ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150046-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 29, 2009
• Sequence Number: 46
• Publication Date: October 23, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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25X1
Secret
Economic Intelligence Weekly
Secret
CIA No. 8225/74
23 October 1974
Copy N2 258
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ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
25X1
25X1
25X1
EC Extends Beef Ban; The EC Commission's decision to
extend the ban on beef exports indefinitely may
provoke retaliatory action by beef exporters.
25X1 ~ee page 9.) In another development, the Com-
mission has recommended that negotiations begin on a
non-preferential trade agreement with Mexico. FI
Canada: Wheat Export Sales Suspended; Frost has
reduced the 1974 harvest to 13.3 million tons, 20%
below last year. ~~See page 9.) 25X1
OECD: Secretariat Gloomier on Economic Outlook; The
Secretariat now foresees stagnation of output in the
major developed countries through 1975.
see page 1.) 25X1
China: Grain Imports Cut; Peking has sharply reduced its
scheduled imports for 1974, with most of the impact
falling on US shipments. see page 7.)
West German Investment in the United States Acceler-
ates; Direct investment in the first half of $200 million
compares with $130 million for all of 1973.
see page 4.) In the meantime, sluggish economic
activity and tight credit are driving West German
businesses into bankruptcy at an increasing rate.
wee page 9.)
ee page 5.j 25X1
Saudi Arabia: Oil Revenue and Investment Flow in
1974; Much of the greatly increased net revenues in
second half 1474 will flow into the US capital markets.
Banana Exporters Union: Alive But Not Well; Efforts by
four countries to tax banana exports may cost them a
substantial share of the US market. see 25X1
British Retail Prices rose 1.1% in September, the largest
monthly gain since May. The increase will trigger
cost-of-living pay raises for more than 10 million
workers; a further increase is likely next month. So far
in 1974, eight threshhold pay hikes have been triggered
by the United Kingdom's spiraling inflation.
lee page 9.)
page 8.)
Indonesia to Sell Rice to Bannladesh; Rising government
stocks have prompted an offer of 50,000 to 80,000 tons.
Japan: No Recovery in Sight; Even though an expected
upturn in demand has failed to materialize, Tokyo seem:,
determined to stay with its tough anti-inflationary
policy. see page 3.)
The Dollar, following a brief rally Monday, eased again
last week against most major currencies. Declining
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Eurodollar rates continued to dominate exchange rate
movements. The largest losses were against the Swiss
franc, which gained more than 1%. The French
franc, lira, and Benelux currencies also strengthened
slightly. The pound, mark, and yen declined marginally
against the dollar.
Gold was fixed at $158.00 an ounce in London
yesterday afternoon, up $3 for the week.
Sugar prices continue to skyrocket. Cotton prices are
trending downward.
Chart, page A-4.)
Sugar Prices Continue Upward Spiral, The world market
price has climbed to 41 cents per pound f.o.b. Carib-
bean, more than quadruple the 1 January price.
see page 10.)
25X1'
Copper Prices on the LME edged below 60 cents a
pound to 59.8 cents on Monday for the first time since
early 1973. US producers dropped their price to 75.6
cents. Weak demand continues to put downward pres-
sure on prices in spite of reduced Japanese sales. LME
stocks reached 97,000 tons on Monday, the highest level
since March 1973. LME tin prices plunged from $4.45 a
pound in early September to $3.12 on Monday.
see Metals Price Chart, page A-3.)
Agriculture: Market Prices are beginning to react to
tightening supplies of wheat, corn, and soybeans, em-
phasized by the renegotiation of US grain sales to the
USSR. Wheat prices shot up from the steady average of
the past three months to top $5.00 a bushel on Monday
while the average corn prices for the first three weeks of
October hit are all-time high of $3.75 a bushel. Soybeans
reached a 1974 peak after a slight drop in September.
u
Secret
Communist Trade and Aid Activities in Less Develcped
Countries (See page 10.)
Egypt's Agricultural Prospects (See page 10.)
COMPARATIVE INDICATORS
Recent Data Concerning Internal Economic Activities
(See page A-1.)
Recent Data Concerning External Economic Activities
(See page A-2.)
Metal Prices (See page A-3.)
Agricultural Prices (See page A-4.)
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OECD: SECRETARIAT GLOOMIER ON ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
In its current forecast, the OECD Secretariat paints a much more pessimistic
picture of short-term economic prospects in the major developed countries.
The Secretariat now sees stagnation in output through 1975. In July it had
forecast a 2.75% annual rate of growth for the seven major countries in the second
half of 1974 and a 3.75% rate in the first half of 1975.
Major revisions have been made in projections for the United States, West
Germany, and Japan. On a weighted-average basis, OECD has cu` its projected
growth rate for these countries from 2.4% to -0.3% for the current half and from
4% to -0.6% for the first half of 1975. The reductions for the United States are
particularly sharp; the Secretariat now is predicting a decline in US output in both
1974 and 1975.
Developed Countries: Projections of Economic Growth
Percent Change in GNP1
Second Half
Second
First Half Half
1974
1975
1975
OECD
(Jul)
OECD
(Current)2
CIA
(Sep)
OECD OECD
(Jul) (Current)2
CIA
(Sep)
OECD
(Current)2
Canada
3.5
2.5
2.2
5.25 2.5
4.0
3.75
France
4.5
4.25
3.3
4.25 3.0
3.9
1.75
Italy
0
0
0.4
1.5 -0.25
0.6
.0.25
Japan
4.5
3.0
2.4
7.25 1.5
3.9
1.75
United Kingdom3
4.5
5.0
2.2
1.25 -1.0
0.6
0.75
West Germany
3.5
0
-1.0
4.25 3.0
3.9
0.75
Six major foreign
countries
4.0
2.4
1.5
4.5 1.7
3.2
1.4
United States
1.5
-1.25
3 -2.0
-0.75
Seven major developed
countries
2.75
0.6
3.75 -0.2
1. Seasonally adjusted annual rate over preceding half.
2. Tentative forecasfo, not to be publicly attributed to OECD.
3. GDP.
Note: Comments and queries regarding the Economic /nrelli8ence Weekly are welcomed.
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The change in the OECD appraisal is attributable to several factors:
? economic policii s are more restrictive than was assumed in July,
particularly in the United States, Japan, and West Germany;
? recessionary momentum has become more pronounced than was expected
in July;
? prices have been rising more rapidly than forecast, reducing real incomes
and making governments more reluctant to loosen monetary and fiscal
policies; and
? stockbuilding has been particularly strong, pointing to weaker demand
in 1975 than was previously forecast.
OECD price and trade forecasts also have become more pessimistic. The
Secretariat sees double-digit inflation continuing in most major countries throughout
1975. The principal cause is anticipated wage increases of 15% to 20%, with rising
food prices aggravating the problem. The Secretariat expects the growth of trade
volume to slow considerably in 1975.
The current OECD projections for 1974 are more in line with our September
expectations than those published in July. Nonetheless, some differences remain.
For example, even the revised OECD forecast of zero growth in West Germany
in the sc >nd half of 1974 is based on a projected rise in export volume. Our
forecast was for zero growth in export volume and a 1% fall in real output. The
OECD growth estimate for Japan, though now closer to ours, reflects expectations
of a better export record and poorer domestic performance than we thought
probable.
If we were making projections today for the first half of 1975, we would
lower our September figures for several countries:
? evidence is mounting that Japanese export prospects are weakening and
that a large inventory overhang will stymie domestic recovery;
? the growth outlook for Canada is dimmed by worsening economic
prospects in the United States; and
? the outlook in France, still relatively bright, has been dampened by
slackening consumer demand and scaling down of industrial expansion
plans.
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JAPAN: NO RECOVERY IN SIGHT
The Japanese economy shows no sign of recovering from the depressed level
of the first half, when real GNP fell at an 8% annual rate. Nonetheless, Tokyo
seems determined to stay with its tough anti-inflation program even at the expense
of alienating labor.
The upturn in demand has failed to materialize, largely because of continued
tight government policies. Despite record wage hikes earlier this year, household
spending continues weak because of reduction of work hours and erosion of income
gains by inflation. Fixed investment spending - down sharply in the first half -
remains becalmed, with new machinery orders still running nearly 5% below a year
ago.
The 3.5% drop in industrial output in August was the steepest in 25 years.
Recovery is unlikely under present policy, especially since tight credit is making
inventory accumulation difficult. Inventories of finished goods already stand at
record levels, following a large buildup in the summer. The inventory overhang
couid delay recovery until well into 1975.
JAPAN: Inventories Up; Production Down
Index 1970=100
175
Stocks of Finished
Industrial Goods-
100 Ed=-- I ^ . I I . 1 I I
1970 1971 1972 1973 J F M A M 1 J
1974
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Japan's strong export performance recently has been the only bright spot.
Export volume has been running 15% to 20% above year-earlier levels and value
gains have been substantially greater. Although the export volume growth has begun
to slow because of the economic downturn abroad, import demand has slipped
even faster. As a result, the trade balance is showing relatively large monthly
surpluses.
Tokyo remains more concerned about controlling inflation than stimulating
recovery. The only policy shift has been a slight easing in credit restrictions for
the current quarter when requirements for corporate funds are seasonally high.
Tokyo is also providing financial aid to depressed industries, such as textiles and
construction, to keep the number of bankruptcies down. By these measures, the
Tanaka government has been able to maintain business support for its
anti-inflationary policies.
The major threat to Tokyo's anti-inflation, policies is likely to be union demand
for another steep wage increase next year. Tokyo wants to keep increases to 15%,
but labor -- accustomed to winning sizable increases with little resistance - will
push for 25%. Japanese firms are in no position to absorb cost increases of this
magnitude, particularly in the absence of their accustomed productivity gains. A
locking of horns between labor on the one hand and government and business
on the other seems likely.
WEST GERMAN INVESTMENT
IN THE UNITED STATES ACCELERATES
West German direct investment in the United States took a sudden upturn
in the first half of 1974. Flows reached $200 million, compared with $130 million
in all of 1973. West Germany's $1.2 billion. in US holdings now ranks fifth, after
those of the United Kingdom, Canada, Switzerland, and the Netherlands.
Rapidly rising labor costs and an increase of more than 40% in the dollar
value of the mark since 1971 have made investment in the United States increasingly
attractive. The revaluation has both reduced the competitiveness of West German
goods in the US market and increased the mark's purchasing power in relation
to US factors of production.
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The We3t German investment boom is concentrated in the chemical industry.
Ground was broken lust spring for two Hoechst plants in Texas and South Carolina,
and several BASF plants are being expanded. The total cost of these facilities
will approximate $400 million. New West German investment in the US electrical
industry reached about $30 million in the first half of 1974. Facilities in these
two industries traditionally have accounted for about half of West German direct
investment here.
The outlook is for continued large investment flows from West Germany. The
shift in relative competitiveness in certain industries is being reinforced by Bonn's
encouragement of increased production abroad to reduce the huge trade surplus.
The United States is a major prospect for West German investment because it takes
10% of FRG exports. Volkswagen, for example, has reacted to a sharp drop in
US sales by showing renewed interest in future development of a US assembly
plant, potentially costing $250 million or so.
SAUDI ARABIA:
OIL REVENUE AND INVESTMENT FLOWS IN 1974
Anticipated Saudi Arabian oil revenues of more than $17 billion in the second
half of 1974 are more than double the revenues of the first half and are 10 times
"xpected imports. The Saudis will accumulate a current account surplus of more
than $15 billion in the second half, ^,ompared with nearly $6 billion in the first.
As a result the flow of petrodollars to the US market will s.vell.
Saudi Arabia: Estimated Oil Receipts
1974
1st
Qtr
2d
Qtr
3d
Qtr
4th
Qtr
Total
Total
Receipts, (excluding
retroactive pay-
2.2
5.2
8.0
9.2
24.6
ments
Retroactive pay-
2.2
S.2
6.4
7.6
21.4
ments
....
1.6
1.6
3.2
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The sharp increase in Saudi oil receipts in the current half year reflects normal
lags in payments and deferral of company payments for government-owned oil.
Royalties and taxes are paid one and three months, respectively, after production.
The huge price hike effective I January therefore did not greatly enlarge Saudi
revenues until the second quarter. The ARAMCO concessionaires were allowed to
delay full payment for the government's participation oil until the second half
of 1974 because of uncertainties surrounding the timing and terms of the final
agreement. At the end of June, these deferred payments totaled $2 billion.
Saudi Arabia: Balance of Payments
1974
Estimated
First Half
Projected
Second Half
Export receipts
7,450
17,175
Oil
7,445
17,17
Non-oil
5
5
5
Import payments (f.o.b.)
1,460
1,715
Trade balance
5,990
15,460
Net services
-235
90
Current account balance
5,755
15,370
Net capital flowsl
-720
Increase reported in official reserves
3,210
1. Including both Saudi concessionary loans and unilateral transfers.
Fven with a jump in imports in the first half to $1.5 billion, Saudi Arabia
achieved a current account surplus of almost $6 billion, an eighth of which was
spent on foreign aid. The Saudis have reported an increase in official foreign reserves
of only $3.2 billion to the IMF; the residual apparently co!lsists largely of
unreported direct placeme,:ts of funds in Europe.
Saudi investment in the United States - mainly in the form of US securities,
bank deposits, and equity shares - was six times as great in the third quarter
as in the second quarter. Growing concern over the ability of the Eurodollar market
to absorb additional petrodollars will stimulate .in even greater inflow into the
United States during the current quarter.
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CHINA: GRAIN IMPORTS CUT
The Chinese have sharply reduced their scheduled agricultural imports for
1974, with most of the impact falling on US shipments.
A contract for 600,000 tons of US soybeans, which had originally been
substituted for corn, has been canceled. Moreover, three contracts for US wheat
have been deferred until 1975. In all cases, contamination of cargoes was the stated
reason for the changes. Shipment of 500,000 tons of Canadian wheat will be
deferred until 1975 because of dock strikes. The overall result is a reduction of
about 1.8 million tons from our earlier estimates of Chinese grain imports in 1974.
No relief is in sight for the tight US grain market, however, as the United States
has recently agreed to sell 2.2 million tons of grain to the USSR.
China: Grain Imports
Million Tons
1973
Estimate
as of 30 Jun
Current
Estimate
Preliminary
1975
Total
7.5
9.4
7.6
7.1
United States
4.1
4.1
2.4
1.6
Canada
2.5
3.0
2.5
2.5
Australia
0.8
1.2
1.6
1.8
Argentina
0.1
0.9
0.9
1.0
France
....
0.2
0.2
0.2
Aside from the factors of contamination and dock strikes, the Chinese appear
to have raised their estimate of the 1974 crop. Minister of Agriculture and Forestry
Sha Feng has just claimed that grain production this year will surpass the 1973
level of 250 million tons. Growing conditions for the important fall crop, which
is now beginning to be harvested, have been good and may be the main reason
for Chinese optiirlism. In addition, erratic weather early in the year probably I'M
the Chinese to overbuy grain at midyear, when wheat prices appeared to be
softening.
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BANANA EXPORTERS UNION: ALIVE BUT NOT WELL
Efforts by four members of the Union of Banana Exporting Countries --
Colombia, Costa Rica, Honduras, and Panama - to raise revenues through an export
tax may cost them substantial shares of the US market.
The four countries, normally the source of 75% of US banana supplies, have
been taxing banana exports since May 1974. They have been unable to persuade
Ecuador (the world's largest banana exporter), Guatemala, and Nicaragua to go
along with the tax. Of the three, only Guatemala has joined the Union.
Under the scheme proposed last spring, all seven countries were to adopt a
tax of 2-1/2 cents per pound, which would have raised their earnings by $275
million annually and probably would have boosted US retail prices by 15%-2070.
By June, four countries had imposed the tax, at rates of 1-1/4 to 2-1/2 cents.
As a result, three US companies that dominate the industry threatened to
sell their plantations in Costa Rica and Panama and also put strong presst;re on
Honduras. In late July, United Brands suspended shipments from Panama for 2-1/2
weeks. These measures persuaded the countries to reduce the tax temporarily to
0.6 cent, per pound. In the meantime, the companies have had no trouble absorbing
the tax, since normal seasonal factors, strikes on Honduran and Costa Rican
plantations, and losses from the September Honduran hnn?icane have kept prices
high.
If the four countries insist on the full amount of the tax, the companies
almost certainly will shift their operations toward Ecuador and other non-Union
countries. Ecuador, which lost half its US market to Central American producers
in the 1960s, no doubt will cooperate enthusiastically in such efforts. The UN
Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that during the next two years
Ecuador could expand banana exports by 20%, an amount equal to two-fifths of
the exports of the four taxing countries. The Philippines and Taiwan, where the
companies have established plantations to supply Japan, are additional potential
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Canada: Wheat Export Sales Suspended
The Canadian Wheat Board has temporarily suspended export sales because
of crop losses. Frost has reduced the 1974 harvest to an estimated 13.3 million
tons, 20% less than last year, and ha3 rendered an abnormal amount suitable only
for feeding livestock. Exports will probably not exceed 10.5 million tons -- the
lowest level in five years. To export even this amount, Ottawa will have to draw
down stocks by 2 million tons -- the maximum probably considered prudent.
Stocks now amount to 10 million tons, one-third of the Free World total.
The EC Commission has decided to continue indefinitely the ban on beef
imports scheduled to expire 31 October. Extension of the embargo, which is
intended to relieve a glut caused by domestic overproduction and slack demand,
will further incense the beef exporting countries and may provoke retaliatory trade
restrictions. Austria, a small beef exporter, has already suspended import
concessions granted EC table grapes and wine.
West German Business Failures Rise 25X1
Sluggish economic activity and tight credit are driving German businesses into
bankruptcy at an increasing rate this year. Insolvencies numbered 4,900 through
August, 42% above the year-earlier figure. Although bank failures have received
the most publicity, construction firms have been more widely hit. More than
100 building concerns failed in July alone.
Indonesia to Sell Rice to Bangladesh
Indonesia this week offered to sell rice from government stocks to
Bangladesh -- reportedly 50,000 or 80,000 tons. As a result of large imports earlier
this year and a good spring harvest, government stocks have risen to an estimated
900,000 tons, probably straining storage capacity. In apprising the United States,
Japan, and Australia of its move, Jakarta stressed that Indonesia still needs the
food aid previously requested.
0
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Sugar Prices Continuc Upward Spiral
Tightening supplies and continued strong demand have pushed world market
prices to 41 cents per pound F.o.b. Caribbean, more than quadruple the 1 January
level. Poor weather has already affected production in the European Community
and has dimmed harvest prospects in Brazil, Cuba, and the rest of the Caribbean.
At the same time, world demand, bolstered by large continuing Middle East
purchases, remains high. Output is now expected to fall below consumption for
the fourth year in the last five. Stocks, which are already low, will be drawn down
to only 17% of estimated annual consumption. The US price, now at 39.5 cents,
will converge with the world price with the expiration of the US Sugar Act on
31 December 1974
Communist Aid and Trade Activities in Less Developed
Countries, September 1974
(ER RP 74-21, October 1974
The October monthly publication features a quarterly wrapup of
Communist-LDC oil trade activities, as well as a summary of significant
developments in Communist economic and military relations with less developed
countries.
Egypt's Agricultural Prospects
(ER RP 74-20, October 1974,
Because of the existence of a complicated set of irrigation and crop rotation
practices, developed over time to maximize the return to scant resources, little
change is to be expected in the pattern of Egyptian agricultural production and
trade in the short run. Egypt will continue to feature high-"alue commercial crops
and to depend on imports for land-intensive commodities such as meat and cereals.
During the next five years or so, continued improvement in drainage and in plant
varieties should result in the maintenance of per capita output and permit a slow
rise in agricultural exports. In the longer term, Sadat's economic liberalization
program could generate an urban boom that would inflate the nation's food bill
and strip away part of the rural labor force.
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INTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
GNP'
Average Annual
Average Annual
Constant Market Prices
Growth Bete Since
Growth Here Since
Percent Change
Percent Chaogu
Latest from Previous 1 Year Pre
vious
L?nest train Previous
I Year 3 Months
Quarter Quarter 1970 Earlier Qu
arter
Month Month
1970 Earhr Lacher
United States
74 III
-0,7
3.2
-2.3
-
2.9
United
States
Sep 74
0.8
0.8
27 ,1
20.5
Japan
7411
0.0
5,7
-3.3
2.4
Japan
Sep 74
0.1
11,1
30.7
0.5
West Germany
74 11
- 0.7
3.1
1,1
-
2,9
West
Germany
Sep 74
0.3
0,9
14.7
7.3
France
73 IV
1.7
-3,0
0.0
7.0
Franc
e
Aug 74
-0.7
12.4
30.3
-2.5
United Kingdom
741
-3.5
1.9
-4.4
-1
3.3
Unite
d Kingdo
m
Sep 74
1.5
11.5
25.7
19,9
Italy
73 IV
1,9
3.7
5.3
7,7
Italy
Jul 74
2.5
18.3
47.1
24.2
Canada
74 11
0
5,7
4.9
Canad
a
Jul 74
2.0
11.2
24.8
12.2
Average Annual
Grower Rare Since
Average Annual
Growth nine Since
Peiceut Change
Percent Change
Latest train Previous 1 Year 3
Months
Latest Irern Previous
1 Ycar 3 Months
Month Merrill 1970 Earlier Ea
rlier
Merrill Merrill
19111 Earlier Earlier
United States
Sap 74
0.3
4.0
-1.0
0.1
Unite
d States
Aug 74
1.3
8.4
11.2
13.2
Japan
Aug 74
-3.5
5.2
-8.3
-1
3.2
Japa
n
Aug 74
1.0
11,5
25.4
15.4
West Germany
Aug 74
0
2.5
-3.8
-
7,9
West
Germany
Aug 74
0
8.1
0.9
2.5
France
Aug 74
0
8.2
4.1
1
2.4
Franc
e
Aug 74
0.8
8.2
14.5
13.4
United Kingdom
Aug 74
1.2
2.9
1.2
7.5
Unite
d Kingdo
m
Sep 74
1.1
10.4
17.1
8.7
Italy
Aug 74
-4.8
3.8
-n,8
0
Italy
Aug 74
2.1
10.3
20.5
28.9
Canada
RETAIL SALES'
Jul 74
-0.8
5.8
Av
r 1.9
erage Annu
al
-5.8
Cana
da
Sep 74
0.8
8.7
A
10.9
verage Annu
9.7
al
Current Prices
Growth Rate Since
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latest Iron Previous I Year 3 Months
Percent Change
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier"
Month Month 19111 Earlier Earlier
United States
-1.2
9.7
8.8
17.8
Unite
d States
Sep 74
0.1
5.8
5.8
2.2
Japan
May 74
4.7
13.0
15.9
-1.7
Japa
n
Jun 74
1.6
17.9
15.7
17.9
West Germany
Jun 74
-1.5
7.7
2.0
1.5
West
Germany
Jul 74
0.4
9.1
7.1
9.7
France
May 74
0.2
8.5
18.1
1.3
Franc
e
Jun 74
1.3
12.7
10.7
15.9
United Kingdom
Jun 74
3.3
11.9
14.7
8.3
Unite
d Kingdo
m
Sep 74
-0.4
8.5
2.4
5.1
Italy
Apr 74
0.9
17.4
27.0
34.0
Italy
Jan 74
0.1
20.7
22.7
22.5
Canada
Jul 74
1.7
12.4
18.2
24.8
Cana
da
Aug74
-0.7
I 12.3
7.3
1 Year 3 Months I Month
Representative Rates Latest Date Earlier Earlier Earlier
United States
Dealer-placed finance paper
Oct 2 1
10.50
8.50
9.00
11.94
Japan
Call money
Sep 25
13.00
9.00
12.83
13.50
West Germany
Interbank loans(3Months)
Oct 2
9.48
13.88
9.10
9.53
France
Call money
Sep 25
13.38
11.75
14.25
13.50
'Seasonally adjusted
United Kingdom
Sterling interbank loan (3 tea)
Oct 2
11.71
13.27
13.27
12.45
.
-Average for latest 3 months compared
Canada
Finance paper
Oct 2
11.25
8.75
11.05
11.88
with average for previous 3 months.
Euro-Dollars
Three-month deposits
Oct 2
12.04
10.38
13.91
13.74
23 October 1974
Office of Economic Research/CIA
Al
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 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150046-6
EXTERNAL ECJNOIVIIC INDiCAI RS
EXPORTS"
I u.b.
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
IMPORTS`
1.0.11.
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
CwnuInlivn
Latest Month
- Million US $ Percent
Million US $ 1074 1073 Cluugph
Aug 74 0,370 93,280 44,014 43.8
Sep 74 4,492 38,867 25,790 50.0
Aug 74 7,907 58,003 42,400 38.0
Sep 74 4,016 34,313 20,057 28.7
Sep 74 3,296 20,698 21,140 20.2
Aug 74 2,464 19,020 13,533 40.6
Aug 74 2,871 21,021 10,329 28.7
Million US S
Million US S 1974 1913
Aug 74 9,502 05,402 44,870
Sep 74 4,087 39,483 22,737
Aug 74 0,007 42,419 32,017
Sop 74 4,229 37,388 25,800
Sep 74 4,174 35,843 24,341
Aug 74 3,173 24,337 15,140
Aug 74 2,860 20,590 14,884
TRADE BALANCE*
f.o.b./f.o.b.
Aug 74
Japan Sep 74
West Germany Aug 74
Franco Sep 74
United Kingdom Sep 74
Italy Aug 74
Cap3da I Aug 74
Percent
Change
4.'`1.8
73.6
30.1
4B.0
40.4
00.7
38.3
Latest Month Cumulative (Million US $)
Million US S 1974
1 -1,132 t -2,113
40th
1,840
-214
-879
-709
11
-628
16,184
-3,073
-8,945
-5,311
432
1973
-856
3,059
9,849
1,051
-3,193
-1,607
1,445
Chaleg!
-1,2j7
-3,084
6,335
-4,125
-5,752
-3,704
-1,014
PASIC BALANCE"
arrant an ng? erm?Capital Transactions
Latest Period CuinnUmve (Million US S)
Million US S 1974 1973 Change
United States' 74 II -2,740 -954 -2,104 1,210
Japan Sep 74 160 -9,099 -6,874 -2,425
West Germany Aug 74 -424 4,558 5,817 -1,259
France 73 IV -475 NA. -2.472 NA.
United Kingdom 74 I 84 84 -1,033 1,117
Italy 741 -2,037 -2,031 975 -3,012
Canada 741 -195 -195 -228 33
United States
Japan
West Germany
Fran;.e
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
End If Oillien US $ Jun 1970
Aug 74 15.5 14.5
Sep 74 13.2 4.1
Aug 74 33.1 8.8
Sep 74 8.8 4.4
Sep 74 7.2 2.8
Jun 74 5.3 4.7
Sro 74 5.8 4.3
I Ynar
Earlier
12.9
14.8
33.4
11.2
8.4
6.0
5.7
'Seasonally adjusted,
"Converted Into US dollars at current market rates of exchange.
23 October 1974
3 Months
Earlier
14.9
13.4
34.4
8.2
6.7
6.7
6.1
EXPORT PRICES
I1SS
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
EXPORT PRICES
National Currency
United Stales
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
IMPORT PRICES
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
AvurOll Annual
Growth Role Since
Percent Chnnau -'----.--_.--- -_.-_
Latasl train Prnvmus I your 3 Months
Merrill Month 19711 Earlier Cartier
Aug 74 6.7 12.9 27.9 43,9
Aug 74 0.2 10.1 2614 0.2
Jul 74 2.2 15.3 7.6 17.9
Jun 74 2.5 14.7 11.6 316
Jul 74 1.7 13.5 25.4 30.4
May 74 1.9 13.0 30,8 74.7
May 74 1.4 14.7 43.2 55.2
Average Annual
Growth Rule Since
Percent Cllmhgu---- '-------
Latest Irurn Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Mnnlh 19111 Earlier Earlier
Aug 74 5.7 12.9 27.9 43.9
Aug 74 4.1 11.3 42.8 39.8
Jul 74 3.4 5.4 18.0 23.0
Jun 74 3.3 11.1 28.5 42.5
Jul 74 1.6 13.6 73.3 29.8
May 74 1.3 13.9 40.2 52.3
May 74 0.7 12.2 37.3 44.7
Pen seal Change
Latest (ruin Prevnnrs
Munch Month
Aug 74 I 2.9 I
Aug 74
Jul 74
Jun 74
Jul 74
May 74
May 74
2.6
0.4
0
0.4
0.3
4.7
19711
19.8
17.3
6.8
15.6
21.3
25.5
11.0
EXCHANGE RATES Spot Raie
As of 18 Oct 74
JapanlYunl
West Germany (Ma;lkl`he
France IF:ancl (Pound
United Kingdom sterling(
Italy (ora)
Canada (Dnnar)
Us S
Per Unit
0.0033
0.3885
0.2115
2.3325
0.0015
1.0179
Dec 6G
21.06
54.53
4.75
-16.42
-6.56
10.35
Average Annual
Growth Flare Since
I Year
Earlier
53.4
77.8
32.7
61.5
57.1
85.5
30.4
18 Dec
1971
2.86
25.20
7.41
- 1 0.48
-13.02
2.01
19 Mn
1973
-12.17
9.71
-4.04
-5.22
-15.48
2.02
TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATES..
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Dec 66
-14.46
12.73
31.47
-16.93
-35.27
-28.52
7.90
18 Dec
1971
-5.18
-0.79
4.44
-3.56
-21.02
-27.15
1.31
19 Mar
1973
1.42
-12.61
9.40
-6.02
-6.60
-20.20
2.95
3 Months
Earlier
34.9
16.6
21.8
37.0
17.9
45.3
62.8
11 Oct
1974
-0.30
0.78
0.52
0.02
0.13
0.03
11 Oct
1974
-0.18
-0.42
0.21
-0.09
-0.37
-0.44
-0.01
*"Weighting is based on each listea country's trade with 16 other industrialized
countries to reflect the competitive impact of exchange-rate variations
among the major currencies.
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 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150046-6
me r ML. rr%1%0 V_ 47
(Monthly Average Price)
() nilc,r, NI( ~ I ~ I I
Lxci~,rn~,*
Jul
1972 73
25L I I
Jul
1972 73
Cash Prices
21 Oct 14 Oct Sap 74
Average
Oct 73
Average
Copper-LME (C per pound)
59.8
64.5
65.7
94.1
Copper-US (C per pound)
75.6
79.6
82.3
59.5
Lead-LME (C per pound)
24.2
24.0
24.3
21.5
Lead- US (C per pound)
24.5
24.5
24.5
16.5
Zinc-LME (C per pound)
23.8
37.4
41.0
53.0
Zinc-US (C per pound)
38.0
38.0
37.4
20.4
Tin-LME (C per pound)
311.7
314.2
414.7
245.0
Tin-US (C per pound)
350.5
356.8
416.0
245.9
Steel scrap (S per long ton)
N.A.
119.0
114.3
67.4
Platinum US dealer ($ per troy ounce)
171.5
180.5
169.6
167.6
Platinum-US producer ($ per troy ounce)
190.0
190.0
190.0
158.0
COMMODITIES
"Approximates world market price frequently used by major world producers and traders,
although only small quantities of these metals are actually traded on the LME.
"Producers' price, covers most primary metals sold in the United States.
tGluoted on New York market. ttComposite price for Chicago, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh.
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150046-6
 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150046-6
AGRICULTURAL PRICES
(Monthly Average Price)
1.21
Oct
u
Jul
SUGAR
37,9
L 7
SOYBEANS
1.21
l I i opt
Jul
1972 73 74
J1972
COMMODITIES
1-21
Oct
1-21
Oct
0Jul
1972 73 74
1?z1
100 Oct 73 74
* This is a compiled Index by the Economist
for 16 food commodities which enter international
trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-year moving
averages of Imports into Industrialized countries.
21 Oct 14 Oct Sep 74 Oct 73
Average Average
Wheat-Kansas City #2 Hard Winter ($ per bushel) 5.01 4.96 4.38 4.72
Corn-Chicago #2 Yellow ($ per bushel) 3.76 3.79 3.56 2.37
Soybeans-Chicago #1 Yellow ($ per bushel) 8.43 8.43 7.55 5.62
Sugar-World Raw New York #11 (c per pound) 40.55 38.00 34.40 9.60
Cotton-Memphis ($ per pound) 0.4590 0.4565 0.4900 0.7560
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150046-6
I 1-21
L I I Oct
Jul
1972 73 74
CORN
3.75
f`4 r
l
41
FOOD ;NDEX*
a
r '
n'
'
;S A
r:5