Document Type: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
Release Decision: 
Original Classification: 
Document Page Count: 
Document Creation Date: 
December 22, 2016
Document Release Date: 
September 29, 2009
Sequence Number: 
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
March 21, 1974
Content Type: 
PDF icon CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150013-2.pdf685.38 KB
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150013-2 Secret Economic Intelligence Weekly iJ iO4Pi r Secret CIA No. 7931/74 21 March 1974 Copy N2 204 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 SECRET Brezhnev Unveils Land Improvement Scheme This long-term program will not substantially reduce the need f'or large grain imports this decade. Egyptian Expectations of US Aid Sadat hopes to involve the United States heavily in Egypt's post war econom ic renovation. Copper: Turbulence in Production and Prices Supplies will remain tight in 1974 despite the worldwide slowdown in economic growth. Italy: Trade Deficit Causes Financing Problems Rome is seeking intergovernment financing to help corer an expected $11 billion deficit. China: Energy Squeeze Although oil is booming, supplies of coal and electric power are short. France: Nuclear Industry Moves Forward India: Grain Situation Worsens PRC Test Flies 707s Abroad Turndown of Soviet Bid on US Hydro Project Temporary Restrictions on Thai Rice Exports Publication of Interest Summary of a Recent Publication Comparative I ndicators Recent Data Concerning Internal and External Economic Activity 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 The oil situation is now being covered mainly in International Oil Developments, published each Friday morning. Note: Comments and queries regarding this publication :,re welcomed. They may be directed to Mrs. i SECRET 21 March 1974 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 SECRET ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY BREZHNEV UNVEILS LAND IMPROVEMENT SCHEME Brezhnev's land improvement program for the Russian Republic - like Khrushchev's new lands program of the 1950s - aims at dampening the large fluctuations in Soviet agricultural output. This long-term program will not substantially affect the USSR's need for grain imports through the remainder of the decade. SECRET 21 March 1974 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 SECRET Speaking at the 20th anniversary of the opening of the new lands last week, Brezhnev announced that 35 billion rubles would be spent during 1976-80 in the first phase of a 15-year project to develop the non-black soil region of the Russian Republic. This amount is equivalent to almost one-fourth of the total agricultural investment planned for 1971-75. The new program will include the traditional land reclamation projects - irrigation and drainage -- and increased supplies of mineral fertilizer and other agricultural chemicals. The plan calls for reclamation or improvement of 124 million acres - 79 million of crop land and 45 million of grazing land. The crop land would be equivalent to about 15% of current sown acreage and about equal to the 70 million acres plowed up in the new lands of Kazakhstan and Western Siberia. Although the non-black soil area has large tracts of boggy, uneven land, it has high annual precipitation and responds well to the application cf lime and mineral fertilizer. The Brezhnev agricultural programs of 1965 and 1970 provided more chemicals for this area with good results: grain harvests in 1969 and 1970 were 80% above the 1961-65 average. As a result, this area has provided more than one-third of the increase in grain output in recent years. The Soviets hope that the non-black soil region will provide steady growth in grain production to counter erratic production in the new lands and even the black soil zone. The new program is feasible only because of Soviet success in boosting the output of mineral fertilizer. In contrast, in the 1950s, shortages of fertilizer made the use of extensive new lands the quickest and cheapest way of increasing grain production. Because the Soviets do not have a good track record in land reclamation, the Brezhnev program is unlikely to work ovt as announced. In recent years the amount of land that has slipped into disuse has exceeded additions of newly reclaimed land. In any case, major benefits from the new program will not appear before 1980. The projected demand of the Soviet consumer for meat could require grain imports of 15 million tons annually in the late 1970s. 25X1 SECRET 21 March 1974 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150013-2 SECRET EGYPTIAN EXPECTATIONS OF US AID As progress toward a Middle East settlement continues, Egypt will expect the West, particularly the United States, to play a more visible role in Egypt's postwar economy. Egypt's current interest in US economic backing does not stem from acute financial need. Thanks to $80C million in Arab aid committed during SECRET 21 March 1974 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150013-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150013-2 SECRET the fourth quarter of 1973, Egypt has sufficient cash to cover necessary imports for at least another year. This affluence, together with future prospects for $500 million in annual income from the SUMED Pipeline, Suez Canal, and Sinai oil, has transformed Egypt from suspect debtor to worthy borrower. Egypt claims to have in hand more than $2 billion in multilateral pans, Japanese and West European aid, Communist country credits, and official or semi-official Arab investment commitments. This amount will cover for several years balance-of-payments deficits that probably will not average more than $350 million. Nonetheless, Sadat has economic reasons for seeking US economic support. Since 1970 he has been attempting to wean Egypt away from its humiliating dependence on bilateral aid from the USSR and Arab states. In the face of opposition from old-guard Nassirists he has attempted to resurrect Egypt's private industrial sector and to attract private investment from other Arab countries and the West. Sadat no doubt hopes that, with US Government encouragement, the example of highly successful US-Egyptian joint ventures in the oil sector will be quickly emulated in other sectors. He also wants to duplicate the example of the SUMED pipeline, which is to be built by a US firm and financed by a combination of Arab capital and Egyptian borrowing, including an Exim Bank loan. Recent repayment of overdue debts to the CCC and the Exim Bank indicates that Egypt hopes to continue to use concessionary US credit. While plans for ambitious joint economic undertakings are germinating, Sadat probably desires a symbolic gesture of economic good will from the United States. One possibility, US financial backing for a new medical center to be sponsored by Mrs. Sadat, has already been suggested. The desire for US financial backing has its political side. Sadat would like to demonstrate to skeptical Arab supporters as well as to the USSR that his courtship of the United States can produce tangible economic results. He also does not want to frustrate completely the expectations of many Egyptians that an alliance with the United States will lead to large-scale economic assistance and eventual prosperity. Like other important raw materials, copper has been caught up in the riptides of international monetary disturbances, spot shortages, and political broils. Despite the economic slowdown in industrial nations, demand for copper will remain strong in 1974 because of the need to rebuild stocks and protect against a possible strike in the US industry. SECRET 21 March 1974 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150013-2 25X1 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 SECRET o LLL1_I__1J_LL I_Lll_L ..iL1J_Lli_Ll.~_.I_111_L..I_LLJ_L1_~_L_LLl._L i_LLL_LLL1J 1970 'Through 15 March 162917 4.74 The world copper market has three fairly distinct components: The United States possesses about 30% of mine capacity of non-Communist countries and normally imports only 10`% of its copper requirements. In other non-Communist countries, supplies move mainly to Western Europe and Japan from Chile, Peru, Zaire, Zambia - the members of CIPEC -- and Canada; the CIPEC countries account for about 40% of capacity and 7010 of exports in the non-Communist world. s Communist countries are basically self-sufficient, with output approximately one-fourth of the non-Communist total. SECRET 21 March 1974 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 SECRET Prices and Production in 1973-74 Whereas output and inventories in non-Communist countries comfortably covered demand in 1970-72, the situation was sharpl:- altered in 1973. Consumption jumped by 10% to 6.9 million tons, th Japan leading the way with a 26% rise Refined copper production, constrained by smelting capacity, advanced by 4% to 6.6 million tons. The effect of the 300,000-ton deficit was softened by net imports of 50,000 tons from Communist countries. The remainder of the shortfall was covered by drawing down stocks to their lowest level in several years. Monetp ry uncertainties -- notably inflation and the rejiggering of exchange rates - compounded the upward pressures on copper prices. By mid-1973 prices on the London Metal Exchange climbed past the earlier record of 800. per pound. Even though consumption began to level off after midyear, inventory rebuilding sustained the buying fever. By November, LME spot quotations averaged $1.03; after a brief decline, they rebounded to a new record high of $1.16 in the first two weeks of March 1974. Because of sales under fixed contracts, the US producer price is much less volatile than the LME price. The US price rose early in 1973, was frozen at 60? from March through November, and now stands at 68?. Prospects for 1974 An increase in refined production in non-Communist countries of 6% to 7% is forecast for 1974, boosting output to about 7.1 million tons. More than one-half of this growth is expected to take place in th,,, United States and Chile. Smelting-refining bottlenecks are being lessened in the United States through investment in pollution controls and in Chile through an ambitious renovation program. Chile and Zambia are largely responsible for an expected 6% hike in mine output. Production estimates for 1974 are shakier than usual because of a possible strike in the US industry at midyear, when labor contracts expire. The demand picture is even more uncertain because of continued energy problems, monetary fluctuations, and the worldwide economic slowdown. In 1974, economic growth in West European countries and the United States will generally range from 1% to 4%, far below growth in 1973. Japan's growth rate is expected to be 3% to 5%, down from 11% in 1973. Copper demand will nevertheless remain high. Producers and consumers will want to rebuild their stocks and will be joined by market speculators hedging against a US strike. SECRET 21 March 1974 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 SECRET Consuming nations, particularly the West European countries and Japan, will conitim.te to be vulnerable to price-:fixing by CIPEC producers. ITALY: TRADE DEFICIT CAUSES FINANCING PROBLEMS Italy's trade deficit will double to an estimated $11 billion this year, mainly because of a jump in the oil import bill. At $10.50 per barrel. the cost of oil imports will climb from ?'3.3 billion to $9.5 billion even if domestic consump- tion is held 6% below the 1973 level. Any relief obtained through price reductions later in the year will be offset partly by a recovery of volume to a more normal Icvel. Export earnings from refined prod- ucts should reach about $3.0 billion, assuming that volume is the same as last year and that the rise in crude costs is passed on. Italy's net deficit in oil trade thus is expected to reach '06.5 billion, compared with $2.1 billion fir, 1973. The deficit attributable to trade in other goods is expected to grow by $1 billion. Rising demand for meat will be the single most important factor in widening the non-oil portion of the deficit; Rome is not in a practical political position to curb consumption of meat even if it wants to. At the same time the depreciation of the lira-currently amounting to 10%, compared with the 1973 average value-will hold down export earnings in terms of dollars. Italy: Trade Balance* 1972 OA -21 Meat -2.4 Total: -$5.6 Estimuled Meat and Other -4.5 Total: -$11.0 Projected 'Exports are f.o.b., imports are 0.1. Note: 1974 component projections are rounded to the nearest one-half billion dollars. 7 SECRET Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 ,~~, Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 SECRET Italy is at a disadvantage in competing with other borrowers in private capital markets. Many bankers give Italy a weak credit rating, noting that its Eurocurrency debts already exceed $6 billion. As a result, Rome is searching for other nm,.ns to finance the trade deficit. In recent weeks, it has increased its credit swap line with the United States to $3 billion and has received a $1.2 billion standby credit from the IMF. The financial requirements negotiated with the Fund, viewed by some Italians as domestic interference, were a factor in the fall of Rumor's coalition government earlier this month. The Italians have joined the British in advocating concerted EC borrowing to finance oil bills. But for the present the Community has decided against this procedure. To strengthen its reserve position, Italy has been supporting French efforts to raise the price of gold for interbank transactions to near the free-market level. Such a step would boost the value of Italy's foreign reserves from $6 billion to $18 billion. At a time when oil production and exports are booming, Chins is experiencing a general energy squeeze. Growing shortages of coal - which accounts for almost 80% of primary energy - and of electric power are limiting production in the fertilizer and steel industries. China's 70 billion to 80 billion tons of proved coal reserves are sufficient for any foreseeable need. The problem stems from insufficient investment in large, new underground mines since 1969. Peking has been giving priority to industries supporting agriculture - chemical fertilizer, for example - and to the petroleum and synthetic fiber industries. Policy toward the coal industry has featured more intensive operation of existing mines and the opening of small local mines. These measures are encountering diminishing returns. Unless Peking either opens new underground mines or drastically expands strip mining - now done only on a small scale - coal production will continue to constrain industrial output. Tightening coal supplies are contributing to the slow growth of the electric power industry, since coal-fired plants account for 70% of total capacity. The lack of a national power grid and inadequate transmission facilities have compounded the problem. Aside from the rationing of power 8 SECRET 21 March 1974 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 SECRET in several industrial center f'or the past two years, Peking's only other remedial action has been to convert about 15% of its coal-fired plants to oil. Recent Chinese interest in purchases of nuclear power facilities from abroad suggests that Peking views nuclear' energy as a long-term remedy to the problem. China: Electric Power, Coal, and Crude Oil Output Electric Power Output (Billion KWH) Coal Output (Million Tons) Crude Oil Output (Million Tons) 1969 60 258 20 1970 72 310 28 1971 85 335 37 1972 93 357 43 1973 101 378 53 During the next few years, energy shortages will constrain industrial growth. Prospects are for annual increases in industrial output of about 8% - well below thc; 12%-15% levels of the early 1970s. Peking appears bent on using a substantial part of its rapidly increasing oil supplies to earn hard currency raher than to ease the domestic situation. So far, China seems unwilling to use scarce foreign exchange to import sizable quantities of strip-mining and long-wall-mining equipment. ~ France: Nuclear Industry Moves Forward The French nuclear industry was given a boost when its fast breeder reactor, Phenix, reached its full operating level of 252 megawatts on 14 March. Phenix is the second largest operating breede, in the world, after the Soviet Union's 350-MW plant at Shevchenko. The United States has planned a $700 million, 350- 400-MW demonstration plant near Oak Ridge, Tennessee, but operation is not scheduled until mid-1980. As a result of its success, France hopes to sell an intermediate size (400- 450-MW) breeder reactor to other countries. Paris already has agreed to build two larger (1,200-MW) breeders in cooperation with Italy and with West Germany. If the large breeders are successful, France would be in a good position to gain a sizable share of the world reactor market, now dominated by SECRET 21 March 1974 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 SECRET India: Grain Situation Worsens Foodgrain crops, mainly wheat, now maturing in north Indian growing areas have been further damaged by dry weather and irrigation failures. Grain production is now expected to be 105 million tons, or 3 million tons below February estimates. While production will be 10% above last year's drought-reduced output, it will still be 10 million tons short of India's plan. New Delhi, however. still fine not taken steps to arrange additional PRC Test Flies 707s Abroad Recent overseas test flights of the PRC's Boeing 707s presage their introduction on international routes. CAAC, China's national airline, flew 707s for the first time outside China to Rawalpindi and Pyongyang earlier this month, and Bucharest was the terminus of a CAAC 707 trial flight to Europe last week. The latter route -- via Tehran and Istanbul - probably will be used if CAAC begins service to Europe this summer as expected. For the past several months CAAC has been using its 707s on domestic Turndown of Soviet laid on US Hydro Project The low bid for hydroelectric equipment, submitted jointly by Westinghouse and En ergomasheksport, has been turned down by officials of the Rock Island dam project. The Russians were informed that two of the local electric power distribution groups in the State of Washington refused to accept power from the Rock Island hydroelectric powerplant if Soviet equipment was installed. In the first round of bidding last August, the Westinghouse-Energomasi:eksport offer was low. All bids were canceled and the bidding reopened. In the second round, the Westinghouse-Soviet bid was 15% below that of the next low bidder, and the Soviets believed their bid was successful. Disappointed Soviet officials are saying that the Rock Island contract had assumed symbolic importance as an indicator of US willingness to promote two-way trade. SECRET Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 SECRET Temporary Restriction on Thai Rice Exports Tlhailand's foreign trade officials state that a temporary ban on new rice export contr;'cts will be imposed to assure domestic supplies. Thailand imposed a similar ban last year in March and continued it until fall. Although Thailand has more rice available this year, exports have moved slowly. If exports fall short of the expected 1.2 million tons this year, compared with 880,000 tons in 1973, the world market will be even tighter by midsummer than it was last year. World prices, already nearly three times the level of a year ago, will continue to climb. (CIA ER A 74-9, March 1974 This publication presents an index of construction activity in the People's Republic of' China from 1949 through 1973. The methodological section explains the derivation of production series for three major building materials (cement, timber, and steel) and the weighting of these series to derive the index. Construction activity in China has grown at an average rate of about 6% during 1958-73. Growth has been uneven, however, closely paralleling industrial output in its ups and downs. SECRET 21 March 1974 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 INTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS I'en:ent Chnngr - -- ----- Percent Chang'---- Latest Prom lrevmus I Year Irevrous Lalesl limn Previous I Year 3 Months Oil error Quarter I/O 1Earlier Guenter Merrill Month 1971) Earlier Earlier United States 73 IV I 0.4 4.7 4.0 1.5 United States Felt 74 1.4 7.4 17.6 29.8 Japan 73 IV 1.4 8.3 7.3 5.8 Japan Fell 74 3.9 11.3 37.0 89.7 West Germany 73 IV 0.1 3.1 3.4 (1.3 West Germany Doc 73 0.9 5.3 0.8 11.8 France 73 III 0.9 5.6 6.1 3.8 France Jan 74 5.3 10.6 26.6 56.0 United Kingdom 73 111 I.o 3.9 6.0 5.2 United Kingdom Feb 74 2.9 9.3 15.5 31.3 Italy 73 1 0.8 3.1 5.2 3.4 Italy Nov 73 1.6 9.0 21.1 17.5 Canada 73 IV 2.8 6.l 7.2 11.6 Canada Dec 73 (1.6 8.5 (8.3 19.5 GNP" Constant Markel Prices Avoratn Annual Growth It, lie Since Aver rye Annual Growth Role Since Average Annual Growth Rare Since Average Annual frowtlt (late since Lntest Percent Change born Previous I Year 3 Months Percent Change Latest from Previous I Year 3 Months Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier Month Month 19711 Earlier Eaiher United States Pub 74 I -0.6 I 4.8 1.6 -4.0 United States Jolt 74 5.3 9.5 9.7 Japan Jan 74 1.3 10.0 7.5 Japan Jan 74 10.2 23.1 41.9 West Germany Onr. 73 0.9 6.2 9.0 West Germany Jan 74 6.2 7.4 11.8 France Dec 73 -4.4 2.1 0 France Jon 74 7.1 10.3 13.6 United Kingdom Dec 73 -4.2 1.8 -4.7 United Kingdom Jon 74 3.3 12.0 14.5 Italy Doc 73 - 7.5 12.8 22.3 Italy Dec 73 7.7 12.5 145 Canada Dec 73 -0.1 4.7 9.9 Canada Feb 74 5.8 9.6 9.9 RETAIL SALES' Average Annual Current Prices Growth Rate since Average Annual Growth Rate Since Percent Change Latest Iron Previous I Year 3 Months Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier- Percent Change Latest from Prewons I Year 3 Months Month Month 1970 Ear her Earlier United States Feb 74 - 0.7 9.8 6.0 - 3.4 Unite d States Feb 74 1.2 7.4 6.1 9.2 Japan Nov 73 3.4 14.6 27.4 32.0 Japa n Dec 73 0.1 17.5 16.7 14.7 West Germany Dec 73 0.5 7.8 5.8 7.6 West German y Dec 73 0.9 9.1 0.2 5.1 France Nov 73 -2.4 5.6 15.2 20.1 Fran ce Doc 73 5.0 13.2 9.7 14.2 United Kingdom Nov 73 0.7 12.1 14.8 21.9 Unite d Kingdo m Jan 74 0.2 9.4 4.7 -2.5 Italy Aug 73 6.7 12.4 19.0 5.0 Italy Sep 73 1.4 20.7 23.3 24.7 Canada Dec 73 -0.9 10.6 13.7 9.3 Cana da Jan 74 2.2 13.3 11.6 3.9 I Year 3 Months I Month Representative Rates Latest Date Earlier Earlier Earlier United States Primu finance paper 15 Mar I 7.75 6.63 8.75 7.38 Japan Call money 8 Mar 12.50 5.50 10.00 12.00 West Germany Interbank loans (3 Months) 15 Mar 11.13 8.44 13.00 10.63 France Call money 15 Mar 12.13 7.50 11.88 12.00 'Seasonally adjusted United Kingdom Local authority deposits 15 Mar 15.50 7.61 15.94 15.69 . "Average for latest 3 months compared Canada Finance paper 15 Mar 8.38 5.13 9.50 8.50 with average for previous 3 months. Euro-Dollars Three-month deposits 15 Mar 8.88 8.63 11.00 8.31 21 March 1974 Office of Economic Research/CIA Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2 EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS EXPORTS" I,oil. United States Japan West Germany Franco United Kingdom Italy Canada IMPORTS' United States .I:jrdn West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada TRADE BALANCE' United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada Cumulalrva Latest Monlh ---------------- - Million US S ' Potent Million US S 1973 1972 Change Jan 74 7,110 70,790 46,221 43.8 Full 74 3,623 35,989 27,916 28.9 Jan 74 7,014 67,043 40,125 44.8 Feb 74 3,412 36,674 26,378 39.0 Jan 74 2,280 28,393 22,069 24.2 Dec 73 2,553 22,286 18,570 20.0 Jan 74 2,444 25,197 20,208 24.3 Cumulative Latest Manil, ---------`"-- Million US S Percent Million (IS $ 1913 1912 Chance Jan 74 Feb 74 Jan 74 Fab 74 Jan 74 Dec 73 Jan 74 4,036 4,987 3,714 3,132 2,973 2,226 32,314 51,644 35,272 33,873 24,833 23,304 19,063 37,990 25.250 24.619 17.196 18,851 69.5 35.9 39.7 37.6 44.4 23.6 Jan 74 Nov 73 Doc 7:, Oct 73 Doc 73 Sep 73 Nov 7:; EXPORT PRICES National Currency United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada IMPORT PRICES National Currency Million US $ Jan 74 640 Feb 74 -414 Jan 74 2,027 Feb 74 -303 Jan 74 -852 Dec 73 -420 Jan 74 218 BASIC BALANCE" Current and Long-Term-Capital Transactions United States' Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada 73 III Feb 74 Dec 73 73 111 73 III 72 III 73 III 1973 1.714 3,675 15.999 1,402 -5,480 -2,548 1,892 1972 -6,332 8,854 8,735 1,129 -1,749 1,374 1,414 Change 8,046 -5,178 7,264 273 -3,731 -3,922 478 EXPORT PRICES )ISS United States Japa11 West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada Percent Ciran11ri Latest from Previous Month Month United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada 11.6 -0.8 -0.8 2.9 0.1 3,4 4.9 19111 10.2 13.2 12.4 15.1) 8.7 11.2 9.5 Averapr. Annual Growth Rale Since Permit Chan11c - -------- Jan 74 Nov 73 Dec 73 Oct 73 Doc 73 Sep 73 Nov 73 Aver 0111' Annual Sruwlh Ilate Since I Year E;ubur 26.6 27.4 25.7 31.9 17.3 22.3 22.5 3 Months father 275 11.11 103 15.7 12.4 51.7 42,9 I Year falling 26.6 14.9 4.3 10.7 18.8 18.7 24.5 3 Months Earlier 21.5 34.1 17.6 34.9 33-4 21.4 40,1 19111 10.2 4.8 2.4 6.6 9.8 7.7 8.0 Percent Change Latest I rn Previous Month Month 1971. Jan 74 3.7 14.3 Nov 73 3.7 4.6 Dec 73 4.7 3.3 Oct 73 -1.5 5.3 Dec 73 5.2 16.4 Sop 73 0 13.2 Nov 73 0.3 5.5 EXCHANGE RATES Spot Rate As of 15 March 74 Million US S 1973 I 2.539 I 986 -1,670 193 -1,482 - 521 800 238 United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada -9,702 3,950 2,039 1,840 N.A. 267 1972 -8.282 2,137 4,566 - 202 1,252 2,983 574 Chan 9.28e 8 11,839 -616 - 1,838 - 587 N.A. - 308 End of Billion US S Jun 1970 Jan 74 14.6 16.3 Feb 74 11.9 4.1 Jan 74 32.2 8.8 Fab 74 7.5 4.4 Feb 74 6.0 2.8 Jan 74 6.0 4.7 Feb 74 6.2 4.3 1 Year Earlier 13.1 19.1 23.7 10.6 5.9 5.8 6.2 3 Months Earlier 14.4 13.2 35.0 8.6 6.6 6.2 'Seasonally adjusted. "Convorted Into US dollars at current market rates of exchange. 21 March 1974 JapaniYen) West Germany IDeotsche France (rranch i Mark) ark) United Kingdom Sterling) Italy (Coa) Canada (Dollar) US S Per Unit 0.00354 0.37740 0.20640 2.33300 0.00157 1.02770 Average Annual Growth Rate Since I Year Earlier 34.4 19.8 13.8 14.3 43.1 34.2 13.6 3 MonUrs father 58.6 31.0 54.2 35.2 53.1 44.1 8.1 Dec 66 28.45 50.12 2.23 -16.40 -2.19 11.42 18 Dec 1971 9.15 21.62 4.82 -10.46 -8.95 3.00 19 Mar 1973 -6.81 6.58 -6.35 -5.20 -11.53 3.01 8 Mal 1974 1.72 0.13 0 0.41 1.29 -0.18 United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada Dec 66 -15.86 17.91 30.33 -1?.63 -34.19 -21.28 8.67 18 Dec 1971 -6.49 4.11 13.40 -4.28 -20.04 -20.02 2.06 16 Mar 1913 0.20 -7.81 8.40 -6.72 -5.69 -13.16 3.69 BMar 1974 -0.38 1.64 -0.22 -0.38 0.17 1.12 -0.34 "'Weighting is based on each listed country's trade with 16 other industrialized countries to reflect the competitive impact of exchange-rate variations among the major currencies. Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150013-2