ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150050-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 29, 2009
• Sequence Number: 50
• Publication Date: November 20, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Secret
Economic Intelligence Weekly
Secret
CIA No. 8229/74
20 November 1974
Copy N! 423
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ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
20 November 1974
Developed Countries: Export Volume Slumps . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
End of Guarantees Should Depress Sterling
Sugar Prices: Spiral Continues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Israel: A Strained Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
US-Soviet Trade: Shifting Gears . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Notes, Publication of Interest, Statistics
Exports by the Seven Major Developed Countries declined 1% in real terms
during the third quarter as a result of the worldwide economic downturn. Exports
probably will continue to decline in the months ahead despite growth in sales
to OPEC countries and the USSR.
The Thirtieth Annual Session of the GATT Contracting Parties in Geneva this
week is expected to accomplish little more than a review of recent developments
in world trade. LDC representatives will plead for greater preferential treatment
in view of declining prices for their products and rising import costs. Developed
country delegations will concentrate on preparing for January's Trade Negotiations
Committee meeting, which is expected to revive movement in the Multilateral Trade
Negotiations.
The Continued Soviet Buying Spree in the West promises to be a mixed
blessing. Soviet contracts for Western plant and equipment, already at a record
$3 billion this year, will bolster depressed capital goods industries. Additional
purchases of corn, wheat, and sugar, however, will strain already tight commodity
markets.
Note: Comments and queries regarding the Economic Intelligence Weekly are welcomed. They may be directed
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The World Food Conference ended with agreement only on general goals.
A World Food Council has been established to deal with the recommendations
of the 130-ration conference. Key recommendations include
? a food aid program of at least 10 million tons of grain a year,
? an internationally coordinated system of national grain reserves,
? an international agricultural development fund, and
? a global information and early warning system on food and agriculture.
An Extended US Coal Strike would have a serious impact on many foreign
purchasers. Coal stocks of world steel producers are low after several years of high
steel output; the Canadian steel industry would be the first to be affected. Stocks
held by utilities in Western Europe have been drawn down to reduce oil
consumption.
Currency Speculation last week centered around the remark by West German
Chancellor Schmidt that lie would not object to an appreciation of the mark. This
statement, coupled with an apparent absence of heavy central bank support, led
to substantial speculation against the dollar. The traditionally strong Deutschmark
and Swiss franc appreciated 4.7% and 7.6%, respectively.
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The seven major indus-
trial countries are encounter-
ing growing weakness in ex-
port demand on top of the
sluggishness in domestic dc-
mand. In the third quarter of
1974, their combined export
volume declined by 1%, or at
an annual rate of 4%. Export
performance would have been
even more dismal if the drop
in sales among the seven had
not been offset by increases in
sales elsewhere.
The third-quarter trend
contrasts sharply with the
change in the first quarter,
when exports by the seven
countries rose at an annual
rate of 19%. During the first
quarter, their trade with one
another remained buoyant,
partly because automobile
manufacturers were building
up inventories. By the second
Developed Countries*:
Change in Volume
of Exports and Imports
Percent Change over Previous Quarter
Seasonally Adjusted
-1.7
l II Ill IV 1
1973 1974
'Canada. France, Italy. Japan, the United Kingdom,
the United States, and West Germany.
quarter, trade among the seven
rest of' the world nevertheless permitted a moderate rise in their total exports.
OPEC countries now are providing the main stimulus to foreign sales. Because
economic slowdown and payments deficits are hitting the smaller OECD countries as
well, their imports from the seven dropped markedly in the third quarter. Sales to
the rest of the world slowed as the financial problems of non-oil LDCs worsened.
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Developed Countries:
Change in Volume of Exports
and Imports, by Country
Percent Change over Previous Quarter
Seasonally Adjusted
United Statcs Italy
4.3
Exports
1.4 1.7 1.1
0.1
r
France
17.2
Canada
3.3
1
1974
504642 11.14
4
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1
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Developed Countries) : Change in Volume of Exports,
by Destination
Change over Previous Quarter
Seasonally Adjusted
Share of Exports
19741
197411
1974111
1973
Total exports
4.4
1.5
-1.0
100.0
To developed countries
7.2
-0.1
-4.7
39.5
To smaller OECD countries
4.4
3.6
-4.6
30.8
To OPEC countries
12.1
13.4
14.0
3.9
To non-OPEC LDCs and
Communist countries
3.0
4.6
2.0
25.8
1. Canada, France, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, and West Germany.
Some countries have been hit harder than others. The sharp drop in Canadian
export volume reflects a cutback in oil shipments as well as the slowdown in the US
economy. France, West Germany, and the United Kingdom have suffered from a
broad decline in demand for intermediate and manufactured goods. Japan has kept
sales growing through an all-out export drive, but its efforts met with diminished
success in the third quarter. Italy's remarkable export performance in the third
quarter resulted from a combination of a 7% depreciation of the lira, an export
promotion drive, and an austerity program that will be difficult to sustain.
The implications of a continued decline in export volume are ominous. The low
rate of economic growth in major industrial countries forecast for the year ending in
June 1975 is predicated on a 6%/% annual rise in export volume. Continuation of
third-quarter export trends would further dampen chances for an economic recovery
in the months ahead.
Note: Changes in the physical volume of trade for each of the seven countries
were calculated by taking officially reported value series and adjusting them by
export and import price indexes.
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 END OF GUARANTEES SHOULD DEPRESS STERLING
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London's decision to eliminate exchange-rate guarantees for official holdings
of sterling at yearend will tend to weaken the pound. Although oil producers will
be less willing than before to accumulate sterling, they are unlikely to start a rapid
sell-off of present holdings. The oil producers are conservative financial managers
and stand to lose a great deal if the pound plummets. They have added roughly
$4 billion so far this year to their sierlinn assets, which now amount to about
$6 billion.
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The guarantees cover less than $1.4 billion of OPEC members' sterling assets --
basically investments made before the recent surge in oil revenues. These guar,!ntecs
nonetheless are important psychologically because of the implied British
commitment to maintaining the value of the pound. The pound is overvalued in
terms of the trade competitiveness of British industry. The exchange rate for sterling
has been maintained this year in part because of the willingness of oil producers
to invest a substantial part of their surplus earnings in sterling denominated assets.
If the oil producers anticipate that the pound is headed down and stop accumulating
sterling, the prophecy could easily become self-fulfilling. One Middle East country
apparently has already decided to get out of sterling in an orderly nmanner.
A gre.dual depreciation of sterling accompanied by reduced OPEC investment
probably would not present much of a problem for the United Kingdom in the
short run. Although part of the British trade deficit would no longer be financed
automatically by the reflow of oil money, Britain already has credit sufficient to
cover the deficit through most of 1975. A lack of investment alternatives aside
from the already heavily utilized dollar will tend to limit the switch from sterling
as will attractive interest rates for sterling assets.
Scare psychology triggered by adverse market reports in the past four weeks
has sent world sugar prices soaring another 50`h -- to 61 cents a pound f.o.b.
Caribbean ports, five tines the 31 December 1973 level.
? Reports from the EC, the USSR, and Eastern Europe indicate that their
combined harvests in the crop year ending 31 August 1975 could drop
2 million t ms, or 8%.
? The poor harvest outlook could bring the USSR into the world market
and is forcing the EC countries to greatly increase purchases for 1975
delivery.
? Poland has suspended sugar shipments, and the Philippines also has held
up sales, ostensibly to assess damage from recent typhoons.
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We believe that the market has overreacted to these reports. Nevertheless,
they point to substantially increased pressure during the coming year on the 20%
of world sugar supplies that enters Free World trade. The combined EC and Soviet
purchases, which could exceed 1 million tons in 1975, compared with an estimated
300,000 tons in 1974, would add 5`%u-7'%, to normal world market demand. At
the same time, the Polish withdrawal will mean a slight reduction in world market
supply in 1975. We believe the Philippine move was intended only to drive up
prices and will soon be canceled.
The tight sugar market has been several years in the making. Rising LDC
demand, particularly in Asia, helped to push up world prices from the average
of 3 cents a pound for 1964-70 to 10 cents in 1973. Having been burned by
overexpanding production following the 1963 sugar boom, the main exporting
countries except for Brazil responded slowly to subsequent price increases. Thus,
world production remained below consumption for four consecutive years. By the
end of the 1973/74 crop year (31 August), the ratio of total world stocks to
annual consumption had slipped to I8.5'%o -- well below the 251/0 level desired for
market stability.
The price rise of the last tour weeks, coupled with the worsening recession,
probably will induce consumers to curb purchases enough to put substantial
downward pressure on prices. Prices could drop in the second quarter of 1975
even if the EC and USSR go ahead with the presently expected purchases.
Net Sugar Imports from the World Markets
Million Tons, Raw Value
Total
16.3
16.9
16.4
Asia
5.6
6.0
6.0
Africa
1.6
1.6
1.6
USSR
0.8
1.0
Negl.
Canada
1.0
1.0
1.0
Europe
1.7
1.9
1.8
Of which:
EC2
0.4
0.3
0.3
United States
5.0
4.8
5.5
Other
0.6
0.6
0.5
1. Estimated.
2. Including the United Kingdom.
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The sugar market is sensitive to small changes or rumors of changes in supply.
Because rumor has played a leading role in the price advances of the past four
weeks, we remain uncertain as to the timing and size of the anticipated drop in
prices. In any case, the market will continue tight in 1975. Prices seem unlikely
to drop belc,w the range of 25 to 35 cent., required to maintain supplies in view
of inflated production costs and high prices for competing crops.
ISRAEL: A STRAINED ECONOMY
The partial mobilization of Israeli reservists will heighten strains on an
economy already staggering under a heavy arms burden.
The mobilization of up to 10,000 reservists from the labor-slice t economy
follows closely the announcement of new austerity measures. Massive arms
purchases have placed Israel's foreign exchange reserves under severe pressure.
Defense imports this year are likely to total $2.4 billion, compared with $500
million to $600 million in pre-war years. Although the United States is covering
the bulk of Israeli arms imports with official aid, the government apparently has
purchased up to $400 million in arms under commercial contracts.
The austerity package - including a devaluation of the Israeli pound, a
reduction in food subsidies, and an increase in taxes to cut consumption - aims
mainly at slowing the foreign currency drain. Last July the government implemented
measures to curb inflation and trim nonessential budget outlays. A third economic
package that will concentrate on wage, income, and tax reforms has yet to be
announced.
Finance Ministry officials said the new economic program was made imperative
by the large decline in foreign exchange reserves. According to Israck officials,
the current account deficit has soared to $3.5 billion this year from a deficit of
only $1 billion before the war. At the end of September, official reserves stood
at $1 billion, a drop of $800 million since the beginning of the year. The new
measures are expected to save $700 million in foreign exchange.
The new measures will surely aggravate inflation, which has climbed to 140%
rate since the war. The reduction in food subsidies by itself has caused the consumer
price index to jump 17% - some officials are speculating that prices could rise
as much as 50Io within a year.
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territories
The success of the economic program depends vitally on whether the 1-Itstadrut
labor federation goes along with the government's desire to hold the line on wages
in upcoming negotiations. The position of Prime Minister Rabin was buttressed
when the Knesset approved the economic package. Public reaction has moderated
in recent clays as attention has shifted from economic problems to the tense military
situation on the border w;th Syria and deteriorating security in the occupied
US-SOVIET TRADE: SHIFTING GEARS
The rapid growth of US-Soviet trade in recent years has been marked by
the sale of' American grain and machinery in an atmosphere of detente. In coming
years, expansion of' trade will depend largely on the degree of US participation
in Soviet economic development projects, especially in Siberia.
Recent Growth
In two short years US-Soviet trade shot up from $219 million (1971) to
$1.4 billion (1973). Soviet purchases of grain and machinery dominated the growth,
grain alone :'ccounting for 70% of US exports in 1973. As for imports, the United
States bought substantial quantities of platinunrgroup metals from the USSR, and
oil became an important purchase for the first time.
Because of a sharp decline in deliveries of grain, US exports to the USSR
will fall in 1974. Imports probably will double, however, because of increased
purchases of oil, platinum-group metals, and nickel. The roughly $1 billion US
surplus in 1973 will be reduced to $200 million to $300 million in 1974.
1975 and Beyond
US exports are expected to rebound in 1975. About $300 million in grain
deliveries are already scheduled, and the Soviets could place additional orders in
the fall of 1975. As a result of the large number of new Soviet contracts, deliveries
of machinery in 1975 could climb to $400 million to $500 million. US imports
from the USSR may also increase, particularly if recent trends in imports of oil
and metals are sustained. The granting of MFN would also stimulate imports,
especially of diamonds, although the initial effect would be S.nall. Whatever the
rise in US imports, the USSR will have no difficulty in paying for its purchases,
given the dramatic turnaround in its hard currency trade balance.
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US-USSR Trade
1971-741
Million US $
1971
1972
1973
19742
US exports
162
547
1,187
600-7011
Grain
14
369
837
300
Soybeans
....
52
67
....
Machinery and transport equipment
63
62
204
200-300
Chemicals
38
21
17
30
Iron and steel
2
....
14
10
Other
45
43
48
60
US imports
57
96
215
400
Oil and oil products
1
7
76
150
Platinum group metals
20
45
75
150
Diamonds and other precious stones
11
13
17
15
Chrome ore
11
14
6
10
Nonferrous base metals
2
2
18
45
Other
12
15
22
30
Net exports
105
451
972
200-300
US Department of Commerce statistics, except for 1974 estimates, by CIA.
Estimated.
The current suspension of Eximbank credit thus far has not af'f'ected the level
of US-Soviet trade. Indeed, the Soviets have concluded two major contracts with
US firms since the suspension, including a $100 million cash purchase of
International Harvester earthmoving equipment. Delays are being encountered,
however, in placing a $35 million contract for the Cheboksary Tractor Plant and
in concluding an agreement on the Yakutsk oil exploration project. So far in 1974
US firms have signed almost $700 million in equipment contracts with the USSR
out of a total of $3 billion placed with Western t7rnls. Both are record totals.
The major potential for growth in US-Soviet trade lies in the exports and
imports generated by large Soviet development projects, principally in Siberia. Japan
and West Germany will supply most of the $3-1/2 billion in equipment and
technology for coal, timber, and infrastructure projects already begun or negotiated.
At least $10 billion in foreign investment over the next few years will be needed
for proposed projects involving oil, LNG, and nonferrous metals. US firms
negotiating on some of these projects are Gulf (Sakhalin offshore oil); Texas
Eastern, El Paso, Tenneco, and Brown and Root (LNG); and Kaiser (aluminum).
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25X1
Saudis, West Germans Agree on Economic Commission
on the United States. Saudi oil supplies for West Germany and Saudi investments
in the FRG economy appear to be beyond the purview of the commission.
A Saudi-West German economic cooperation commission to focus on FRG
technical assistance was agreed to last week during a visit to Riyadh by West German
officials. The joust commission will boost West German chances to participate in
the $60 billion 1975-80 Saudi development plan. For their part, the Saudis would
gain access to German economic and industrial expertise, diluting their dependence
Arab League to Speed Up African Aid
At the recent summit in Rabat, the Arab League began making amends for
its neglect of African needs by agreeing to
? renew the original capital of the Arab Economic Aid Fund for Africa
to maintain available funds at $200 million,
? increase the capitalization of the Arab Fund for Technical Assistance
for Africa from $15 million to $25 million,
? establish quickly an Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa,
to be located in Khartoum, with a minimum capital of $230 million,
? continue disbursements of $80 million in OAPEC funds to the six poorest
Arab states, which include three African nations
French and US Computer Firms to Merge?
The French government is considering a merger of the French computer firm
Compagnie International pour l'Informatique (CII) with the US-controlled
Honeywell Bull, according to CII sources. A successful merger could salvage
financially troubled CII and strengthen the ability of Unidata - a consortium of
CII, Siemens (West Germany), and Philips (Netherlands) -- to compete with US
computer firms in the West European market.
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Venezuela: Financing Higher Coffee Prices
A Venezuelan offer of $80 million to finance coffee stockpiling by several
Central American countries is the first use of oil revenues to boost prices of other
primary commodities. Past cooperative efforts among coffee exporters to withhold
coffee have foundered partly because small exporters could not afford to sacrifice
current export income.
Iron Ore Exporters in Disarray
Australia was able, with the support of Brazil, to defuse a drive led by Algeria
and Peru last week to establish an iron ore producers' cartel. Canberra insisted
on representation of the views of importing countries at the recent meeting of
producers in Geneva. India and Venezuela -- early proponents of a cartel - came
out in favor of a looser, OPEC-like organization. The 13 nations agreed to meet
in New Delhi in January to hammer out a proposal to be considered at a
ministerial-level meeting in the spring.
The Economic Situation in South Vietnam, October 1974
(ER IR 74-28, October 1974,
This month's report discusses (1) the relative calm in Saigon markets despite
sporadic political unrest, (2) price trends outside Saigon, (3) a falloff in export
receipts, (4) case studies of export development, (5) unemployment relief in the
Saigon area, and (6) a promising oil discovery.
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INTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
GNP' WHOLESALE PRICES
Constant Market Prices Average Annual
Industrial Average Annual
Growth Role Since Growth Rele Since
Percent Change Percent Change
Latest from Previous 1 Year Previous Latest from Previous I Year 3 Months
Quarter Quarter 1970 Earlier Quarter Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
United States
74 111
-0.5
3.2
-2.2
-2.1 United States
Oct 74
1.2
9.9
28.2
19.0
Japan
7411
0.6
5.7
-3.3
2.4 Japan
Oct 74
0.4
11.0
28.7
8.6
West Germany
74 11
- 0.7
3.1
1,1
- 2.9 West Germany
Sep 74
0.2
8.8
14.6
6.9
France
73 IV
1.7
-3,6
6.0
7.0 France
Sep 74
-1.0
11.8
27.9
7.1
United Kingdom
74 111
1.0
2.7
0.6
4.2 United Kingdom
Sep 74
1.5
11.5
25.7
19.9
Italy
73 IV
1.9
3.7
5.3
7.7 Italy
Aug 74
0.5
16.1
45.9
23.5
Canada
74 11
0
5.7
4.9
Canads
Jul 74
2.0
11.2
24.6
12.2
Average Annual
Growth Rare Since
e .?
?erconl Chan
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
latest
g
Iron Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Percent Change
Latest from Previous I Y
3
Month
Month 1970 Earlier Earlier ??
ear
Months
United States
Oct 74
I -0.8
I 3.8
-1.7
-1.6
United States
Month
Sep 74
Month
197U
6.6
Earlier
12.1
Earlier
13.7
Japan
Sep 74
0.2
-0.9
-13.5
Japan
Sep 74
11.7
23.8
19.1
West Germany
Aug 74
0
-3.8
-7.9
West Germany
Oct 74
8.1
7.1
4.1
France
Aug 74
0
4.1
12.4
France
Sep 74
8.3
14.7
13.3
United Kingdom
Sep 74
-1.8
-1.6
4.1
United Kingdom
Sep 74
10.4
17.1
8.7
Italy
Sep 74
1.7
-1.6
-13.4
Italy
Sep 74
10.9
24.6
35.8
Canada
Aug 74
0.4
5.3
-3.6
Canada
Sep 74
6.7
10.9
9.7
RETAIL SALES'
Current Prices Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Avorage Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latest from Previous I Year 3 Months
Percent Change
Latest tram Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier''
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier ??
United States
Oct 74 I
-0.4 I
9.4
6.8
9.3
Unit
ed States
Oct 74 1
0.4
I 5.8
5.7
2
2
Japan
Jun 74
2.7
13.4
18.4
6.2
Japa
n
Jul 74
-2.9
16
7
13.0
.
15
0
W9st Germany
Jul 74
5.9
9.3
10.0
7.0
Wes
t German
y
Aug 74
0.8
.
9.1
9.6
.
10
9
France
May 74
6.2
8.5
18.1
1.3
Fran
ce
Jun 74
1.4
12.6
8.7
.
18.2
United Kingdom
Aug 74
2.8
12.8
17.8
24.9
Unit
ed Kingdo
m
Sep 74
-0.3
8.3
1.9
5.0
Italy
Jun 74
6.6
17.1
31.0
1.7
Italy
Jan 74
0.1
20.6
20.5
19.6
Canada
Aug 74
2.7
12.9
19.4
24.9
Cana
da
Sep 74
-0.7
11.8
6.6
-6.1
Representative Rates
1 Year 3 Months I Month
Latest Date Earlier Earlier Earlier
United States
Dealer-placed finance paper
Nov
6
9.00
7.50
11.68 1
10.13
Japan
Call money
Oct 23
12.50
8.75
13.50
13.00
West Germany
Interbank 10111110 Months)
Nnv
6
9.43
14.19
9.50
9.66
France
Call money
Oct
9
13.13
11.13
14.00
13.75
United Kingdom
Sterling interbank loan (3 ma)
Nov
6
11.48
12.44
12.70
11.63
iissenally adjusted.
''
Canada
Finance paper
Nov
6
10.65
9.13
11.63
11.23
Avenge for latest 3 menthe compared
with overlie for previous 3 months
Euro?Dollars
Three-month deposits
Nov
8
10.00
9.39
13.19
11.64
.
20 November 1974
Office of Economic Research/CIA
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EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
EXPORTS'
f.o.b.
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
IMPORTS'
f.o.b.
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Sep 74
Oct 74
Sep 74
Sep 74
Oct 74
Sep 74
Sep 74
Million US $
Million US S 1074 1973
1 0,280 1 71.575 1 60,428
5,299
7,220
4,007
3,081
2,659
2,908
44,157
65,806
34,305
29,693
21,689
23,829
29,036
48,788
26,050
23,219
15,589
18,445
Latest Month
Million US S
Million its S 1974 1073
Sep 74 8,520 73,922 50,491
Oct 7 4 4,416 43,891 25,811
Sep 74 5,354 47,760 37,069
Sep 74 4,221 37,397 25,709
Oct 74 4,105 39,709 27,022
Sep 74 3.078 21,412 17,584
Sep 74 2,799 23,389 18.863
TRADE BALANCE'
f.o.b./f.o.b.
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Percent
Change
41.9
62.1
34.9
27.3
27.0
39.1
29.2
Percent
Change
4d,4
70.0
28.8
45.5
43.8
55.9
38.1
Million US $ 1974 1973 hange
Sep 74 -233 -2,347 -63 C -2,284
Oct 74 882 266 3,225 -2,959
Sep 74 1.886 18,046 11,899 6,347
Sep 74 -214 -3,092 1,241 -4,333
Oct 74 -1,023 -10,016 -4,403 -5,813
Sep 74 -418 -5,722 -1,995 -3,735
Sep 74 9 441 1,582 -1,142
BASIC BALANCE"
Current and Long-Term-Capital Transactions
Latest Period Cumulative (Million US $)
Million US $ 1974 1973 Change
United States'
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
74 II
Oct 74
Sep 74
73 IV
74 II
74 I
74 II
-2,184
-6,978
6,774
-2,472
-868
-872
-6
1,210
-1.691
-1.716
NA.
-2.083
-1.104
-808
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
400
503
-475
-1,297
- 2,037
-445
-8,869
5,058
NA.
-2,951
-2.037
-613
1 Year
End of Billion US $ Jun 1970 Earlier
Sep 74 15.9 14.5 12.9
Oct 74 135 41 14.0
Oct 74 33.7 8.8 35.0
Sep 74 8.5 4.4 11.2
Oct 74 7.5 2.8 6.8
Sep 74 7.6 4.7 6.5
Oct 74 5.8 4.3 5.8
'Seasonally adjusted.
"Converted into US dollars at current market rates of exchange.
20 November 1974
3 Months
Earlier
14.9
13.2
33.9
8.2
6.7
5.3
6.0
EXPORT PRICES
US$
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
EXPORT PRICES
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
IMPORT PRICES
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Percent Chnngr7
latest front previous
Month Month
Sep 74 I 0.7 I
Sep 74
Aug 74
Jun 74
Jul 74
Jul 74
Jul 74
-0.9
-0.7
2.5
1.5
4.8
0.7
EXCHANGE RATES Spot Rate
As of 15 Nov 74
Japanlvenl
West Germany (Martk)che
France (Franc) (Pound
United Kingdom Sterling)
Italy (Lira)
Canada )Dollar)
US S
Per Unit
0.0033
0.4015
0.2134
2.3130
0.0015
1.0119
18 Dec
1971
2.65
29.39
8.38
-11.23
-12.50
1.41
Dec 66
20.80
59.71
5.70
-17.11
-6.00
9.70
TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATESS**
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Dec 66
-14.90
12.10
33.77
-17.94
-37.59
-29.77
7.18
18 Dec
1971
-5.58
-1.41
18.80
-4.50
-23.18
-28.35
0.59
19 Mar
1973
1.03
-13.23
11.51
-6.96
-8.68
-21.36
2.23
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
1970
12.8
15.9
14.8
14.7
13.5
14.6
14.3
1 Year
Earlier
29.9
23.7
13.3
11.5
25.1
28.6
41.5
3 Months
Earlier
30.7
-3.9
-3.0
33.5
29.5
35.7
9.4
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
1 Year
Earlier
29.9
39.7
22.6
28.5
33.2
42.8
38.3
11.0
5.8
11.1
13.6
15.4
12.4
3 Months
Earlier
30.7
23.8
24.8
42.5
29.6
43.4
13.5
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
I Year
Earlier
54.3
75.6
35.3
61.5
55.9
68.5
32.5
1970
19.4
16.8
7.5
15.6
21.3
24.8
11.6
3 Months
Earlier
22.0
4.3
23.0
37.0
18.3
7.3
39.7
8 Nov
1974
-0.08
2.40
-0.19
-1.07
0.27
0.09
8 Nov
1974
-0.38
-0.33
1.79
-1.40
-1.83
-0.73
tl C!
'''Weighting is based on each listed country's trade with 16 other industrialized
countries to reflect the competitive impact of exchange-rate variations
along the major currencies.
Percent Change
Latest train Previous
III 4 Month 1970
Mon7
P I 0.7 I 12.8
Sep 74
Aug 74
Jun 74
Jul 74
Jul 74
Jul 74
-0.4
2.0
3.3
1.0
3.9
1.7
Percent Change
Latest train Previous
Month Month
Sep 74
Sep 74
Aug /4
Jun 74
Jul 74
Jul 74
Jul 74
-0.2
-0.5
3.1
0
0.5
-2.4
-1.8
19 Mar
1973
-12.36
13.39
-3.18
-6.01
-14.97
1.42
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85TOO875RO01500150050-1
 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150050-1
METAL PRICES
(Monthly Average Price)
c 100
0
0
a
80
rn
D
o 350
a
a. 300
0
L.unrlun MU1,1I
i:xcll;,ndr. *
40 1`18 Nov
Jul
1972 73 74
Jul
1972 73
1.18 Nov
1---1------
150 Jul
1972 73 74
COMMODITIES
Jul
1972 73
18 Nov
Jul
1972 73
125 rL-__L---- -
Jul
1972 73
Cash
Week Ago
Copper-LME (C per pound)
66.1
66.5
Copper-US (C per pound)
7 5.6
75.6
Lead-LME (C per pound)
23.9
24.2
Lead- US (C per pound)
24.5
24.5
Zinc-LME (C per pound)
35.4
35.9
Zinc-US (C per pound)
38.0
38.0
Tin-LME (C per pound)
343.6
335.8
Tin-US (C per pound)
384.0
373.2
Steel scrap ($ per long ton)
N.A.
107.8
Platinum?US dealer ($ per troy ounce)
176.5
192.5
Platinum-US producer (S per troy ounce)
190.0
190.0
Prices
Oct 74
Nov 73
Average
Average
63.4
101.1
77.5
59.5
24.2
21.7
24.5
16.5
37.4
72.3
38.0
20.4
333.4
250.0
365.0
262.4
119.0
79.3
183.1
158.9
190.0
158.0
?.4ppro:rimates world market price frequently used by major world producers and Traders,
although only small quantities of these metals are actually traded on the LME.
"Producers' price, covers most primary metals sold in the United States.
t Quoted on New York market. tf Composite price for Chicago, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh.
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150050-1
 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150050-1
AGRICULTURAL PRICES
(Monthly Average Price)
SOYBEANS
o"-.L-. ,.18Nov_
Jul
1972 73
0 L 1 I_ 1.18Nnv_
Jul
1972 73 74
L_- ~-------.1- 1.18 Nov
Jul
1972 73 74
for 16 food commodities which enter Intematlonal
trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-year moving
averages of imports into industrialized countries.
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85TOO875RO01 500150050-1
COMMODITIES
18 Nov Week Oct 74 Nov 73
Ago Average Average
Wheat-Kansas City #2 Hard Winter ($ per bushel) 4.60 5.05 4.96 4.78
Corn-Chicago #2 Yellow ($ per bushel) 3.44 3.65 3.71 2.50
Soybeans-Chicago # 1 Yellow ($ per bushel) 7.38 8.21 8.36 5.65
Sugar-World Raw New York #11 (C per pound) 61.00 56.50 39.60 10.02
Cotton-Memphis 17($ per pound) 0.3705 0.4335 0.4640 0.6310