ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140039-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 13, 2008
• Sequence Number: 39
• Publication Date: November 8, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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Secret
Economic Intelligence Weekly
On file Department of Commerce release
instructions apply.
04. State Dept. review
completed
Secret
CIA No. 7827/73
8 November 1973
Copy N2 177
25X1
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SECRET
Venezuela Assures Oil for the United States
Portugal Embargoed by Arab Producers
Latin American Energy Organization
EC CAP Revisions
New EC Offer on Article XXIV:6 Expected
Arab Oil Cutbacks Arab oil exports will be cut some 30% by
year-end.
Page
Worldwide Grain Developments
Argentina: Pressure on US Firms US trade policy with Cuba creates
problems for subsidiaries in Argentina.
The Dollar Strengthens on Currency Markets Arab oil cutbacks spur
a large dollar advance on the foreign exchange market.
Soviet Oil Problems Inference of a Soviet oil crisis at the present
time is exaggerated, although production problems are worsening.
Comparative Indicators
Recent Data Concerning Domestic and External
Economic Activity
Inside Back Cover
Note: Comments and queries on the contents of this publication arc welcomed.
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SE,CRE7'
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
Notes
Venezuela Assures Oil for the United States
Venezuela has assured the United States that it will continue to be
a secure source of oil. Any attempt to take royalties in the form of
petroleum instead of cash would not be at the expense of exports to the
United States. In exchange, Venezuela expects technical assistance in the
development of the Orinoco Tar Belt and a secure source of reasonably
priced agricultural products.
Portugal Embargoed by Arab Producers
The Arab states reportedly have embargoed oil shipments to Portugal.
This move had been expected because of Lisbon's cooperation with the
United States in the resupply of Israel. It will not cause Portugal any
problems even though the country normally receives about 85% of its oil
supply from Arab sources. Although the Fuel Board's claim that Portugal
had a 90-day stock on 1 October may be exaggerated, its stocks and the
15 days' supply en route should give Lisbon ample time to divert Angolan
oil to the home country. Angola produces about 145,000 b/d, compared
with. Portuguese needs of only about 90,000 b/d. The diversion of Angolan
oil now exported to Japan, the United States, Brazil, Spain, and other
countries will not seriously affect their supplies.
Latin American Energy Organization
Representatives of 22 Latin American and Caribbean countries,
including Cuba, voted last week to create a Latin American Energy
Organization. The agreement, which becomes effective when ratified by 12
of the signatory nations, is aimed at developing and conserving the area's
energy resources. Latin American oil exporters probably were under
considerable pressure at the meeting to assure supplies to the importers,
possibly at preferential prices. Venezuela opposes preferential prices but
has offered other help such as cooperation in developing energy resources.
Yielding to French pressure, the EC Commission has proposed revisions
in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) that include subsidies for soybean
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production. The proposal also calls for increased support prices for feed
grains and lower ones for wheat. US sales could benefit from reduced
competition from EC wheat growers but will be hurt by the feed grain
and soybean proposals. The subsidies could eventually result in EC soybean
plantings of 500,000 to one million acres, according to the French Ministry
of Agriculture. Such plantings would cut US so bean sales to the EC by
an estimated $75 million to $150 million.
New EC Offer on Article XXIV:6 Expected
The EC's foreign ministers agreed Tuesday on the major part of
proposed tariff concessions to compensate non-EC countries for trade losses
resulting from Community enlargement. The formal offer, which may be
made by the end of the month, will include concessions on trucks and
plywood and probably on kraft paper and citrus as well - all items of
interest to the United States. It nevertheless probably will fall considerably
short of US demands. Quantitative tariff reductions are likely to be less
than desired by Washington, and no concessions on cereals are being offered.
The EC apparently intends to present the offer as its final position.
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SI?,C' R ET
Major Arab oil cutbacks as of 7 November 1973 ----
Thousand Barrels per Day
Saudi Ku- Abu Al-
Arabia wait Libya Iraq Dhabi geria Qatar Oman Dubai Total
September production
(actual) 8,600 3,500 2,300 2,000 1,400 1,050 600 300 300 20,050
Oct9ber production
(estimated)1 8,000 3,000 2,200 1,7002 1,400 1,050 580 300 2003 18,430
Decrease from September
Volume 600 500 100 300 .... .... 20 .... 100 1,620
Percent 7 14 4 15 .... 3 33 8
New OAPEC production
plan for Novcmber4 6,450 2,625 1,725 1,500 1,050 790 450 225 225 15,040
Decrease from September
Volume 2,150 875 575 500 350 260 150 75 75 5,010
Percent 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
New OAPEC production
plan for Decembers 6,125 2,500 1,650 1,425 1,000 750 425 210 210 14,295
Decrease from September
Volume 2,475 1,000 650 575 400 300 175 90 90 5,755
Percent 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29
Measured against the production that previously had been expected for December, the cutbacks are
still larger
Pre-cutback planned
December production6
Production shortfall
due to cutbacks
9,800 3,800 2,300 2,200 1,500 1,100 650 300 300 21,950
Volume 3,675 1,300 650 775 500 350 225 90 90 7,655
Percent 38 34 28 35 33 32 35 30 30 35
1. October production based on normal growth during first 17 days of the month and uneven application of OAPEC
resolution for remainder of the month; the members of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC)
are Abu Dhabi, Algeria, Bahrain, Dubai, Egypt, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Syria.
2. Production reduced as a result of war damage to export facilities.
3. Dubai production reduced by offshore well fire.
4. On 4 November, OAPEC agreed to a 25% production cutback in November based on September production.
5. OAPEC plan to reduce an additional 5% in December, based on November production.
6. Company forecasts where available; otherwise, OER estimate.
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S l?',C R E]'
The decision to cut production taken at the meeting of Arab oil
ministers in Kuwait or. 4 November means that Arab oil exports by the
end of December will be some 5.3 million b/d, or 29%, below the
September level, if the plan is adhered to by all participants. Before the
war started, average December production was expected to be
1.9 million b/d above the September level. Taking into account expected
increases in Arab oil production that will not now occur, average production
in December will be 7.7 million b/d below the level previously expected.
The new formulation strengthens King Faysal's leadership role by
committing the other producers to match his cutback. Saudi Arabia and
Kuwait, which account for 60% of Arab oil exports, had already cut
production by about 25%. Libya had made only a symbolic cutback, and
Algeria, Iraq, and Abu Dhabi had not cut production. Iraq, however, refused
to sign the Kuwait agreement. Libya and Algeria, who argued in the meeting
for moderation, probably will not implement the agreement, but Abu Dhabi
has.
Under the new agreement, Turkey, Brazil, and the 18 African states
that have broken relations with Israel were added to the list of friendly
countries that will receive oil equal to their average imports during the
first nine months of this year. France, the United Kingdom, Spain, and
a number of Muslim states were already on this list. Portugal and South
Africa were added to the United States and the Netherlands on the
embargoed list.
In addition to their losses resulting from the production catbacks. all
countries will lose any expected increases in imports. Although the United
States is not affected by these new cuts, having been totally embargoed
earlier, it will lose something on the order of 500,000 b/d of expected
growth during the winter months. Thus, the US import shortfall will increase
to some 2.5 million b/d.
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SECRE']'
Japanese Imports
Percent
Jan-Aug 1973 Increase above
(Million US $) Jan-Aug 1972
United
U
nited
States
Total S
tates
Total
Total
5,783
23,415
52
59
Foodstuffs
1,603
4,105
101
61
Raw materials
2,029
13,275
61
59
Chemicals
416
1,062
62
47
Machinery and equipment
1,169
2,130
14
23
Other
566
2,843
25
107
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SE,CRE'J'
INDEX: 1961=100
100 r------
Indexes of Labor Earnings, Productivity,
and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing
INDEX: 1970=100
130 r--
Labor Productivity
Unit Labor Costs
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SI',C1(L'I'
Worldwide Grain Developments
Egypt
Egypt's wheat position is much stronger now than before the war,
when a purchase of 1.5 million tons was being sought from the Ui:ited
States and when renewal of the annual I million ton wheat agreement with
Australia appeared likely to founder over credit terms. Arab aid now permits
Egypt to meet Australia's payment demands. This wheat, the 450,000 tons
purchased from Romania, the 100,000 ton gift from China, and stocks equal
to five months of consumption will carry Egypt until the harvest next May.
Argentina
Argentina's December wheat harvest will be much smaller than last
year. Export availability of wheat in 1974 will be as low as 700,000 tons,
compared with about 3.2 million tons this year. As a result, corn exports
will be emphasized to avoid balance-of-payments problems. F
European donations of wheat to Chile continue to lag. West Germany
is close to shipping 15,000 tons, but the EC and France are delaying
shipments of 20,000 tons and 10,000 tons, respectively, because of the
junta's political repression. The United States has thus far provided $24
million in CCC credits for about 120,000 tons of wheat exports to Chile
and is considering financing 250,000 tons of corn.
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SE(.;RG'1'
Argentina: Pressure on US Firms
US subsidiaries in Argentina may be forced to trade with Cuba. In
August, Buenos Aires granted Cuba a $200 million a year line of credit
to finance exports. Among the items covered by the agreement are
transportation and agricultural equipment produced by subsidiaries of Ford,
General Motors, Chrysler, Goodyear, Clark Equipment, and John Deere.
Legislation is being drafted to set progressively larger export quotas for
passenger cars during a four-year period, and penalties in the form of
restrictions on domestic sales would be levied for failure to meet these
quotas.
US firms generally have stalled on response to Cuban enquiries because
they have been unable to get definitive guidance on current US trade control
policies toward Cuba. pressure from labor
and the bureaucracy indicates that Buenos Aires is prepared to force
the issue. Each US automobile subsidiary recently received formal written
requests for quotations from a Cuban purchasing mission in Argentina.
Failure to respond satisfactorily to such requests may be used by the
Argentine government and press as evidence of the companies' violation
of Argentine laws prohibiting sales discrimination.
In addition to legal restraints, the government could withhold import
licenses, construction permits, and local credit; engage in tax persecution;
and sponsor labor unrest. If the Cuban sales issue is not resolved shortly,
US investments in Argentina in excess of $300 million could be seriously
jeopardized.
9
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PERCENT CHANGE SINCE 2 JANUARY 1073
IN THE VALUE OF THE US DOLLAR
RELATIVE TO SELECTED FOREIGN CURRENCIES
Chango In the Trade Weighted Average
Value of ,the Dollar'
British Pound
?a.wIM to ie myw o.rr.,KS.,
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S I~"(; It E'1'
The Dollar Strengthens on Currency Markets
The dollar made exceptional advances in international money markets
this week, despite heavy central bank intervention to slow its rise. Since
1 November, it has appreciated by an average of 4% relative to the European
currencies and 3`/0 relative to the yen. The Bank of Japan sold around $800
million to support the yen, while other central banks sold about
$200 million to : upport their currencies. The dollar has now recovered
nearly two-thirds of the value lost earlier this year.
The immediate cause of the rush into dollars in Western Europe is
fear over the future impact of the Arab oil cutbacks. A growing
apprehension that the Arab moves will cause greater hardship for Europe
than for the United States apparently sparked widespread liquidation of
foreign currency holdings, particularly of marks acquired months ago as
a hedge against dollar depreciation. In Japan, continuing heavy commercial
dollar demand for imports and foreign investment was largely responsible
for the dollar's appreciation. The value of the dollar has been climbing
since its low point in early July. The most important factor in the dollar's
longer term strength is the rising confidence produced by the improving
US trade balance. Another factor has been the narrowing of interest rate
differentials between the United States and foreign countries.
Confidence in the dollar has also been evidenced by developments in
the forward and two-tier markets. Forward exchange rate differentials,
which had widened sharply during the currency instability of June and July,
have gradually narrowed. In those countries that have two-tier markets -
France, Belgium, and Italy - the financial rate, the rate not supported by
the government, has been falling more quickly relative to the dollar than
the commercial rate because foreign intervention to support the commercial
rate has been masking the dollar's strength.
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Soviet oilmen recently told US officials in Moscow that the USSR
cannot now produce and refine enough crude oil to satisfy both domestic
demand and contractual agreements with Eastern Europe. Inference of a
crisis at this time is exaggerated. The Soviet Union's net oil exports amount
to 2 million b/d, almost one-fourth of total output. Nevertheless, Moscow
does not have uncommitted oil. During the recent Arab-Israeli fighting the
USSR temporarily reduced deliveries to Italy so that it could compensate
Eastern Europe for a reduction in supplies of Iraqi oil. Although the USSR
values its reputation as a reliable oil exporter to the West, in this instance
the needs of Bulgaria, which depends on Iraqi oil for about half of 1,'s
supply, apparently took priority.
During the next three to five years the USSR should produce enough
oil to meet domestic requirements and to provide sizable exports to Eastern
and Western Europe. At the same time, unless the Soviet petroleum industry
solves some major problems, the USSR may have to depend on foreign
oil to meet the steadily growing domestic demand by the mid-1980s. Soviet
oil production is running below plan. Large, older fields near consumption
centers are being depleted more rapidly than expected, so the USSR must
accelerate the development of oil fields in West Siberia. Exploitation of
these fields has been delayed by difficult operating conditions for which
domestic equipment and technology are inadequate.
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DOMESTIC ECONOMIC INDICATORS
GNP"
WHOLESALE PRICES
Average Annual
Constant Markel Prices
Growth Rate Since
Average Annual
Industrial
Growth Role Since
Percent Change
Percent Chongo
Latest hear Previous 1 Year Previous
P! enter Quarter 1970 Earlier Dueller
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Ecrlim Earlier
United States
r3 III
0.9
5.7
3.7
United States
Sep 73
0.5
4.9
1.9
3.8
Japan
13 11
1.4
13.0
5.9
Japan
Son 73
1.8
5.7
10.7
20.0
West Germany
%3 11
- 2.3
0.2
-8.8
West Germany
Sop 73
-0.1
4.7
0.6
1.0
France
1311
0.7
8.7
2.9
France
Aug 73
1.0
7.1
10.2
20.5
United Kingdom
73 II
0.7
9,5
2.7
United Kingdom
Sop 73
1.1
7.3
7.0
13.5
Italy
73 I
0.0
5.2
3.4
Italy
Aug 73
1.2
8.4
19.4
27.2
Canada
73 II
0.9
6.8
3.7
Canada
Sop 73
-0.7
10.0
24.6
45.0
CONSUMER PRICES
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
RETAIL SALES"
Current Prices
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Average Annual
Growth Rote Since
Percent Change
Latest from Previous 1 Yeer 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier''
Sep 73
0.0
0.0
10.2
114 . United States
Aug 73
1.4
9.0
17.5
8.9 Japan
Aug 73
5.9
4.0
8.5
-5.9 West Germany
Aug 73
0
7.7
10.4
9.9 France
Aug 73
0.7
3.7
8.2
0 United Kingdom
Aug 73
2.0
3.0
13.5
25.3 Italy
Aug 73
-3.1
5.0
8.0
1.6 Canada
'
MONEY SUPPLY*
Average Annual
Growth Rote Since
Percent Chang e
Latest from Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier"
Sep 73
-0.9
10.5
10.7
9.5 United States
Jun 73
2.1
12.5
22.6
14.3 . Japan
Aug 73
4.2
9.0
4.2
1.2 West Germany
Jun 73
3.4
0.4
7.2
5.5 France
Aug 73
0.7
11.1
12.1
14.e United Kingdom
May 73
2.3
11.3
20.4
22.3 Italy
Sep 73
-0.3
10.6
13.6
5.8 Canada
United States ~ Prime finance paper
Japan Call money
West Germany Interbank Ioane(3Months)
France Call money
United Kingdom Lucal authority deposits
Canada Finance paper
Euro-Dollars Three-month deposits
1 Year
Latest Date Earlier
Nov
Oct
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
3 Months
Earlier
1 Month
Earlier
1.50
5.13
a.25
8.25
8.75
4.08
7.50
9.00
14.25
7.25
14.25
14.38
11.25
6.75
8.75
11.13
12.63
4.14
11.61
13.13
9.25
5.13
7.50
8.75
9.38
5.88
11.44
10.69
latest
Month
Sep 73
Sop 73
Aug 73
Sep 73
Sap 73
Aug 73
Sop 73
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
from Previous I Year 3 Months
Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
0.3
4.9
7.4
9.7
2.9
8.2
14.6
19.5
-0.1
5.8
7.2
2.5
0.9
6.4
7.9
9.7
U.9
8.4
9.3
6.6
0.0
7.2
11.7
8.5
0.0
5.5
8.5
11.7
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latest from Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier "
Sap 73
-0.3
7.2
5.3
5.5
Jul 73
-0.6
17.9
32.4
12.7
Aug 73
-2.4
8.5
1.7
-12.7
Apr 73
2.6
13.3
14.1
2.6
Sop 73
-2.1
10.6
8.5
9.9
19.1
13.7
14.4
13.0
'Seasonally adjusted.
"Average for latest 3 months cr+tpared
wlth, average for p7evioue 3 months.
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EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATOR
EXPORTS"
1.0.11.
Millioa U5 $ ?urcont
Million US $ 1973
1072 Change
United States
Sop 73
0,448
50,010
35,009
41.1
Japan
Sep 73
3,120
25,750
20,185
27.0
West Germany
Sep 73
0,260
48,869
34,034
43.0
France
Sop 73
3,241
20,742
19,205
39.2
United Kingdom
Sop 73
2,584
21,220
10,738
20.0
Italy
Aug 73
1,890
13,489
11,809
13.4
Canada Aug 73
1,002
'15,8551
12,917
22.8
IMPORTS"
f.o.b.
Million US $ Percent
Million US $ 1973
1972 Change
United States
Sop 73
5,575
60,4561
1
40
079
24.0
Japan
Sep 73
2,725
12.154
,
13,523
03.8
West Germany
Sep 73
4,436
37,245
27,805
33.9
France
Sep 73
3,001
25,690
18,430
39,3
United Kingdom
Sep 73
3,01 H
24,429
17,941
39.2
Italy
Aug 73
2,317
15.074
10,990
37.1
Canada
Aug 73
1.914
14.882
12,203
22.0
TRADE BALANCE"
f.o.b./f.o.b.
Latest Month Cumulative (Million US S)
Million US S 1973
1972 Change
Jnitdd States
Sop 73
873
154
-4,810
4,904
Japan
Sep 73
402
3,804
8,801
-3.057
West Germany
Sep 73
1,832
11,024
0,228
5,396
France
Sop 73
240
1,052
789
284
United Kingdom
Sep 73
-434
- 3.204
-1,203
-2.001
Italy
Aug 73
-427
-1,584
903
-2,488
Canada
Aug 73
-12
974
714
260
BASIC BALANCE""
Current and Long?Torm?Capital Transactions
United States'
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Sep 73
Oct 73
Sep 73
net 73
1972
-5.700
1,257
3,593
-524
-446
2,983
-117
Earlier
14.0
32.2
10.2
8.6
6.0
5.8
EXPORT PRICES
USS Average Annual
Growth Mete Since
Percent Chonge
Latest train Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Merrill 1970 Earlier Earlier
United Stt tos
Aug 73
3.9
8.4
21.5
' 35.7
Japan
Jul 73
4.3
12.0
23.0
40
0
West Germany
Aug 73
-2.7
15
32.3
.
70
2
Franco
Jun 73
9.2
15.5
33.7
.
51
5
United Kingdom
Aug 73
0.6
10.5
12.3
.
11.5
Italy
Jun '3
2.9
9.2
12.9
77
1
Canada Jul 73 2.7 0.2
.
13.1 t 12.0
EXPORT PRICES
National Currency Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latest train Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
Urited States
Aug ?3
3.9 ' 8.4
22.5 35.7
Japan
Jul 73
4.2
2.2
8.5 38.1
West Germany
Aup 73
-1.9
0.9
-0.8
-4
4
Franco
Jun 73
3.8
5.0
13.1
.
14.8
United Kingdom
Aug 73
2.0
9.2
10.8
18.6
Italy
Jun 73
2.5
6.0
13.1
26.9
Canada Jul 73
2.8
5.1
14.8
11.8
IMPORT PRICES
National Currency Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Purcell Change
Lotest Irons Previous
I Year 3 Months
Month Month
1970 Earlier Earlier
United States
Aug 73
10.8
20.6
19.2
Japan
Jul 73
0.0
8.0
12.3
West Germany
Aug 73
-0.2
2.8
-9
1
France
Jun 73
3.1
5.6
.
7.3
United Kingdom
Aug 73
13
3
34
1
Italy
Jun 73
.
10.8
.
24.8
42.0
54.4
Canada Jun 73
4.8
10.0
13.4
EXCHANGE RATES Spot Hate
As of 2 Nov 73
USS 18 Dec 19 Mar 29 Oct
Per Unit Dec 60 1971 1973 1973
Japan(Yn)
t
h
(
0.0036
31.82
12.'11
-4.38
-3
40
e
k)c
West Germany
Mar
0.4087
62.57
31.71
15.42
.
-0.63
France (Franc) IPnund
0.2350
18.39
19.35
8.62
80
-0
United Kingdom sterhngl
2.4340
-12.78
-6.59
-1.10
.
-0.12
Italy (Lira)
0.0018
9.37
1.80
-1.07
-0.62
Canada lYouarl
1.0044
8.89
0.86
0.87
-0.05
As of 2 Nov 73
18 Dec 19 Mar 28 Oct
Dec Go 1971 1973 1973
United States
-18.59
-9.08
-2.35
99
0
Japan
19.21
5.38
-8.61
.
-3.24
West Germany
31.17
14.15
9.12
0.38
France
-11.35
1 87
-0.57
0.03
United Kingdom
-34.93
-20.71
-8.29
0.62
Italy
-10.98
-15.78
-8.94
0.19
Canada
5.07
-1.48
0.18
0.23
"'Weighting is based on each listed country 's trade with 16 other induetriatized
countries to rellest the competitive Impact of exchange-rate. dariations
et long the major cutrenciee,
Approved For Release 2008/11/13: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500140039-5