ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150017-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 28, 2009
• Sequence Number: 17
• Publication Date: April 17, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Secret
Economic Intelligence Weekly
Secret
CIA No. 8030/74
17 April 1974
Copy N2 161
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SFIGRIs'f
Pa ,c
vlest Germany's Remarkable Trade Record Striking export growth
generated a record surplus last year. 1
Second Trans-Sib Line to Move Oil? The USSR recently proposed
that Japan help finance a second trans-Siberian railroad instead of an
oil pipeline.
Canada: Tough Policy Proposed for Raw Material Exports Ottawa's
proposed :egislation would res,;?ict exports of nonfood raw materials. 6
concerned about capital outflows from Italy and France. 7
Growing Uncertainty in Exchange Markets Central bankers are
Chile: High Copper Prices Buoy the Economy Chile's economic
prospects have been improved by the recent jump in world copper
prices.
Tel Aviv to Ride Out Economic Difficulties Substantial foreign
exchange reserves and generous US aid should enable Israel to live
with an expansionary policy.
UN Speccal Session on Raw Materials The LDCs will air their usual
grievances against the industrial nutions. 11
Latin America: Banana Producers' Union Slipping Government
plans to boost earnings through an export tax on bananas are not
progressing smoothly.
Argentine )rn Exr arts Moving at Rapid Pace
Drought in Eastern Europe
Reaction to US-Saudi Announcement
EC-Syria: Assad Seeks Formal Ties with the Community
Paris Reports Trade Deficit
Comparative Indicators
Recent Data Concerning Internal and External
Economic Activity
The oil situation is now being covered mainly in
I
14
14
14
14
15
Note: ublication are welcomed. They may be directed to Mrs.
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ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
Articles
WEST GERMANY'S REMARKABLE TRADE hECORD
West Germany continues to rack up record trade surpluses despite the
repeated revaluation of its currency, an increasing oil bill, and the faltering
economies of its major trading partners. The surplus hit a new monthly high
of $1.8 billion (on an f.o.b./c.i.f. basis, not seasonally adjusted) in February,
following a $1.2 billion surplus in January. The surplus in 1973 totaled
12.7 billion - in itself remarkable. This record surplus arose mainly from
West Germany's dynamic export performance.
The following were the main factors in the str;.king 18% gain in export
volume and 46% gain in export value in dollars last year:
? Surging world demand for capital goods, consumer durables,
and intermediate materials especially benefited German
export industries, which are renowned for timely delivery of
high-quality products.
? Stagnating domestic demand, caused partly by restrictive
monetary rind fiscal policies, increased the export capability
of Genna:a industry.
? Tight money directly induced German producers to empha-
size exports because payments sometimes could be obtained
more quickly than on domestic sales.
? Producers of goods in short supply abroad-notably auto-
mobiles, and steel products-were able to raise dollar prices
by more than the mark's revaluation.
? Prices of other exports generally remained competitive
because West Germany had a lower inflation rate than most
of its customers and many firms cut profit margins on
foreign sales. As a result, the average price of German
exports in mark terms rose only 2% from 1972, and the
increase in average prices in terms of dollars did not
materially exceed the 21% appreciation of the mark against
the dollar.
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Iron and steel products led West Germany's export boom with a 72%
rise in sales. Market conditions permitted substantial price hikes while
volume grew by 33%. Earnings from agricultural products, a relatively minor
export, jumped 65% in 1973 with the aid of skyrocketing world prices.
Sales growth ranged from 42% to 47% for such important Getman
manufactures as automobiles, electrical machinery, machine tools, and
chemicals. Except for chemicals, increases in volume typically amounted to
10%-20%, and price increases were still larger. The chemical industry, more
than most, shaved prices to push up export volume.
The revaluation of the mark against the dollar caused exports to the
United States, Canada, and Latin America to grow more slowly than those to
other regions. At the same time, imports from the United States and Canada
grew faster than sales to them, in marked contrast to German trade trends
elsewhere. The growth of sales volume to the United States fell off markedly
for some commodities. Automobile deliveries, for example, rose by only 4%,
although price hikes boosted earnings substantially.
Trends in West German Export and Import Prices
J F M
60.1091 4.74
A M J J A S 0
1973
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Growth in West German Trade, by Area
1973
Percent Charge in Dollar Value:
Trading Partner
Exports (f.o.b.)
Imports (c.i.f.)
Total
46
37
Other EC countries
47
33
Other Western Europe
42
39
United States
33
37
Canada
22
40
Communist countries
'13
53
Japan
72
38
LDCs
47
44
Of which:
Near East and African
oil producers
58
55
Latin America
33
28
Factors in West German Export Growth
1973
Absolute
Incr
P
t
Percent Increase
ease
(Million US $)
ercen
Increase
Volume
Prices (US $)
Total exports
Of which:
21,268
46
18
24
Iron and steel products
1,565
72
33
29
Agricultural products
1,196
65
16
42
Transportation equipment
Of which:
3,427
42
14
24
Automobiles
1,579
42
11
28
Electrical machinery
2,049
46
20
22-
Non-electrical machinery
Of which:
3,804
38
13
22
Machine tools
632
42
11
25
Chemicals
1,621
47
35
9
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Parity changes relative to other currencies had little or no adverse effect
on German trade performance. Japan, Communist countries, and Arab
oil-producing nations were by far the fastest growing export markets.
Increased demand and capacity constraints in other West European countries
helped to boost the German trade surplus with that area.
Extraordinary circumstances contributed to the jump in the trade
surplus early this year. Industrial strikes in Italy and a three-day workweek
in the United Kingdom severely delayed imports from these key suppliers
and diverted customer orders to West German industry. Release of chemicals
and other materials, which had been withheld by German traders during the
Arab oil cutback in anticipation of price rises, also boosted German sales. As
a result, exports rose 45% in January-February compared with the first
two months of 1973; imports increased by 26% entirely because of sharply
higher prices. Import volume actually declined by an estimated 10% or so,
while export volume rose by about 15%.
As these special factors fade, the trade surplus is expected to
narrow-totaling perhaps $10 billion to $11 billion for 1974 as a whole.
Much higher prices, particularly for oil, will push import payments up
considerably even though slow domestic growth will keep demand depressed.
Export growth probably will be down appreciably from last year's rapid
pace. Automobile sales, particularly to other European countries, are down
sharply, and growth in orders for other export goods also has begun to
decline.
Export prices in dollar terms are likely to rise somewhat less than last
year, higher quotations in marks being partly offset by smaller appreciation
of the mark. Producers already have begun to raise export prices in marks to
reflect spiraling material and labor costs. Where profit margins have been
:-ueezed severely by previous efforts to hold down prices, exporters will
have little choice out to pass on additional cost rises to their customers.
SECOND TRANS-SIB LINE TO MOVE OIL?
Brezhnev and Kosygin recently proposed that the Japanese help finance
a second trans-Siberian rail line instead of a pipeline to transport Tyumen'
oil to the Pacific Coast. Tokyo is reluctant because a rail line would take
longer to construct, cost more, and anger the Chinese. Whether the oil goes
by pipeline or rail, Japan considers US participation essential as insurance
against interruptions in deliveries and as a shield against Chinese retaliation.
Regardless of Japan's decision, the Soviets probably will go ahead with the
project.
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Under the new proposal the Soviets would supply Japan with 25
million tons (500,000 b/d) of crude oil annually for 20 years following
the line's completion. In return, the USSR wants up to $3 billion in loans
for construction and railway equipment, rails, and equipment to improve
Soviet pipelines. The second trans-Siberian railroad - extending 2,000 miles
from north of Lake Baikal to Komsomol'sk -- would run 100 to 500 miles
north of the existing !ine. The proposal resurrects an old Stalin scheme
that has brought intermittent construction over the years. Segments on the
eastern and western ends are now in operation. Because of the extremely
difficult terrain and weather, the suggested completion date of 1981 seems
implausible.
Railroads in the Eastern USSR
Niumk , i
e oY~nk ../~ 111' Kul
Tnhet Lake Baikal
1 t,'t
?*Abeken Chelemkhoro
yl ~ Chiles\~
r,.ul.Aj U4n.Ud.
. //,.~ 0ukirt. ~Nomaamo' HIik a$Wn 1
Chepdai n??LL- i ;~n Nluhn
?Oeloeor,41 L k ;SeM~ll
Not h i(o i
South Ket66
Japan
tanro~,,
The proposed line would provide access to important deposits of coal,
copper, iron ore, and gold, as well as Tyumen' oil. It also would make
possible the development of new industrial centers and agricultural areas.
In addition, the new line would be less vulnerable than the existing line,
which passes within ten miles of the Chinese border at some points.
Since the Japanese prefer a pipeline, the newest Soviet proposal is
likely to complicate negotiations on the Tyumen' project. The Japanese
object to the extra time and cost of construction and suspect, probably
correctly, that the Soviets would not wish to burden the rail line with
as much as 25 million tons of oil per year. Whereas the pipeline would
be wholly dedicated to oil transport, the rail line would have many
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alternative uses for Moscow.
US participation is desired for political as much as economic reasons.
Indeed, the rail line, unlike the pipeline, can readily be built without US
or Japanese know-how.
CANADA: TOUGH POLICY PROPOSED FOR RAW
MATERIAL EXPORTS
Ottawa has pr;)t,osed legislation empowering the federal government
to selectively restrict exports of nonfood raw materials. The legislation
would put more muscle behind efforts to encourage greater processing of
raw materials before they are exported. It also would strengthen Ottawa's
hand in controlling raw material exports authorized by the provincial
governments. Minister of Trade Gillespie estimates that the legislation would
help generate as much as $5 billion in new investment in processing facilities
over the next several years.
The legislation would particuiariy affect the United States and Japan.
US purchases of crude materials - mainly petroleum, natural gas, and iron
ore - amounted to $2.7 billion last year, 55% of Canada's total exports
of such goods. Japan imports nearly a billion dollars worth of Canadian
raw materials, such as metal ores, coal, and logs.
Canadian Nonfood Exports, 1973
Million US $
Crude
Materials
Intermediate
Products
Final
Products
Total
Total
5,007
8,187
8,260
21,454
United States
2,735
5,695
7,158
15,587
Japan
981
363
31
1,376
United Kingdom
311
769
160
1,241
West Germany
165
169
63
397
Other countries
814
1,191
847
2,853
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In the upcoming multilateral trade negotiations, Canada almost
certainly will seek greater access for its processed materials to markets in
other countries. Minister of Energy MacDonald recently stated that Canada
might be willing to associate with the less developed countries in demanding
improved access to markets and in extracting higher prices for raw materials.
* * ?3ir d(.
GROWING UNCERTAINTY IN EXCHANGE MARKETS
Central bankers are increasingly uneasy about international
market prospects,
concern t fiat growing political and economic
uncertainties in Italy and France will bring massive speculative outflows
of capital from these countries. Such outflows would complicate the
market's task of recycling surplus oil-producer revenue to consuming
countries.
The optimism expressed by Bank of Italy officials that Italian capital
outflows can be controlled was not shared by the other bankers.
Administrative measures aimed at curbing these outflows have not been
effective in the past. In addition, the central bankers feel that Rome will
have to end its costly defense of the lira, even though a decline in its
value probably would provoke further speculative outflows of funds. The
Bank of Italy has used the proceeds of the recent massive Eurodollar loans
to support the lira. Its market intervention in the first quarter cost about
$3 billion, or twice the present foreign exchange reserves. Because
indebtedness now exceeds $10 billion, Italy will find further borrowing more
difficult and expensive.
The franc is much stronger than the lira beca,-.,c of France's healthy
balance of payment.:. At the same time, it is weal.er than the mark and
vulnerable to speculative capital movements. The central bankers apparently
believe that fears of an election victory by Socialist candidate Francois
Mitterrand could lead to sizable capital movements from France. Similar
fears during the last presidential election intensified market pressure on the
franc. Investors already are seeking safer havens for their funds before new
capital controls can be imposed; large capital outflows to London and
Switzerland have been reported. If the outflow continues, Paris will have
to accept a weaker franc, at least temporarily, or commit some of its foreign
reserves to support the currency.
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CHILE: HIGH COPPER PRICES BUOY THE ECONOMY
Chile's economic prospects have been improved by the recent jump in
world copper prices. With the added copper earnings and resulting
improvement in its cradit rating, Chile is not seriously handicapped at
prevent by lack of foreign exchange. If copper prices fall sharply later this
year, the government's ability to deal with the mess inherited from Allende
will be weakened, especially next year.
Copper prices are now hovering near $1.25 per pound, up from $0.88 in
September 1973. Prices will continue strong for several months at least,
because consumers still are rebuilding stocks and speculators are hedging
against a possible US copper strike this summer. Copper production in 1974
is expected to reach 850,000 tons, 15% more than last year. Better worker
discipline and the renovation of mines, smelters, and refineries damaged
vndtr the Allende government are boosting output.
If copper prices average out at $1.00 per pound this year, copper
exports w;:' reach about $1.6 billion and total exports $1.9 billion. Imports
are projected at $2.1 billion, up 40% from 1973 because of increased
petroleum prices and rising agricultural imports. The resulting $200 million
trade deficit would be the smallest since 1971.
Prospects for obtaining credits in 1974 to cover imports of agricultural
commodities and capital goods have improved. A recent Paris Club
a&--cement rolling over $490 million of the debt repayments due this year
greatly eased the strain on Chile's weak reserve position. Santiago now will
pay only about $175 million to major Western creditors. About $100 million
owed other creditors, largely Communist nations and international institu-
tions, has not yet been renegotiated. Proceeds from foreign borrowing and
investment are expected to exceed debt. payments and other capital
outflows. Chile's balance-of-payments deficit in 1974 is expected to be only
$125 million, one-half of last year's.
During January-March, the cost of living soared by about 62%, largely as
a result of successive currency devaluations and high prices for imported
petroleum and agricultural commodities. These factors plus a wage hike in
the next month or so to restore some of the eroded purchasing power will
continue pushing prices up. The junta now merely hopes to keep the increase
in the cost of living below 200%, and even this goal is unlikely to be met.
Led by increased mineral output, GDP probably will grow by 5% to 7%
in real terms during 1974, compared with a 6% drop- last year. Although
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CHILE: Avt.Ma~ - op[.,2~J ?r .
on the Lond~:' ianva
US Cents per pound
140 I ...._
CHILE: Copper Production
1973
1974
atiel.dwl
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industrial output surged for-
ward in the month following
the coup, a drop in effective
demand is causing output to
slide. Agricultural production
will remain depressed this year
because most crops were
planted before the coup, and
large food imports will be
needed to supplement poor
harvests. In the hope that re??
newed foreign investment will
stimulate the economy, the
junta is pushing completion of
a liberalized investment code.
CHILE: International Trade
Million US $
Import' c
Deficit
Expor,s f.o.b.
1070 1011 1012 1P73 1974
(Pro(eored)
563090 CUM
TEL AVIV TO RIDE OUT ECONOMIC DIFFICULTIES
The weakened Israeli labor government, rather than risk recession, has
adopted expansionary policies. The higher import bill and increased aid
requirements stemming from these policies can be covered adequately by
Israel's substantial foreign exchange reserves and the US aid already
scheduled.
Economic recovery from the war has occurred faster than forecast.
Demobilization on the Egyptian front has been rapid. Industrial production
and construction are reviving, although they are not yet back to normal
levels. Real growth of GNP in 1974 probably will reach 5% to 7%. Personal
consumption should equal the 1973 level rather than fall by 10% as
originally forecast. The -ate of inflation will be high, perhaps 40% for the
year.
Since the cease-fire and the indecisive December elections, the
government has yielded to pressures to give the man in the street some
relief from the compulsory savings, additional taxes, and reduced
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consumption necessitated by the war. Following an inflation rate of 27'/,
in 1973, consumer prices jumped 121/, in Jairuary and February, partly
because of higher prices for imports -- particularly petroleum. Prices of
certain food items rose 50`7(,70% as government subsidies were reduced.
The government has moved to give some relief' from the higher prices and
to encourage business expansion. Cost-of-living allowances and welfare
benefits were raised recently. Government loans to investors are being
offered at low interest rates. The long-discussed value added tax is not being
implemented.
The budget for FY 1974 is expansionary. Expenditures of $8.5 billion
are 10% above the estimated 1973 level. Defense outlays claim 40% of
the budget, half for foreign arms and the remainder for local procurement,
salaries, and construction. On the civilian side, large increases are planned
for immigrant housing and welfare benefits. Although budget revenues fall
well short of' expenditures, the compulsory war loan of 7'/, of taxable
income is not being continued; only the voluntary loan will remain in effect.
The remaining deficit will be offset largely by US aid for both military
and civilian purposes.
The projected 4070 rate of inflation will not seriously hurt the trade
balance, since exports are extensively subsidized. Two-thirds of Israel's crude
oil imports can be offset with petroleum exports made possible by the
continuing use of Sinai oil. The good agricultural harvest expected in 1974
will hold down grain imports. Israel faces no immediate foreign exchange
problems despite a current account deficit of ot,~ and one-half times the
pre-war level. The forecast deficit of more than $2.f billion for 1974 shout.;
be offset by transfer;, on capital account and at least $1 billion in
US assistance. In addition, foreign exchange raised from World Jewry can
be drawn on if the trade balance deteriorates, and Tel Aviv can if necessary
draw on official reserves of about $1.8 billion.
UN SPECIAL SESSION ON RAW MATERIALS
Algerian President Boumedienne, sponsor and first speaker at the UN
Special Session on raw materials and development.. immediately tried last
week to politicize the issues. He called for a strengthening of relationships
among the "non-aligned" countries and cited recent oil developments as
proof of the developing countries' ability to shift the balance of economic
power in their favor. The developed countries, including the USSR, have
sought to emphasize cooperation between consuming and producing nations,
rather than confrontation.
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'Cite UN Session, still under way in New York, is the developing nations'
answer to the Washington Conference of oil-consuming countries. The LUCs
will dust off most of the economic harangues that are standard fare at
UNCTAD and other internationa: economic forums. They are expected to
focus most sharply on the issues of market access and adequate prices for
their products.
? The LDCs will again ask the developed countries io facilitate
LDC exports by eliminating tariffs and taxes on such goods,
dropping price supports on production of primary products,
and allocating a share of their markets to the LDCs.
? The LDCs will ask that prices of their goods be raised to
"remunerative levels" and then linked to prices of their
iniports. They also will demand international financing to
compensate for price levels considered non-remunerative.
? The meeting will discuss the implications of higher oil prices
for the poorer LDCs and call for action on high prices and
shortages of food supplies.
The sassion probably will not bring any new solutions. Instead, it will
serve as a forum for airing LDC grievances against the industrial nations
and will dramatize again the differences between them. It may also reveal
deep divisions among the LDCs.
Various groups of producing and consuming countries will continue
after the conference to pursue their own approaches to the raw materials
problem. Producers of some commodities will by to promote cooperative
efforts to force up prices. Other countries may take unilateral action to
earn more from their commodity exports; Canada, for example, is thinking
of restricting the sale of raw materials in crude form. Consuming countries
can be w.pected to explore further the value of bilateral deals or
international cooperation in assuring raw material supplies and avoiding
sudden jumps in prices.
LATIN AMERICA: BANANA PRODUCERS' UNION SLIPPING
The plans of seven Central and South American banana producing
countries to raise their revenues through an export tax are not progressing
smoothly. Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua,
and Panama, which account for 80'/0 of world banana exports, last month
organized a Union of Banana Exporting Countries (UPEB) along OPEC lines.
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They quickly agreed in principle to introduce a bananvi export tax that
could boost US retail prices by 25%. The three US-owned companies that
market the area's bananas and control most Central American production
strongly oppose the tax and may be able to derail it.
The UPEB members are not supporting the tax uniformly.
? Costa Rica, Honduras, Nit.?-ragua, and Panama, anxious to
offset increased oil costs, levied a tax of 2-1/2? per pound
effective this month.
? Guatemala and Colombia apparently are wavering on the tax
rate and have not set effective dates.
? Oil-producing Ecuador is considering only a 10 tax and is
delaying imposing it.
The marketing companies are using their considerable economic
leverage to exploit UPEB's lack of solidarity. They are playing one country
against another and using delaying tactics. Arguing that higher prices will
cut sales vclume 50% - not 10%-12% as UPEB estimates - they threaten
to cut production drastically in Honduras and Panama while favoring
Ecuador, the largest producer, and Costa Rica. In Panama, which imposed
the tax on 1 April, one company is simply not paying it.
Aided by producer disunity, the companies' tactics probably will cause
the scheme to collapse. Ecuador - and perhaps Colombia - may not impose
the tax at all if they believe sales volumes are likely to drop. If Ecuador
fails to participate, the tax's demise will be hastened. In Honduras, heavily
dependent on bananas for export earnings, some high-ranking government
officials oppose the tax. Since neither Honduras nor Panama can withstand
prolonged losses of bananas export earnings. they are unlikely to support
the tax for long.
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Notes
Argentine Corn Exports Moving at Rapid Pace
Argentina's bumper corn harvest of 9.6 million to 10.2 million tons
may yield an exportable surplus of about 6 million tons - 25% more than
last year. Expos is in the first quarter of some 500,000 tons, mostly to
Europe, were 1181/0 higher than in the first quarter of 1973. Larger exports
this year from South Africa as well as Argentina have contributed to the
recent det-linc, in orn prices and eased pressure on US supplies.
Drought in Eastern Europe
Drought threatens East European crops, especially winter wheat in
Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary. At the end of March, soil moisture was
13% to 45% below normal. Unless rainfall returns to normal in April and
May, sharply reduced yields of winter grain and forage crops can be
expected. Rain is also needed urgently for germination and early
development of spring-planted crops. If the drought continues, East
European grain imports next year could be well above the 8.1 million tons
estimated for FY 1974. Romania - normally a grain exporter - already
has asked for CCC credit to cover the purchase of one million tons of
US grain in FY 1975.
Reaction to US-Saudi Announcement
Foreign reaction to the 5 April announcement of US-Sludi
cooperation in economics, 'technology, industry, and defense so far has been
mild and positive. The agreement generally is seen as a stabilizing influence
in the Middle East that does not conflict with the interests of other Western
powers. Despite US claims that the agreement does not constitute an oil-for-
industrialization bilateral deal, Paris has inferred that the United States
should no longer object to French pursuit of bilateral arrangements. Other
governments probably take the same view. The agreement produced
practically no reaction in Japan; editorial comment has been absent and
some newspapers ignored the story completely. Saudi reaction in
government and business circles has been unanimously enthusiastic.
EC-Syria: Assad Seeks Forma! Ties with the Community
Syria is pushing for immediate negotiations on economic cooperation
with the EC. In a recent co;-.Terence with EC Commissioner Cheysson in
Damascus, the Syrians spelled out their interest in obtaining EC market
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preferences and cooperation in technical, scientific, indli'strial, and financial
matters. These initiatives represent a change in Assad's former lukewarm
attitude toward the EC and may reflect his desire to balance off the heavy
Soviet economic presence in the country. Syria has struck a number of
bilateral deals with the East since the last large Soviet credit agreement
in 1972. Now that Arab states have granted Syria considerable financial
aid, Assad may be interested in negotiating additional multilateral
development projects. A long list of possible projects was offered to the
EC official.
Paris Reports Trade Deficit
French trade in the first quarter of 1974 fell into deficit by $684
million, compared with a $280 million surplus for the same period a year
earlier. The turnaround was primarily caused by a near tripling of oil prices,
which raised the deficit in oil trade by about $800 million. France's position
on non-oil trade also has been deteriorating. By March, this trade was
roughly in balance.
SECRET 17 April 1974
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 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150017-8
GNP"
Constant Markel Pricus
United States
Japan
West Gur,nlany
Franca
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
RETAIL SALES"
Current Prices
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Lnited States
J,ipan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Canada
Euro?Dollars
17 April 1974
Office of Economic Research/CIA
Percent Clurop
Lolest Irons Previous
Quarter Quarter
73 IV
73 IV
73 IV
73 111
73 111
73 1
73 IV
Percent Change
Latest from Previous
Month Month
Mar 74
Nov 73
Dec 73
Nov 73
Nov 73
Aug 73
Jan 74
0.4
1.4
- 0.1
0.9
1.3
0.8
2.0
2.0
3.4
0.5
-2.4
0.7
6.7
2.9
INTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
1971)
4.7
8.3
3.1
5.6
3.9
3.1
6.1
Percent Change
Latest Iran Previous
Month Month 1970
Mar 74 -0.4 4.4
Feb 74 -0.5 8.2
Jan 74 -0.6 3.2
Jan 74 4.6 7.0
Jan 74 - 6.7 0.1
Jon 74 3.6 5.4
Jan 74 1.1 6.5
1970
10.5
14.6
7.8
5.6
12.1
12.4
11.2
Representative Rates
Prime finance paper
Call money
Interbank loans(3Months)
Call money
Local authority deposits
Finance paper
Three-month deposits
Average Annul;
Growth Hem Since
I Year
Earlier
4.0
7.0
3.4
0.1
0.0
5.2
7.2
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
I Year
Earlier
0
8.7
0.0
4.6
-7.0
19.7
5.5
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
I Year
Earlier
4.8
27.4
5.8
15.2
148
19.0
12.P
29 Mar
15 Mar
29 Mar
22 Mar
29 Mar
29 Mar
29 Me-
Previous
Quarter
1.5
5.8
- 0.3
3.8
5.2
3.4
11.6
3 Months
Earlier"
-7.9
-2,n
-4.3
3.4
-17.7
24.6
11.9
3 Months
Earlier"
5.5
32.0
7.'.
2t:.1
21.9
5.0
15.9
8.00
12.50
11.38
11.88
6.00
9.f. d
10.00
I Year
Earlier
6.63
5.50
NA.
7.25
7.32
5.13
8.63
WHOLESALE PRICES
Industrial
United States
Japan
West Germany
Franro
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
3 Mor'is
Earl r
B.t.1
12.00
13.00
NA.
16.91
9.50
10.13
1 Month
Earlier
7.25
12.00
10.38
12.75
14.63
8.50
8.88
Percent t,hange
Latest from Previous
Mc-th Month
Percent Changa
Latest Ifni" Pravwus I Year
Month Merrill 1970 Earlier
Mar 74 2.9 8.1 19.0
Felt 74 3.9 11.3 37.0
Jan 74 2.7 5.9 10.0
Fob 74 3.5 11.6 29.5
Mar74 3.1 10.0 18.7
Nov 73 1.0 9.0 21.1
Jan 74 3.3 0.4 19.8
Mar 74
Jec 73
Jan 74
Jan 14
For, 74
Oil 73
Feb 74
0.9
0
0.1
1.1
-0.5
1.6
0
1970
7.4
17.5
8.9
13.2
9.0
20.7
13.0
Average Annual
Growth Rate Sinra
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Clmngo
Latest from Previous I Year
Month Month I170 Earlier
Feb 74 1.3 6.0 10.1
Feb 74 3.4 11.0 26.3
Jan 74 0.7 6.2 7.4
Feb 74 1.3 7.3 11.5
Feb 74 1.7 9.5 13.2
Dec 73 1.4 7.7 12.5
Feb 74 1.0 5.8 96
Average Annual
Growth Role Since
I Year
Earlier
7.1
16.7
0.6
12.3
3.6
23.0
11.8
'Sansonldly adjusted.
"Average for latest 3 months aomparad
Yvkch varogs for pravlous 3 months.
3 Months
Earlier
30.7
89.7
20.5
62.6
41.3
17.5
27.8
3 Months
Earlier
12.1
56.3
11.8
15.6
19.0
14.5
9.9
3 Months
Earlier
7.4
14.7
9.8
18.7
0.2
21.4
13.3
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lo.er_
United Status
Japan
West Germany
Franco
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
TRADE BALANCE"
f.o.b./f.o.b.
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Million US $
Million US$ 1974 1873
Fob 74 7,010 14,720 10,042
Fob 74 3,031 7,204 5,405
Fob 74 0,527 13,541 9,324
Mar71 3,071 10,542 7,913
Fah 74 2,616 4,871 4,259
Jan 74 1,906 1,960 1,494
Fob 74 2,458 4,902 3,941
Million US $
rob 74 7,390
Fob 74 4,085
Fob 74 4,376
Mar74 3,953
Fob 74 3,592
Jan 74 2,170
Fob 74 2,507
Percent
C;mnlu
40.0
33.3
45.2
33.2
14.4
31.6
24.4
Million US S Porconl
1974 1973 Chango
13,860 10,822 I 28.1
7,559 3,810 98.4
9,363 7,4491 25.7
11,220 7,633 47.1
C,1Cf 4,630 44.1
2,170 I 1,481 46,G
4,733 3,63? 30.1
Million US S
Fob 74 220
Fob 74 -453
Feb 74 2,151
Mar74 -282
Fob 74 -976
Jan74 -205
Fob 74 -49
1974
860
-275
4,178
-684
1,828
-205
169
1973
-780
1 655
1,875
280
-371
0
304
Change
1,640
-1,931
2,303
- 964
-1.457
-212
-135
BASIC BALANCE"
Currant and Long ?Term?Capital Transactions
latest Period Cumulative (Million US $I
United States'
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
73 IV
Feb 14
Feb 74
73 IV
73 III
72 IV
73 III
Million US $ 1973 1972
200 1,186 -9,838
-1,690 -9,/02 2,137
1,161 3,950 4,566
-352 -2,391 -369
- 521 -1,840 -1,252
800 N.A. 2,983
238 267 574
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
End of Billion US S Jun 1970
Feb 74 14.6 18.3
Mar 74 12.4 4.1
Fob 74 32.0 8.8
Mar 74 8.1 4.4
Mar 74 8.4 2.8
Fob 74 5.4 4.7
Mar 74 8.1 4.3
'Seasonally adjusted.
"Converted Into US dollars a! current market rates of exchange.
17 April 1974
Change
11,024
-11,839
-616
-2,022
- 587
N.A.
-308
3 Months
Earlier
14.4
12.2
34.1
8.5
8.5
6.1
5.8
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
EXPGRT PRICES
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Get many
France
United K.,.,,rtom
Italy
Canada
IMPORT PRICES
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Percent Chango
Latest from Previous
Month Month
Jan 74 I 0.6 I
Percent Chang6
Latest Irc:,l Praviuus
Montt, Month
Average Atli let
Grewln Role S;'co
I Year
Earlier
26.C
27.4
21.8
31.9
17.3
23.7
20.8
3 Months
Earlier
27.5
11.6
-37.8
1 5.7
1 2.4
29.1
50.1
3 Months
Earlier
27.5
34.1
14.5
34.9
33.4
17.3
44.8
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latest from Previous
Month Merrill 1970
Jon 74 3.7 14.3
Nov 73 3.7 4.6
Jan 74 6.2 5.0
Oct 73 -1.5 5.3
Doc 73 5.2 16.4
Oct 73 3.4 14.0
Dec 73 24 6.3
EXCHANGE RATES Spot Bata
As of 12 April 74
Japanlrerp
West Germany Mark)
France (Franc) 'Pound
United Kingdom Sterling)
Italy (Lira)
Canada (Dollar)
US S
Per Unit
0.00381
0.39250
0.20350
2.36100
0.00157
1.02940
Dec 66
30.81
56.13
0.79
-15.39
- 1.81
11.60
1 Year 3 Months
Earlier Ear lie
34.4 58.6
19.8 31 0
19.5 82.3
14.3 35.2
43.1 53.1
38.7 30.8
15.8 19.5
18 Dec
1971
11.15
26.49
3.35
- 9.39
- 8.60
3.17
19 Mar
1973
-5.10
10.84
-7.67
-4.06
-11.19
3.18
TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATES"*"
As of 12 April 74 Percent Change from
5 Apr
1974
0.70
- 0.43
- 1.31
- 1.30
0.51
0.08
18 Dec 19 Mar 5 Apr
Dec 66 1971 1913 1974
United States -16.79 -7.39 -0.73 0.14
Japan 19.32 5.46 -6.50 0.82
West Germany 33.34 16.23 11.19 - 0.01
France -21.36 -7.85 -10.29 - 0.90
United Kingdom -34.51 -20.29 -5.91 - 1.13
Italy -22.65 -21.32 -14.44 - 0.02
Canada 8.43 1.83 47 0.01
"Weighting is based on each listed country's trade with 18 other industrializod
countries to reflect the competitive impact of exchange-rate variations
among the major currencies.
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