursts of energy, but his tactics at the national party conference this summer may provide clues to his next attempts to grapple with this problem. The implementation of the cumulative pro- gram since 1967, particularly with regard to the trade unions, may present Ceausescu with prob- lems of another sort. It is not inconceivable that, hearing continually of their supposed rights and powers, the workers may one day demand somE of them in actuality. Their dissatisfaction with unfulfilled promises of a better life could become more intense, especially as economic: contacts with the West become more common- place. Special Report - 11 - CONFIDENTIAL 30 April 1971 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/01/07 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001500030015-3