ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
Document Type:
Collection:
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150022-2
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RIPPUB
Original Classification:
S
Document Page Count:
13
Document Creation Date:
December 22, 2016
Document Release Date:
September 28, 2009
Sequence Number:
22
Case Number:
Publication Date:
May 15, 1974
Content Type:
REPORT
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Secret
Economic Intelligence meekly
Secret
CIA No. 8034/74
15 May 1974
Copy N2 159
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Page
Rome Further Tightens Import Restrictions Government limits credit
expansion in attempt to cut trade deficit.
Japan: Flagging Demand for Imported Raw Materials Economic slowdown
eases pressure on world commodity markets.
Developed Countries: Prospects for 1974 Outlook for year still glum
despite upward revision of first-half forecasts. 2
Canada: Inflation Issue Heats Lip Accelerating prices helped topple
Trudeau government. 4
Argentina Increases Economic Relations with the USSR
Rail Strike .Adds to India's Economic Woes
UK-USSR Ten-Year Cooperation Agreement
Algeria Awards Refinery Contract to Italian Firm
Dollar Decline Continues
Eastern Europe: Rain Brings Partial Relief
Summary of a Recent Publication
Comparative Indicators
Recent Data Concerning Internal and External
Economic Activities
The oil situation is now being covered mainly in
International Oil Developments, published each
Thursday morning.
Note: Comments and queries regarding this publication are welcomed.
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Secret
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
Articles
ROME FURTHER TIGHTENS IMPORT RESTRICTIONS
Rome has chosen to attack its payments problem by reducing its trade deficit
rather than by inducing short-term capital inflows.
Last week the government required importers to deposit 50% of the value
of their foreign purchases in a non-interest bearing account for six months. The
Bank of Italy now has revoked the authority of domestic banks to guarantee foreign
loans to Italian importers. Since many foreign banks will be reluctant to extend
unguaranteed loans, Italian importers will be forced to turn to an already tight
domestic market for financing. This followup measure thus improves chances of
effecting the 8% cutback in imports Rome is hoping for.
The Bank of Italy has limited overall credit expansion to 15% from March
1974 to March 1975. Because most banks already have reached their limit,
additional funds will have to come mainly from loan repayments. Small importers
will be hit hardest because they are unable to obtain credit locally or to attract
unguaranteed loans from abroad.
The Italian restrictions have not yet led to any countermeasures by most of
italy's major trading partners. But France - concerned about its second largest
market - has set up a special body to examine the consequences of Italian
restrictions -,nd to consider remedial measures. In addition, a number of French
banks and farm organizations have agreed to help cattle breeders and dairy
producers finance their Italian sales. About 80% of French live cattle exports went
to Italy last year.
JAPAN: FLAGGING DEMAND FOR IMPORTED RAW MATERIALS
A marked slowdown in the growth of Japan's purchases of raw materials should
ease pressure on international commodity markets during the next several months.
The volume of Japan's raw material imports in January and February was
up only 1%, compared with the same period in 1973; demand will remain sluggish
for at least the next several months. Such imports swelled by 20% last year, a
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major factor in the upward pressure on world commodity prices. Japan accounted
for roughly one-half of the increase in world copper consumption and a substantial
part of the rise in demand for steel scrap, bauxite, rubber, and other industrial
materials. Underlying this demand was the near record 17% increase in industrial
production.
Japan: Trend,.
import Volame
1973
Jan-Feb 1974
1973
Percent Change
Jan-Feb 1974
over
over
over
over
1972
Jan-Feb 1973
1972
Jan-Feb 1973
Iron and steel scrap
116
-57
Bauxite
12
2
Hides and skins
11
-34
Non-cereal feeds
40
4
Wool
.6
-26
Natural rubber
24
5
Copper
34
-20
Soybeans
7
6
Cotton
9
-11
Iron ore
21
17
Logs and lumber
17
-8
Coal and coke
15
19
Wheat
5
-3
Corn
28
21
Crude oil
16
Sorghum
30
Copper ore
37
2
With industrial output falling in recent months, demand for certain US
exports - steel scrap, wood products, hides, and skins - has fallen sharply.
Nonetheless, Japan's overall purchases of US materials in January - February 1974
were 10% above the same period in 1973 because of strong demanG for US coal
and farm products. Imports of US coal and corn were up 67% and 30%, respectively.
Higher prices have raised Japan's raw material import bill markedly even
though volume has increased little. Oil imports are running at about the early 1973
level of 5.3 million b/d, while prices have quadrupled. The prices of conner, rubber,
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: PROSPECTS FOR 1974
.evised OECD forecasts and recent CIA estimates indicate that the economic
situation of the developed countries in the first half of 1974 will turn out somewhat
better than anticipated in January. Even so, depressed real growth, soaring inflation,
and mounting current account deficits will dominate the economic outlook for
Canada, :Japan, and Western Europe.
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Developed Countries: Economic Projections
Total 1974 1st Half 1974 2d Half 1974
1973 Estimated Estimated Estia-Wted
OECD] CIA OECD 1 CIA OECD 1 CIA
Real GNP Growth (Percent change
from previous period)
Canada 7.1 4.7 4.5 4.8 5.0 4.3 4.0
Japan 11.0 1.1 4.0 -2.3 1.0 5.5 6.0
France 6.1 4.5 3.8 4.4 3.8 3.8 4.6
West Germany 5.3 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.6 3.1 4.6
Italy 5.9 4.8 3.5 3.6 2.0 2.6 1.0
United Kingdom 5.9 -2.5 -2.0 -8.7 -8.0 8.3 9.0
GNP Deflator (Percent change
from precious period)
Canada 7.1 9.1 8.2 9.7 8.5 8.0 7.8
Japan 12.2 22.7 25.0 25.5 32.0 19.6 10.0
France 6.9 10.0 10.0 11.9 11.0 7.8 9.0
West Germany 6.1 8.0 7.0 8.7 9.8 8.0 8.4
Italy 11.0 12.2 18.0 13.5 20.0 11.6 15.0
United Kingdom 8.0 12.0 11.0 11.6 14.0 11.0 9.0
Current Account Balance (Billion US 5)
Canada -0.3
Japan -0.1
France .0.2
West Germany 3.5
Italy -2.8
United Kingdom -3.6
-0.5
-7.5
-6.0
5.0
-7.5
-10.0
-1.2
-7.9
-4.3
2.5
-5.5
-9f)
-0.5
-5.9
-2.0
1.5
-4.5
-5.0
Real GNP in the United Kingdom and possibly Japan is declining in the first
half but is increasing moderately in Canada, France, West Germany, and Italy.
Inflation rates generally exceed 10%, and, except for West Germany and Canada,
the current accounts are in substantial deficit.
The OECD and CIA forecasts, as well as most other forecasts, point to a
second half recovery. The forecasts assume that restrictive economic policies will
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be relaxed or stimulative policies introduced in a number of countries, and
investment will be encouraged by shortages of capacity and the introduction of
energy-conserving processes.
For the year as a whole, real GNP growth in the developed countries will
probably fall to half the rate of 1973. Japanese growth will be negligible in the
first half; we do not, however, expect GNP to decline as predicted by the OECD.
Increased investment spending and business pressure for relief from restrictive
policies should increase real growth to nearly 6% in the second half. British GNP
will probably plummet by 8% in the first half because of the coal strike, weak
consumer demand, and deflationary budget and credit policies. The resumption
of a normal work week and renewed consumer confidence should result in a spurt
of 8%9% in the second half.
With the threat of recession diminishing, however, many governments are
hesitant to stimulate demand for fear of worsening inflation.
? Tokyo is expected to maintain its restrictive monetary and fiscal
policies at least until July; if a recovery is then evident, policies
could remain tight until the fall.
o In the United Kingdom the prospects of a second half recovery have
allowed the Wilson government to tighten fiscal policy; the new
budget increases taxes $1.6 billion.
e Paris has strengthened price controls, speeded up tax collections,
and kept credit tight.
Thus, better than expected performance in the first half could, paradoxically, have
the effect of moderating the projected second half recovery.
Disagreements within the informal government coalition on measures to deal
with Canada's accelerating inflation resulted in last week's budget defeat and th
fall of the Trudeau government. The inflation issue is expected to dominate the
campaign leading up to the 8 July election.
The rate of inflation, after slowing at the end of 1973, accelerated to 12%
in the first quarter of 1974. This is still below the rate in most other industrialized
countries. Nevertheless, as a result of the sharp inflationary trend, the opposition
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Progressive Conservative Party proposed sweeping price and wage controls. In tuns,
the New Democratic Party - the Liberal Party's coalition partner - became
concerned about sharing the blame for the inflation and demanded an excess profits
iax and other controversial measures as the price for continued support of the
government.
Trudeau argued that the price rises stemmed primarily from external causes,
such as the worldwide jump in the prices of oil, food, and other materials. He
has continued to emphasize growth in output and employment, --sisting
Conservative and New Democratic calls for restrictive policies. Thus his proposed
budget for fiscal year 1975 lacked both the strong anti-inflationary elements that
would have mollified the Conservatives and the reformist elements that the New
Democrats sought.
The election will test voter sentiment on the dominant issue of inflation. If
Canadians are determined to see stronger government action against inflation, they
probably will shift to the Conservatives - who had only three fewer seats than
the Liberals in the dissolved Parliament. Recent polls show that the Liberals still
have a narrow lead, although probably not enough to gain a Parliamentary majority.
The outcome of the election and the future course of Canadian economic policy
thus r,=nain uncertain.
Notes
Argentina Increases Economic Relations with the USSR
An Argentine delegation on. a trade promotion tour of Communist countries
already has negotiated sales to the USSR of more than $200 million in meat,
rice, and fruit. This is more than seven times the level of Argentina's 1972 exports
to the USSR. Recent press reports of $600 million of new Soviet aid for power
projects in Argentina seem to be exaggerated. Although preliminary aid discussions
for major projects are under way, the only new Soviet commitment is a $75 million
contract for power generating equipment at the $600 million Salto Grande project.
The Argentine delegation is scheduled to sign several other agreements on its tour
of Prague, Budapest, and Warsaw, including one for $100 million to $150 million
in credits from Poland_
Rail Strike Adds to India's Economic Woes
India, harried by a host of major economic problems; hopes to bring its
potentially disastrous rail strike to a quick end. Mrs. Ghandhi is using the military
and "loyal" railroad workers in a determined effort to break the strike. In the
meantime, business and commercial activity in the major cities has fallen off sharply.
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Although food is still available, prices in some cities have risen 50% since the strike
started. Coal (essential for industrial production), kerosene, and cooking oil are
especially scarce.
UK-USSR Ten-Year Cooperation Agreement
Great Britain and the USSR last week concluded a 10-year scientific, technical,
and industrial cooperation agreement following two years of negotiation. The
agreement resembles those the USSR has signed with a number of West European
countries and hopes to conclude with the United States this year. UK interest
in the agreement was probably spurred by the record 1973 deficit of more than
$500 million in trade with the USSR. British firms have recently fared badly in
the competition for major Soviet contracts, which will determine the pattern of
Soviet trade over the next few years.
Algeria Awards Refinery Contract to Italian Firm
Algeria's state oil enterprise, Sonatrach, has awarded Snam Progetti of Italy
a contract to build Africa's largest petroleum refinery at Skikda. The refinery,
with a capacity of 300,000 b/d, is to be completed by 1978 at a cost of $300
million. Oil and gas production currently accounts for 18% of Algeria's GNP and
three-fourths of its exports. Sonatrach has been negotiating with US and other
petrochemical firms for additional plants to be built at Skikda, to produce ethylene,
polyethylene, and polyvinyl chloride.
The dollar continued to decline sharply on most European exchanges last week.
The mark and other joint float currencies gained from 1%-2% on the dollar. The
Swiss franc appreciated by more than 4%. The pound declined slightly. Extremely
high Eurodollar deposit rates have apparently had little effect in stemming the
dollar's decline. Speculation continues over a mark revaluation. $200 million in
intervention has been required so far this month to keep the mark from rising
above the narrow 2.25% joint float band. The Italians are continuing their support
of the lira despite the imposition of import curbs.
Eastern Europe: Rain Brings Partial Relief
Early May rains have removed crops from the critical list in Hungary and
Czechoslovakia but have brought only slight relief to other East European countries.
Precipitation in the first week of May ranged from approximately 1.6 inches in
Hungary to about 0.8 inch in Bulgaria and East Germany. Hungarirn officials said
that a grain harvest "disaster" was only a few days away when rain finally fell.
The rainfa!l in Eastern Europe undoubtedly spurred the development of
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spring-planted crops - particularly root crops and sunflowers - and insured the
germination of corn. Nonetheless, subsoil moisture remains below average, and more
rain must come this month if above-normal grain imports are to be avoided.
Jordan: Economic Prospects
(CIA ER IM 74-4, May 1974,
The outlook for Jordan's economy is favorable, barring a renewal of major
fighting. The balance of payments, which was $20 million in the black last year,
probably will show a surplus of at least $70 million in 1974. Export earnings,
foreign aid payments, and capital inflows for development all are slated to increase.
Growth in imports provably will be held to 25% because of the reduced need
to import grain and the continued receipt of low-priced petroleum from Saudi
Arabia.
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INTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
GNP'
A
A
WHOLESALE PRICES
verage
nnual
Constant Markel Prices
Growth Rate Since
Average Annual
Industrial
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Lat331 from Previous 1 Year Previous
Quarter Ouarter 1970 Earlier Quarter
Percent Change
Latest from Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Eadie~ Earlier
United States
74 1
-1.4
4.0
0.4
-5.6
United States
Apr 74
2
4
8
6
20
8
30
2
Japan
73 IV
1.4
8.3
7..0
5.8
Japan
Apr 74
.
0.7
.
1.2
.
35.0
.
22.9
West Germany
73 IV
-0,1
3.1
3.4
- 0.3
West Germany
Feb 74
2.3
6.5
11.9
20.5
France
73 III
0.9
5.0
0.1
3.8
Franco
Mar 74
4.9
12.8
33$
72.7
United Kingdom
73 IV
-0.4
3.1
3.9
-1.4
United Kingdom
Mar 74
3.1
10.0
18.7
41.3
Italy
73 I
0,8
3.1
5.2
3.4
Italy
Nov 73
1.3
8.0
21.2
17.8
Canada
73 IV
2.8
6.1
7.2
11.0
Canadc
Feb 74
1.5
9.7
19.8
27.8
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
CONSUMER PRICES
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Lotest from Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier ??
P
latest f
M
th
erce
rom
M
nt Change
Previous I Year 3 Months
h
United States
Mar 74
-0.4
4.4
0
-7.9
United States
on
Mar 74
1
ont
1.1
1970
I 5.A
Earlier
10
3
Earlier
14
0
Japan
Mar.74
-0.7
7.8
5.7
-0.5
Japan
Mar 74
C.7
10.5
.
24.0
.
39.4
West Germany
Jan 74
-0,8
3.2
0.6
-4.3
West Germany
Mar74
0.3
6.2
7.2
7,7
France
Feb 74
-0.8
6.8
5.0
1.1
France
Mar 74
1.2
7.5
12.2
18.0
United Kingdom
Feb 74
4.6
1.3
-5.4
-24.3
United Kingdom
Mar 74
0.9
9
6
13
8
19.8
Italy
Mar 74
-2.1
3.9
13.3
-2.8
Italy
Mar 74
2.6
.
9.0
,
16.0
28.6
Canada
Feb 74
1.2 -
8.7
4.5
8.7
Canada
Mar 74
1.0
8.0
10.4
11.7
RETAIL SALES*
Current Prices Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
latest from Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier''
i
U
Percent Changri
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
n
ted States
Apr 74
1.4
10.6
8.3
10.8
United States
Mat 74 1
0
8
8
I 6
6
5
5
7
Japan
Nov 73
3.4
14.0
27.4
32.0
Japan
Dec 73
.
0
.
17.5
.
18.7
.
14.7
West Germany
Dec 73
0.5
7.8
5.8
7.6
West Germany
Jan 74
0.1
8.9
0.8
9.8
France
Jan 74
-2.7
7.0
18.3
29.2
France
Jan 74
1.1
13.2
12.3
18.7
United Kingdom
Jan 74
-1.3
11.5
13.1
16.9
United Kingdom
Mar 74
-0.2
8.8
2.7
0.5
Italy
Oct 73
0.8
16.2
29.1
56.7
Italy
Oct 73
1.6
20.7
23.0
21.4
Canada Feb 74
3.4
12.0
14.0
18.8
Canada
Mar 74
0.7
12.9
11.8
15.4
Lnited States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Canada
Euro-Dollars
Representative notes
Prime fina;,ae paper
Call money
Interbank loans(Worths)
Call money
Local authority deposits
Finance paper
Three-month deposits
Office of Economic Research/CIA
8.50
12.50
11.38
11.75
13.83
10.00
10.00
IYvar
Earlier
6.75
3 Months
Earlier
7.88
1 Month
Earlier
8.50
5.50
12.00
12.00
N.A.
13.00
10.38
7.62
15.00
11.88
Baaaondly adjusted
7.28
15.81
16.00
.
."Av.-rap for latest 3 month, compared
5.75
8.88
8.38
rdth average for previous 3 months
8.63
10.13
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EXPORTS"
f.o.b.
Italy
IMPORTS"
f.o.b.
Italy
TRADE BALANCE"
f.o.b./f.o.b.
United States
Japan
West Germany
rrarce
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Million US $
Million US $ 1974 1073
Mar 74 7,074 22,394 15,421
Mar 74 3,742 11,020 5,082
Mar 74 0,801 20,342 14,022
Mar74 3,864 10,541 7,891
Mar 74 2,8'.8 7,702 0,434
Feb 74 2,095 4,001 3,003
Feb 74 2,458 4,902 3,941
Latest Month
Million US $
Million US S 1974 1973
Mar74 7,845 21,705 19,254
Mar 74 4,390 11,958 6,356
Mar 74 4,934 14,297 11,197
Mar74 3,945 11,221 7,613
Mar 74 3,888 10,589 7,313
Feb 74 2,847 5,017 3,298
Feb 74 2,507 4,730 3,837
Percent
Change
45.2
30.4
45.1
33.0
19.7
32.6
24.4
Percent
Change
33.5
88.1
27.7
47.4
44.8
52.1
30.1
Million IIS $
Mar74 1 -171
Mar 74
Mar 74
Mar74
Mar 74
Feb 74
Feb 74
-657
1,867
-282
-1,030
-752
-49
1974
68fi
-932
P,?045
-680
-2,887
-957
169
Change
1,522
-2,657
3,220
-958
-2,009
-722
-135
United States'
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Latest Period Cumulative (Million US $)
Million US $ 1973 1972 Change
73 IV 200 1,186 -9,838 11,024
Mar 74 -1,168 -9,702 2,137 -1 x,839
Mar 74 1,176 3,950 4.588 -916
73 IV -352 -2,391 -369 -2,022
73 IV -1,394 -3,164 -1,889 -1.175
72 IV 800 NA. 2,083 NA.
731V 27 376 1,156 -779
Japan
1973
-833
1,725
2,825
27d
-.878
-235
304
Billio t US S
1 *,,et 3 Months
End of Billion US S Jun 1970 Earlier Earlier
Mar74 14.6 16.3 14.0 14.4
Apr 74 12.7 4.1 16.8 11.6
Mar74 32.9 0.8 112.3 33.1 .
Mar 74 8.1 4.4 11.2 8.5
Apr 74 7.0 2.8 8.1 6.2
Mar74 6.7 4.7 0.3 0.4
EXPORT PRICES
US$ Average Annual
Growth Rule Since
Percent Changi
Latest train Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Month 1910 Earlier Earlier
United States
Feb 74
3.5
11.0
27,0
38.3
Japan
Nov 73
-0.8
13.2
27.4
11.8
West Germany
Feb 74
7.1
12.5
23.9
5,8
France
Doc 73
-1.7
13.4
27,4
-9.1
United Kingdom
Doc 73
0.1
8.7
17.4
12.0
Italy
Oct 73
2.1
11.8
23.7
29.1
Canada
Jan 74
4.8
11.3
31.5
03.2
EXPORT PRICES
National Currency Average Annual
Growth Role Since
Percent Change
Latest from Previous 1
3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
United Status
Feb 74
3.5
11.0
27.6
38.3
Japan
Nov 73
3.6
4.8
14.9
34.1
West Germany
Fab 74
3.4
3.6
11.7
29.5
France
Dec 73
2.1
7.3
15.0
22.3
United Kingdom
Dec 73
3.1
9.8
18.8
33.0
Italy
Oct 73
2.4
8.3
20.4
17.0
Canada
Jan 74
3.7
9.6
30.5
56.7
IMPORT PRICES
Average Annual
National Currency
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
United States
Feb 74
5.4
15.6
40.6
71.4
Japan
Nov 73
3.7
4.8
19.8
31.0
West Germany
Feb 74
3.5
5.9
22.7
75.7
France
Dec 73
9.0
8.0
18.4
37.3
United Kingdom
Dec 73
4.5
16.3
42.6
50.6
Italy
Oct 73
3.4
14.0
38.7
30.8
Canada
Jan 74
2.3
8.8
17.3
25.7
EXCHANGE RATES Spot Rate
As of 10 May 74 Percent Change from
Us $ 18 Dec 19 Mar 3 Mev
Per Unit Dec 66 1971 1973 1974
~0pEtnlYen)
Wast German (che
y Markerk)
0.0036
0.4131
30.55
64.32
10.93
33.13
-5.291
16.861
0.76
1.77
FrancelFrancl (Pound
0.2067
2.38
4.98
-6.22
2.17
United Kingdom Sterling)
2.4305
-12.90
-6.72
-1.24
0.52
Italy (Lira)
0.0016
0.12
-8.80
-9.44
1.14
Canada (Doper)
'..0398
12.71
4.19
4.20
0.04
TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATES"""
As of 10 May 74 Percent Change from
19 Dec 19 Mar 3 May
Dec 66 1971 1973 1974
United States I
-18.78
-9.31
-2.84
-0.73
?span
18.10
4.29
-7.88
0.41
West Germany
35.63
18.35
13.27
0.40
France
-23.78
-10.15
-12.58
0.85
United Kingdom
-34.32
-20.05
-5.64
-0.52
Italy
-24.13
-22.75
-15.83
-0.32
2.23
3.87
-0.20
-Converted into US dollon'at current mattkot r.t. of exchange. countri . to reflect the competitive impact of exchange-rate variations