ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140037-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 21, 2006
• Sequence Number: 37
• Publication Date: October 25, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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becret
L. - k-".' r" i
Be, urn to DSB
1R~ 1107, Bq%
Economic Intelligence 'Weekly
Secret
CIA No. 7825/73
25 October 1973
`- r
Copy No. 1
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Possible Large, Soviet Purchase of US Soybean Meal
USSR to Enrich Uranium for West. Germany
International Monetary Developments
Worldwide Grain Developments
Foreign Growth Trends in 1974 Principal US trading partners,
except for Italy, will experience slower growth next year.
5
The Impact of Increased Oil Prices The trade balances of the United
States, Western Europe, and Japan will suffer, but production will be
little affected.
Arab Oil: Production Cutbacks and Embargoes The Arab oil
cutbacks and embargoes are certain to c;
unti'iue for some time. 9
Comparative Indicators
Recent Data Concerning Domestic and External
Economic Activity Inside Back Cover
tol
I
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ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
Notes
Possible Large Soviet Purchase of US Soybean Meal
High Soviet officials reportedly told a US grain trader in Moscow last
week that they wanted to buy I million to 2 million tons of pelletized
soybean meal during the current crop year at about $180 per ton (including
shipping costs). Negotiations are to begin on 26 October. The deal would
substantially boost the previously expected US exports of soybean cake
and meal of almost '7 million tons during October 1973 to September 1974.
US output of soybean cake and meal for 1973/74 is estimated by USDA
at 18.4 million tons. US export controls on soybean products were lifted
on 1 October, and prices have been settling down during the past weeks.
News of such a dell would begin a price spiral again. (CONFIDENTIAL)
USSR to Enrich Uranium for West Germany
Three West. German utilities have signed uranium enrichment contracts
with the Soviet Union valued at $44 million. The uranium will fuel nuclear
power reactor's accounting for 5% of German power capacity in 1978.
Another firm has obtained an option to purchase at least $64 million worth
of enrichment services from the USSR. If the option is picked up, Moscow
will have pre-empted about 40% of the West German market for uranium
enrichment during 1976-80. Until this year, the United States had a
monopoly on supplying enrichment services to West Germany.
International Monetary Developments
Since 5 October, the dollar has dropped 0.5% to 2.5% relative to the
major European currencies. Contributing to the decline were US
vulnerability to Arab oil and monetary pressures, recent US political
uncertaintie,;, the fall in US interest rates, and renewed pressure on the
European joint float.
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Restrictive Dutch monetary policy has forced up the value of the
guilder and stretched the joint float band to its fullest. Traders are
speculating that the guilder again will be revalued, and the Dutch central
bank has had to provide considerable support to the weaker currencies -
the French and Belgian francs and the Swedish and Norwegian crowns to keep them within the band. This support has helped to strengthen the
weaker band currencies relative to the dollar. (UNCLASSIFIED)
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, P11
World Rice Supplies
World rice output in the current crop year should approach the record
200 million tons of 1969/70. High prices brought an expansion of acreage,
and rainfall has been normal in most of Asia's main rice growing areas.
The expected crop is about 15 million tons larger than last year's, but
rice supplies will remain tight. Exports will be smaller this year than last
year's 7 million to 8 million tons, because countries will need to increase
stocks. Moreover, with consumption rising some 5 million tons annually,
no sizable sustained decline in prices seems likely through mid-1974.
China-Canada-Australia
Worldwide Grain Developments
Peking recently signed agreements with Canada and Australia to hii
wheat during 1974-76. 25X1
ontracts will be signed at
six-month intervals at prevailing prices. At today's prices the two deals
amount to $2.1 billion plus $100 million for shipping.
The agreements with Canada and Australia are aimed at reducing
dependence on the United States, which provided 60% of Chinese grain
imports in 1973. The United States, nevertheless, will continue to be a
major supplier. China's imports are expected to average about 6.5 million
tons annually during 1974-76, of which about 3.5 million tons will be
provided by Canada and Australia. Although France and Argentina can be
expected to meet some of the remaining needs, the bulk seems likely to come from the United States. 25X1
China: Grain Imports, by Calendar Year
1970
1971
19
72 1973 19741
Total
4,632
3,026
4,
844 7,541 4,950
Canada
1,967
3,013
3,8
82 2,450 2,000
Australia
2,218
13
.... 600 1,500
Argentina
....
....
.... 125
France
447
....
.... .... ....
United States
....
....
9
62 4,366 1,450
1. Preliminary; including contracts signed or expected to be signed as of
19 October 1973.
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SIE,CRE'I'
Eastern Europe
Drought in most of Eastern Europe has delayed sonic grain sowing
and retarded germination. Whcat planted after October in the northern
countries will be more susceptible than usual to winter damage. Unless it
rains soon, both the acreage and yields of winter grain, especially wheat,
will be reduced substantial) thus necessitating larger imports in FY 1975.
Izivestia last week published the first official prediction of this year's
Soviet grain harvest -- a gross output of at least 197 million tons. This
compares with 168 million tons last year and the previous record of 18.7
million tons in 1970. Some Soviet officials previously had assessed the crop
cautiously because of wet harvesting conditions. On the basis of reported
yields, we estimate a harvest of 165 million tons of usable grain, equivalent
to a gross harvest as large as 220 million tons. 25X1
Prospects for an excellent fall harvest and expected imports of nearly
4 million tons of foodgrains during the coming months are easing India's
tight food situation. Grain prices have declined in areas where early maturing
crops have beei'i harvested and are beginning to fall in the cities as the
harvest reaches the market. India will continue, however to make small
purchases of foreign grains to rebuild its stocks.
China-Egypt
Although a large net grain importer, China has agreed to provide Egypt
with 100,000 tons of wheat worth at least $20 million. This political move
will meet 3% of Egypt's estimated grain import needs this year. China will
also provide other foodstuffs or hard currency as part of a $30 million
aid package.
The EC has lowered the subsidy for converting wheat to livestock feed,
thereby making available an additional 4 million to 5 million tons of wheat
for human consumption during FY 1974. This move could reduce net wheat
imports from 5 million tons to about 1 million tons, easing the pressure
on US supplies. At the same time, EC requirements for feedgrains and
protein meal will boost demand for US corn and soybeans.
SECRET 25 October 1973
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SECRET
Foreign Growth Trends in 1974
Principal US trading partners, except for Italy, will experience slower
growth next year. Their combined real growth will probably decline from
about 8% in 1973 to about the long-term average of 6% in 1974.
? Despite a slowdown, Japan will continue to grow about twice
as fast as most other developed countries, with private
investment and consumer spending major factors in the
expansion.
? A decline in housing expenditure will be a prominent factor
in the French and Canadian decelerations.
? West German growth is expected to decline, largely because
of a construction downturn.
? Slackening consumer spending will cause British growth to
fall sharply.
? Italy will grow more rapidly as it recovers from its 1970-72
doldrums.
The CIA growth forecasts are fairly similar to those made by the OECD
(see the Table).
Inflation will remain a central problem for our trading partners,
primarily because of monetary expansion and accelerating wage demands.
? In 1974, prices will rise in West Germany, France, the United
Kingdom, and Canada at nearly the 1973 rates - about 6%
to 7%.
? Japanese and Italian inflation probably will slow from 12%
and 11% to about 9%.
Although most are tightening monetary and fiscal controls, fears of
inhibiting economic growth have prevented all but West Germany from
moving decisively. On balance, their policies are neutral or even moderately
expansionary. Additional controls may be imposed, however, if inflation
is not slowed. France reportedly is pressing for an EC-wide wage and price
freeze, probably in the hope that a Community program will arouse less
political opposition at home.
SE( *1 RET 25 October 1973
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SE;CRE
Comparative Real GNP Growth Rate Forecasts
Canada
1973
1974
II
CIA 25X1
Japan
1973
1974
7.3 7.0 6.5
5.3 5.9 5.0-5.5
11.7 9.9 12.0
8.6 9.5 10.0
Francc2
1973 6.3 4.1 6.6
1974 5.7 4.3 5.5
West Germany
1973 6.2 4.5 6.0
1974 3.5 2.3 4.0
Italy
1973
1974
United Kingdom 2
1973
1974
5.6 6.1 4.5
7.5 3.0 5.4
6.8
3.6
6.8
4.0
6.5
3.0
The expected slowdown in the countries' economic growth will not
necessarily hurt the US trade balance, since the US growth rate will also
decline. The trade balance should even be helped by a greater deceleration
of economic growth in the United States than in other developed countries,
by a better US record in curbing inflation, and by the delayed price effects
of the dollar's depreciation. In any case, the US trade position will depend
heavily on other factors, notably price trends for imported oil and
agricultural exports.
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S 1+,C R E'I'
The Impact of Increased Oil Prices
The expected increase in Persian Gulf oil prices of about $1.30 a barrel
will have a substantial impact on the trade balances of' the United States,
Japan, and Western Europe. Assuming that the increases are adopted by
all major oil exporters and that oil deliveries are normal next year, the
oil import bills of the United States and Japan would each increase by
about $3 billion; for Western Europe, the additional cost would approach
$8 billion.
? The oil price rise could eliminate an expected $2 billion to
$3 billion 1974 US trade surplus.
? The Canadian trade balance probably will be little affected;
Canadian oil imports roughly equal exports.
? Japan's expected $6 billion surplus cook' be halved.
? The West Germans could pay an additional cost of about
$1.8 billion - the highest in Europe - but will feel the least
hardship because their 1974 trade surplus will be on the
order of $8 billion.
? The UK deficit could rise from about $3.5 billion to almost
$5 billion.
? The oil import bill of both France and Italy could rise by
about $1.5 billion. This increase would reduce the French
surplus to near zero. Italy would have a deficit of about
$1.5 billion to $2 billion.
The rise in oil prices in the consuming countries will be partly offset
by larger exports to the producers. Only part of the producers' revenue
increase of $15 billion will be spent on imports next year.
Although the oil importers' trade balances will deteriorate sharply, the
domestic impact probably will be slight. Production in the consuming
countries will not be affected materially by the oil price increase. Generally,
the sharp rise in crude oil prices should not lead to large increases in the
price of finished goods because energy costs are a relatively small share
of total manufacturing costs.
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The form in which the oil producers choose to hold their reserves
could have an appreciable impact on the international exchange rate system
and, through it, ultimately on the volume of exports and imports. Despite
the Middle East war, the Arab nations apparently have not engaged in any
substantial dollar selling. Moreover, with the dollar generally recognized as
being undervalued, the Arabs probably will hold most of their increased
future receipts in dollars. This, in turn, couid lead to a strengthening of
the dollar on world exchange markets.
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Total United
Arab OH Producers Exports States
Total Arab 18,600
Percent of Exports 100
Saudi Arabia 8,000
co Percent of Exports 100
ClJ Kuwait 3,100
C) Percent of Exports 100
Libya 2,200
Percent of Exports 100
a Iraq 1,900
Percent of Exports 100
Abu Dhabi 1,150
Percent of Exports 100
Algeria 1,100
Percent of Exports 100
Other Arab 1,150
Percent of Exports 100
West United Communist
Total Germany Kingdom France Italy Netherlands Other Japan Canada Area Other
1,600 11,300 1,650 1,600 2,100 1,750 1,450 2,750 2,300
8.6 66.8 8.9 8.6 11.3 9.4 7.8 14.8 12.4
600 4,350 500 550 600 700 750 1,250 1,250
7.5 54.4 6.2 6.9 7.5 8.8 9.4 15.6 15.6
150 1,750 100 330 300 300 350 350 650
4.8 56.5 3.2 11.3 9.7 9.7 11.3 113 21.0
350 1,700 500 250 150 400 100 300 Negl.
15.9 77.3 22.7 11.4 6.8 18.2 4.6 13.6 Negl.
50 1,300 100 100 400 350 Negl. 350 50
2.6 68.5 53 5.3 21.1 18.4 Neg1. 18.4 2.6
150 600 .... 200 300 .... .... 100 300
13.1 52.2 .... 17.4 26.1 .... .... 8.7 26.1
150 750 250 Negl. 250 .... 50 200 ....
13.6 68.2 22.7 Negl. 22.7 .... 4.6 18.2
150 850 200 150 100 .... 200 200 50
13.1 73.9 17.4 13.0 8.7 .... 17.4 17.4 25X143
150 400 2,850
0.8 2.1 15.3
50 Negl. 1,7150
0.6 Negl. 21.9
Negl. .... 550
Negl. .... 17.1
50 100 ....
2.3 4.5 ....
Negl. 200 300
Negl. 10.5 15.8
50 Negl. 50
4.3 Negl. 43
.... 50 150
.... 4.6 13.6
Negl. 50 50
Negl. 4.3 4.3
1. This table allocates imports on direct and indirect basis - i.e., refined products from export refineries are traced to source of crude oil. The estimates are a yearly average for 1973 and therefore differ
from estimates made at any specific time. For example, US dependence on Arab oil has increased throughout the year and in October is nearly 2 million barrels per day.
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SECRET
Arab Oil: Production Cutbacks and Embargoes
The Arab oil cutbacks and embargoes are certain to continue for some
time. All Arab producers have embargoes against the United States, and
Iraq, Algeria, and Kuwait have :;Iso cut off the Netherlands. Saudi Arabia,
Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, Algeria, and Qatar have announced immediate 10%
production cutbacks to be followed by 5% monthly reductions. Iraq's
production is clown sharply because of extensive damage to its main export
terminal in Syria.
Arab oil production on 30 November could be 4 million b/d less than
in September. Western Europe and Japan, which depend on Arab oil for
70% and 40% of their respective needs, will bear the brunt of the cutbacc.
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cbber
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DOMESTIC ECONOMIC INDICATORS
GNP'
WHOLESALE PRICES
Constant Market Prices rvernee Annual
Growth flute Since
Average Annual
Industrial
Growth Flute Since
Percent Chongu
Latest from Previous I Year Previous
0uarter 0uorter 10111 Earlier Olin ter
Percent Cha^gn
Latest Irnm Previous I Your 3 Months
Month Merrill 1970 Earlier Earlier
United Stales
13 III
0.9
5.0
5,7
3.7
United States
Sap 73
0.5
4,9
7.9
3.8
Japan
73 11
1.4
9.1
13.0
5.9
Japan
Sop 73
1.8
5.7
18.7
20.0
West Gortnani
73 II
-2.3
3.0
0.2
-8.0
West Germany
Sop 73
-0.1
4.7
0.0
1
0
France
73 I
3.3
0.1
5.1
13.0
Franco
Aug 73
1.0
7.1
10.2
.
20
5
United Kinguom
73 II
0.7
4.0
9.5
2.7
United Kingdom
Sop 73
1.1
7.3
7.6
.
13
5
Italy
73 I
0.8
3.1
5.2
3,4
Italy
Jun 73
2.3
7.5
10.2
.
23.2
Canada
73 II
0.9
6.1
0.8
3.7
Canada
Jul 73
2.9
8.3
19.2
25.5
1 Yost 3 Months 1 Month
Representative Rates Latest Date Earlier Earlier Earlier
Prime finance paper
Oct 19
7.75
5.13
8.13
9.00
Japan
Call money
Oct 12
8.75
4.50
7.25
8.50
Interbank loans (3 Months)
Oct 19
14.38
7.12
14.25
14.00
France
Call money
Oct 12
11.13
5.00
8.83
9.12 'Seasonally adiusted
United Kingdom
Local authority deposits
Oct 12
14.44
4.88
6.38
.
13.83 "Average for letn4 3 months compared
Canada
Finance paper
Oct 19
9.00
5.13
7.63
8.75 ' with average for previous 3 months,
Euro?Dollars
Three-month deposits
Oct 19
9.75
5.88
10.88
11.06
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Average Annual
Growth Rota Since
Percent Chongu
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Percent Change
Latest Iran) Previous
I Year 3 Months
United States
Month
Sep 73
Month
0.8
1970
0.0
Earlier
10.2
Earlier ?'
11.4
Unit
ed State
s
Month
Aug 73
Month
1.8
lelll
4.9
Earlier
7.5
Earlier
11
4
Japan
Aug 73
1.1
8.9
17.2
84
Jap
an
Jul 73
0.7
7.3
11.9
.
11
0
West Germany
Jul 73
-4.5
2.2
5.0
-3.7
Wes
t German
y
Aug 73
-0.1
5.8
7.2
.
2.5
France
Aug 73
0
7.7
10.4
9.9
Fran
ce
Aug 73
0.7
6 3
7 6
94
United Kingdom
Aug 73
0.7
3.7
8.2
0
Unit
ed Kingd
om
Sep 73
0.9
8.4
0.3
66
Italy
Jun 73
-1.0
2.9
10.2
26.5
Italy
Jul 73
0.6
7.2
1
12
0
Canada
Aug 73
-3.1
5.6
8.0
1.0
Can
ada
Sep 73
0.6
5.5
8.5
.
11.7
RCTAIL SALES"
Current Prices Average Annual
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latest from Previous I Year 3 Months
Percent Change
Latest from Previous
1 Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier"
Month Month
1970 Earlier Earlier
United States
Sep 73
-0.9
10.5
10.7
9.5
Unit
ed States
Sep 73
-0.3
7.2 I
5.3
5.5
Japan
Jun 73
2.1
12.5
22.6
14.3
Japa
n
Jul 73
-0.6
17.El
32.4
12.7
West Germany
Aug 73
4.2
9.0
4.2
1.2
Wes
t German
y
Jul 73
- 1.7
9.6
4.8
-13.9
Franco
Jun 73
34
6.4
7.2
5.5
Fran
ce
Apr 73
2.6
13.3
141
2.6
United Kingdom
Aug 73
0.7
11.1
12.1
14.8
Unit
ed Kingdo
m
Sep 73
-2.1
10.6
8.5
9.9
Italy
May 73
2.3
11.3
20.4
22.3
Italy
Apr 73
2.8
20.4
19.1
13.7
Canada
Jul 73
3.4
11.3
13.7
1.5
Cana
da
Aug 73
1.5
13.9
15.5
14.0
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EXPORTS'
EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
I.u.b,
Cumulative
Lalesl Month -------
Million US $
Million US $ 1073 1972
United Status
Aug 73
6,004
44,102
31,692
Julian
Sop 73
3,120
25,756
20,105
West Gonr3ny
Aug 73
0,884
42,002
30,100
Franca
Sop 73
3,241
20,742
10,205
United Kingdom
Sap 73
2,504
21,220
10,730
Italy
Jun 73
1,937
9,479
8,808
Cunarla
Jul 73
2,075
13,910
11,252
IMPORTS'
I.u.b.
Million US S
Million US S 1973 1912
United States
Aug 73
0,020
44,081
30,014
Japan
Sap 73
2,725
22,154
13,523
West Germany
Aug 73
4,794
32,010
24,626
Franco
Sop 73
3,001
25,690
10,430
United Kingdom
Sop 73
3,010
24,429
17,941
Italy
Jun 73
2.212
10,726
8,092
Canada
Jul 73
1,949
12,977
10,616
TRADE BALANCE'
f.o.b /l.ab.
Million US $ 1973 1972
United States
Aug 73
-16
-719
-4382
Japan
Sop 73
402
3,604
0,081
West Germany
Aug 73
1,890
9,792
5,540
France
Sop 73
240
1.052
769
United Kingdom
Sop 73
-434
-3,204
-1,203
Italy
Jun 73
-275
-1,241
176
Canada
Jul 73
126
941
835
BASIC BALANCE""
Current and Long-Torm-Capital Transactions
Latest Period
United States'
73 11
Japan
Aug 73
West Germany
Jul 73
France
73 I
United Kingdom
73 I
Italy
72 IV
Canada
73 1
United States
Aug 73
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Million US $ 1973
I -800 I -1,700
-770
136
-576
-995
800
-272
-5,926
1,605
- 576
-995
NA.
-272
1 140 1 16.3
1972
-5,700
1,..57
3,593
-524
-446
2.983
-117
Pen real
EXPORT PRICES
Us $ Average Annual
(inewlh (late Shiro
Latest front Previous I Yen: 3 Menlhs
Change
Month Month 19711 Earlier In hill
39.3
United States
Aug 73
3.9
0.4
22.5
353
27.0
Japan
Jul 73
4.3
12.0
23.0
411,0
41.2
West Germany
Jul 73
12.1
17.1
34.7
117.11
39.2
Franco
Jun 73
9.2
16.5
33.7
51.5
20.6
United Kingdom
Aug 73
0.6
10.5
12.3
11.5
0.0
Italy
Apr 73
0.9
8.2
9.11
24.7
23.7
C,,,nada
Jun 73
-0.0
5.5
10.4
11.0
EXPORT PRICES
National Currency Average Annual
Growth (late Since
I'etceel
l'wcenl Clumge --
Lalesl from Previous I Year 3 Months
Clmugn
Month Month 19711 Earlier Earlier
24.4
United Status
Aug 73
3.9
0.4
22.5
35.7
03.0
Japan
Jul 73
4.2
2.2
8.5
38.1
332
West Germany
Jul 73
3.1
1.6
0.7
5.7
39,3
France
Jun 73
3.8
5.0
13.1
14.6
36.2
United Kingdom
Aug 73
2.0
9.2
10.8
18.6
32.5
Italy
Apr 73
2.0
5.7
10.4
28.0
22.2
Canada
Jun 73
-0.5
4.2
12.0
11.8
IMPORT PRICES
Average Annual
National Currency
Growth note Since
Percent Change
Change
Latest Iron Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Month 19711 Earlier Earlier
3,063
United States
Aug 73
2.1
10.6
20.6
19.2
-3,057
Japan
Jul 73
1.9
0.6
8.0
12.3
4,252
West Germany
Jul 73
- 1.9
-0.5
2.0
-9.2
284
France
Jun 13
0.6
3.1
56
7.3
-2,001
United Kingdom
Aug 73
4.0
13.3
34.1
42.6
-2,017
Italy
Apr 73
3.3
8.5
16.7
49.2
305
Canada
Jun 13
1.1
4.8
10.0
13.4
EXCHANGE RATI S Spot Rat,
As of 19 Oct 73
Change
US $ 1 B Dec 19 Mar 12 Oct
Per Unit Dec 66 1971 1973 1973
4,000
Japan(Yon)
0.0038
36.14
15.68
-1.24
0.08
-7,183
West Germany IMartklche
0.4147
84.96
33.64
17.11
- 0.38
-1
988
France 0rancl
0
2385
18
13
21
13
8
21
0
55
,
-52
lPound
United Kingdom Sterling)
.
2.4380
.
-12.64
.
-6.43
.
-093
.
0.48
-549
Italy (Lira)
0.0018
10.18
2.56
-0.34
-0.34
NA.
Canada (oaear)
1.0015
8.58
0.37
0.38
0.45
-155
TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATES""
As of 19 Oct 73 Percent Change train
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
Unwed Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Dec 66
-19.89
22.39
31.41
-11.12
-35.89
-17.49
4.44
18 Dec
1971
-10.12
8.39
14.35
2.10
-21.60
-16.28
-2.10
19 Mar
1973
-3.34
-3.65
9.31
-0.33
-7.14
-9.44
-0.45
12 Oct
1973
- 0.30
-'0.02
- 0.74
0.45
0.17
-0.49
0.38
"Weighting Is based on each listed country's trade with 18 other Industrialized
countries to reflect the competitive impact of exchange-rate variations
among the major currencies.