ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150022-2
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
13
Document Creation Date: 
December 22, 2016
Document Release Date: 
September 28, 2009
Sequence Number: 
22
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
May 15, 1974
Content Type: 
REPORT
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PDF icon CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150022-2.pdf572.12 KB
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Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150022-2 Secret Economic Intelligence meekly Secret CIA No. 8034/74 15 May 1974 Copy N2 159 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150022-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150022-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150022-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150022-2 Page Rome Further Tightens Import Restrictions Government limits credit expansion in attempt to cut trade deficit. Japan: Flagging Demand for Imported Raw Materials Economic slowdown eases pressure on world commodity markets. Developed Countries: Prospects for 1974 Outlook for year still glum despite upward revision of first-half forecasts. 2 Canada: Inflation Issue Heats Lip Accelerating prices helped topple Trudeau government. 4 Argentina Increases Economic Relations with the USSR Rail Strike .Adds to India's Economic Woes UK-USSR Ten-Year Cooperation Agreement Algeria Awards Refinery Contract to Italian Firm Dollar Decline Continues Eastern Europe: Rain Brings Partial Relief Summary of a Recent Publication Comparative Indicators Recent Data Concerning Internal and External Economic Activities The oil situation is now being covered mainly in International Oil Developments, published each Thursday morning. Note: Comments and queries regarding this publication are welcomed. i Secret Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150022-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150022-2 Secret ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY Articles ROME FURTHER TIGHTENS IMPORT RESTRICTIONS Rome has chosen to attack its payments problem by reducing its trade deficit rather than by inducing short-term capital inflows. Last week the government required importers to deposit 50% of the value of their foreign purchases in a non-interest bearing account for six months. The Bank of Italy now has revoked the authority of domestic banks to guarantee foreign loans to Italian importers. Since many foreign banks will be reluctant to extend unguaranteed loans, Italian importers will be forced to turn to an already tight domestic market for financing. This followup measure thus improves chances of effecting the 8% cutback in imports Rome is hoping for. The Bank of Italy has limited overall credit expansion to 15% from March 1974 to March 1975. Because most banks already have reached their limit, additional funds will have to come mainly from loan repayments. Small importers will be hit hardest because they are unable to obtain credit locally or to attract unguaranteed loans from abroad. The Italian restrictions have not yet led to any countermeasures by most of italy's major trading partners. But France - concerned about its second largest market - has set up a special body to examine the consequences of Italian restrictions -,nd to consider remedial measures. In addition, a number of French banks and farm organizations have agreed to help cattle breeders and dairy producers finance their Italian sales. About 80% of French live cattle exports went to Italy last year. JAPAN: FLAGGING DEMAND FOR IMPORTED RAW MATERIALS A marked slowdown in the growth of Japan's purchases of raw materials should ease pressure on international commodity markets during the next several months. The volume of Japan's raw material imports in January and February was up only 1%, compared with the same period in 1973; demand will remain sluggish for at least the next several months. Such imports swelled by 20% last year, a Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150022-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150022-2 major factor in the upward pressure on world commodity prices. Japan accounted for roughly one-half of the increase in world copper consumption and a substantial part of the rise in demand for steel scrap, bauxite, rubber, and other industrial materials. Underlying this demand was the near record 17% increase in industrial production. Japan: Trend,. import Volame 1973 Jan-Feb 1974 1973 Percent Change Jan-Feb 1974 over over over over 1972 Jan-Feb 1973 1972 Jan-Feb 1973 Iron and steel scrap 116 -57 Bauxite 12 2 Hides and skins 11 -34 Non-cereal feeds 40 4 Wool .6 -26 Natural rubber 24 5 Copper 34 -20 Soybeans 7 6 Cotton 9 -11 Iron ore 21 17 Logs and lumber 17 -8 Coal and coke 15 19 Wheat 5 -3 Corn 28 21 Crude oil 16 Sorghum 30 Copper ore 37 2 With industrial output falling in recent months, demand for certain US exports - steel scrap, wood products, hides, and skins - has fallen sharply. Nonetheless, Japan's overall purchases of US materials in January - February 1974 were 10% above the same period in 1973 because of strong demanG for US coal and farm products. Imports of US coal and corn were up 67% and 30%, respectively. Higher prices have raised Japan's raw material import bill markedly even though volume has increased little. Oil imports are running at about the early 1973 level of 5.3 million b/d, while prices have quadrupled. The prices of conner, rubber, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: PROSPECTS FOR 1974 .evised OECD forecasts and recent CIA estimates indicate that the economic situation of the developed countries in the first half of 1974 will turn out somewhat better than anticipated in January. Even so, depressed real growth, soaring inflation, and mounting current account deficits will dominate the economic outlook for Canada, :Japan, and Western Europe. 2 Secret Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150022-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150022-2 Developed Countries: Economic Projections Total 1974 1st Half 1974 2d Half 1974 1973 Estimated Estimated Estia-Wted OECD] CIA OECD 1 CIA OECD 1 CIA Real GNP Growth (Percent change from previous period) Canada 7.1 4.7 4.5 4.8 5.0 4.3 4.0 Japan 11.0 1.1 4.0 -2.3 1.0 5.5 6.0 France 6.1 4.5 3.8 4.4 3.8 3.8 4.6 West Germany 5.3 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.6 3.1 4.6 Italy 5.9 4.8 3.5 3.6 2.0 2.6 1.0 United Kingdom 5.9 -2.5 -2.0 -8.7 -8.0 8.3 9.0 GNP Deflator (Percent change from precious period) Canada 7.1 9.1 8.2 9.7 8.5 8.0 7.8 Japan 12.2 22.7 25.0 25.5 32.0 19.6 10.0 France 6.9 10.0 10.0 11.9 11.0 7.8 9.0 West Germany 6.1 8.0 7.0 8.7 9.8 8.0 8.4 Italy 11.0 12.2 18.0 13.5 20.0 11.6 15.0 United Kingdom 8.0 12.0 11.0 11.6 14.0 11.0 9.0 Current Account Balance (Billion US 5) Canada -0.3 Japan -0.1 France .0.2 West Germany 3.5 Italy -2.8 United Kingdom -3.6 -0.5 -7.5 -6.0 5.0 -7.5 -10.0 -1.2 -7.9 -4.3 2.5 -5.5 -9f) -0.5 -5.9 -2.0 1.5 -4.5 -5.0 Real GNP in the United Kingdom and possibly Japan is declining in the first half but is increasing moderately in Canada, France, West Germany, and Italy. Inflation rates generally exceed 10%, and, except for West Germany and Canada, the current accounts are in substantial deficit. The OECD and CIA forecasts, as well as most other forecasts, point to a second half recovery. The forecasts assume that restrictive economic policies will 3 Secret Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150022-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150022-2 be relaxed or stimulative policies introduced in a number of countries, and investment will be encouraged by shortages of capacity and the introduction of energy-conserving processes. For the year as a whole, real GNP growth in the developed countries will probably fall to half the rate of 1973. Japanese growth will be negligible in the first half; we do not, however, expect GNP to decline as predicted by the OECD. Increased investment spending and business pressure for relief from restrictive policies should increase real growth to nearly 6% in the second half. British GNP will probably plummet by 8% in the first half because of the coal strike, weak consumer demand, and deflationary budget and credit policies. The resumption of a normal work week and renewed consumer confidence should result in a spurt of 8%9% in the second half. With the threat of recession diminishing, however, many governments are hesitant to stimulate demand for fear of worsening inflation. ? Tokyo is expected to maintain its restrictive monetary and fiscal policies at least until July; if a recovery is then evident, policies could remain tight until the fall. o In the United Kingdom the prospects of a second half recovery have allowed the Wilson government to tighten fiscal policy; the new budget increases taxes $1.6 billion. e Paris has strengthened price controls, speeded up tax collections, and kept credit tight. Thus, better than expected performance in the first half could, paradoxically, have the effect of moderating the projected second half recovery. Disagreements within the informal government coalition on measures to deal with Canada's accelerating inflation resulted in last week's budget defeat and th fall of the Trudeau government. The inflation issue is expected to dominate the campaign leading up to the 8 July election. The rate of inflation, after slowing at the end of 1973, accelerated to 12% in the first quarter of 1974. This is still below the rate in most other industrialized countries. Nevertheless, as a result of the sharp inflationary trend, the opposition 4 Secret Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150022-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150022-2 Progressive Conservative Party proposed sweeping price and wage controls. In tuns, the New Democratic Party - the Liberal Party's coalition partner - became concerned about sharing the blame for the inflation and demanded an excess profits iax and other controversial measures as the price for continued support of the government. Trudeau argued that the price rises stemmed primarily from external causes, such as the worldwide jump in the prices of oil, food, and other materials. He has continued to emphasize growth in output and employment, --sisting Conservative and New Democratic calls for restrictive policies. Thus his proposed budget for fiscal year 1975 lacked both the strong anti-inflationary elements that would have mollified the Conservatives and the reformist elements that the New Democrats sought. The election will test voter sentiment on the dominant issue of inflation. If Canadians are determined to see stronger government action against inflation, they probably will shift to the Conservatives - who had only three fewer seats than the Liberals in the dissolved Parliament. Recent polls show that the Liberals still have a narrow lead, although probably not enough to gain a Parliamentary majority. The outcome of the election and the future course of Canadian economic policy thus r,=nain uncertain. Notes Argentina Increases Economic Relations with the USSR An Argentine delegation on. a trade promotion tour of Communist countries already has negotiated sales to the USSR of more than $200 million in meat, rice, and fruit. This is more than seven times the level of Argentina's 1972 exports to the USSR. Recent press reports of $600 million of new Soviet aid for power projects in Argentina seem to be exaggerated. Although preliminary aid discussions for major projects are under way, the only new Soviet commitment is a $75 million contract for power generating equipment at the $600 million Salto Grande project. The Argentine delegation is scheduled to sign several other agreements on its tour of Prague, Budapest, and Warsaw, including one for $100 million to $150 million in credits from Poland_ Rail Strike Adds to India's Economic Woes India, harried by a host of major economic problems; hopes to bring its potentially disastrous rail strike to a quick end. Mrs. Ghandhi is using the military and "loyal" railroad workers in a determined effort to break the strike. In the meantime, business and commercial activity in the major cities has fallen off sharply. 6 Secret Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150022-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150022-2 Although food is still available, prices in some cities have risen 50% since the strike started. Coal (essential for industrial production), kerosene, and cooking oil are especially scarce. UK-USSR Ten-Year Cooperation Agreement Great Britain and the USSR last week concluded a 10-year scientific, technical, and industrial cooperation agreement following two years of negotiation. The agreement resembles those the USSR has signed with a number of West European countries and hopes to conclude with the United States this year. UK interest in the agreement was probably spurred by the record 1973 deficit of more than $500 million in trade with the USSR. British firms have recently fared badly in the competition for major Soviet contracts, which will determine the pattern of Soviet trade over the next few years. Algeria Awards Refinery Contract to Italian Firm Algeria's state oil enterprise, Sonatrach, has awarded Snam Progetti of Italy a contract to build Africa's largest petroleum refinery at Skikda. The refinery, with a capacity of 300,000 b/d, is to be completed by 1978 at a cost of $300 million. Oil and gas production currently accounts for 18% of Algeria's GNP and three-fourths of its exports. Sonatrach has been negotiating with US and other petrochemical firms for additional plants to be built at Skikda, to produce ethylene, polyethylene, and polyvinyl chloride. The dollar continued to decline sharply on most European exchanges last week. The mark and other joint float currencies gained from 1%-2% on the dollar. The Swiss franc appreciated by more than 4%. The pound declined slightly. Extremely high Eurodollar deposit rates have apparently had little effect in stemming the dollar's decline. Speculation continues over a mark revaluation. $200 million in intervention has been required so far this month to keep the mark from rising above the narrow 2.25% joint float band. The Italians are continuing their support of the lira despite the imposition of import curbs. Eastern Europe: Rain Brings Partial Relief Early May rains have removed crops from the critical list in Hungary and Czechoslovakia but have brought only slight relief to other East European countries. Precipitation in the first week of May ranged from approximately 1.6 inches in Hungary to about 0.8 inch in Bulgaria and East Germany. Hungarirn officials said that a grain harvest "disaster" was only a few days away when rain finally fell. The rainfa!l in Eastern Europe undoubtedly spurred the development of 25X1 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150022-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150022-2 spring-planted crops - particularly root crops and sunflowers - and insured the germination of corn. Nonetheless, subsoil moisture remains below average, and more rain must come this month if above-normal grain imports are to be avoided. Jordan: Economic Prospects (CIA ER IM 74-4, May 1974, The outlook for Jordan's economy is favorable, barring a renewal of major fighting. The balance of payments, which was $20 million in the black last year, probably will show a surplus of at least $70 million in 1974. Export earnings, foreign aid payments, and capital inflows for development all are slated to increase. Growth in imports provably will be held to 25% because of the reduced need to import grain and the continued receipt of low-priced petroleum from Saudi Arabia. 7 Secret Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150022-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150022-2 INTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS GNP' A A WHOLESALE PRICES verage nnual Constant Markel Prices Growth Rate Since Average Annual Industrial Growth Rate Since Percent Change Lat331 from Previous 1 Year Previous Quarter Ouarter 1970 Earlier Quarter Percent Change Latest from Previous I Year 3 Months Month Month 1970 Eadie~ Earlier United States 74 1 -1.4 4.0 0.4 -5.6 United States Apr 74 2 4 8 6 20 8 30 2 Japan 73 IV 1.4 8.3 7..0 5.8 Japan Apr 74 . 0.7 . 1.2 . 35.0 . 22.9 West Germany 73 IV -0,1 3.1 3.4 - 0.3 West Germany Feb 74 2.3 6.5 11.9 20.5 France 73 III 0.9 5.0 0.1 3.8 Franco Mar 74 4.9 12.8 33$ 72.7 United Kingdom 73 IV -0.4 3.1 3.9 -1.4 United Kingdom Mar 74 3.1 10.0 18.7 41.3 Italy 73 I 0,8 3.1 5.2 3.4 Italy Nov 73 1.3 8.0 21.2 17.8 Canada 73 IV 2.8 6.1 7.2 11.0 Canadc Feb 74 1.5 9.7 19.8 27.8 Average Annual Growth Rate Since CONSUMER PRICES Average Annual Growth Rate Since Percent Change Lotest from Previous I Year 3 Months Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier ?? P latest f M th erce rom M nt Change Previous I Year 3 Months h United States Mar 74 -0.4 4.4 0 -7.9 United States on Mar 74 1 ont 1.1 1970 I 5.A Earlier 10 3 Earlier 14 0 Japan Mar.74 -0.7 7.8 5.7 -0.5 Japan Mar 74 C.7 10.5 . 24.0 . 39.4 West Germany Jan 74 -0,8 3.2 0.6 -4.3 West Germany Mar74 0.3 6.2 7.2 7,7 France Feb 74 -0.8 6.8 5.0 1.1 France Mar 74 1.2 7.5 12.2 18.0 United Kingdom Feb 74 4.6 1.3 -5.4 -24.3 United Kingdom Mar 74 0.9 9 6 13 8 19.8 Italy Mar 74 -2.1 3.9 13.3 -2.8 Italy Mar 74 2.6 . 9.0 , 16.0 28.6 Canada Feb 74 1.2 - 8.7 4.5 8.7 Canada Mar 74 1.0 8.0 10.4 11.7 RETAIL SALES* Current Prices Average Annual Growth Rate Since Average Annual Growth Rate Since Percent Change latest from Previous I Year 3 Months Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier'' i U Percent Changri Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier n ted States Apr 74 1.4 10.6 8.3 10.8 United States Mat 74 1 0 8 8 I 6 6 5 5 7 Japan Nov 73 3.4 14.0 27.4 32.0 Japan Dec 73 . 0 . 17.5 . 18.7 . 14.7 West Germany Dec 73 0.5 7.8 5.8 7.6 West Germany Jan 74 0.1 8.9 0.8 9.8 France Jan 74 -2.7 7.0 18.3 29.2 France Jan 74 1.1 13.2 12.3 18.7 United Kingdom Jan 74 -1.3 11.5 13.1 16.9 United Kingdom Mar 74 -0.2 8.8 2.7 0.5 Italy Oct 73 0.8 16.2 29.1 56.7 Italy Oct 73 1.6 20.7 23.0 21.4 Canada Feb 74 3.4 12.0 14.0 18.8 Canada Mar 74 0.7 12.9 11.8 15.4 Lnited States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Canada Euro-Dollars Representative notes Prime fina;,ae paper Call money Interbank loans(Worths) Call money Local authority deposits Finance paper Three-month deposits Office of Economic Research/CIA 8.50 12.50 11.38 11.75 13.83 10.00 10.00 IYvar Earlier 6.75 3 Months Earlier 7.88 1 Month Earlier 8.50 5.50 12.00 12.00 N.A. 13.00 10.38 7.62 15.00 11.88 Baaaondly adjusted 7.28 15.81 16.00 . ."Av.-rap for latest 3 month, compared 5.75 8.88 8.38 rdth average for previous 3 months 8.63 10.13 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150022-2 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150022-2 EXPORTS" f.o.b. Italy IMPORTS" f.o.b. Italy TRADE BALANCE" f.o.b./f.o.b. United States Japan West Germany rrarce United Kingdom Italy Canada EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS Million US $ Million US $ 1974 1073 Mar 74 7,074 22,394 15,421 Mar 74 3,742 11,020 5,082 Mar 74 0,801 20,342 14,022 Mar74 3,864 10,541 7,891 Mar 74 2,8'.8 7,702 0,434 Feb 74 2,095 4,001 3,003 Feb 74 2,458 4,902 3,941 Latest Month Million US $ Million US S 1974 1973 Mar74 7,845 21,705 19,254 Mar 74 4,390 11,958 6,356 Mar 74 4,934 14,297 11,197 Mar74 3,945 11,221 7,613 Mar 74 3,888 10,589 7,313 Feb 74 2,847 5,017 3,298 Feb 74 2,507 4,730 3,837 Percent Change 45.2 30.4 45.1 33.0 19.7 32.6 24.4 Percent Change 33.5 88.1 27.7 47.4 44.8 52.1 30.1 Million IIS $ Mar74 1 -171 Mar 74 Mar 74 Mar74 Mar 74 Feb 74 Feb 74 -657 1,867 -282 -1,030 -752 -49 1974 68fi -932 P,?045 -680 -2,887 -957 169 Change 1,522 -2,657 3,220 -958 -2,009 -722 -135 United States' Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada Latest Period Cumulative (Million US $) Million US $ 1973 1972 Change 73 IV 200 1,186 -9,838 11,024 Mar 74 -1,168 -9,702 2,137 -1 x,839 Mar 74 1,176 3,950 4.588 -916 73 IV -352 -2,391 -369 -2,022 73 IV -1,394 -3,164 -1,889 -1.175 72 IV 800 NA. 2,083 NA. 731V 27 376 1,156 -779 Japan 1973 -833 1,725 2,825 27d -.878 -235 304 Billio t US S 1 *,,et 3 Months End of Billion US S Jun 1970 Earlier Earlier Mar74 14.6 16.3 14.0 14.4 Apr 74 12.7 4.1 16.8 11.6 Mar74 32.9 0.8 112.3 33.1 . Mar 74 8.1 4.4 11.2 8.5 Apr 74 7.0 2.8 8.1 6.2 Mar74 6.7 4.7 0.3 0.4 EXPORT PRICES US$ Average Annual Growth Rule Since Percent Changi Latest train Previous I Year 3 Months Month Month 1910 Earlier Earlier United States Feb 74 3.5 11.0 27,0 38.3 Japan Nov 73 -0.8 13.2 27.4 11.8 West Germany Feb 74 7.1 12.5 23.9 5,8 France Doc 73 -1.7 13.4 27,4 -9.1 United Kingdom Doc 73 0.1 8.7 17.4 12.0 Italy Oct 73 2.1 11.8 23.7 29.1 Canada Jan 74 4.8 11.3 31.5 03.2 EXPORT PRICES National Currency Average Annual Growth Role Since Percent Change Latest from Previous 1 3 Months Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier United Status Feb 74 3.5 11.0 27.6 38.3 Japan Nov 73 3.6 4.8 14.9 34.1 West Germany Fab 74 3.4 3.6 11.7 29.5 France Dec 73 2.1 7.3 15.0 22.3 United Kingdom Dec 73 3.1 9.8 18.8 33.0 Italy Oct 73 2.4 8.3 20.4 17.0 Canada Jan 74 3.7 9.6 30.5 56.7 IMPORT PRICES Average Annual National Currency Growth Rate Since Percent Change Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier United States Feb 74 5.4 15.6 40.6 71.4 Japan Nov 73 3.7 4.8 19.8 31.0 West Germany Feb 74 3.5 5.9 22.7 75.7 France Dec 73 9.0 8.0 18.4 37.3 United Kingdom Dec 73 4.5 16.3 42.6 50.6 Italy Oct 73 3.4 14.0 38.7 30.8 Canada Jan 74 2.3 8.8 17.3 25.7 EXCHANGE RATES Spot Rate As of 10 May 74 Percent Change from Us $ 18 Dec 19 Mar 3 Mev Per Unit Dec 66 1971 1973 1974 ~0pEtnlYen) Wast German (che y Markerk) 0.0036 0.4131 30.55 64.32 10.93 33.13 -5.291 16.861 0.76 1.77 FrancelFrancl (Pound 0.2067 2.38 4.98 -6.22 2.17 United Kingdom Sterling) 2.4305 -12.90 -6.72 -1.24 0.52 Italy (Lira) 0.0016 0.12 -8.80 -9.44 1.14 Canada (Doper) '..0398 12.71 4.19 4.20 0.04 TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATES""" As of 10 May 74 Percent Change from 19 Dec 19 Mar 3 May Dec 66 1971 1973 1974 United States I -18.78 -9.31 -2.84 -0.73 ?span 18.10 4.29 -7.88 0.41 West Germany 35.63 18.35 13.27 0.40 France -23.78 -10.15 -12.58 0.85 United Kingdom -34.32 -20.05 -5.64 -0.52 Italy -24.13 -22.75 -15.83 -0.32 2.23 3.87 -0.20 -Converted into US dollon'at current mattkot r.t. of exchange. countri . to reflect the competitive impact of exchange-rate variations