ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140032-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 21, 2006
• Sequence Number: 32
• Publication Date: September 20, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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Secret
25X1
LAW COPY
Return to OS3
1"11079 Hq.
S
C
Economic Intelligence Weekly
Secret
CIA No. 7801/73
20 September 1973
Copy No. 1 G 0
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CONTENTS
Page
Japan Negotiating Direct Oil Purchase with Iraq I
China May Soon Inaugurate International Air Service I
Soviet Farm Tractors to Be Sold hi the United States 1
International Monetary Developments 1
Foreign Views on Monetary Reform: The Nairobi Meeting The
monetary reform discussions at the annual IMF meeting in Nairobi
on 24-28 September are likely to demonstrate that, despite
concurrence on some basic principles, wide differences remain. 3
Soviet Hard Currency Payments Position Last year's record hard
currency deficit-and another in the offing for 1973?-prompted the
USSR to sell large amounts of gold, borrow heavily abroad, and seek
long-term solutions to its balance-of-payments problems.
Worldwide Grain Developments 5
Outcome of the Tokyo Trade Meeting Multilateral trade
negotiations to begin. 6
Chile: The Junta Is Beginning to Come to Grips with the Economic
Mess Security and supplies are improving, but the regime still must
obtain credits to finance some essential imports.
World Iron Ore Developments The major iron ore exporters have
begun mutual efforts to improve their bargaining positions against
iron ore importers.
Publications of Interest
Summaries of Recent Publications
Comparative Indicators
Recent Data Concerning Domestic and External
Economic Activity
to I
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SE,CRE'1'
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
Notes
Japan Negotiating Direct Oil Purchase with Iraq
The Japanese hope to arrange a large contract with Iraq providing for
the delivery of 2.00,000 b/d of crude oil for 10 years beginning in 1976
plus 275 million cubic feet per day of liquefied petroleum gas over a 15-year
period. In return, Japan is prepared to offer Iraq a $500 million
Export-Import Bank loan. During the past year the Japanese have been
aggressively lining up long-term supplies of crude oil and already have direct
purchase contracts with Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. The Japanese,
with Baghdad's urging, have been trying to expand their ties with Iraq and
ensure their future access to crude oil. In recent months they have gained
a part interest in an oil concession and have signed other long-term contracts
for delivery of Iraqi propane and butane gas. 25X1
China May Soon Inaugurate International Air Service
Recent deliveries of 2 of the 10 Boeing 707s ordered by China in
1972 have set the stage for international service by at least early 1974.
Since the beginning of 1973, air accords have been signed with the
Scandinavian countries, Canada, Greece, and the United Kingdom, bringing
to 21 the number of PRC international air agreements. (UNCLASSIFIED)
Soviet Farm Tractors to Be Sold in the United States
The Soviet export organization Traktoroeksport will try to sell wheeled
farm tractors in the United States by the end of this year. The tractors,
to be handled by Belarus Saies of Canada, Ltd., will be offered in the
low- to medium-horsepower range and may be priced as much as 15% below
comparable US models. Even with attractive prices, Relarus will have to
International Monetary Developments
The Dutch guilder's recent revaluation, undertaken primarily to
dampen domestic inflation, heightened uncertainty in international money
markets. The dollar weakened somewhat, as traders shifted into marks and
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Belgian francs in expectation that they would appreciate -- possibly even
be revalued -- in the wake of The Hague's decision. Still, the dollar remains
significantly stronger than it was in July and early August. Major European
central banks are intervening to maintain the joint float, with Bonn and
Brussels buying the weaker French francs and Norwegian crowns, and Paris
and Oslo selling marks and Belgian francs. The French franc came under
articular) heavy pressure on Wednesday.
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SECRET
Foreign Views on Monetary Reform: The Nairobi Meeting
The monetary reform negotiations leading up to the annual IMF
meeting in Nairobi have brought some agreement on broad principles but
little progress beyond that. For the most part, they have been devoted
to discussing the US proposal that changes in international reserves be used
as a criterion in determining when national economic policies need to be
modified. This issue and the conditions for currency convertibility probably
will be considered in the reform discussions.
Paris, as usual, has been the most outspoken critic of US proposals.
The French believe that, while many of the world's financial problems are
the result of unsound US policies, Washington wants to place the adjustment
burden on other nations. Paris also is determined to block any reforms
sponsored by the United States or other nations that would reduce national
control over economic policy.
Other European nations find solace in parts of the US and French
views and will try to mediate between them. The EC, as an entity, will
play only a minor role in the reform negotiations.
Japan and Canada also are interested in producing an acceptable
US-European compromise cn reform. Japan played the arbiter's role at the
Tokyo Ministerial meeting. Since the Japanese want to prevent a
re-emergence of foreign pressures for further revaluation of the yen, they
will join the Europeans in opposing the US adjustment proposal. Ottawa
is highly satisfied with its own dollar float and is eager to establish the
principle that floating is justified under certain circumstances.
The less developed countries may be a contentious element at Nairobi
and in the subsequent negotiations. The oil producers want to make certain
that their reserve accumulations will not be penalized. The other LDCs are
primarily interested in firmly establishing the SDR-aid link. The question
of Taiwan's continued participation in the r.MF probably will not arise at
Nairobi.
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S_ 1
Soviet Hard Currency Payments Position*
The Soviet hard currency deficit reached a new high of $1.4 billion
in 1972 and may rise to $2 billion in 1973. To cover its deficits, the USSR
has had to borrow heavily and sell large amounts of gold. Although
imbalances of this magnitude are temporary, the Soviets face a continuing
problem because of sluggish exports and rapidly rising debt service
payments. To increase hard currency earnings, Moscow has been seeking
export-oriented joint projects with Western countries.
The massive 1972-73 deficits were largely caused by the increase in
imports of farm products arising from last year's poor harvest and the
growing Soviet demand for quality foods. The 1972 deficit was financed
mainly by $1 billion in credits, including for the first time substantial short-
anr! medium-term Eurodollar loans. Large sales of gold (150 tons) brought
in another $300 million. Gold sales totaled 150 tons during the first half
of 1973 and may amount to 150-250 tons (luring the second half. The
.proceeds could cover as much as $1.2 billion of the projected 1973 deficit.
The remainder will be financed through credits, including $400 million in
US Commodity Credit Corporation loans.
Although Soviet imports of agricultural products will decline from the
record 1972-73 level, pressure on the USSR's hard currency balance of
payments will continue. Service payments on the rapidly growing hard
currency debt will be about 27% of export earnings this year, compared
with only 1 I% as recently as 1967. Unless export growth accelerates, the
USSR may feel constrained to reduce its foreign borrowing and imports.
To solve this problem, Moscow is acquiring Western technical and financial
assistance for projects that are self-liquidating and will result in large net
hard currency earnings. Realization of these earnings may take perhaps a
decade. Meanwhile, the USSR probably will sell substantial quantities of
gold and may have to curtail import growth as well.
US-Soviet trade has increased much faster than total Soviet trade with
the West in the past two years, largely because of US exports of agricultural
products. US machinery and equipment exports are also rising. The United
States has extended about $800 million in credits since June 1972 to. help
finance these exports. Continuing sales of US grain and US participation
in major Soviet projects to develop fuels and raw materials will I,e important
factors in increasing US-Soviet trade.
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Woridwide Grain Developments
A record harvest is still in prospect, even though the Soviet Agriculture
Minister expressed concern about the crop
If favorable weather prevails for the remainder of the harvest season, 165
million tons of usable grain should be harvested. Production will fall below
160 million tons if Inclement weather reaches the area threshed. The quality
of some grain will be low because of wet weather. This problem could
lead the USSR to import more milling-juality wheat. At the same time,
a 165-million ton harvest would permit the USSR to sell small quantities
of feed grains to countries other than its usual customers.
Yugoslavia
Belgrade estimates that this year's wheat crop was better than expected.
The 4.7-million ton wheat harvest was only 3% less than last year's despite
a 13% smaller sown area. As a result, wheat imports for FY 1974 are likely
to be 300,000 tons, compared with an earlier forecast of 500,000 tons.
Australia is projecting 1974 wheat exports at about 8 million tons,
compared with an estimated 4.5 million tons this year. Although the harvest
does not begin until December, the Wheat Board already has committed
3 million tons to such traditional customers as China, Egypt, Japan, and
Chile. The Australians apparently intend to satisfy requirements of their
other traditional markets, in -:luding the United Kingdom, Malaysia, and Iran,
but are reluctant to make additional commitments until the size of the
crop becomes clearer. India, which has purchased little wheat from Australia
in recent years, has received no commitment as yet in response to its recent
request -or one million tons as soon as possible.
Badly burned by its experience in taking over the wholesale wheat
trade last spring, the government has decided not to nationalize the
wholesale rice trade this fall as planned. Farmer resistance and low
government prices for wheat have disrupted normal food grain distribution
since April and sharply curtailed government procurement of wheat. The
lack of government intervention in rice marketing should ermit a return
to more orderly food grain distribution to urban areas.
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SECRET
The "Nixon Round" of Multilateral Trade Negotiations was launched
last week when 102 nations unanimously agreed to tile "Declaration of
Tokyo," pledging their governments' participation in ta!ks aimed at
liberalizing world trade. Many difficult issues remain to be resolved,
however, concerning non-tariff barriers, agricultural trade, and safeguards,
as well as industrial tariffs. The actual bargaining begins on 24 October
in Geneva under the auspices of the newly e;tablished Trade Negotiations
Committee. France and various other countries insist that the United States
have negotiating authority before substantive talks begin. The French
anticipate that the complexity of the talks will cause them to go on beyond
1975.
The Tokyo participants managed to agree on compromise language
covering the thorny issue of the link between trade and monetary
negotiations. Tile EC position that progress in the trade talks depend!, on
.progress in the monetary discussions is reflected in the compromise as is
the US position that improvements in the trading system are necessary for
an improved monetary system.
The final obstacle to agreement in the draft was a dispute over special
treatment for the least developed countries. Brazil and Colombia refused
to accept language in the declaration that stipulated that these countries
would receive special treatment, insisting they would go along with this
language only if the wording provided that the special treatment would
not adversely affect other developing countries. The two Latin American
nations capitulated, however, when it was agreed that their interpretation
of the issue would be recorded in the proceedings of the conference.
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S 1?.C R E'1'
Chile: The Junta Is Beginning to Come to Grips
with the Economic Mess
As the security situation continues to improve, the Junta is taking
steps to correct distribution snarls. Many essential consumer items are
reappearing. Striking truckers have returned to work. All of Santiago's grain
mills are now operating on a 24-hour basis. Banks have reopened.
Distribution of fuel has resumed. Some mining and manufacturing firms
are returning to normal operations. The large El Teniente copper mine
reportedly has started producing again.
it intends to follow
conservative economic policies. All firms taken over illegally will be returned
to their owners. Most of the companies taken legally will be divested by
the government; the workers reportedly will receive 40%-50% of the
ownership, while the remainder will be sold to the public. The copper mines
presumably will remain under state control.
Copper exports are expected to be nearly large enough to pay for
urgent import needs. The Junta will still require new short- and long-term
credits both to finance immediate import needs and to begin rebuilding the
economy. The Central Bank is in chaos. Chile's disposable assets reportedly
are $112 million in gold and foreign exchange, including $30 million
earmarked to pay other Latin American Central Banks.
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SI'"(liRIt"I'
World Iron Ore Developments
Major iron ore exporters -- particularly Australia, India, and Brazil --
have begun mutual efforts to improve their bargaining position against iron
ore importers.
? In March and June, Australian and Brazilian officials agreed
to exchange market information.
? In July the Australian and Brazilian ministers for minerals
and energy met in Australia and discussed a joint pricing
policy to offset Japanese efforts to play one producer off
against the other.
? India is pressing for a fixed price schedule, especially in
cooperation with Australia, India's main competitor in the
Far East.
The impetus for producer cooperation stems from a common desire
to counter the strong bargaining power of Japan, the world's largest importer
of iron ore. Prices paid by the Japanese under long-term contracts had not
increased until recently. Last month, Brazilian and Australian companies
finally negotiated a 151%% price increase - far below the 26% increase sought.
Although some form of producer cooperation is likely, any agreement
probably will exert little pressure on world iron ore prices, in part because
Brazil and Australia both plan to expand ore exports sharply. Foreign steel
companies, moreover, control most of the iron ore companies, limiting the
governments' ability to force price increases.
Japan would be most affected by a producers' agreement, since imports
supply 98% of Japanese iron ore needs and Japanese steel companies do
not own the mines from which they obtain their ore. Foreign government
moves to raise ore prices would have less impact on US steel companies -
the United States import.,, only 3210 of iron ore requirements, almost entirely
from company-controlled mines in Canada and Venezuela. Western Europe,
which imports 52% of its needs, would be more affected, although European
companies own some foreign mines. 25X1
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S I+',C R Ei'
Publications of Interest
US-Soviet Economic Agreements Since the Summit
(CIA ER INI 73-60, September 1973,
Since the May 1972 summit, US firms and the USSR have signed 25X1
contracts and commercial agreements worth 'billions of dollars.
iroreign countermeasures to oar Depreciation:
A Little-Used Strategy
CIA ER 73-58, September 1973,
F
Foreign countermeasures to offset the impact of the dollar's
depreciation on countries' trading positions so far have been minor. The
foreign response has been limited to scattered criticism of US policy; a
few European and Japanese moves designed to soften and slow the impact,
particularly for politically sensitive industries; and in some cases, a tougher
stand on trade and monetary reform issues. Reactions generally have been
restrained because the effect of the currency changes on the trade
performance of the major appreciating currency countries has been small
and because burgeoning domestic demand abroad has been adequate to
compensate for any losses in foreign sales.
US Economic Interests in Africa
(CIA ER H 73-3, September 1973,
This handbook presents key features of US-African trade, US
investment in Africa, and US aid to Africa -- text, detailed statistical tables
by region and country, and data sheets for each of 23 African countries
that together account for 95% of US trade with Africa.
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UNCLASSIFIED;
,DOMESTIC ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Average Annu
Growth Pale Sln
al''
r
. ' Percent Change
Laletil from Previous 1Year'
Earlier
3 Months
Earlier
GNP"
(Constant Market Prices
United States
)
Quarter
73 11
0.6
6.4
WHOLESALE PRICES
Previous (Industrial)
Quarter
2.5 Aug73 0.4 7.6 5.2
Japan
73 11
1.4
13.0
6.9
Aug 73
2.1
17.4
23.4
West Germany
73 11
-1.1
7.2
-4.2
Aug 73
0.4
7.6
7.4
France
13 1
3.3
5.1
13.8 France
Jun 73
1.4
13.6
9.1
United Kingdom
73 II
0.7
6,4
2.8
Aug 73
1.0
7.1
13.3
Italy
131
0.8
5.2
3.4
Jun 13
2.3
18.2
23.2
Canada
73 II
0.9
6.8
3.7
Jut, 73
1.8
16.1
15.8
Jul 73
02 5.7 6.3
Jul 73
-0.4
19.2
9.9
Jul73
0.7
11.9
11.0
Jun 73
-2.8
6.7
0
-0.1
7.2
2.5
Jun 73
-1.5
8.9
0
Jul 73
0.8
7.4
Jun 73
0.4
10.4
Jul 73
0.4
9.4
7.0
Italy
Jun 73
-1.0
10.2
31.7 Italy
Jul 73
0.6
11.8
12.6
Canada
Jul 73
0.1
10.7
4.4 Canada
Aug 73
1.3
8.3
RETAIL SALES'
jCurrent Prices)
United States
Aug 73
0.3
11.8
12.4
United' States Aug 73 0.4 7.7 6.8 8.2
Japan
May '3
0.5
11.9
21.3
15.0 Japan
Jun 73
0.8
18.7
29.9
16.1
West Germany
Jul 72
-1.8
8.4
6.4
-7.0 West Germany
Jul 73
-3.4
9.0
3.1
-21.5
Franco
May 13
6.7
5.3
13.4
#.5 France
Mar 7C
1.2
12.7
10.4
-2.1
United Kingdom
May 7
0.8
9.8
11.1
-14.0
Jul 73
2.3
122
13.0
12.9
Italy
Feb 73
9.0
11.5
18.8
24.1 Italy
Mar 73
1.0
19.9
18.3
-3.7
Canada
Jun 73
0.5
10.4
10.4
-0.3 Canada
Jul 73
1.4
13.8
15.0
15.5
Percent Rate of Interest
Representative Roles
12 Manths 3 Months 1 Month
latest Earlier Earlier Father
United States
Prime finance paper
Sep 14
9.00 4.75 7.50 8.50
Japan
Cell money
Sep 8
8.50
4.25
8.60
7.50
West Germany
Interbank loans (3 months)
Sep 7
14.25
5.00
12.63
14.25
France
Coll money
Sep 7
9.12
3.62
7.62
8.69
United Kingdom
Local authority deposits
Sep 14
13.13
4.83
7.38
12.75
Canada
Finance paper
Sep 14
8.83
5.25
6.88
7.88
Euro-Dollars
Three-month deposits
Sep 14
11.44
6.58
8.75
11.56
UNCLASSIFIED
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Avenge Annual
(Growth Rote $Into
Percent Change
Latest Iram Prevloua 1 Year 3 Monlha
Period Period 1070 Earlier Earlier
EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
EXPORT PRICES
(US $)
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Jul 73
Jul 73
Jun 73
Apr 73
Jul 73
Apr 73
May 73
2.2
1.7
4.7
-0.8
-0.9
0.9
0.7
EXPORT PRICES
(National Currency)
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Jul-73 1 2.2
Jul 73 1.3
Jun 73 -2.2
Apr 73 -0.4
Jul 73 1.1
Apr 73 2.6
I May 73 0.5
IMPORT PRICES
(National Currency)
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Jul 73
Jul 73
Jun 73
Apr 73
Jul 73
Apr 73
May 73
1.7
4.0
-1.6
2.4
3.3
3,3
1.4
OFFICIAL RESERVES
Latest Period
End of
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Jul 73
Aug 73
Aug 73
Aug 73
Aug 73
Jun 73
Aug 73
14.0
15.1
37.9
10.3
6.5
6.0
5.6
EXPORTS"
g.o.b )
7.3
12.3
13.2
12.1
10.0
8.2
5.8
10.8
23.3
22.7
15.8
15,1
9.8
10.2
31.5 United States
20.4 Japan
42.8 West Germany
58.0 France
20.3 United Kingdom
24.7 Italy
21.8 Canada
IMPORTS'
10.1
5.0
0.1
3.3
12.2
8.5
4,7
10.8
8.0
-0.2
4.8
11.4
10.4
11.4
31.5
17.6
-3.7
6.8
12.2
28.0
21.4
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
CumuloUvo? Million US S)
Million US S 1913 1072
5,809
Jan-Jul
38,158
27,492
2,880
Jan-Aug
22,632
17,700
0,002
Jan Jul
35,918
26,090
3,169
Jan-Aug
23,451
16,008
2,622
Jan-Aug
18,839
14,742
1,037
Jan-Jun
0,479
8,808
2,071
Jan-Jul
14,054
11,252
(f.o.b.) latest
Pnnnd Million US S
United States
Jul 73
5.762
Japan
Aug 73
2,922
West Germany
Jul 73
4,007
France
Aug 73
3,146
United Kingdom
Aug 73
3,010
Italy
Jun 73
2,212
Canada
Jul 73
1,946
TRADE BALANCE'
Latost
P
United States
eriod
Jul 73
107
Japan
Aug 73
-42
West Germany
Jul 73
1,395
France
Aug 73
13
United Kingdom
Aug 13
-4?S
Italy
Jun 73 -275
Canada
Jul 73 125
19.2
24.0
3.3
5.0
31.7
16.7
8.9
15.1
48.5
3.2
1.0
39.7
49.2
26.6
I Year 3 Months
Jun 1970 Earlier Earlier
16.3
4.1
8.8
4.4
2.8
4.7
4.3
13.1 14.0 Japanlronl
16.4 15.9 West GermanylMa k)Ihe
24.6 32.2 France (Franc) pmn(l
10.0 11.0 United Kingdom smrimg
8.1 8.7 Italy (Lira)
6.4 6.3 Canada (Dollar)
6.2 6.1
Latest
Punnd
Jul 73
Aug 73
Jul 73
Aug 73
Aug 73
Jun 73
Jul 73
US $ -
Per Unit Doc 06
0.0038 I 36.48
0.4100 63.09
0.2333
2.4109
0.0018
0.9907
United Kingdom
Italy
15.55
-13.61
10.37
7.40
-18.59
23.10
32.32
-11,77
-35.54
-15.88
3.59
Cumulalivn (Million US $1
1973 1972
Jan-Jul
38,861
31,348
Jan-Aug
19,429
11,818
Jan-Jul
28,016
21,286
Jan-Aug
22,638
18,300
Jan-Aug
21,417
15,821
Jan-Jun
10,720
8,092
Jan-Jill
13.055
10,818
Jan-Jul
-703
-3.858
Jan-Aug
3,202
5,882
Jan-Jul
7,902
4,813
Jan-Aug
814
808
Jan-Aug
-2,7Z8
-879
Jan-Jun
-1,241
776
Jan-Jul
835
7 Sep 73
15.95
-1.00
-0.11
32.13
15.79
-0.73
18.49
5.85
0,58
-7.47
-2.04
-0.42
2.73
-0.17
-0.28
-0.71
-0.70
-0.18
Percent Change from
18 art 71 19 Mar 73 7 Sep 73
-9.04
-2.25
0.08
9.08
-2.98
-0.82
15.27
10.23
-0.80
1.45
-0.98
0.93
-21.29
-8.86
-0.52
-14.47
-7.65
-0.07
-2.94
-1.28
-0.15
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