ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150009-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 29, 2009
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: February 21, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150009-7
Secret
Economic Intelligence Weekly
I LOAN COPY
Ret
j~j urn to NgSe
Secret
CIA No. 7927/74
21 February 1974
Copy N2 199
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ti.LUXET
EC Trade Balance Deteriorating Last year's deficit will handicap
efforts to cope with spiraling oil bills.
Strong Export Demand for US Wheat Continues Shortages of wheat
for near-term delivery have strengthened demand for US wheat and
driven prices up.
Paris Club Considers Renegotiation of Chilean Debts Santiago seeks
relief from debt payments of more than $600 million due Western
creditors.
US-East German Trade: Standing by for Recognition Trade, now
dominated by US agricultural sales, would spurt with diplomatic
recognition.
Peru to Compensate US Firms
Soviets Shop for Service Station Equipment
China Seeks US Roller Bearings Plant
Summaries of Recent Publications
Comparative Indicators
Recent Data Concerning Domestic and External
Economic Act?vity
The oil situation is now being covered mainly in
International Oil Developments, published each
Friday morning.
Note: Comments and queries regarding this publication arc welcomed.
i
SECRET
PaEL
21 February 1974
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Total trad,~ of the European Community increased last year to about
$400 billion, with the balance shifting from a slight surplus to a $2.7 billion
deficit. West Germany registered another record surplus, which was more
than offset by large deficits in the United Kingdom, Italy, and Denmark.
The other )EC countries had small imbalances that roughly netted out.
West Germany - The record 45% jump in West German export earnings
in 1973 resulted from an 18% rise in volume and a 23% increase in dollar
prices. Because Bonn's anti-inflationary policies curbed domestic demand,
West German industry was better able to meet the booming foreign demand
for investment goods. Moreover, German producers protected their
competitive edge by holding mark export prices practically constant despite
a 9% rise in domestic industrial prices. A rise of only 8% in import volume
allowed the trade surplus to reach an extraordinary $13 billion.
Oil Price
1972 Exports Imports Impact on
Balance (f.o.b.) (c.i.f.) Balance 1974 Balance'
Reserves
1973
End of Year
To-ial +0.8 201.2 203.9 -2.7 -27'/2 68.3
West Germany +6.4 67.8 54.5 +13.3 -7 33.1
France -0.8 36.8 37.4 -0.6 -5'h 8.5
Italy -0.7 21.72 26.92 -5.22 -5 6.4
United Kingdom -3.5 28.5 37.5 -9 0 -5'h 6.5
Netherlands +0.1 23.92 23.52 +0.42 -2 6.5
Denmark -0.7 6.1 7.7 -1.6 -1 1.3
Belgium-:.:... mbourg +0.5 14.22 13.62 +0.62 -I'r4 5.0
Ireland -0.5 2.22 2.82 -0.62 -r/a 1.0
1. Assuming import volume at 6% below 1973 level and c.i.f. prices of $10 per barrel for Persian Gulf oil and $11 per
barrel for Libyan. Nigerian, and Venezuelan oil.
2. Estimates for 1973 based on partial-year data.
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Value 1
Volume
Prices 1
Terms
f
Exports
Imports
Exports
Imports
Exports
Imports
o
Trade
West Germany
145
135
118
108
123
125
98
France
139
140
109
110
128
127
101
Italy
117
132
101
102
116
130
89
United Kingdom
118
134
105
108
112
124
89
Netherlands
142
139
116
111
122
125
98
United Kingdom - Largely because of an l No deterioration in terms
of trade, the British trade deficit soared from $3.5 billion to $9.0 billion.
Import prices rose 24%, while unit costs of fuels, raw materials, and food --
the United Kingdom's major imports - increased by 40%. Export prices
for British manufactured goods went up only 15%.
Italy - Because of a 30% increase in import prices compared with
a 16% rise in export prices, the trade deficit grew by $4.5 billion. Widespread
strikes early in the year also depressed export earnings.
Denmark -- A $900 million worsening in the trade deficit was caused
by removal of the surcharge that had hampered import demand in 1972
and by deteriorating terms of trade.
The outlook for EC trade balances this year is bleak; the combined
oil import bill will increase by an estimated $27.5 billion. West Germany
1S in the strongest position of any European country because it holds nearly
half of the Community's foreign reserves and starts with the advantage of
a huge trade surplus. Other countries - the United Kingdom and Italy,
in particular - will be hard pressed by the further deterioration in their
trade balances, caused by higher oil prices. To protect their reserves, some
countries are borrowing on a large scale in foreign capital markets and
arranging barter deals with oil producers.
2
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Index 1972=100L
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Dept. Of
Commerce
Declassification
and Release
Instructions On
File review(s)
completed.
Export pressure on the scanty supplies of US wheat still available for
delivery by 1 July has pusi,ed prices to a new high.
As of 3 February, export commitments for FY 1974 delivery of US
wheat, plus shipments since 1 July 1973, totaled 32 million tons. USDA
had forecast exports of 32.7 million tons for FY 1974.
Reflecting the high demand,
Kansas City spot prices for wheat have risen sharply from $5.45 a bushel
on 4 February to a seasonal high of $6.12 a bushel on 15 February. On
the same day, March futures reached a historic high of $6.34 a bushel.
These high prices may not check export demand, in view of the
following factors:
? EC countries have practically stopped exporting wheat
because of the high prices for imported corn needed to
replace the wheat.
? Other major exporters - Canada, Argentina, and Australia
are largely booked through June.
? World carryover stocks of wheal by 1 July will be the lowest
since 1947.
4
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25X1 ,
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? Some Middle Eastern countries are stockpiling wheat.
? Importing countries fear that the United States will place
export controls on wheat.
? Importers fear that fertilizer shortages may push wheat prices
even higher next year.
Chile's major Western creditors -- the Paris Club - are meeting to
consider Santiago's request to reschedule 95% of its $641 million current
obligation to the group. The Club holds $2.2 billion, or two-thirds, of
Chile's foreign debts. In 1972, Chile rescheduled $426 million of Paris Club
debt.
The attitude of the creditors toward the new government - generally
hostile after the September coup - has improved. They have been impressed
by Chile's economic recovery efforts, successful negotiation for standby IMF
Yearend
Yearend
1971
1972
T&tal
2,060
2.145
United States
1,306
1,324
United Kingdom
201
210
West Germany
143
148
France
89
107
Italy
88
100
Spain
62
73
Japan
63
65
Canada
26
26
Switzerland
26
26
Netherlands
20
25
Belgium
16
17
Sweden
9
10
Denmark
6
6
Other
5
8
1. The debt of $2,159 million at yearend 1973 cannot be
distributed Ly creditor.
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21 February 1974
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credit, progress in arranging compensation for nationalized industries, and
renegotiation of its 1971/72 US debt. Moreover, Chilean officials have
conducted extensive bilateral discussions during the past `ew weeks and
may have reached some understandings with Bonn, Paris, London, and
Madrid. Nevertheless, political factors continue to cloud European relations
with the Chilean Junta.
Chile: Extc.tiral Debt Service Payments
United
States
Other
Member
Countries
Total
International
institutions
Other To
tal
1973
Debt service payments due
E
240.2
213.9
454.1
29.7
34.4 518
.2
stimated payments
D
37.6
78.8
116.4
21.7
22.3 160
.4
ebt relief
202.6
135.1
337.7
8.0
12
1 357
8
1974
.
.
Debt service payments due
314.9
326.1
641.0
39.3
61.9 742
.2
Carried over from 1973
F
ll
170.21
135.1
305.3
8.0
12.1 325
.4
a
ing due in 1974
144.7
191.0
335.7
31.3
49.8 416
.8
Despite political misgivings, all Paris Club members except Italy are
attending the meetings, and all generally favor a settlement.
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US-EAST GERMAN TRADE:
STANDING BY FOR RECOGNITION*
US trade with East Germany - the most highly industrialized of the
East European countries -- has doubled since 1970, reaching $100 million
in 1973. Once diplomatic relations are established, trade should rise to a
level more consistent with East Germany's economic status.
1965
1970
1971
1972
1973 (est.)
Total
US
Exports
US
Imports
US
Balance
13.7
6.7
7.0
-0.3
49.3
40.2
9.1
31.1
74.0
64.5
9.5
55.0
78.2
69.5
3.7
60.8
100.0
91.0
9.0
82.0
Source: East German data, except for 1973.
Agricultural commodities - soybean meal, corn, and wheat -
accounted for 90% of US sales to East Germany in 1973. The most
important US imports were printing, textile, and photographic equipment,
products that the GDR markets successfully in the West. US-GDR trade
should increase slightly in 1974 since demand for feeds needed to support
the GDR's high-priority livestock program is expected to remain strong.
US companies oave been trying to expand non-agricultural exports.
In 1973, for example, GM proposed a joint project involving automobile
production, and several firms were negotiating for contracts to expand the
large oil refinery at Schwedt. East Germany thus far has held US firms
at arm's length, announcing that trade and joint ventures with the United
States can expand rapidly once diplomatic recognition is granted and trade
barriers are reduced.
The GDR has already turned to the ~tiest to fill crowing needs for
advanced machinery, chemicals, and metals not available in the Communist
world. The GDR in turn has the greatest potential in Eastern Europe for
expanding sales to the West - particularly of fertilizers, plastics, chemicals,
optical equipment, and consumer manufactures ranging from clothing to
~oys
* This is the sixth in a series of articles on current developments and prospects for US economic
relations with the East European countries.
SECRET
21 February 1974
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Peru to Compensaf:' US Firms
Peru has agreed to pay $150 million compensation for US firms
nationalized since 1968. Initial claims of the firms amounted to $300
million, while Peru valued the property at about $70 million. On Tuesday,
Lima paid $74 million directly to five companies, $58 million to Cerro
de Pasco Corporation alone. The remaining $76 million will be paid in a
h.mp sum to the US Government for distribution in one year among 12
claimants, including Cerro, Morrison Knudsen, Standard Oil of California,
W.R. Grace, and five fishing companies.
Peruvian olficia:~ hope that the settlement will pave the way
for renewed Ex-Im Bank credits and private financing to its mining industry.
Soviets Shop for Service Station Equipment
The USSR is interested in buying the equipment for 500 to 1,000
service stations from the United States during 1974 to help meet its 1975
auto services plan. A group of five US service equipment firms :s proposing
to equip stations on main routes connecting Moscow, Leningrad, and Kiev.
The $50 million to $100 million deal, if followed through, would be a
major shot in the arm for the harassed Soviet car owner. The USSR urgently
needs to expand services for the 5 million cars expected by the end of
China Seeks US Roller Bearings Plant
China has requested Rollway Bearing Company of Syracuse, New York,
to submit a proposal for a turnkey plant for the manufacture of roller
bearings. The Chinese want the latest automated equipment in the plant,
which will cost between $15 million and $20 million. Plans call for a
capacity of more than I million bearings annually, to be used in railway
equipment. machine tools, and electric motors. In 1972, China imported
roller and ball bearings valued at nearly $14 million.
8
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Chinese Economic Prospects for 1974-75
(CIA ER IM 74-1, February 1974
In 1974 and 1975, the last two years of the Fourth Five-Year Plan,
the Chinese economy will move forward at a moderate pace, forging closer
ties with the United States, Japan, and Western Europe. China will be
drawing still farther ahead of other major LDCs such as India, Pakistan,
and Indonesia. At the same time, the PRC may not be closing the gap
with the fast-moving high-technology nations. This memorandum includes
a table with extensive unclassified data on the Chiucse economy in 1952
and 1957-73.
India: Import Policies and Practices
(CIA ER RP 74-3, February 1974, 25X1
To preserve scarce foreign exchange and encourage domestic
production, India has maintained rigid controls over imports. New Delhi
has been generally successful in reducing dependence on imports and shifting
the composition of imports from finished manufactures to raw materials
and components. In the process, import controls have fostered a corrupt
bureaucracy, retarded industrial growth, and postponed essential imports
in the face of rising world prices.
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DOMESTIC ECONOMIC INDICATORS
GNP'
Average Annual
Constant Market Prices
Growth Rote Since
WHOLESALE PRICES
Average Annual
industrial
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latest Iron Previous I Year Previous
Quarter Quarter 1970 Earlier Overt en
Percent clialife
Latest (ruin Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Month 197(1 Earlier Earlier
United States
73 IV
4.1
4.0
1.3
United States
Jan 74
7.2
17.3
30.9
Japan
73 III
8.5
10.0
2.0
Japan
Jan 74
10.4
34.0
84.8
West Germany
73 III
3.3
5.3
0.5
West Germany
Doc 73
5.3
8.8
11.0
France
73 11
6.2
8.7
2.9
Franca
Dec 73
9.2
20.9
37.3
United Kingdom
73 III
3.9
6.0
5.2
United Kingdom
Doc 23
8.0
10.2
15.0
Italy
73 1
3.1
5.2
3.4
Italy
Nov 73
9.0
21.1
17.5
Canada
73111
5.7
6.9
1.7
Canada
Nov 73
8.5
18.4
23.3
CONSUMER PRICES
Average Annual Average Annual
Growth Rate Since Growth Rune Since
Percent change
Percent Change -
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Latest from Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
Month Month 1970 Earlier Eari.e
United States
Dec 73
-0.2
5.6
5.4
1.3
Unit
ed States
Doc 73
0.7
5.2
8.9
G
Japan
Dec 73
-2.0
8.7
11.9
13.3
Japa
n
Doc 73
3.8
9.1
19.1
21.,
West Germany
Oct 73
-1,1
3.8
6.5
7.7
Wes
t German
y
Doc 73
0.9
6.2
7.9
12.4
France
Dec 73
-4.4
5.7
2.1
0
Fran
ce
Doc 73
0.6
0.7
8.5
10.9
United Kingdom
Dec 73
-4.1
2.1
-1.0
-5.0
Unite
d Kingdo
m
Jan 74
1.9
9.3
12.0
14.5
Italy
Doc 73
-7.6
4.4
12.8
22.3
Italy
Dec 73
1.4
7.7
12.5
14.5
Canada
Oct 73
1.8
6.4
7.5
-4.4
Cana
da
Dec 73
0.8
5.0
9.1
6.7
RETAIL SALES"
MO
NEY SU
PPLY'
Current Prices Average Annual
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Percent Change
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier"
1970 Earlier Earlier "
United States
Jon 74 ' 2.5 I
10.4
5.9
0.8
Unit
ed States
Jon 74
-0.5
7.2
5.4
7.9
Japan
Sep 13
4.8
13.9
25.3
26.0
Japa
n
Oct 73
-0.1
18.2
22.7
15.0
West Germany
Oct 73
4.1
9.1
9.2
1.2
Wes
t German
y
Nov 73
2.5
8.9
4.4
-1.6
France
Nov 73
-2.4
5.6
15.2
20.1
Fran
ce
Nov 73
-0.8
P.O
5.2
7.2
United Kingdom
Nov 73
0.7
12.1
14.8
21.9
Unit
ed Kingdo
m
Dec 73
-0.2
9.6
3.8
-8.9
Italy
Aug 73
0.1
12.4
19.0
5.0
Italy
Aug 73
1.1
20.8
23.4
28.5
Canada
Nov 73
0.3
10.1
10.5
8.0
Cana
da
Dec 73
3.0
13.0
11.7
2.9
1 Year 3 Months I Month
Representative Rates Latest Date Earlier Earlier Earlier
United States
Prime finance paper
8 Feb
8.13
5.88
7.75
8.75
Japan
Call money
1 Feb
12.00
5.12
8.75
12.00
West Germany
Interbank loans (3 Months)
8 Feb
11.00
8.00
14.00
13.00
France
Call money
8 Feb
12.63
7.88
10.88
13.00
'Sessonally adjusted.
United Kingdom
Local authority deposits
8 Feb
15.94
7.49
12.19
15.25
''Average for latest 3 moetits compared
Canada
Finance paper
8 Feb 1.83
5.25
9.00
8.88
with average for previous 3 months.
Euro?Dollars
Three-month depcsits
8 Feb 8.44
7.15
9.19
9.58
21 Feb 1974
Office of Economic Research/CIA
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EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
EXPORTS"
fall
Million US S ' Percent
Million US $ 1973 1072 Change
United States
Doc 73
0,930
70,790
49,221
43.0
Japan
Jan 74
3,651
30,192
28,032
29.1
West Germany
Doc 73
5,430
07,755
40,727
45.0
France
Jon 74
3,400
30,030
20,390
39.5
United Kingdom
Doc 73
2,384
28,461
22,875
24 4
Italy
Nov 73
2,004
10,031
10,549
19.8
Canada
Doc 73
2,200
24,029
20,175
23.1
IMPORTS'
I o.b.
Cumulative
Million US $ Percent
Ch
United States
Doc 73
5,990
69,070
55,553
ange
24.3
Japan
Jan 74
3,428
32,455
19,001
70.3
West Germany
Doc 73
4,520
51,727
37,991
30.2
France
Jan 74
3,566
35,428
25,208
40,[
United Kingdom
Doc 73
3,154
33,946
24,027
37.8
Italy
Nov 73
1,981
21,973
15,296
43.0
Canada
Dec 73
2,189
23,341
18,835
23.9
TRADE BALANCE"
I.o.b./I.o.b.
Latest Month Ganulative (Million US $I
Mdhon US $ 1973 1972 Change
United States
Doc 73
940
1,714
-6,332
8,040
Japan
Jan 74
223
3,737
8,971
-5,234
West Germany
Dec 73
916
16,028
8,735
7,793
France
Jan 74
-100
1,408
1.129
278
United Kingdom
Dec 73
-770
-5.485
-1,751
-3,734
Italy
Nov 73
23
-2,143
1.253
-3,395
Canada
Doc 7.' 17
1,487
1,340
147
BASIC BALANCE'"
Current and Long?Term-CapitalTransactions
Latest Period Cumulative (Million US S)
Million US $ 1973 1972 Change
United States'
73 III
2,54n
990
-8,400
9.3 90
Japan
Jan 74
675
-9.770
2,131
-11,907
West Germany
Oct 73
925
3,445
3,867
-421
France
73 II
17
-559
-202
-357
United Kingdom
73 III
-522
-1,844
-1,347
- 497
Italy
72 IV
800
NA.
2,983
NA.
Canada
73 II
93
-151
434
-585
I Year 3 Months
End of Billion US S Jun 1910 Earlier Earlier
United States
Dec 73
14.4
16.3
13.2
14.0
Japan
Jan 74
11.6
4.1
17.9
14.0
West Germany
Dec 73
33.1
8.8
23.8
35.3
France
Jan 74
8.3
4.4
10.0
10.1
United Kingdom
Jan 74
6.2
2.8
5.7
6.8
Italy
Dec 73
6.4
4.7
6.1
6.5
Canada
Jan 74
5.9
4.3
6.0
5.8
'Seemnelly adjusted.
"Co'1wrted Into US dollars at currant market rata of exchange.
EXPORT PRICES
ItSS Average Annual
lirnwlh note Since
Percent Change------
Latest (rum Previous I Year 3 Months
Monti Month 39111 Earlier Earlier
United Status
Doc i3
4.1
10.3
26.7
44.7
Japan
Oct 73
1.8
13.0
25.8
711.0
West Germany
Nov 73
-0.3
13.1
29.9
10.5
France
Oct 73
2.2
15.0
31.6
20.5
United Kingdom
Nov 73
-0.6
8.9
16.6
2.3
Italy
Sol) 73
2.3
11.3
22.4
37.0
Canada
Oct 73
1.7
1.9
19.5
30.8
EXPORT PRICES
National Currency Average Annual
Growth [late Since
Percent Change
Latest Prom Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
United States
Doc 73
10.3
26.7
44.7
Japan
Oct 73
3.8
11.1
31.5
West Germany
Nov 73
1.9
4.7
14.1
France
kA 73
6.6
10.7
34.9
United Kingdom
It'v'3
9.0
16.4
20.5
Italy
Stir 73
7.7
18.7
21.4
Canada
IMPORT PRICES
National Currency
Oct 73
6.7
A
Gr
21.3
verage Ann
owth Rate S
30.3
ual
ince
Percent Change
Latest tram Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
United States
Dec 73
4.7
13.5
32.5
65.3
Japan
Oct 73
2.4
3.5
16.8
29.4
West Germany
Nov 73
4.5
2.0
9.3
33.2
France
Oct 73
-1.5
5.3
14.3
35.2
United Kingdom
Nov 73
i.2
15.1
38.3
52.1
Italy
Sop 73
0
13.2
34.2
44.1
Canada
Oct 73
1.0
5.5
13.9
9.2
EXCHANGE RATES Spot Rate
As of 15 Feb 74
US S 18 Dec 19 Mar 8 Feb
Per Unit Dec 66 1971 1973 1974
Japanloenl
West Germany IMarklche
0.0034
0.3670
23.81
45.98
5.20
18.2 7
-10.18
3.64
1.15
1.10
France 1Francl
P.2000
-0.94
1.57
-9.26
0.30
United Kingdom sic nrrgl
2 2770
-18.40
-12.81
-7.48
1.88
Italy Enrol
0.0015
-4.56
-11.18
-13.87
0.86
Canada IDollarl
1.0265
11.29
2.88
2.89
0.73
As of 15 Feb 74
38 Dec 19 Mar 8 Feb
Dec 66 1971 1913 1974
United States
-14.15
-4.87
1.78
-1.00
Japan
14.55
0.88
-10.97
0.79
West Germany
29.27
12.40
7.41
0.03
France
-18.87
-5.50
-7.35
-0.90
United Kingdom
-35.39
-21.21
-6.85
0.99
Italy
-21.65
-20.38
-13.53
-0.04
Canada
9.14
2.52
4.14
0.41
"'Weighting is based on each listed country's trade with 16 other industrialized
countries to reflect the competitive impact of exchange-rate variations
among the major currencies,
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150009-7