Document Type: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
Release Decision: 
Original Classification: 
Document Page Count: 
Document Creation Date: 
December 20, 2016
Document Release Date: 
March 21, 2006
Sequence Number: 
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
November 1, 1973
Content Type: 
PDF icon CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6.pdf1.13 MB
Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6 Secret Economic Intelligence Weekly AGENCY A! . Secret CIA No. 7826/73 1 November 1973 Copy N2 263 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6 25X1 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6 Approved For Release 2006/04/1 %;:1 QlPj F85T00875R001500140038-6 CONTENTS Pi Notes China's First Direct Purchase of US Oil Equipment EC Rigidity Stalls Multilateral Trade Negotiations Economic Impact of the War on Israel Costs cif the fighting to date have not been particularly great, but uncertainties concerning the tinning and nature of a settlement could adversely affect the longer term prospects for the economy. Syria: Costs of the Conflict and Prospects for Recovery Large financial commitments from other Arab countries will help Syria offset the costs of the recent conflict and get its economy back to normal. Availability of Arab. Oil Arab oil cutbacks and embargoes are continuing, but the cease-fire will allow some eastern Mediterranean pipeline deliveries to resume. e Worldwide Grain Developments 6 Chile's Copper Prospects Copper production will play a key role in economic recovery. 7 The United Kingdom: Cooling Off Flagging consumer demand, budget cuts, and restrictive monetary measures portend slower economic growth. Comparative Indicators Recent Data Concerning Domestic and External Economic Activity Inside Back Cover Appendix. Arithmetic of the Recent Oil Price Flikes Inside Back Cover Note: Comments and queries on the contents of this publication are welcomed. They may be directed to Approved For Release 2006/04/ :CGP- P85T00875ROCK6QaMea3a-' Approved For Release 2006/04/19, ~ tAr,85T00875R001500140038-6 ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY Notes China's First Direct Purchase of US Oil Equipment China has contracted with a US firm for $5.6 million worth of petroleum exploration equipment. This is the first direct sale; earlier sales 25X1 have been made through third parties. Additional sales for oil recover technology and drill bits are expected. EC Rigidity Stalls Multilateral Trade Negotiations The first meeting of the GATT Trade Negotiations Committee (TNC) ended ir, deadlock last week because of EC insistence that agricultural discussions be isolated from all other issues. To let preliminary work begin, the United States had been willing to sidestep the issue by allowing the compromise resolution worked out at Tokyo to serve as a guideline for all working groups. Widely supported compromise proposals by Japan and the TNC Chairman also foundered when EC representatives were unable to take a stand even after repeated telephone consultations with Paris. The EC's inability to modify its negotiating positions without recourse to home capitals will be a continuing problem during the long negotiations ahead. I I Approved For Release 2006/04/19 F_a EIIP85T00875ROQ'C 1 ff 03 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 1~1; ffIl??5T00875R001500140038-6 Economic Impact of the War on Israel The effects of' the recent fighting on the Israeli economy have been limited. Israeli statements, for example, that the cost of the war has been $250 million a day and $2 billion in the first week of' the war seem exaggerated. The Israelis appear to have lumped together the direct and indirect military costs of the war, the economic costs (including the value of lost output), and loss of' foreign exchange earnings. In the civilian economy, Israeli officials estimate the costs of lost production. to be about $14 million a day, or nearly $300 million for the three weeks of the war. Some production cuts were felt immediately after the war started, when mobilization and the loss of Arab workers had reduced the civilian labor force of 1.2 million by roughly 25%. The impact of this reduction, however, was later partly offset by the hiring of youths and women and the employment of foreign volunteers. Reductions in demand for non-essential goods and services and a drop in civilian construction also contributed to the drop in output. Israel was in a sound financial position at the outbreak of hostilities. Despite a large deficit in its goods and services account, the balance-ot=payments position was favorable. Foreign exchange reserves totaled close to $1.5 billion in September. Even with the war, the balance of payments should end the year in surplus. The deterioration in the trade and services account, excluding direct military imports, will be more than compensated by an increase in contributions from abroad. The government expects to raise almost $2.0 billion from foreign sources -$750 million from a new development bond issue, and the remainder from world Jewry. Israel also expects to raise about $600 million domestically by issuing both compulsory and voluntary bonds and by cutting the development budget. 2 Approved For Release 2006/04/1YF&i 1 P85T00875ROMVMb9Li$ 3 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6 .Is 14"("R E,1' It is difficult to estimate the longer term impact of the war on Israel's economy. It is not clear how fast civilian production will resume or how domestic demand may react to the settlement terms. The economic boom following the six-clay war in 1967 came at a time when the economy was depressed. In contrast, the Israeli economy in early October 1973 was operating at near-capacity and experiencing rapid inflation. If protracted negotiations should preclude a rapid demobilization, output would continue at depressed levels and severe domestic belt-tightening would become necessary. Approved For Release 2006/04/1iICI UdP85T00875R0b 1i4O.O389?3 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6 Syrian Facilities Damaged In Recent Hostilities G I Powerplant i Pactory TURKEY POL storage + Airport CU Port ,1/ -- Iskenderun La.kl. ? t' e.nlyn. Mediterranean (b Ta,IYs e~ sea T I Hams SYRIA r i LEBANON Beirut* ISSAEl. Tel/Aviv- rele ( WEST a ? BANK t+ L t Damascus t 1' ?A. Suw.1 d. 0.r,. 0 MILES 50 JORDAN 554838 11-73 CIA Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6 StsCRE7' Syria: Costs of the Conflict and Prospects for Recovery Syria has sustained severe losses in military equipment and economic assets as a result of the current conflict. The direct and indirect costs of the war and its aftermath probably will approach $1 billion, roughly equivalent to halt of Syria's annual output. The oil-rich Arab states will more than cover these losses, helping to restore normal growth. The Syrian economy sustained large but by no means crippling damage. We estimate direct damage to industrial sites and roads, railroads, bridges, and communication facilities to be $225 million. The petroleum storage areas at Hims, Baniyas, Latakia, and Tartus were hard hit, as were the powerplants in Damascus and Hims, which account for well over one-half of Syria's electric power capacity. Contrary to some earlier reporting, the country's only oil refinery at Hims was not destroyed, although it was rendered inoperable by damage to nearby power and storage facilities. Production losses and curtailed revenues from oil transit fees and exports could reach $250 million. Because port damage was minimal, the loss in export earnings probably will not exceed $100 million this year. Direct losses in military equipment amounted to at least $200 million. Damage was inflicted on a number of Syrian military installations. Combined, these losses would total less than $400 million. it seems highly likely that other Arab states will provide enough aid to cover Syria's economic and military losses. In addition, the Arab countries have been assisting Syria with various forms of economic assistance, including the supply of badly needed petroleum, food, medicines, and medical teams. Economic recovery will be aided by the lack of damage to agriculture, which supplies much of Syria's national output. Syria had either harvested or sown most of its major crops before the war began. Although the 1973 wheat crop was well below earlier record levels, food supplies appeared to be good throughout the hostilities. Disruptions in supply and transportation should gradually be overcome, and industrial cutbacks caused by direct damage or power losses probably will be restored by early 1974. Approved For Release 2006/04/193 K4AMq85TOO875 ROOIWAR 173 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6 Sh,CRE'1' Availability of Arab Oil Arab oil cutbacks and embargoes are continuing, but the cease-fire has improved the supply situation for southern Europe Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, which account for 60% of Arab oil exports, initially announced 10'/% reductions in oil production.) Both have since made additional cuts equal to the amount of their dirc-.t and indirect exports to the United States. Kuwait has further reduced its production by an amount equal to its normal exports to the Netherlands. As a result, Saudi and Kuwaiti production in November will be about 251 less than in September. Libya, in contrast, has reduced production by only 5% and is not embargoing shipments to Caribbean and Italian refineries that serve the US market. Moreover, Libyan National Oil Company sales are not restricted as to destination. According to oil minister Otaiba, Abu Dhabi needs to maximize its revenues and production. Although it is embargoing shipments to the United States and the Netherlands, it is not cutting back production. As long as this policy continues, the oil companies can divert non-Arab oil to the United States and replace it with Abu Dhabi oil. Eastern Mediterranean pipeline terminals in Syria and Lebanon, which normally supply Western Europe with about 2 million b/d -- 13% of its supply - will soon be back to their usual level. The Lebanon terminals exporting about 1 million b/d of Iraqi and Saudi crude oil are expected to resume normal operations this week. The Trans-Israeli pipeline, which supplies Europe with about 400,000 b/d, probably will resume exporting soon. The Syrian terminal of Baniyas (about 700,000 b/d), which was damaged by air attacks, will be closed for four to six weeks and then resume activity at one-half capacity. 1. For tables on oil price increases, see the Appendix. Approved For Release 2006/04/19SEG-M85T00875ROOjWW 81673 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6 ,S I'C R L' I ' Worldwide Grain Developments Brezhnev announced last week that the grain harvest would yield a gross output of more than 215 million tons - almost 18 million tons more than the previous Soviet estimate. On the basis of yields reported so far, we recently estimated a gross output of as much as 220 million tons, equivalent to some 165 million tons of usable grain Worldwide Wheat The International Wheat Council is becoming more optimistic about the world market situation in FY 1974. Its latest assessment puts the difference between wheat export availability and import requirements at between a 2 million ton deficit and a 5 million ton surplus. A month earlier, the Council had forecast a 6 million ton deficit. The new estimate reflects higher-than-expected output in the EC, Australia, and Canada and prospects that less wheat will be fed to animals in the EC. The record grain crop recently announced by the USSR obviously calls for further upward revision of the Council's estimate. China-Syria China has agreed to donate about 12,000 tons of wheat worth about $2 million to Syria. Delivery of the wheat, representing about 5% of Syria's annual grain import needs, is expected in late November. This marks the second time in recent weeks that China, a major wheat importer, has used wheat exports for political purposes. Earlier, China agreed to provide E y t with 100,000 tons of wheat, probably also as a grant. Last week the EC lifted the ban on rice exports and replaced it with a high export levy. Italy, the EC's only exporter, had been trying to get the ban removed since September so it could sell some 300,000 tons of rice from its bumper harvest at the current high world prices. The new export levy probably will keep most of Italy's surtflus rice within Community. 25X1 Approved For Release 2006/04/1 t hV*FgP85T00875ROq'1~50014$03 ovem er M3 25X1 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6 SEX.f&E.I Chile's Copper Prospects Chilean copper production in 1973 is expected to he around 650,000 to 670,000 tons -- about 8/ below the 1972 level -- and earn about $ I . I billion in foreign exchange. Improved worker discipline and better mine m agement can be expected to increase production during 1974 to as much as 750,000 tons, which would be a record production level. Also, a large amount of copper concentrate in the form of' converter cleanings at Chuquicamata could earn an additional $50 million or so in return for a relatively small investment in transportation facilities. As the primary source of foreign exchange earnings, copper production will play a key role in the juntas attempts to bring Chile out of economic chaos. Substantial expansion of production will depend on Chile's ability to attract investment and new expertise. To this end, Santiago is tryin to rear,; some sort of accommodation with maior US comnanicc. Approved For Release 2006/04/19$9'(A(R6P85T00875R001~5j ~~~-~~73 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6 Fueled by the rapid rise in INSTALLMENT CREDIT- - 0 L__ --- Long-Term Trend Long-Term UK RETAIL SALES have soared. 140 (~ 11963 100 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION has leveled off- - INSTALLMENT CREDIT OUTSTANDING 1963-100 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Long-Term Trend Coal Strike but JOB VACANCIES remain at all-time highs. Thousand Vacancies Long-Term Trend 11111111111 1972 1973 Aug Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6 Approved For Release 2006/04/1,: 1 C~II~ QF85T00875R001500140038-6 The United Kingdom: Cooling Off For once, the Brilish economy ranks near the top of Western Europe's growth list, but a marked slowdown is indicated for 1974. Strains on productive capacity are increasing, and the Ileath government may feel compelled to supplement Stage III of its anti-inflation program with a more restrictive monetary policy - especially if it hopes to see price rises curbed before the next election. The trade (Ieficit, which will amount to more than $4.0 billion this year and remain large in 1974, may encourage the government to further restrain monetary expansion. Expansionary budgets in 1972 and 1973, combined with rapidly increasing hank lending, fostered a consumption-led boom. Gross domestic product in the first half of 1973 was T%, higher than in the first half' of 1972; retail sales were 14`%o higher; and export volume was up about 13`/x. Rising installment credit fueled retail sales, while the sterling devaluation sparked the export boom. Signs of flagging demand, however, are increasing. Growth of consumer outlays, which rose at an annual I01/o rate in the first quarter, probably has already peaked. Much of the first quarter rise resulted from purchases anticipating the value-added tax introduced on I April. Private consumption expenditures in the third quarter fell below the average for the first half, as rising prices and wage restraints began to bite into demand. Budget cuts announced last May and a recent directive to banks to cut personal credit except for housing will further cool demand in the coming months. After rising steeply during 1972 and the first quarter of 1973, industrial production has leveled oft'. Plant utilization has reached 94%, one of the highest rates in Western Europe, and the labor market is still tight. Unemployment -- at 2.3% of the labor force in mid-October, compared with 3.5`%% it year earlier -- is at its lowest since the Tories took office, and job vacancies are at their highest since 1951. The government has been hoping that rising investment would make the boom self-sustaining. Fixed investment in manufacturing -- in its first upturn since 1970 -- increased No in the first half of 1973 over the previous six months, and recent business surveys indicate that most companies plan to expand capacity further. Inventories, however, were rebuilt rapidly in the first half of 1973, and, if consumer spending decelerates abruptly, the upsurge of investment may not continue. With the economy cooling, imports are expected to rise less rapidly next year. As world demand declines, export growth also should slow, but less severely. The government had hoped that these changes and more Approved For Release 2006/04/ gtAIf 6P85T00875Rd0g86bT~66ig-V Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6 United Kingdom: Balance of Payments '72 Current account balance -73 475 -3 55 173 -840 -420 .8502 Of which: Trade balance -542 -73 -8 10 -278 -1,286 -931 -1.366 Long-term capital balance -428 -596 -3 06 -906 -248 159 N.A. Basic balance -501 -122 -6 61 -733 -1,087 -261 NA. Short-term capital, including errors and c.nissions 649 -2,588 4 67 263 1,2543 1,2153 N.A. Official settlements balance 148 -2,710 -1 93 -470 1. Not seasonally adjusted. 2. OER estimate. 3. Including capital transfers. WHOLESALE PRICES continued to climb even faster than RETAIL PRICES during Stage II. I STAGE''I STAGE II 100 L~l__1_L__I I I_ I I I R I =' l I I" ':1 I I I I I I I _J J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 1972 1973 25X1 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 c p~A & 85T00875R001500140038-6 favorable terms of would reduce the trade deficit, which in 1973 will amount to $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion. The recent increases in .,il prices will cut into tlu hoped-I'or improvement by adding some 31/0 to total import value next year, assuming that the volume of oil imports is about the same as in 1073. 't'hrough the third quarter of 1973, the trade deficit has been covered by official borrowing overseas, short-term capital inflows. and continued growth in net receipts from services and transfer payments. Anticipating a continuing need to finance trade deficits through increased capital inflows, London is relaxing some regulations affecting borrowing abroad. The trade deficit and continued rapid inflation have already encouraged the government to restrain monetary expansion. Up nearly 17% in 1972, the money supply has risen at an annual rate of about 1 l%/o this year. The Bank of England in July called for 1 170 of commercial bank deposits to be frozen, and it subsequently boosted its minimum lending rate to the market to more than 11%. In September, banks were told to cut back on less essential lending. The Governor of the Bank of England has said that he will take additional steps if growth of the money supply does not slow even more. The wage and price controls introduced in November 1972 clearly have had little impact. In September, consumer prices were up by 0.9% from August and 9.3'%o from a year earlier. Under Stage II, in effect since early this year, the government was able to curtail wage increases, a major source of pressure on prices. Price increases for imported raw materials, however, kept consumer prices moving upward at a brisk pace. Wholesale prices continued to climb even more steeply. In the first seven months of 1973, wholesale prices of basic materials and fuels purchased by manufacturing industry - products with a heavy import content - rose 24%, compared with the same period a year earlier. Under Stage III, starting today, controls on wages and prices are being loosened. Even if the labor unions comply with the official guidelines, wages will go up at least 10% in 1974 and add to inflationary pressures, because a sizable gain in productivity is unlikely. Moreover, a broader definition of allowable costs could permit price increases larger than under Stage H. I I Approved For Release 2006/04/1 ~ ECTA=N 85T00875ROb4ttfflbbr3b 3 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6 DOMESTIC ECONOMIC INDICATORS wlI(lLISl1II I'IIIC(S nii.11101 Ihrnllnl I 1~ mlLrI IVI Illd.II?i I I~.I I"AIllll, Ilnlted 'il 1113 11 III n'I h! :1/ lJnued Slate'; Sep /3 'I 9 I .1 / 'I I rlhrr 3 3{ a IdILIII 1111 1133 'r'I Jap.U1 'Sell /:I 51 181 71333 Wlr3 liulmdl y 1'1 II It r{ it West Germany Sup 13 41 88 10 I1? IIJe l'I 11 II / 81 7!I 11 1111:13 Aug 13 1) 181 71) !3 11tiomI Kingdom 1.1 11 Il l 11 United Kingdum Sep !3 . 1 IL,lly 1:1 1 It !1 7 3 4 IIII ly Aug 13 . 84 19'1 I 1/: CjllmlLl I:) II 1) !1 lib :I / Canada Jul 13 83 191 255 AUrl q.- An 1,,.11 ..~ ,?n. Allllll,ll Glnwih IIJIY Sm' 11111 I M11unls r?vnt Chdnlpr 111, 1 Irum fIrevums ' Ir,v 3 Months Il i S I I L ~ r Mown Moor] !Ihl EdIIIP' IafW!, ii v 1.IIr; nn Illl I t 4 United States Sell 73 0.3 49 74 197 .3 131 111 Japan Sup 73 7 it 82 146 ' 195 Wusl (; h Illy. 11,1 11 !r I I West Gerlll;Illy Aug 13 it I 5 1) 7 1b Auy /:1 ii 111 4 9!I France. Srp 13 0 !1 6 4 19 9/ United Knn)nm Auq 1:1 nl 8! 11 United Kingdom Sep 13 t) 9 84 93 138 Italy A I /:1 I., !I 1!13 Italy Aug /:1 013 7.2 117 85 I, III.1111 Auq % 1 811 I8 Canada Sep 13 06 55 85 II /' Ammdl lirnwIll liit Sunr Avlvalp' Annual 0,owth Hale Snu:r I'1'll I'III (. h?I II II I' I Mnnlhs l II I 311111 I'rnvuuls I Yna1 :1 Months Mnnn, w I ,IIn~I f ?u her ?? M I t Mnnth !I/II United Sl 1113.~ Srp ! I I'1 11111 101 95 Unit ed States Sep 7:1 -113 7'1 c;{ f,uher 55 J 131.111 .,3,333 / I 7 I 171 143 Jap an Jul 3 r i'? 1111 177 I I I 1.2 Wes t German y Jul 13 - 1 1 90 48 139 3141d.e 'J~rn /.1 I4 3,4 !!r Fran ce Ali; 13 1.1 ) 13 United Kingdom Auq la i m / Il l 17 1 348 Unit ed Kingd om Srp 13 / I 106 8 !I 99 Ita1v May /3 7 3 11 3 2114 22.3 Italy Apt 13 2 8 111 4 191 1;3 1 I;?madd 11,1 1:1 J 4 113 13 7 1.5 Can ada Aug 73 1 5 139 1 5.5 14.6 I Year ;1 Months I hIt1 IWI I ?1111 IIII. Earlier ['Iffier 1(111113/ Stalls Pnme hnance paper 70 Oct l 88 5 13 8.13 8 50 .I.Ipa11 Call money I!1 Oct It 7!i 4 ;18 725 8 75 Wesl (ielnlJny Interbank loans( IMonth':I 213 Oct 14 2!i 112 14 25 1375 France Cl)) ntnriuy 20 Oct I I l5 5 88 8 38 10 75 1)11131!/ Knnldnnl Inl:al authnrdy deposits 26 Oct 12 91 4 82 10 38 13 13 'Seasonally adjusted. " 1111111 1 Ilance 31,131111 78 Oct 9 00 5 13 7 63 815 Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months. [Ill) UuII,lrs Three month dl!pnslts 7P) Oct 9 38 594 11.19 1038 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6 EX POHJS? fill) United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada IMPORTS' fill) United Status Japan West Germ ny France United Kingdom Italy Canada TRADE BALANCE' f(l) /fu h United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS Mdllan US $ Suit 13 6.448 Still /3 :1.1211 Sup 13 6.2)18 Sup /3 3.141 Su(. 13 2,584 Aug /3 1.11!1() Jul 13 2.11/6 Sup 73 Scp 13 Sup /3 Sap 13 Sep 13 Aug /3 Jul 13 Million US S 5.575 2.125 4.435 311(11 3.(118 2.31 1 1.94!) Sap 73 Sep 73 Sep 13 Sep 13 Sep 13 Aug 13 Jul 73 Million US $ B73 Million US $ I'ulcnnl 11)13 1912 Change 50,610 35,869 411 25.158 28,165 11 ( 48,869 34,034 43.6 2(1,142 19 206 :1!1 2 1,226 111.139 21/ 11 3 469 11.699 134 1,;,!118 11,252 23.1 Million US S Nicoll] 1913 HI? Change 50.456 48.6791 24.0 12 1 54 13 573 li:1 8 31,245 21.8)15 33.9 25 690 18.436 .19 J 24.429 11.941 36 2 15(114 10.996 37 I 12.917 10,616 22.2 1973 1972 154 1 -4.810 40.2 3.604 1.832 11.624 741) 1.1152 - 434 -3,21)4 427 1.564 126 941 6.061 6,228 769 1.203 903 635 Change 4,964 -3.051 5.396 284 7.0(11 -2.488 305 BASIC BALANCE" Current and Long-Term Capital Transactions latest Period Cumulative /Million US SI United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada Million US S 1973 1972 7311 -800 - 1.700 -5,700 Aug 13 -770 -5.926 1.257 Jul 73 136 1605 3 593 131 -576 -576 -524 73 1 -995 - 995 -4413 72 IV 8110 NA 2.983 731 -272 -272 -117 United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada End of Sep 73 Sep 13 Aug 73 Sep 73 Sap 73 Jul 73 Sep 73 Billion US S Jun 1970 1411 1 16.3 148 37 '1 99 64 57 55 4.1 88 4.4 2d 47 4.3 I Year Earlier 13.2 16.5 24.6 160 61 6.5 6.2 Cha,0n) e 40 -7.183 1.988 -52 -549 NA. -155 3 .Mmllhs Car her 14.0 152 32 102 10 6.4 6.0 EXPORT PRICES US S United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada EXPORT PRICES National Currency United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada IMPORT PRICES National Currency United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada AvetagII Annual Growth Italy Since Percent Change --- -' - -- _ -- - Latest hum Previous I Yuan 3 Months Month Merrill 1910 Earlier Earlier Aug 13 39 84 22 5 357 Jul 13 4 3 12 8 23 6 400 Aug 73 2 / 15 6 32 3 76 2 Jun 73 92 155 337 51 Aug 7:1 06 105 123 11!1 Jun 13 79 92 I 12 9 2 Jun 73 -0.6 5 b 10.4 1 1.8 Average Annual Growth (late Since I'ercenl Change ------ latest Ircnl Pruviuus Merrill Month Aug 73 1 Jul 73 Aug 73 Jun 73 Aug 73 Jun 73 Jul 73 39 4.2 -)9 38 2.0 2.5 0.5 Pelcerl Change - latest fruit It uvmus Month Month Aug 73 Jul 73 Aug 73 Ju?r 73 Aug 73 Jun 73 Jun 73 EXCHANGE RATES Spot Rate As of 26 Oct 73 JapanlYenl West Germany (Martklche France (rlanc) IPuund United Kingdom Sterling) Italy (lira) Canada (ouear) US S Per Unit .003d 0.4113 0.2369 2.4370 0.0018 1.0049 Dec 66 36.46 63.60 17.34 -12.67 10.06 8.94 I Year 19111 Earlier 84 22.5 2.2 85 09 -08 56 131 92 10.8 6.6 13.1 4.2 12.0 3 MonUls Cur nor 35.7 38 I 44 14 6 186 26.9 11.8 Average Annual Growth Rate Since 1970 10.6 06 -02 3.1 13.3 10.8 4R i Year Earlier 20.6 80 26 56 34.1 24.8 10.6 3 Months Earlier 19.2 12.3 9,1 7.3 42.6 54 4 13.4 18 Dec 1971 15.95 32.55 20.31 -6.47 2.44 0.71 19 Mar 1973 -1.00 16.15 7.49 -0.98 -0.45 0.72 19 Oct 1913 0.24 - 0.82 - 0.67 - 0.04 0.11 0.34 As of 26 Oct 13 United States Japan West Germany France United Kingd '^t Italy Canada Dec 66 -19.67 22.70 30.80 -11.37 -35.64 -17.16 4.83 18 Dec 1971 -10.11 8.69 13.78 1.84 -21.37 - 15.97 - 1.72 19 Mar 1913 -3.33 -3.36 8.75 O.P7 -6.93 -9.13 - 0.07 19 Oct 1973 0.0! 0.29 -0.55 -0.26 0.21 0.30 0.38 ' "Converted SsesonNly adjusted. -Weighting is based on each listed country's trade with 16 other industrialized Nov Intppdollars roved PorI~elease ` etl'~'/04/19 : CIA-Rq o sge1~b'6i1n Bl3Sb61oe-rate variations I Nov 73 3 pp Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6 S11;CI(E,I' Arithmetic of the Recent Oil Price 1-likes On 16 October the Persian Gulf members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced a unilateral 70% increase in posted prices for crude oil. This action was followed quickly by large posted price increases in Libya and Venezuela. The following tables show the relationship between the posted prices and the estimated actual sales prices. F7 I 99 SECRET I November 1973 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6 SE,C:RE I' A-2 }, RR I November 1973 Approved For Release 2006/04/ 9`:~TA'-F7IP85T00875R001500140038-6 Approved For Release 2006/04/19'~ 'c iA'RbX85T00875R001500140038-6 (UNCLASSIFIED) SECRET 1 November 1973 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6