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December 22, 2016
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September 29, 2009
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April 24, 1974
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Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150019-6 Secret Economic Intelligence Weekly Secret CIA No. 8031/74 24 April 1974 Copy N2 354 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150019-6 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150019-6 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150019-6 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150019-6 SI',(;It1s'I' Pie Saudi Arabia Wants Foreign Investment Outside support for industrialization is being encouraged by new investment policy. I China: Small Plants Perk Up Economic Development Small plants boost the agricultural sector at low cost. Soviet Chemical Industry: Market for Western Equipment Shortcomings in Soviet chemical machine building will compel reliance on advanced Western equipment. India: Economic Problems Pile Up inadequate grain supplies, industrial lags, and trade deficits add up to a bleak 1974. 4 Japan: Soaring Wages and Slipping Production Inflationary wage hikes make government hesitant to stimulate economy. 5 Canada: Test of the New Foreign Investment Law Ottawa adopts a tough policy on screening takeovers of domestic firms. 6 Peru: The Anchovies Are Back 7 Soviet Birth and Death Rates Inching Up 8 Possible Attempt to Set Copper Prices 8 Dominican Republic Seeks Better Deal from ALCOA 8 Comparative Indicators Recent Data Concerning Internal and External Economic Activities Al The oil situation is now being covered mainly in International Oil Developments, published each Thursday morning. SECRET 24 April J 974 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150019-6 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150019-6 S I',C R E'I' ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY Articles SAUDI ARABIA WANTS FOREIGN INVESTMENT The Saudi government is welcoming foreign investment - less to attract capital than to insure sound economic development. The Saudis' fast-growing wealth and favorable investment climate have generated widespread business interest abroad. In the past year, investors have proposed hundreds of joint ventures. Saudi officials foresee as much as $2 billion worth of foreign investment annually over the next several years. Total foreign investment in Saudi Arabia now amounts to about $2.5 billion, of which four-fifths is held by US firms. The government favors competition among potential investors as the most effective means for selecting projects and obtaining low-cost production. Foreign partners are valued for their administrative and technical expertise and for their access to international markets. The Saudis prefer a minimum of 25% capital participation by a foreign firm to assure its interest in the venture; private Saudi participation improves chances of acceptance by the government. Investment opportunities range from multi-billion-dollar industrial complexes to small projects to serve the local market. The larger projects will feature energy-intensive and capital-intensive industries producing primarily for export; these are favored because of the small domestic market and lack of skilled labor. The Saudis hope to use their huge output of natural gas - now wasted - in plants producing; iron, steel, aluminum, magnesium, copper, zinc, and other metals. The Eastern Province, along the Persian Gulf, is to be developed as the primary industrial center. Under the 1975-80 development plan, several Large petrochemical projects, fertilizer plants, and oil refineries will be added to existing facilities in this area. A smaller program of industrial and agricultural development is under consideration for western Saudi Arabia, around Jidda. To curb the rush to urban areas that usually accompanies industrialization, the Saudis are seeking to create modern communities centered on new local industries. SECRET 24 April 1974 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85TOO875RO01500150019-6 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150019-6 SF'CRE I' from customs duties, and exemption of a foreign partner's share from the tax on corporate profits. The government also will assist new companies by providing space at industrial parks and helping to train Saudi workers. The government has assured foreign investors that it will respect private ownership and allow capital to move freely. Other incentives, intended primarily for Saudi investors, should also benefit their foreign partners -- loans on easy terms, exemption of imported equipment and raw materials CHINA: SMALL PLANTS PERK UP ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT* China's small plants program has speeded up the modernization of the countryside through the vigorous mustering of low-cost labor and materials. Hundreds of thousands of' small plants located in outlying areas now contribute more than half of output of chemical fertilizers, 50%% of the cement, 301/o of the coal, 15% of the iron and steel, much of the farm machinery, and 5% of the electric power. The quality and technical level of output, while below the standards of major urban plants, are sufficient for simple rural uses. Given China's vast population and inadequate land and capital, the small plants program makes sense economically; failures are attributable to overzealous implementation during periods of political turbulence, such as the Leap Forward. Economic benefits from the program include: ? Provision of additional materials, equipment, and power needed to boost agricultural production; ? Fuller use of China's huge rural labor force; ? Reduction of transport costs; ? Diffusion of capital plant and technology into the countryside: and ? Increase in local control over local economic tasks, which lessens the burden on central administrative resources. for the further development and upgrading of small plants are excellent because their basic economic and political advantages will persist. The Chinese tout the small plants program as a part of Chairman Mao's general political design - of preventing the dominance of a central bureaucracy, reducing the cultural differences between city and countryside, and establishing self-sufficient rural bases for strategic defense. Prospects * For further details, see the forthcoming OER report, China: Role of Small Plants in Economic Developmen 2 SECRET 24 April 1974 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150019-6 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150019-6 SFI(:I( L'I' SOVIET CHEMICAL INDUSTRY: MARKET FOR WESTERN EQUIPMENT The USSR, unable to supply enough equipment for its chemical industry, must continue to rely on the West, especially for advanced items. Leonid Kostandov, Minister of the Chemical Industry, recently blamed shortages on the failure of machine building plans to reflect the needs of the chemical industry. Moreover, production of chemical equipment in 1973 fell 12`% below plan, the shortfalls being particularly pronounced in equipment for modern production processes. In his critique, Kostandov pointed out that: ? Output of major lines of equipment satisfies only 50%-70% of chemical industry requirements, far less than previously claimed. w Production of plastics processing equipment remained practically unchanged during 1966-72, while plastics output more than doubled. ? Inadequate output of corrosion-resistant eouipment compels the substitution of pumps and other equipment ill-suited for chemical plant operations. Delays in deliveries from Eastern Europe have aggravated the shortages. In the two years 1971-72, the. area shipped only 21% of the $1.4 billion worth of East European chemical equipment scheduled for the Soviet 1971-75 plan. Kostandov's complaints help explain the record 1973 orders for Western chemical equipment - estimated at $900 million. Although orders in 1974 may not mctch those of 1973, current negotiations suggest that they will be large. Western firms will have a new opportunity to make sales in September during a petrochemical trade fair to be held in Moscow. 3 SECRET 24 April 1974 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150019-6 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150019-6 SI',(1RE'I' INDIA: ECONOMIC PROBLEMS PILE UP* India faces a bleak year of tight grain supplies, retarded industrial production, and a massive foreign payments deficit. Grain reserves were exhausted during the 1972 drought, imports in 1973 were minimal, and the 1973/74 grain crop is not providing the surplus needed to rebuild depleted stocks. Meanwhile, India needs an additional 2.5 million to 3 million tons of' grain each year to feed the 14 million persons added to the population. The 1974/75 crop will be hurt by fertilizer shortages; weather remains the major unpredictable factor. A good crop in 1974/75 would meet immediate consumption needs without doing much to rebuild inventories. A poor crop would push New Delhi's grain import requirements up to 10 million tons or more. Most of this grain, which would cost India a minimum of $2 billion, would have to conic from the United States. Industrial production, recently increasing at less than 5%, will continue to be held back by government restrictions on private foreign investment and by inadequate funding of public investment. Transport bottlenecks and chronic energy shortages also impede production. New Delhi must import two-thirds of its petroleum requirements, and increased crude oil production is a long way off. Coal production and construction of new power stations lag far behind schedule. Increased prices of petroleum, fertilizer, food, and industrial raw materials will push the import bill up 43%/o to an estimated $4.7 billion in the fiscal year ending 31 March 1975. For instance, fertilizer imports, even at last year's inadequate level, will cost an extra $300 million in 1974. Prices for the country's key exports - cotton textiles, tea, and jute - have not increased commensurately. India's exports will increase only about 13% to $3.4 billion. Under these conditions, a balance-of-payments deficit of $2.3 billion is expected. About $825 million would be offset by the $200 million remaining from the Soviet food loan, the $250 million oil credits from Iran and Iraq, and a recently requested $375 million IMF standby credit. Additional means to finance the remaining $1.4 billion deficit would be required. The government, as always, will be reluctant to draw down its foreign exchange reserves, now totaling $1.1 billion. Unused non-project aid of about $450 million cannot be drawn down rapidly, because it is generally tied to specific products and countries. If large amounts of new foreign aid are not forthcoming, the government would probably squeeze the volume of imports down below last year's austere level. ? For further details, sec CIA ER IM 74-5, India: Economic Performance and Prospects, April 25X1 1974 4 SECRET 24 April 1974 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150019-6 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150019-6 S I CRE'I The United States, for its part, has been reviewing its economic policies toward India since December 1971, when US aid was suspended. US officials will discuss the resumption of aid with Indian officials in New Delhi later this month. Both sides have taken steps to move away from a donor/client relationship. US aid, if resumed, will be small compared with the $500 million per year provided during the late 1960s. JAPAN: SOARING WAGES AND SLIPPING PRODUCTION The sharp wage hikes won in organized labor's "spring offensive" will keep Japan's inflation rate in the 20%-25110 range this year, making it one of the highest among the developed countries. Tokyo thus will move cautiously in trying to stimulate a flagging economy. So far, wage increases averaging out 30% have been won by railway employees, seamen, postal emplovees, auto workers, steel workers, and shipbuilders. Small and medium-sizad manufacturing firms generally have been slow in coming to terms. The recent credit squeeze, rising materials costs, and slumping demand have proc;,.iced a wave of bankruptcies among such firms. Labor's push for big pay increas..-s was spurred by rapidly rising consumer prices. In the second half of 1973, consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 20%; by January, real wages were 4% lower than a year earlier. Unions sought gains that would both compensate for recent price increases and offer protection against future rises. Government units such as the national railways and postal system offered little resistance because the ruling party wanted to avert labor disputes before the coming parliamentary elections. The new pay increase will push up prices much more strongly than did the 20% pay increase in 1973. Under the impetus of the boom, last year's increase was largely offset by sharp gains in labor productivity. With production sagging and firms observing the custom of not laying off workers, productivity gains will be small this year. In 1971, during a less severe slump, labor productivity rose by only 4`7,,, compared with the long-term average of 11%. Other inflationary factors should ease as the year wears on. The jumps in international oil prices during the past seven months are not likely to be repeated, although past increases still are working through the system to the consumer. Electric power rates, for example, will have to be hiked soon. 5 SECRET 24 April 1974 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150019-6 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150019-6 Sli'CRE'1' Recent surges in the cost of key imports such as coal and copper are expected to taper olT, and grain prices should remain below last year's highs. On the demand side, fiscal and monetary restraints have brought a noticeable cooling. Meanwhile, production continues weak. Industrial output declined 2% in December, stagnated in .anuary, slipped another half percentage point in February, and showed little if any improvement in March. Inventory buildups and a 5% drop in shipments of manufactures in February suggest that further production cuts are coming. Demand for automobiles and steel is way clown, and orders for machinery (excluding ships) and construction have declined sharply. The course of produc- tion during the rest of the year depends on how quickly and decisively Tokyo eases monetary and fiscal restraints and relaxes price controls. Because the high inflation rate is a sensi- tive political issue, the gov- ernment will continue to re- strain demand at least until the summer election is past. Minister of Finance Fukuda and central bank head Sasaki imply that restrictive pol- icies will be maintained be- yond that time, despite the pinch on economic growth. We still expect real GNP to grow between 3% and 5% this yea INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION' Annual Growth Rate (Percent) 17.6 150 140 s 130 120 0 110 10011i ]]II I I I I I I J FM AMJJ AS OND JFMAMJJ AS 0 N DJ F 'SusonslN Adjusted CANADA: TEST OF THE NEW FOREIGN INVESTMENT LAW Ottawa intends to stringently apply the new foreign investment law, which became effective on 9 April. A test case of the law's first phase, which provides for the screening of takeovers of Canadian firms, involved the purchase by a medium-sized US manufacturer of a 49% interest in a Canadian company in February. Although not bound by the new law, the 6 SECRET 24 April 1974 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150019-6 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150019-6 SEC R El' US company agreed to Ottawa's request for government review of the transaction. In his review, Trade Minister Gillespie emphasized that the government wanted the manufacturer: ? To submit a letter of commitment detailing specific actions the firm was prepared to take to benefit the Canadian economy. ? To refrain from limiting exports through licensing restrictions or sales agret!n-,,nts with its Canadian partner. ? To keel) a large share of the firm's earnings in Canada, either through reinvestment or distribution of stock dividends. Gillespie apparently was conducting a dry run to uncover weaknesses in the first phase of the law and to work out interpretations favorable to Canada's interests. Under this phase, takeover bids for Canadian companies with assets above $250,000 or annual sales exceeding $3 million will be screened by Ottawa to control the number of such firms passing out of Canadian hands. A second phase, which regulates establishment by foreign firms of new businesses in Canada and expansion by foreign firms already in Canada into unrelated activities, will become effective at an unspecified date. Ottawa's use of the new law will be tempered by consideration of Canada's dependence on foreign investment. Ambitious plans to exploit natural resources over the rest of the decade will require large amounts of foreign investment. Moreover, most of the provinces are actively seeking foreign investment as part of their industrial development programs. Peru's anchovy catch for 1974 may be more than 4 million tons, compared with 1.8 million tons last year. The size and quality of the anchovies have been excellent, and fishmeal productic,,, is expected to total about 900,000 tons. Encouraging reports of the Peruvian catch have contributed to a drop in world soybean meal prices from a January high of $ 173 per ton to $115 per ton. The soybean meal price may recover, however, because fishmeal has remained at a high of $400 per ton. 7 SECRET 24 April 1974 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150019-6 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150019-6 SFICRl1'1' Soviet Birth and Death Rates Inching Up The decline in Soviet birth and death rates of the last half' century has been reversed, if only temporarily. The rise in the birth rate since 1970 results from the growing proportion of women in prime child-bearing ages and the increase in the birth rate among these women. A tendency toward earlier marriage suggests that couples are having children earlier; it is not yet clear that family size is actually increasing. The rising death rate seems to be related to increased industrialization and the accelerated pace of urban life. The offsetting trends in birth and death rates have kept annual population growth practically unchanged at about 1% since 1965. In the United States, by contrast, a declining birth rate and a stable death rate reduced annual nonulation growth to 0.71/o in 1973, compared with 1.2% in 1965. Possible Attempt to Set Copper Prices Next week four major copper exporters - Chile, Peru, Zambia, and Zaire - are meeting in Austria, with copper prices one of the major topics. Trade sources belic?e that the copper exporters will seek to set a minimum copper price in a range of 75 to 90 cents a pound. This range is well below the current price of about $1.30 per pound. With world copper supplies tight through 1974, prices are not expected to fall to this range. Nonetheless, the excursion into price setting could break the ice for more significant price setting in the future. Dominican Republic Seeks Better Deal from ALCOA The Dominican Republic intends to renegotiate its contract with ALCOA Exploration Company. The firm currently exports about 1.0 million tons of Dominican bauxite annually to the United States; these shipments meet 41% of US needs. Santo Domingo will insist on increased revenues. Moreover, it will probably pressure the company to process the bauxite locally if supplies prove adequate to justify a $100 million to $150 million alumina plant. Dominican officials meanwhile are considering joining the new Intergovernmental Bauxite Association, 'hose members already account for about 80% of Free World bauxite exports. 8 SECRET 24 April 1974 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150019-6 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150019-6 INTERNAT. ECONOMIC INDICATORS Al,?,al,. Annn.,l WIIU1 (SAI I I'IIIC1 h k 1 A,... Annual I;niwill Ilahr ti~m, il 1''.1 I ,,nwtli IIii, Snim I Ii i hnm 1'I' ,inr, I Yv?r, I :11 1 Itnn, I' l'. I Yl it :IMnnih. Iluaner Ilunr hn I a, hr, (her lei Minnh M n,nh Iy;11 f?inm, Inlm, Illllir!II Slate'; 141 14 411 114 56 United States Mat 14 2!l 8 1 196 301 Japan I IV 14 It :I /11 58 Japan Mar 14 07 I1 2 354 482 West Germany /:I IV 01 .II 34 l1 3 West Germany Jan 14 2 1 5 9 1116 205 Fri ce /3 III 119 50 li l 38 France Feb 14 :15 11 F. 295 626 Wnled Knn)dunl 1;1 11I 13 :i !I li ll 52 United Kingduni Mar74 1, 31 100 187 413 Italy 1:11 118 31 2 34 Italy Nov 1:1 I 13 86 212 118 (:anad,l 1:1 IV it Il l 12 II6 Canada Jan 74 3.3 94 198 218 Avrrayr AunuaI 6 1t1wlh lidh! 51,0 0 vv Aunu il G, Alt, Hale S tire Mnnlh ti111?1, I yed, I'17n lame, Wolf's lot he, ?? Lnesl Near Prevmus Mnn,h Mnnlll 1971 1 Year 3 Months E oilier Either (United Stales M,u 14 114 I 44 Il 19 United States Mar 74 1.1 5.L 1 10.3 14.0 Japan Ich14 115 82 81 29 Japan Feb 74 3.4 11.0 263 56.3 West Germany ,Ian 14 ll(i 32 116 4 3 West Germany Feb 74 0.9 63 76 10.2 France Fc'? 14 115 66 41 20 France Fell 74 1.3 7.3 115 156 United Kingdom Jan 14 13 / 8 I 111 111 United Kingdom Feb 74 1.7 95 132 19.0 Italy Jan 14 36 54 191 246 Italy Dec 73 14 7.7 12 5 145 Canada Fell 14 1 2 6 7 45 8.7 Canada Feb 74 1.0 5.8 96 9.9 1 I ,1 I I 11 ; ., Ave, aqe Annual Grnwlh Hdh! SeeP Aver ege Annual Growth Hate Since I .,Ie?,I 1'en en, Champs hum Prnvmus I Year :I Months Prn: our Churls --- Idlest Ito Pitrvnms 1 Year 3 Monihs Month %I it, 1111 En, tier Falilr" Mona, Morrill 1911) E ar her Earlier ?? United States Mar 14 2 0 105 48 55 Unit ed States Mar 74 0.9 7.4 1.1 14 Japan Nov 13 3 4 146 214 32.0 Japa n Dec 73 0 1 16 7 147 West Germany lblc /J ll 5 18 58 16 Wes t Garman y Jan 74 0.1 8.9 0.6 98 France Nov /3 2 4 56 152 20.1 Fran ce Jan 74 1.1 13.2 12.3 10.1 United Kingdom Nov IJ j II 1 121 141) 219 Unit ed Kingdo m Feb 74 -05 9.0 3.6 02 Italy Au0 /3 6 1 12.4 190 5.0 Italy Oct 73 1.6 20 7 23.0 214 Canada Jan 74 2 9 112 129 15.9 Cana da Feb 74 0 130 1 16 13.3 I Year 3 Mamhs I Month nrquetrttiatwe Nail. tatest Oate Earlier Earlier Ear her United States Prime Imance paper 29 Mar 8.00 66 3 1 800 125 Japan Call money 15 Mar 12 50 5.50 12 00 1200 West Germany Interbank loans (31101onlhl 29 Mar 11 38 NA 13.00 10 38 France Call money 22 Mar 11 88 7,25 NA 12.75 United Kingdom Local authority deposits 29 Mar 16.00 7.32 16.91 1463 'Seasonally adjusted. "Average for Iate;t 3 months compared Canada Finance paper 29 Mar 9.00 5 13 9.50 8.50 with average for previous 3 months. Eurn Dollars Three month deposits 29 Mar 10 00 8 63 10.13 8.88 24 April 1974 Office of Economic Research/CIA Al Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150019-6 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150019-6 EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS I XPUIII S' Inh United Stales ,Japan West Germany France )Jnltud Kingdom Italy Canada IMPORTS' till) United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada TRADE BALANCE' fob/lab United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada Milluni 115 S I Feb 14 1,611) Mar 14 3.139 full 14 6 521 Mar 14 3,611 Mar 14 2,830 Jan 14 1,966 Feb 14 2,458 Million US S Full 74 1,391) Mar 74 4,390 Feb 14 4.316 Mar 14 3,953 Mar 14 3.890 Jan 14 2.170 Feb 14 2,501 Whirl US S 1!114 1913 I:haneu 14,120 10,042 466 11.023 8,1)82 30.4 13,541 9,324 452 10,542 1.913 33 2 7.704 6,434 197 1,960 1,494 31.6 4,902 3,941 24.4 CuII l ilrvu Million IIS S Pen cot 1914 1111,1 L'hanq', 13,800 IU.822 281 11.949 6.356 88,0 9,303 1,449 25.7 11,226 1,633 47.1 1 U,592 7,313 44.8 2,170 1.487 46.0 4,733 3.637 30.1 Mdhin (IS S 1914 1913 Feb 14 220 860 . 780 Mar 74 -651 -926 1,725 Feb 74 2,151 4,178 1,875 Mar74 282 -684 280 Mar 74 - 1.060 -2,888 -878 Jan74 -205 205 8 Fob 74 49 169 304 Change 1,040 2,651 2,303 - 964 -2.010 -212 135 EXPORT PRICES IISS United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada EXPORT PRICES National Currency United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada IMPORT PRICES National Currency United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdoi 1 Italy Canada Pu1.enl Chdogu l itesl floor Pnl villas Mouth Month 19111 Jan 14 00 102 Nov 13 03 13 2 Jan 74 15 10 0 Oct 73 2.9 1. 9 Doc 73 0.1 8.7 act 73 2.1 11 6 Duc 73 3.1 10 2 'un:um Change- LAW mes Ptuvlous Mono) Month Jan 74 Nov 73 Jon 74 Oct 73 Dec 73 Oct 73 Dec 73 0.8 3.6 1.1 1.8 3.1 2.4 3.1 3.7 4.6 19.8 31 0 8.2 5.0 19.5 82.3 -1.5 5.3 14.3 35.2 5.2 16.4 43.1 53.1 3.4 14.0 38.7 30.8 2.4 6.3 15.8 19.5 Average Annual Grnwlli 11 ,1111 Since I Year Ianher 26.6 21.4 21.8 31.9 1'7.3 23.7 26.8 :1 Months tither 21.5 11.0 378 15.7 12.4 29.1 50.1 Average Annual Growth linle Since I Year Earlier 26.6 14.9 7.1 10, 7 18.8 20.4 27.0 3 Munlhs father 27.5 34.1 14.5 34.9 33.4 17.0 44.8 Average Annual Growth Rate Since Percent Clran(lr------ --- Latest Inmr Pi !vunis I Year 3 Months Month Month 19111 Earlier Earlier Jan 74 3.7 14.3 34.4 58.6 Nov 73 Jan 74 Oct 73 Dec 73 Oct 73 Due 73 BASIC BALANCE" Current and Long Term Capital Transactions (Seal Period Cuninleirve IMelion US S) United States' Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada 73 IV Mar 74 Feb 74 73 IV 13 IV 12 IV 73 IV Million US S 200 1.150 1.161 -352 1.394 800 27 Change 11,024 11,839 -816 -2.022 !,175 N.A. -779 United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada 1973 1.188 -9.702 3,950 -2,391 -3,164 NA. 376 1912 -9,838 2,137 4,566 -369 1,989 2.983 1,155 Billion US S Lifesl Month --"-- - ---- I Year 3 Munlhs End ill Billion US S Jun 1910 Earlier Earlier Feb 74 I 14.6 16.3 14.0 14.4 Mar 74 12.4 4.1 18.1 12.2 Feb 74 32.0 8.8 29.7 34.1 Mar 74 8.1 4.4 11.2 8.5 Mar 74 64 2.8 6.0 8.5 Feb 74 5.4 4.7 8.4 6.1 Mar 74 6.1 4.3 6.2 5.8 'Seasonally adjusted. "Converted into US dollars at current market retes of exchange. 24 April 1974 EXCHANGE RATES Spot Oat, As of 19 April 74 Japan (Yeni West Germany Ma lrrhl France Uranrl (Pound United Kin,,idom Stelling) Italy n;-;ll Canada 1Doearl US S Per Ural 0.00361 0.39840 0.20570 2.38450 0.00157 1.00350 19111 10.2 4.8 2.7 6.6 9.8 8.3 8.7 18 Dec 19 Mar Dec 66 1971 1973 30.77 11.12 -5.13 57.68 27.75 11.95 1.88 4.47 6.67 -14.55 -8.49 -3.11 -1.81 -8.60 -11.19 12.26 3.78 3.79 TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATES' As of 19 April 74 Percent Change from United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada Dec 66 -17.34 19.06 33.82 -20.95 -33.96 -23.42 8.89 18 Dec 1971 -7.93 5.21 16.69 -7.45 -19.76 -22.08 2.29 19 Mar 1973 -1.27 -6.75 11.64 -9.89 -5.39 -15.19 3.93 12 Apr 1974 -0.58 0.03 0.44 0.39 0.52 -0.75 0.45 "'Weighting is based on each listed country's trade with , d other industrialized countries to reflect the competitive impact of exchange-rate variations among the major currencies. 12 Apr 1974 0.25 0.99 1.08 1.00 0 0.59 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150019-6