ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150037-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 29, 2009
• Sequence Number: 37
• Publication Date: September 25, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Secret
Economic Intelligence Weekly
Secret
CIA No. 8221/74
25 September 1974
Copy N2 400
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Secret
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
25 September 1974
25X1 Developed Countries: Short-Term Economic Prospects;
OECD nations face retarded growth and persistent infla-
tion. (See page 1.)
The Compromise on EC Agricultural Policy reached last
week by the farm ministers has not satisfied any member
government. The 5% hike in support prices will probably
not raise farm incomes enough to offset rising production
costs. Devaluation of the special British and Irish exchange
rates for calculating farm prices-by 7.5% and 10%,
respectively-will further erode the uniform application of
common farm policy.
Canada Moves to Reduce Imports of US Coal; Rising US
prices have spurred plans to develop facilities to move
West Canadian coal to Ontario consumers, starting in
1976.F____7 (See page 10.)
tighten depreciation and depletion rules.
(See page 11.)
Australia to Raise Taxes on Mining; New measures will
The Dollar declined slightly against most major foreign
currencies last week. The largest decline-0.6%-was
agair,zt the yen, which has been buoyed by press an-
nouncements of Japanese successes in arranging long-term
financing from oil producing countries. The exchange
markets were not affected by recent warnings of the
possible consequences of high oil prices. Gold was fixed at25X1
$147.50 an ounce in London yesterday afternoon, down
only $0.25 for the week after plummeting $5 last
Tuesday.
Central Bankers Seek Ways to Restore Stability; Both the
United Kingdom and West Germany are taking steps to
assure that the international banking system will not
crumble. F______1(Sue page 3.)
25X1
World Tin Prices Stay Near Record Level; Prices showed
L.,msidorable strength on Monday at $4.18 per pound,
owing to stagnant mine production and continuing strong
demand. See page 4.)
25X1
Copper Prices on the LME edged several cents higher
during the week to reach 64.4 cents a pound on Monday,
2.6 cents higher than the yearly low of a week ago. The
increase occurred in spite of an 8,825-ton addition to LME
stocks, now at 82,000 tons-the highest level since April
25X1
Coffee Producers Try to Boost Prices; They have agreed to
withhold 12 million bags-about 20% of exportable
production-from the world market in the 1974-75 coffee
year. (See page 10.)
Portuguese Africa: Economic Outlook After Independ-
ence; Angola and Mozambique have brighter prospects
than most other sub-Saharan countries, while the situation
in Guinea-Bissau is less promising.
5.)
kSee page
25X1
Peru: Anchovy Fishing to Begin Again; Fishmeal exports
probably will increase 50% over 1973.1 ](See
page 10.)
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Credit Policies for East-West Trade; Western industrialized
countries still cannot harmonize export credit policies in
trade with Communist countries. 0(See page
25X1 11.)
(See page 12.)
People's Republic of China: International Trade Hand-
USSR: Threshing of Grain Picks Up; Improved weather in book (See page 12.)
September has helped the Soviets push the grain threshing
rate above last year's level. (See page 11.)
Fast Germany: US Recognition and Commercial Rela-
tions; Recognition earlier this month will improve the
commercial climate while having little immediate effect Recent Data Concerning Internal Economic Activities
or trade. (See page 2.) (See page A-1.)
US Firm Cancels Plan to Market Soviet Commuter Jet; An Recent Data Concerning External Economic Activities
erosion of the YAK-40's earlier competitive edge has (See page A-2.)
prompted Rockwell International to drop plans to market
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We estimate that the recovery of major foreign developed countries from the
economic slump in the first half of 1974 will be very slow and uncertain. We
project GNP stagnating in 1974 and growing at about a 3% annual rate in the
first half of 1975.
While our estimates for economic growth through mid-1975 are considerably
below those of the OECD Secretariat, they are more likely to prove too high than
too low. Barring a rapid and general reversal of the presently restrictive government
policies, recovery in the first half of 1975 is unlikely to be stronger than we project
but could be substantially weaker.
Inflation will slow, but only moderately. Price increases will be due in part
to tight supplies of feedstuffs and rising oil costs. More important, the momentum
of wage increases is such that rapid inflation will continue in the short run, despite
restrictive government policies.
The trade balances of the OECD countries would improve in the first half
of 1975, assuming constant oil prices. But the recent decision of OPEC countries
to increase crude prices by 5% and their declared intention to adopt some form
of price indexing next January will almost certainly mean a slightly larger deficit.
countries such as Denmark may have problems.
The distribution of the countries' overall trade deficit will continue to be
highly skewed. West Germany will run a large surplus while Britain, Italy, and
many of the smaller countries will have massive deficits. Most countries will be
able to find necessary financing through mid-1975, but Italy and some of the smaller
* This wticle presents the key judgments of ER IR 74-24, Developed Countries: Short-Term Economic
Prospects, September 1974, The main body of the report appears in an annex to
this Economic Intelligence :Meekly.
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EAST GERMANY: US RECOGNITION
AND COMMERCIAL RELATIONS
GDR: FOREIGN TRADE, 1973
MILLION US $
LESS DEVELOPED
COUNTRIES
US recognition of East Ger-
many earlier this month will improve
the commercial climate while having
little immediate effect on trade. The
United States has lagged behind
other Western countries in supplying
East Germany with the industrial
and agricultural products unavail-
able from Communist countries.
Since the mid-1960s, the GDR
COMMUNIST 73
COUNTRIES has turned increasingly to the indus-
trial West for its growing needs for
basic materials (copper, rolled steel,
and synthetic fibers), agricultural
products (grain and oilseed cakes
and meal), and machinery (petro-
chemical and metallurgical equip-
ment). As a result, the industrial
West accounted for 32% of East German imports in 1973, compared with 22"%o in
1965. West Germany supplies about one-third of imports from the West, with the
remainder coming chiefly from the Netherlands, France, the United Kingdom, and
Switzerland. Exports to the West-largely consumer goods and machinery-has
trailed far behind imports. Consequently, the ratio of debt servicing to export
earnings is currently about 25% and is increasing.
The United States accounts for only 5% of East German imports from the
West. Soybean meal, corn, and wheat made up 90% of US saes of $135 million in
1973. American companies have tried to promote sales of nonagricultural products
with little success. No major contracts have been signed in the past several years,
although a potential market exists for US chemical plants and equipment,
agricultural machinery, data processing equipment, and electronic components.
Future growth of US sales hinges on Pankow's securing US financing that is
competitive with West European and Japanese credits. The GDR probably will be
unable to obtain the desired US Exim Bank credits until progress is made on the
question of war claims.
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East German exports to the United States-primarily printing and photographic
equipment-amounted to only $12 million in 1973. Sales to the United States
should increase if the GDR is granted MFN status; most of the potential
exports-such as knitting machines, printing presses, and glassware-are now subject
to a high degree of tariff discrimination. Even with MFN, a sharp increase is unlikely
unless East Germany produces more consumer goods for export and upgrades the
quality of its machinery.
Concern over the stability of the European banking structure dominated
discussions at this month's meeting of central bankers in Basel. Even though the
United Kingdom and West Germany are taking steps to assure that the system
will not crumble, the responsibility for monitoring foreign-owned banking
operations has not been fully resolved.
West German representatives stated that the Bundesbank is prepared to prevent
a wave of new failures by arranging mergers or providing liquidity. Grossly
mismanaged operations would be saved only if mergers could be arranged. Bonn
already has set limits on foreign exchange operations and has formed a consortium
to aid small banks facing acute liquidity shortages. Until now the attitude toward
bank failures has been much more casual in West Germany than in the United
Kingdom and the United States.
The British representatives brought up the difficult question of who is
responsible for foreign subsidiaries and foreign bank consortia doing business in
London. The answer is unclear for these operations, in contrast to the branch
offices of foreign banks, which are the responsibility of the home country. Unable
to get a commitment from other governments, the British indicated that they would
ask the banks in question whether their parents would bail them out if problems
developed. This approach worried the other central bankers, who felt that raising
such questions would feed rumors of new failures and disturb an already delicate
situation.
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London Metal Exchange Tin Prices
460 - Monthly Average Price Sep 4 ?
C Per Pound
Tin prices on the London Metal
Exchange (LME) remained strong at
$4.18 a pound on Monday-150%
more than in late 1972 and still near
the record high of early this month.
No appreciable decline in prices is
expected in the near term because
? mine production is
stagnating;
? demand by industrial
users, dealers, and
speculators has con-
tinued to rise; and
Tin Mine Production and Refined
Consumption by Country, 1973
? the buffer stock of
the International Tin
Council (ITC) has
been largely de-
pleted.
As usual, US market prices have been
closely following the trend of LME
prices.
United Kingdom 9%- 1 I tion of refined tin probably will
Indonesia West Germany 8% again exceed production, perhaps by
1171 Inallana dJ 111W11e dJ LU,VVV LWIJ k I L10). Z AI-
Australia Australia though the United States had re-
stockpiles by early September, sup-
plies remain tight. Only 7,000 tons
remain available for disposal under
the previous Congressional authorization. The buffer stocks of the ITC currently
contain only 142 tons and LME holdings are oily 1,795 tons. Meanwhile, consumers
continue to rebuild depleted inventories and speculators are active, in anticipation of
still higher prices.
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Other I I I leased 23,000 tons from strategic
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Free World Tin Production and Consumption
Thousand Tons Metal Content
Estimated
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
Mine production
179.6
182.4
186.5
196.3
185.3
187
Production of primary tin
179.6
177.4
185.3
1.9.5
185.3
187
Consumption of refined tin
183.3
183.6
183.7
187.6
201.1
210
World mine production of tin has declined since 1972 in most of the major
producing countries. In Malaysia, source of nearly 40% of Free World tin, declining
ore grades and, more recently, the high cost of oil used in dredging operations have
caused marginal producers to close down. At the same time, sharply increased costs
of new dredges have slowed the start of new operations. Production increases
planned in Bolivia and Indonesia this year will do little more than make up for
previous declines.
Demand has remained strong for tin plate, which consumes nearly one-half of
tin output, and for solder in the electronics industry. Various substitutes for tin
plate-including glass, tin-free steel, aluminum, plastics, and paper-also are currently
in short supply, with prices to match.
Without sales front the remaining US stockpile of 205,000 tons, tin prices can
be expected to rise further. If 'Congress approves releases from the 165,000 tons
previously declared surplus, prices probably would not rise much higher and could
drift downward because of slackening industrial demand in developed countries.
PORTUGUESE AFRICA:
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AFTER INDEPENDENCE
Two Portuguese territories - Angola and Mozambique - have brighter
economic prospects than most other sub-Saharan countries. The outlook for the
former territory of Portuguese Guinea (now Guinea-Bissau) is less promising.
Longstanding economic ties insure a continuation of Portuguese influence for
a number of years. Portugal has established a common monetary id payments
system, a well-integrated credit system, a preferential trade market, and a centralized
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development plan throughout the territories. Portuguese companies own most major
manufacturing and transportation facilities and conduct the bulk of external trade
and domestic commerce.
Angola
Rich agricultural and mineral resources have enabled the Angolan economy
to grow at 11% in recent years. Cii production reached 165,000 b/d in 1973,
90% from the exclave of Cabinda. Angola also produces diamonds and iron ore
in substantial quantities and is one of the world's largest coffee producers. The
United States - the largest trading partner after Portugal - is the prince market
for Angolan coffee and an important customer for its oil.
Sporadic outbreaks of civil unrest have had minor economic effects. While
short-term credit is scarce, most retail establishments are functioning normally.
Shortages are due more to hoarding than to prcduction or distribution problems.
Government foreign exchange and banking restrictions and the depressed real
estate market have slowed the emigration of whites, making it impossible for them
to leave with more than a fraction of their holdings. Nonetheless, some loss of
managerial and technical skill is inevitable. Some transitional problems thus are
in store before the rich economic potential of Angola can be realized.
Mozambique
Development in Mozambique will be aided by its varied agricultural resources
and major transport facilities. The economy is now based on commercial agriculture,
mainly c:ishew 'nuts, cotton, and sugar. The diverse, though generally low-grade,
mineral resources remain largely unexploited; long-term world price trends probably;
will work *.!t their favor. Mozambique is heavily dependent on earnings from tourism,
migratory iaUor, and transportation services to South Africa and Rhodesia.
Its railroads and ror:s handle almost all of Rhodesia's and about one-fourth
of South Africa's foreign trade. In 1973, these services plus tourism and the
repatriated wages of 100,000 workers in South African gold mines earned $200
million in foreign exchange. Mozambique also is the beneficiary of investment from
South Africa, primarily for the $500 million Cabora Bassa hydroelectric powerplant.
Black leaders in Mozambique have voiced cautious attitudes toward altering
connections with their white neighbors. Restrictions on South African and
Rhodesian shipping over Mozambique transport routes are unlikely, at least during
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the transitional period while governmental authority in Lourenco Marques is
consolidated. Pretoria and Salisbury have expressed a willingness to cooperate with
an independent black government in Mozambique.
Sharply higher wage demands and emigration of whites have become urgent
problems for the new state. Widespreat strikes have caused production losses and
have delayed loading and unloading at the harbors. Supply shortages among the
black population in Lourenco Marques, caused by rioting earlier in the month,
have necessitated emergency distribution of food. Over the longer run, Mozambique
will find it more difficult than Angola to develop its natural resources and, in
general, to achieve high rates of economic growth.
Guinea-Bissau is the poorest of the territories. Most of its population is engaged
in subsistence agriculture, with rice the main crop. Productior; of cash crops -
notably peanuts - has been disrupted by hostilities. Many expatriate traders have
left, and commerce will face a further setback with the departure of the colonial
army. Bauxite deposits represent the only known mineral wealth.
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Peru: Anchovy Fishing to Begin Again
Peru has announced it is resuming anchovy lisping, suspended since the end
of May. Lima probably will limit the catch for the remainder of 1974 to about
2 million tons. The total catch for 1974 is expected to be 4.5 million tons and
total fishmeal production to be morn, than I million tons. Overfishing, poor
spawning, and unfavorable water conditions held the catch for all of 1973 to
1.8 million tons. Fishmeal exports this year probably will be about 800,000 tons --
50% over 1973 -- substantially increasing the world's protein supply.
Coffee Producers Try to Boost Prices
According to press reports from the International Coffee Organization (ICO)
meetings in London, the coffee producing countries have agreed among themselves
to withhold 12 million bags of coffee (-,bout 20% of exportable production) from
the world market during the coming 1'. /4-75 coffee year. Coffee prices rose sharply
in response to the news even though it is doubtful that the producers will fulfill
their agreement. Just before last year's ICO meetings, the producers agreed to cut
exports for 1973-74 by 5.5 million bags but failed to implement the agreement.
Vigorous selling on the part of some major producers has weakened the market
since early this year, prices fell from a peak of 75 cents per pound (for Central
American coffees) to a low of 52 cents, which prevailed just before the new
producer agreement.
Canada Moves to Reduce Imports of US Coal
Because of snarply increased prices for US coal, Canada plans development
of facilities to move West Canadian coal to Ontario consumers. Eastward shipments
are to begin in 1976 at 5 million tons and are scheduled to reach 10 million
tons by 1980. The proposed move ultimately would cause a 60% reduction in
US coal exports to Canada, which now stand at $250 million. Since supplies for
Eastern Canada will have to come mainly from output now exported to Japan,
Ottawa is considering measures patterned after recent uranium export controls,
which allow sales only in excess of domestic needs.
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Australia to Raise Taxes on Mining
Canberra has proposed tax measures that will reduce incentives for mineral
development. The draft budget for FY 1975:
? bars accelerated depreciation of property in new mining and oil
operations;
? ends the 20% depletion allowance for certain minerals, including copper,
bauxite, and nickel; and
? prohibits tax deductions for expenditures related to company formation
and capital raising.
Such measures have been expected since the publication last spring of a report
indicating that the mining industry had received more in tax concessions, subsidies,
and other benefits than it had paid in taxes and royalties.
USSR: Threshing of Grain Picks Up
Improved weather in September has helped the Soviets push the grain threshing
rate above last year's level, for the first time in 1974. As of midmonth, 84% of
the grain crop had been threshed, compared with 81% last year. Throughout the
harvest period the regime has voiced serious concern about the grain lost because
of delays in threshing. By 16 September, only 5.5 million hectares of cut grain
remained unthreshed -- about --ic-half she August level. The area of grain cut by
mid-September remains slightly below last year's level, amounting to about 88%
of the total sown area. Although the regime claims that more grain has been planted
this year than last year, a smaller area probably will be harvested because of killing
drought in the east and slow development in the northwest.
Credit Policies for East-West Trade
Discussions by Western industrialized countries, aimed at harmonizing export
credit policies worldwide, terminated without agreement earlier this month. In the
past decade, many of these countries competing for Soviet and East Europeav
contracts have provided credits for up to 15 years and at interest rates as low
as 5-1/2%. Although the EC, Japan, and the United States reached tentative
agreement on a maximum credit length of 8-1/2 years for Communist nations,
differences remain over interest rates -- 7-1/2% against 8% - and the nature and
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size of allowable exemptions. The USSR and Eastern Europe have relied heavily
on Western credits to finance imports and have vigorously encouraged credit
competition among their Western trading partners.
US Firm Cancels Plan to Market Soviet Commute, Jet
Soviet hopes for penetrating Western aircraft markets have been dealt a severe
blow. After two years of negotiations, Rockwell International has dropped plans
to market a modified Soviet-built YAK-40 computer aircraft in the United States.
Lntroduction of
the West German-Dutch VFW-614 and northern Ireland's SD-3-30, as well as the
move to produce France's Dassault Falcon-30, caused US airlines to lose interest
Publication of Interest*
People's Republic of China: International Trade Handbook
(ER A 74-63, September 1974,
This handbook provides a short text on PRC trade in 1973 and estimates
of trade in 1974. It contains 12 tables covering trade trends, trading partners,
commodity composition, and Chinese foreign trade corporations. Pushed by soaring
world prices, currency revaluations, and a rising physical volume of imports and
exports, the dollar value of foreign trade in 1973 increased 67% to $9.9 billion.
The United States became China's number two trading partner. The outlook for
1974 is for trade to increase another 3010 to 40%.
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INTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
GNP'
Constant Maikot Pr i:,t Avinalle Annual
Growth flute Since
W
Ind
HOLES
ustrial
ALE PRICES
Avon lie Annual
Growth Rate. Since
I'n'cnnl Change.
Percent Change _-- --- -'
Lnhisl hour Previous 1 Year Plnvlinis
Uuorter Quarter 10711 Earlier tar
Lure :r ruin Peevish I 1 al 3 Months
Month Month 1910 f1Iml Lather
United Status
74 II I
-0.4 I
3.0
-1.2
Uni
ted State
s
A
74
4
2
8
9
5
27
9
32
Japan
74 II
0.0
5.7
-3.3
2.4
Jap
an
ug
Aug 74
.
1.0
.
11.3
.
32.8
.
14.9
West Germany
74 1
1.2
3.5
1.5
9.0
We
st Germa
ny
Jun 74
0.2
7.0
13.1
10.3
France
73 IV
1.8
5.8
5.7
7,3
Fra
nce
Jul 74
-0.4
12.8
32.5
-0.4
United Kingdom
74 I
3.e.
1.9
-4.4
-13.3
Uni
ted Kingd
om
Aug 74
1.3
11.3
25.3
19.3
Itoiy
73 IV
1.9
3.7
5.3
7.7
Ital
y
May 74
0.7
10
48.3
44.1
Canada
74 I
1.7
5A
3.0
7.0
;an
ada
Jun 74
0.1
10.9
23.5
10.1
Aver ago Annual
Growth Rate Silica
Avetep, Annual
Growth Rare Since
I'uleeol Cl:uugi!
Latest hunt Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Month 1070 [arbor [little("
I'en:en
latest hour P
Month Mo
l Chang
revious
nth
e
I Year 3 Months
I9711 far her Earlier
United States
Aug 74
-0.4 I
4.0
-1.0
1.3
United States
Aug 74
1
1.3 I
6.4
11.2
13.2
Japan
Jul 74
0.4
-1.4
-0.3
Japan
Jul 74
11.5
25.2
11.9
West Germany
Jun 74
-2.8
-1.1
-2.2
West Germany
Aug 74
6.1
0.9
2.5
France
United Kingdom
Jun 74
Jun 74
0.8
0.6
5.0
-2.0
2.2
16.2
France
United Kingdom
Jul 74
Jul 74
8.2
16.0
14.4
17.1
15.3
14.0
Italy
Jun 74
5.7
0.5
3.9
Italy
Jul 74
9.9
18.7
22.3
Canada Jun 74
RETAIL SALES*
0.6
3.3
-2.9
Canada
Aug 74
6.7
10.8
12.7
Current Prices Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Chang
latest train Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Month 10711 Earlier Earlier''
Percent Change
latest limn previous
Month Month
I Year 3 Months
19711 Earlier Ea
e
United States
Aug 74
0.6
10.1
9.9
13.7
Unit
ed States
Aug 74
0.3
5.9
5.4
~
Japan
May 74
4,7
13.0
15.9
-1.7
Jap
an
Jun 74
1.6
17.9
15.7
17.6
West Germany
Jun 74
-0.5
7.7
2.0
-0.1
Wes
t German
y
Jun 74
2.0
9.2
5.3
10.4
France
May 74
6.2
8.5
18.1
1.3
Fran
ce
Feb 74
-0.3
12.0
9.2
16.5
United Kingdom
May 74
0
11.2
16.2
7,4
Unit
ed Kingd
om
Jun 74
- 0.6
8.7
0.8
8.3
Italy
Fab 74
8.6
19.0
35.9
36.7
Italy
Jon 74
0.1
20.7
22.7
22 5
Canada
Jun 74
0.2
12.2
17.8
18.4
Can
ada
Jul74
0
12.7
9.6
12.5
Representative Rates Lates
I Year 3 Months 1 Month
t Cate Earlier Earlier Earlier
United States
Dealer-placed finance paper
Sep 4
11.94
9
00
9.00
11.55
Japan
Call money
Sep 4
13.00
.
8.50
12.63
13.50
West Germany
Interbank loans (3 Months)
Sep 4
9.53
14
13
9.26
9.44
France
Call money
Sop 4
13.38
.
9.12
13.00
13.38
'Seasonall
adju
ted
United Kingdom
Sterling interbank loan (3 me)
Sep 4
12.45
14.23
12.26
13.08
y
.
s
"Average for latest 3 montha com
cred
Canada
Finance paper
Sep 4
11.88
8.50
11.05
11.63
p
with average for previous 3 months.
Euro?Dollars Three-month deposits Sep 4 13.74
11.55
11.63 13.60
25 September 1974
Office of Economic Research/CIA
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150037-6
 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150037-6
EXTERNAL. ECONOMIC INDICATORS
EXPORTS?
Lu.b.
United States
Japan
West Gernlany
Franco
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
Unite: Kingdom
Italy
Canada
I ales) Mon III
Jul 74
Aug 74
Jul 74
Aug 74
Aug 74
Jun 74
Jul 74
8,307
4,802
7,824
4,044
3,237
2,270
2,753
Lnlusl Mnnlh
Jul 74 9,036
Aug 74 4,480
J0174 5,806
Aug 74 4,409
Aug 74 3,980
Jun 74 2,827
Jul74 2,778
TRADE BALANCE'
I.o.b./f.o.b.
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
BASIC BALANCE"
Latest Month
--- - ----- - ---
Jul 74
Aug 74
Jul 74
Aug 74
Aug 74
Jun 74
Jul 74
Million US S
-728
377
1.958
-445
-749
-550
-25
Current and Long-Term-Capital Transactions
Latest Permd Cumulative (Million US$)
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Million US S 1973
74 II -2,740 -954
Aug 74 -270 -9,321
Jul 74 288 5,069
73 IV -431 -2,471
74 1 84 84
7311 -336 639
74 1 - 195 -195
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
1972
-2,164
-6,020
1,438
- 369
-1,033
971
-191
Change
1,210
3,301
3.631
-2,102
1,117
-332
-4
Billion US $
latest Month -- ---
---- 1 Year 3 Munlhs
End of Billion US S Jun 1970 Earlier Panne,
Jul 74 14.9 14.5
Aug 74 12.9 4.1
Jul 74 33.5 8.8
Aug 74 8.5 4.4
Aug 74 6.8 2.8
Jun 74 5.3 4.7
Aug 74 5.9 4.3
12.9 14.6
15.1 13.2
34.1 33.8
11.2 8.1
6.5 6.9
6.0 6.7
5.6 6.2
'Seasonally adjusted.
"Converted into US dollars at current market rates of or. henge.
25 Set'tember 1974
As of 20 Sell 74
JapanlYenl
West Germany (genlsrhe
MAI
France Otani)
IPnuud
United Kingdom Slerhngl
Italy heal
Canada lnnllatl
Aveialle Amount
Growth (Into Same
I'm cum Change-
Lnlusl boon I'nlvu01% 1 Year 3 months
Muntb Montle I9711
Jul 74
1 0.5 I
11.7
Jun 74
0.9
17.1
Jim 74
.. 2.4
15.0
May 74
0.0
14.3
Apr 74
5rr
12.5
Apr 74
b.8
13.3
May 74
1.5
14.9
eau hm
14,3
20,1
31.8
58.1
109.7
73.9
59.2
Avutagu Annual
Growth flame Since
r n:unt Clnnyl:r
Latest hum I'ruwous I Yeat 3 Months
Month Mun11h 19 111 Cather E ill hill
Jul 74 0.5 11.7 25.7 14.3
Jute 74. 2.7 10.2 44.5 30.6
Jun 74 0.2 4.7 17.7 13.5
May 74 0.7 10.4 29.4 46.8
Apr 74 3.8 12.6 28.8 57.7
Apr 74 5.6 13.8 39.6 63.6
May 74 0.8 12.4 38.2 48.4
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
--
I'un:cul Cluuglu
C+ulal
25,7
35.1
20.3
19.3
23.9
29.4
44.1
Lolest It um I'rnvums I Year
Month Month 19711 Earlier
Jul74 2.4 10.5 52.3
Jun 74 2.3 17.7 83.2
Jun 74 1.7 6.9 29.7
May 74 4.0 10.0 63.0
Apr 74 3.5 21.5 6t.n
Apr 74 5.4 26.0 90.8
May 74 3.4 10.6 30.0
spot Bala
US S
Put Unit
0.0034
0.3701
0.2087
2.3140
0.0015
1.0137
3 Munlhs
Carhnr
27.1
27.7
16.9
74.4
89.5
163.4
54.2
18 Dec
1971
4.16
21.21
5.99
-11.19
-12.15
1.59
19 Mai
1973
-11.07
6.'1
-5.31
-5.97
-14.63
1.60
Ilec 06
22.58
49.60
3.37
-17.08
-5.62
9.90
TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATES ?
As of 20 Sep 14 Percent Change Irma
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Dcc 66
-14.13
13.08
29.15
-16.59
35.53
-25.62
7.53
18llec
1971
-4.87
-0.55
12.26
-3.26
-21.32
-24.32
0.93
19 Mar
1973
1."1
-12.38
7.25
-5.72
-6.92
-17.41
2.57
13 Sep
1974
1.47
0.21
0.48
0.06
0
0.01'
13 Sep
1974
-0.39
1.41
-0.07
0.28
-0.17
-0.28
-0.01
"'Weighting is based on each listed country's rrsda with 16 other industrialized
countries to reflect the competitive impact of exchange-rate variations
among the major currencies.
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150037-6
i;i nnlhulvn
EXPORT PRICES
Million 115 $ I'urceul
Ch
64,915
37,970
ange
44.0
United Status
34,362
22,047
51.7
Jal,tln
50,097
35,081
41.3
West Germany
30,297
23,434
29.3
France
23,403
1 18,018
25.7
United Kingdom
13,285
1 9,401
41.3
Italy
18,292
14,287
28.0
Canada
milhor' 11S S Vincent
EXPORT PRICES
Natipnel Currency
1014 191;1 Cluggpt
55,000
30.87-
47.8
United States
35,407
19,920
77.7
Japan
30,353
27,908
30.3
West Germany
33,157
22,021
46.6
France
31,409
21,385
47.2
United Kingdom
10,852
10,708
57.4
Italy
17,711
13,056
35.7
Canada
Cmnulatwe (Million US SI
IMPORT PRICES
National Currency
1974 1973 Change
- 991
-909
-82
United States
-1,045
2,721
-3,766
Japan
14,345
7.972
6,373
West Germany
-2,859
813
-3,672
France
-8,060
-2.767
-5,299
United Kingdom
-3,560
-1,307
?-2,259
Italy
581
1,231
-650
Canada
EXCHANGE RATES